Summary of Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 3692.HK - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Market Cap**: RMB 90,484 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$16.22 - **Price Target**: HK$24.00, representing a 48% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Takeaways Sales and Financial Performance - Sales promotional activities have significantly recovered from the lows experienced in late 2023, with management maintaining a double-digit sales growth target for fiscal year 2024 (F24) [1][1][1] - A dividend payout of over 35% is projected for 2024, with potential sustainability into 2025 [1][1][1] Product and Pipeline Updates - **Ameile**: Contract extended with an approximate 8% price reduction [2][2][2] - **Loxenatide**: Experienced a higher price cut, referencing the price for semaglutide; noted for its high potency and low side effects for diabetes, but not suitable for obesity [2][2][2] - **Pipeline Highlights**: - **HS-20093 (B7H3 ADC)**: Granted two Breakthrough Therapy Designations (BTDs) for second-line osteosarcoma and relapsed/refractory small cell lung cancer (r/r SCLC); pivotal trials to start in Q4 2025 [3][3][3] - **HS-20089 (B7H4 ADC)**: Ongoing Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancers in China; Phase 1 data expected in 2025 with pivotal trials planned for Q4 2025 [3][3][3] - **HS-10374 (TYK2)**: In Phase 3 for psoriasis [3][3][3] - **HS-20094 (GIP/GLP-1R)**: In Phase 3 for overweight, aiming for a launch in 2027 [3][3][3] - **HS-10501 (oral GLP-1R)**: Recently entered Phase 1 for overweight [3][3][3] Financial Metrics - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December 2023 - **Revenue (Rmb million)**: - 2023: 10,104 - 2024e: 12,149 - 2025e: 12,502 - 2026e: 14,782 [5][5][5] - **EPS (Rmb)**: - 2023: 0.54 - 2024e: 0.68 - 2025e: 0.58 - 2026e: 0.70 [5][5][5] - **EBITDA (Rmb million)**: - 2023: 3,101 - 2024e: 4,014 - 2025e: 3,036 - 2026e: 3,655 [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - The price target is derived using a discounted cash flow methodology, assuming a WACC of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [8][8][8] Risks Upside Risks - Earlier-than-expected product launches [10][10][10] - Increased pace of industry growth [10][10][10] Downside Risks - Continued industry slowdown and significant price cuts [10][10][10] - Unexpected competition in central nervous system (CNS) and oncology sectors [10][10][10] - Major pipeline failures [10][10][10] Conclusion Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd is positioned for growth with a strong sales recovery and a robust pipeline of products. The company maintains an attractive outlook with a significant upside potential in its stock price, supported by strategic product developments and a solid financial foundation. However, potential risks from market dynamics and competition should be monitored closely.

Summary of China Healthcare 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Report Date**: January 2025 - **Research Firm**: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - The healthcare sector in China is navigating through macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on achieving certainty amidst these challenges [6][58] Government Support and Policy Changes - The Basic Medical Insurance (BMI) fund is projected to remain balanced in 2024, alleviating concerns over healthcare spending [6] - Potential fiscal stimulus could enhance BMI funding and support public hospitals [8] - A Medical Insurance Law may be passed in 2025, which could define the government's role in BMI funding [8] Financial Performance and Trends - The accumulated surplus in the BMI pooling account for FY24 is expected to exceed that of FY23, indicating a positive trend in healthcare funding [8] - The growth rate of BMI pooling account income and expenditure is both at 8.9% year-on-year from January to October 2024 [8] Drug Pricing and Innovation - The average price cut from the 10th National Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) is estimated to be between 70-75%, indicating increased competition in the pharmaceutical market [15] - Innovative drugs are being added to the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) at an accelerated pace, with a negotiation success rate exceeding 90% [15] Market Dynamics - The healthcare market is seeing a shift towards commercial healthcare insurance (CHI) as a supplement to government funding, with expectations of strong policy support [8] - The demand for innovative drugs remains robust, with a projected