Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%[2] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately, with CPI growth around 1% and PPI growth around 0%[3] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase significantly, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a broad fiscal deficit rate of 8.2%-9.6%[3] Policy Focus - Policies will focus on external shocks, macroeconomic regulation, and long-term planning, with a balance between supply and demand[4] - Real estate policies will continue to intensify, with reforms in the housing market and local government debt resolution[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will deepen reforms and promote modernization, with a focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading[121] Asset Allocation - Gold prices are expected to rise, potentially reaching $3000/ounce, driven by global uncertainty and monetary policy adjustments[128] - Crude oil prices are expected to slightly decline due to OPEC production increases and relaxed US energy regulations[129] - A-shares are recommended for overweight allocation, while the bond market is cautiously optimistic[130] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, technological innovation, leading companies, new supply chains, and elderly care and fertility sectors[4]

18 November 2024 | 12:23AM HKT Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kevin Wang, CFA +852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 China 2025 Equity Outlook: Policy showtime Explore > A policy-managed growth deceleration, and economic rotation GDP growth will decelera ...

Key Takeaways from Citi 2024 China Investor Conference and Tech Tours Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Technology and Communication sector in China, including semiconductor, automotive, telecommunications, and software industries Core Insights 1. **Apple Supply Chain**: Positive outlook for the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, with several components seeing upgrades such as microphones and casing [2][3] 2. **Panel Market**: Large-sized TV panels are currently undersupplied, leading to opportunities for panel makers. The industry utilization rate (UTR) is expected to remain above seasonal levels [2][3][9] 3. **Automotive Growth**: The automotive supply chain anticipates double-digit growth in 2025, driven by increased content and specific customer demands [2][3][10] 4. **AI and XR Products**: AI-driven products, particularly in the XR space, are expected to create new demand, with companies investing heavily in AR glasses and AI capabilities [2][11] 5. **Semiconductor Trends**: Advanced packaging (AP) is becoming increasingly important for China's semiconductor industry, with OSAT capacity utilization rates improving [4][14] 6. **Tariff Impact**: Limited direct impacts from potential tariff hikes on the supply chain, as many companies have overseas facilities [5][35] Financial Performance and Projections 1. **Smartphone ASP and Margins**: Average selling prices (ASP) for smartphones rose by 30% YoY, with margins expected to improve due to a shift towards premium products [8] 2. **Panel Makers' Profitability**: TCL expects net profits of Rmb5 billion in 2024, with projections for Rmb8-10 billion in 2025, driven by better TV panel pricing and demand [22] 3. **Lens Technology**: Anticipates 30% YoY growth in automotive business for 2024, supported by strong demand from major customers [10][32] 4. **Victory Giant Tech**: Expects AI revenue to double or triple in 2025 compared to 2024, with a significant share in mainstream AI servers [23][13] Sector-Specific Insights Telecommunications - **China Mobile**: Targets revenue growth in 2H24, with a focus on projects with better profitability. Capex is expected to be lower than full-year targets [15] - **Optical Communication**: Innolight sees upside risks in 800G demand, with expectations for further growth in 1.6T demand by 2026 [16] Software and IT Services - **Kingdee**: Maintains breakeven and operating cash flow targets for 2025, with a focus on AI applications driving growth [6][17] - **TravelSky**: Expects net profit growth to outpace revenue growth, with a gradual recovery in profitability [20] Semiconductor - **Chroma ATE**: Positive outlook for metrology foundry qualifications, with expectations for YoY growth in 2025 [14] - **Will Semi**: Stable shipment expectations for Android smartphones, with potential volume upside due to consumer electronics stimulus measures [41] Additional Considerations - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Companies are diversifying supply chains and adjusting production capacities in response to geopolitical concerns and tariff implications [10][25][30] - **Investment in AI**: Companies across various sectors are increasingly investing in AI capabilities, with expectations for significant revenue growth from AI applications in the near future [19][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the Citi 2024 China Investor Conference and Tech Tours, highlighting the positive trends and growth opportunities across various sectors within the technology and communication industry.

