兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1][2][4] - Silver: Bullish with a bias towards selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - Copper: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum in range oscillation, Alumina in weak oscillation [4] - Nickel: Range oscillation [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Weak oscillation [1][4][6] - Silicon Energy: Weak oscillation [6] - Steel and Ore (including Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Weak oscillation [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking Coal in weak oscillation, Coke in bottom - building oscillation [8] - Soda Ash and Glass: Weak oscillation [8] - Polyester: Weak oscillation [8] - Crude Oil: Weak oscillation [10] - Methanol: Decline [10] - Polyolefins: Decline [10] - Rubber: Weak oscillation [10] - Stock Index: Oscillation and consolidation [2] - Treasury Bonds: Range oscillation [2] 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment for going long on gold is still strong, while methanol and lithium carbonate are weak. For gold, due to the weakening of the US dollar and various domestic problems in the US, the upward trend of gold prices continues. For methanol, increasing imports and falling costs lead to a downward price trend. For lithium carbonate, despite some production cuts, the oversupply situation remains [1][2][4][6][10]. - The A - share market has shown a trend of strengthening recently, but the trading volume is still at a low level, and the upward momentum needs to be gathered. The bond market lacks clear directional drivers, and the odds for bulls are not favorable [2]. - For various metals, the financial attributes and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect the price trends. For example, the weakening of the US dollar supports the prices of copper and other metals, but the supply - demand situation of each metal is different [4]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and cost changes affect the price trends of products like silicon energy, crude oil, and polyolefins [6][8][10]. - In the steel and coal sectors, the supply - demand situation and policy expectations jointly affect the price trends. For example, the supply of steel - making raw materials is loose, which drags down the overall price of the steel - iron industry chain [6][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market oscillated strongly on Monday, with technology themes rebounding comprehensively. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, still at a low level. The futures market oscillated strongly following the spot index. The market risk preference is expected to stabilize and recover, but the trading volume is low, and the upward momentum needs to be gathered [2]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated weakly, and the futures bonds closed down across the board. The LPR remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The market still has expectations for loose monetary policy, but the implementation rhythm is uncertain. The current bond market lacks clear directional drivers, and the odds for bulls are not good [2]. Gold and Silver - The US dollar assets are weakening, and the gold price upward trend continues. The US has various problems such as domestic contradictions, stagflation risks, and high - interest - rate environments, which weaken the market's confidence in the US dollar. Gold's monetary attribute is enhanced. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2506 and raise the stop - loss line. For silver, due to the high gold - silver ratio and the weakening of the driving force for ratio repair, it is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put options AG2506P7500 [2][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weakening of the US dollar index supports the copper price, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The mine end is still tight, and the domestic consumption peak season supports demand, but there are concerns about mid - term export drag. The copper price will continue to have high volatility [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina price is under pressure, and the price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro and supply - demand situation. The alumina fundamentals are bearish, and the downward space depends on the cost. The demand concerns for Shanghai aluminum are alleviated, but macro disturbances still exist [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is affected by weather, and the cost of ferronickel is high. The production of intermediate products is increasing, and the production and capacity of refined nickel are expanding. The demand from stainless steel and new energy is weakening. The nickel price is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and selling put options has an advantage in terms of win - rate and odds [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Due to factors such as equipment maintenance and inventory reduction pressure, some lithium ore production lines have reduced production, but the supply reduction may be limited. The terminal vehicle market is active, but the demand transmission is not smooth. The lithium carbonate fundamentals remain loose, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued [4][6]. Silicon Energy - The industrial silicon has a plan for furnace reduction and maintenance, and the new production capacity in the southwest region is being tested. The polysilicon market shows that the rush - installation demand is coming to an end, and the demand in the domestic market has dropped sharply. The industry is in a state of oversupply, and the low - price state will continue [6]. Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price has rebounded, and the inventory is decreasing. Before the May Day holiday, downstream may replenish inventory moderately. The market still has expectations for policies. Considering the supply of steel - making raw materials, the rebar price is expected to oscillate downward in the second quarter, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of RB2510 [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price has risen, and the inventory is decreasing. Before the end of the month, downstream pre - holiday replenishment and policy expectations may support the market sentiment. The demand for plates is weakening, and the hot - rolled coil price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of HC2510 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand structure of iron ore is relatively healthy, and the inventory of iron elements is decreasing. Before the May Day holiday, steel mills may replenish raw materials. However, due to the Sino - US trade war and the release of overseas mine production capacity, the iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is expected to decline in the long term. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions of I2509 and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of Mongolian coal is sufficient, and the production of domestic large mines is stable. The de - stocking pressure of ports and mines is large. The price transmission mechanism is ineffective, and the market's long - term demand expectation is not positive. The supply surplus situation of coking coal is difficult to alleviate, and the previous short - selling strategy should be continued [8]. - **Coke**: The seasonal increase in pig iron production supports the demand for coke, but steel mills are controlling the arrival of goods. The second round of price increase for coke may be difficult to promote. The coking profit has been slightly repaired, and the coke fundamentals remain loose. The spot market is still in a game, and the futures price is mainly bottom - building [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The demand is not strong, and the industry has problems such as over - capacity, loose supply, and passive inventory accumulation. The soda ash price is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the 09 contract [8]. - **Float Glass**: Affected by the real - estate market, the rigid demand for glass is weak, and the speculative demand is not sustainable. The inventory is mainly concentrated in upstream glass factories, and the de - stocking speed in the peak season is slow. The glass price is expected to continue to decline slightly, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions of the FG509 contract [8]. Polyester - The PTA production capacity utilization rate is stable, and the social inventory has decreased. The ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate is 62.3%, and the inventory in the main ports in East China has accumulated. The terminal load has decreased, and the demand support is weak. The PTA market lacks positive drivers, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [8]. Crude Oil - The macro - situation is complex, and the demand is weak, lacking support for oil prices. The expected damage to demand and the limited implementation of OPEC + compensatory production cuts are bearish factors for oil prices. If there is no further positive driver, the oil price is likely to fall after reaching a resistance level [10]. Methanol - The methanol import volume is expected to increase, and the future supply pressure is increasing. The pit - mouth coal price has decreased slightly, and the coal inventory may increase after the end of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance. The increase in supply and the decrease in cost lead to a decline in methanol prices, and it is recommended to hold short positions patiently [10]. Polyolefins - In March, the import volume of PE and PP decreased, and the export volume increased. The increase in export volume is due to the increase in equipment maintenance in Southeast Asia, not the improvement of overseas demand. The domestic supply is in surplus, and the short - selling view remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit the L - PP spread position of the 05 contract as it has reached the profit - taking target [10]. Rubber - The port inventory is decreasing, but the demand is affected by the high inventory of tire enterprises' finished products. The Yunnan rubber - producing area has started tapping, and the supply is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation of rubber is bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be continued. Attention should be paid to the continuity of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [10]