growth of 11% year-on-year in 1H24 [70] Challenges and Risks - The healthcare sector is facing challenges from geopolitical uncertainties and the lingering effects of anti-corruption measures, which have impacted surgery numbers and overall healthcare spending [58] - The funding environment for healthcare venture capital and private equity remains under pressure, with a decline in funding observed in 2024 [59] Future Growth Potential - The healthcare sector's market capitalization in China is significantly lower compared to the EU and US, suggesting substantial room for growth [73] - The aging population and chronic disease management are expected to drive long-term healthcare demand, supported by government initiatives [72] Investment Sentiment - Foreign ownership in the China healthcare sector has declined to approximately 3.8% of the total market cap, indicating a cautious investment environment [55] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery in healthcare IPOs and increased interest in listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [63] Additional Important Insights - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) into chronic disease management is being promoted by the National Health Commission (NHC) [72] - The healthcare sector's contribution to China's total stock market cap is around 5%, which is low compared to other countries, indicating potential for future growth [76] This comprehensive overview highlights the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare industry, emphasizing the interplay between government policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:31 PM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) From To Price Target HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Base Case HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) has been updated. Reason for change In 2024, Hainan was the major drag on China's travel retail market with offline duty- free (DF) sal ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Insurance Sector 2025 outlook: weathering the challenges VNB growth to moderate; P&C underwriting profit to recover Following a surprisingly strong 2024 (listed insurers' VNB: +32%, UBS-e), we expect VNB growth to moderate in 2025. For Q1, we expect jumpstart sales performance to diverge across insurers. For the rest of year, while life insurance sales would continue to benefit from the savings glut, we see multiple challenges t ...

Summary of China Agriculture and Dairy Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Agriculture and Dairy Sector - **Date**: January 6, 2025 Key Points Pet Food Segment - **Growth Rate**: The pet food market grew by 8.5% YoY in 2024, indicating strong resilience despite economic slowdown [3][20] - **Market Size**: The total pet industry reached Rmb 300 billion in 2024, with pet food accounting for over 50% of total spending [3][23] - **Demographic Trends**: Changes such as an aging population and declining birth rates are expected to increase pet ownership [3][39] - **Brand Performance**: Domestic brands are outperforming foreign brands, with rising consumer confidence in local products [3][40] Dairy Segment - **Raw Milk Prices**: A more balanced supply-demand scenario is anticipated in H225 due to a contraction in cow herds and depressed prices [2][5] - **Sales Decline**: Retail value of drinking milk products fell by 2% in 2024, with fresh milk experiencing a 7% decline [62][65] - **Capacity Contraction**: Sow capacity has contracted over 4% since Q124, with many upstream farming groups facing cash flow issues [5][71] Hog Segment - **Price Forecast**: Hog prices are expected to decline by 11% to Rmb 15/kg in 2025, driven by supply recovery and weakening demand [4][83] - **Production Trends**: The number of reproductive sows has started to rebound, indicating improved productivity [94][96] - **Profitability Concerns**: Breeding profits are projected to decrease, with average profits per head expected to drop from Rmb 200-250 to Rmb 150 in future cycles [139] Seed Segment - **Oversupply Issues**: There is an oversupply of hybrid corn seeds, with an inventory-to-sales ratio of 75% in 2024 [147] - **GMO Promotion**: The penetration rate of genetically modified organisms (GMO) is expected to rise from 2% in 2024 to 10% in 2025 [4][154] Stock Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - **Pet Food**: Gambol and China Pet Foods are favored due to robust sales growth [6] - **Dairy**: Mengniu and Yili are recommended based on expected earnings improvement [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Muyuan