Summary of China Resources Sanjiu (000999.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Sanjiu (CR999) - **Industry**: Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and pharmaceutical sector Key Financial Performance - **3Q24 Revenue**: Rmb5,634 million, representing a 3% year-over-year increase [1] - **3Q24 Net Profit**: Rmb561 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, or a 7% decrease when excluding one-off items [1] - **Gross Margin**: Slight decline to 50.5% from 50.8% in 3Q23 [1] - **Net Margin**: Increased to 10.0% from 9.6% in 3Q23 [1] - **KPC Revenue**: Rmb1.9 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase [1] - **KPC Net Profit**: Rmb158 million, a 3% year-over-year decrease [1] Management Insights - **Cost Management**: Management expects a decrease in selling cost ratio, with SG&A and R&D expense ratio decreasing to 35.4% from 36.7% in 3Q23 [1] - **Acquisition Update**: The acquisition of Tasly is expected to be completed in 1Q25 [1] Segment Performance - **Cold Medicines**: Achieved management's full-year target by 3Q24 [2] - **Prescription Drugs**: Stable growth observed in 3Q24 [2] - **TCM Granules**: Sales showed steady growth in 3Q24 [2] - **TCM Decoction**: Business optimization is ongoing [2] TCM GPO Update - **Anhui TCM GPO**: Announced to conduct TCM GPO in 2024, impacting OTC drugs with minimal sales for CR999 [3] - **Hubei TCM GPO**: Related products include brucea javanica seed oil, which is not a key product for CR999 [3] KPC Performance - **Manufacturing Revenue**: Slight decline in 9M24 [4] - **Distribution Revenue**: Improved by more than 5% year-over-year [4] - **Sales Recovery Expectation**: Management expects sales recovery for Xuesaitong injection in 2025 [4] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Buy rating maintained for CR Sanjiu [5] - **Target Price**: Rmb52, based on a DCF model [5] - **Market Cap**: Rmb61,775 million (approximately US$8,545 million) [7] Risks - **Sales Growth Risks**: Slower-than-expected growth in great health sales and TCM granules [19] - **Cost Risks**: Higher costs of TCM herbs could negatively affect gross margins [19] - **KPC Consolidation Risks**: Potential challenges in the consolidation of KPC [19] Valuation Metrics - **2024E Net Profit**: Rmb3,337 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.598 [6] - **2025E Net Profit**: Rmb3,790 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.950 [6] - **2026E Net Profit**: Rmb4,305 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb3.351 [6] Conclusion - China Resources Sanjiu shows mild growth in 3Q24 with stable performance across its segments. The management's focus on cost reduction and the upcoming acquisition of Tasly are expected to support future growth. However, potential risks related to sales growth and cost pressures remain significant considerations for investors.

15 Nov 2024 15:02:39 ET │ 9 pages Metal Matters China export tax rebate removal for copper and aluminum semis bigger | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------- ...

15 November 2024 | 6:52PM HKT China: SAFE data suggest modest FX inflows in October | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Bottom line: Our preferred FX flow measure shows modest FX inflows of US$5bn in October | Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 \| xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sach ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 11 November 2024 | 4:06PM EST Tracking U.S. Supply Chain Congestion GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale: Nov 11th; Weekly Index ~Flat W/W, Scale Remains at '2' shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 2 1 10 Fully Open Fully Bottlenecked GS Supply Chai ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Asia Pacific Economic Research 11 November 2024 J P M O R G A N China: Deflation continued despite pickup in activity shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： • October CPI moderated to 0.3%oya on a 0.1%m/m sa decline. Food prices fell 0.8%m/m sa in October, with falling pork prices (-3. ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 12 November 2024 | 7:47PM HKT shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Cathy Chen, CFA +852-2978-6621 | kaiqi.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hanseong Kweon +82(2)3788-1059 | hanseong.kweon@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Mia Gu +852-2978-6973 | mia.gu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 China/Korea Cosmetics Global cosmetics ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples, specifically focusing on the Pet Food sector - **Companies Discussed**: Gambol, China Pet Foods, Petpal Core Insights 1. **Sales Performance During Double 11**: - Gambol's Fragate and China Pet Foods' Toptrees exceeded expectations with Toptrees achieving triple-digit year-over-year growth. Wanpy and Zeal are projected to grow by 35% and 50% year-over-year in Q4, respectively, compared to 20% and 40-50% in Q3 [2][2][2]. - Total sales across platforms reached RMB 670 million, marking a 65% year-over-year increase, surpassing the expected 32% growth for Q4 [2][2][2]. 2. **Product Mix and Pricing Strategy**: - Gambol is seeing a favorable product mix with mid-to-high-end brands like Toptrees and Meatyway showing strong sales growth. The company is maintaining disciplined discounting strategies [2][2][2]. - China Pet Foods aims to enhance its gross profit margin (GPM) from 37% in 1H24 to 40-45% through a higher direct-to-consumer (DTC) mix and staple food contributions [2][2][2]. 3. **Market Share and Growth Targets**: - Gambol has already met its annual profit targets by Q3 2024 but is still working towards its sales target, with a projected sales growth of at least 22% for Q4 [22][22]. - China Pet Foods expects domestic sales to reach approximately RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, with Wanpy projected to achieve over 35% growth in Q4 [28][28]. 4. **Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Resilience**: - Companies expressed confidence in their ability to pass through costs to clients during tariff hikes, with major clients showing resilience to price increases [2][2][2]. - China Pet Foods is expanding its production capacity in Canada and the U.S. to support supply chain relocation, with new factories expected to commence operations by late 2025 and early 2026 [2][2][2]. 5. **Profitability and Expense Management**: - Gambol anticipates stable selling expenses ratios in the near term, focusing on market share growth without significant volatility [22][22]. - China Pet Foods plans to invest 30-35% of sales in selling expenses, up from 27% previously, to support growth while targeting a GPM of over 40% [28][28]. Additional Insights - **Brand Performance**: Myfoodie and Fregate brands are performing exceptionally well, with Fregate accounting for 30% of shopping festival sales, up from 18% the previous year [2][2][2]. - **Long-term Industry Trends**: The pet food industry is experiencing consolidation, with fewer new entrants expected in 2024 [27][27]. - **Future Product Launches**: Gambol plans to launch new products in 1Q25, including baked food for the Health Guard brand, aimed at a more value-for-money positioning [41][41]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted strong sales performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, a focus on product mix and pricing strategies, and confidence in achieving growth targets despite potential tariff impacts. Companies are strategically investing in their brands and expanding production capabilities to enhance profitability and market share in the competitive pet food industry.