and Wens are viewed negatively due to anticipated hog price downcycle [6] Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: Over 90% of pet owners consider their pets as family members or friends, indicating a strong emotional bond [30] - **Market Dynamics**: The pet food exports to the US grew by 25% YoY in early 2024, reflecting a recovery in overseas demand [56] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and future outlooks within the agriculture and dairy sectors in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **oil and gas industry**, specifically analyzing the **Brent crude oil market** and **non-OPEC supply dynamics** for 2025 and beyond [6][28][39]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Market Surplus**: A surplus of approximately **0.7 million barrels per day (mb/d)** is expected in 2025, which will likely keep Brent prices around **$70 per barrel** [6][72]. - **Oil Demand Growth**: Projected oil demand growth for 2025 is around **1.0 mb/d**, which is at the lower end of the consensus range. Factors affecting this include below-trend global GDP growth, slowing population growth, and pressure on demand from China [6][12]. - **Non-OPEC Supply Increase**: Non-OPEC supply is expected to re-accelerate to **1.4 mb/d** in 2025, up from **0.9 mb/d** in 2024, driven by new projects in various countries [6][28]. - **OPEC Production Growth**: OPEC production is anticipated to grow by only **0.3 mb/d** in 2025, which includes **0.1 mb/d** from natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensate [6][72]. - **Market Risks**: Key uncertainties include potential extensions of OPEC cuts, possible lower production from Iran, and risks to demand from tariffs [6][72]. Demand Dynamics - **Global Seaborne Energy Imports**: Growth in global seaborne energy imports halted in 2024, with a notable decline in crude import demand in Europe [7]. - **China's Demand Decline**: China's oil demand has decreased year-on-year for the past seven months, which is significant as China has historically accounted for half of global oil demand growth [15]. - **Refined Products Demand**: Demand for refined products is expected to grow by approximately **600 kb/d** year-on-year in 2025, but the market is currently trading in a weak seasonal period [12][14]. Non-OPEC Supply Insights - **Supply Growth Stagnation**: Non-OPEC supply has experienced stagnation over the last 12 months after a significant acceleration post-2022 price spikes [21][22]. - **Production Forecasts**: For 2025, consensus estimates suggest non-OPEC crude and condensate supply will re-accelerate to about **1.2 mb/d** [28][36]. - **Investment Trends**: Capital expenditures (capex) in the oil sector have recovered to over **$500 billion**, with attractive internal rates of return (IRRs) projected for upcoming projects [39][42]. OPEC Supply Dynamics - **Production Cuts**: OPEC has significantly lowered its future production plans, with output expected to grow again from April 2025 onwards [47][54]. - **Adherence to Quotas**: Various OPEC countries are showing differing levels of adherence to their production quotas, impacting overall supply [48][51]. Additional Important Insights - **Break-even Prices**: The median break-even oil price in US shale remains below **$50 per barrel**, indicating a wide distribution of costs among producers [45]. - **Market Balance**: The total oil liquids balance indicates a **0.7 mb/d surplus** in 2025, with potential for further tightening if OPEC+ cuts are extended [72]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market, demand dynamics, and supply forecasts, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations within the industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **China government bonds (CGBs)** and the broader **fixed income market** in China for 2025 Core Insights and Arguments - **Performance of CGBs**: CGBs delivered nearly **2% returns** in December, surprising many investors who were underweight in CGBs by an average of **3 percentage points** at the end of November [2][7] - **PBoC's Role**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been a significant buyer of CGBs, purchasing **RMB1 trillion** from August to December, absorbing **40%** of net CGB supply during this period [3][4] - **Future Purchases**: The PBoC is expected to purchase a minimum of **RMB200 billion** of CGBs monthly in 2025, potentially increasing to **RMB300-400 billion** per month [4] - **Ownership Structure Changes**: The ownership structure of CGBs and local government bonds (LGBs) has shifted significantly due to the PBoC's quantitative easing, with the 'Others' category rising rapidly [5] - **Credit Impulse and Bond Yields**: A continued decline in credit impulse and the PBoC's bond buying are seen as key drivers for lower bond yields in China [7] - **Investor Demand**: Insurance companies' demand for bonds remains steady, while asset management companies have increased their bond purchases due to poor equity market performance [8] Important but Overlooked Content - **CGB Supply Expectations**: CGB supply is expected to rise by **RMB2 trillion** to **RMB6.5 trillion** in 2025, driven by an increase in the fiscal deficit target from **3% to 4%** of GDP [14][18] - **Impact of Larger Issuance**: Despite larger bond issuance, it has not negatively impacted bond prices, indicating that supply is not a significant determinant of bond yields [13] - **Seasonal Trends**: Historically, December has been the best month for CGBs, with expectations for a rally in March as policy anticipation builds for the National People's Congress [20] - **Potential Catalysts for Change**: Factors that could alter the outlook for lower rates include improvements in wage expectations and potential equity market stabilization measures by the PBoC [21] Forecasts and Trading Ideas - **Revised Yield Forecasts**: The forecast for the 10Y CGB yield has been revised down from **1.80% to 1.20%** for year-end 2025, with a trading range of **1.20-1.60%** anticipated [10][11] - **Trade Recommendations**: The recommendation to buy 10Y CGBs remains, with a target yield of **1.40%** [7][23] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the outlook for China's fixed income market and the role of the PBoC in shaping bond yields and investor behavior.

Summary of the Coal Industry Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Coal Industry** and provides insights into the thermal and coking coal markets in the Asia Pacific region [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Price Movements - **Thermal Coal Prices**: - QHD 5500 thermal coal price decreased by **0.3% week-over-week (WoW)** to **Rmb 707/ton** as of January 3, 2025 [2][8]. - CCI 5500 increased by **0.7% WoW** to **Rmb 770/ton** [2][8]. - BSPI remained flat at **Rmb 703/ton** [2][8]. - Seaborne thermal coal price (NEWC) fell by **3.1% WoW** to **US$ 124/ton** [2][8]. Inventory Levels - **Coal Inventory**: - QHD port inventory decreased by **1.8% WoW** to **6.45 million tons (mt)** [3][8]. - Bohai Rim ports' inventory dropped by **5.2% WoW** to **25.1 mt** [3][8]. - Major Independent Power Producers (IPPs) coal inventory increased to **15.8 days**, up from **15.6 days** the previous week [3][8]. Production Insights - **November Coal Production**: - Set a new record at **428 million tons (mnt)**, representing a **3.4% year-over-year (YoY)** increase and a **3.9% month-over-month (MoM)** increase [4][8]. - Power generation demand was mild, increasing by only **2.5% YoY** to **750 billion kWh** in November [4][8]. Coking Coal Prices - **Coking Coal Prices**: - Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price decreased by **2.9% WoW** to **Rmb 680/ton**, while the Free on Rail (FOR) price remained flat at **Rmb 1,410/ton** [3][8]. - Queensland (QLD) coking coal price increased by **0.5% WoW** to **US$ 206/ton** [3][8]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the coal industry, emphasizing the central government's commitment to treating coal as a strategic reserve, which may allow for further production increases in the future [4][7]. Additional Important Information - The report includes various data points and charts illustrating coal prices, inventory levels, and production trends, which provide a comprehensive view of the current state of the coal market in China [5][6][8]. - The report also highlights the potential impact of weather conditions on coal demand and production, particularly during the heating season [1][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the coal industry update, focusing on price movements, inventory levels, production records, and market outlook.

ab 6 January 2025 Global Research China Industrials Going global: 'China+1' investment plan tracker (2024) UBS's quarterly tracker gauging 'China+1' progress under going global Our China 'going global' tracker follows the country's progress under the China+1 strategy on a quarterly basis (from Q124). In Q424, the overseas investment intentions for LatAm and ASEAN changed—investment plans in ASEAN increased notably in Q424 while investment interest in LatAm continued to decline YoY. We continue to expect goi ...