1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the "anti - involution" expectation is positive, and industrial products are generally strong. The A - share market is showing strength, while the bond market is in a high - level shock pattern. Different commodities have different trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Equity Index Futures - The market's long - making sentiment is strengthened, with the trading volume of margin trading funds and northbound funds increasing. Overseas institutions have raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025, and the "anti - involution" expectation continues to ferment. The index futures are expected to be volatile and strong [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market continues to fluctuate. The domestic economic growth is in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to policy intensity and Sino - US trade negotiations. The central bank's large - scale net injection has lowered the capital cost, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate at a high level due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in a high - level shock, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains, but it lacks short - term directional guidance. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver. Silver is expected to be volatile and strong [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - In the short term, the market has a strong expectation of weakening US import demand, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and the trend is upward [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is under medium - term pressure, but the short - term market sentiment is bullish, and the downward trend may be repeated. The short - term upside for Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. Nickel - The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, but the current price is at a low level, and there is no new negative driver. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to hold short positions of call options [4]. Lithium Carbonate - An unexpected event has pushed up the lithium price, but the oversupply situation remains. The weekly output has reached a record high, and the downstream demand is weak. The subsequent price trend depends on whether there are more mines restricting production [4][6]. Silicon Energy (Polysilicon) - The industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations support the price. The overall inventory has declined, and the future market is expected to have a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold the previous strategy [6]. Black Metals Rebar - The spot market has warmed up, and the trading volume has increased. The cost has risen, and the futures price is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has increased, and the overall market sentiment is positive. The cost has risen, and it is recommended to hold the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. Iron Ore - The high - level pig iron production is the core factor. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options and the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The mine - end inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight. It is recommended to hold the long position and consider taking profits according to the inventory and production rate [8]. Coke - The steel mills' profits are good, and the coke price has increased for the first time. The futures price is expected to be strong [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The daily production is high, and the demand is decreasing. The inventory has increased. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract and the long - glass - short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [8]. Float Glass - The fundamentals have improved marginally. The inventory has decreased, and the "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and the long - glass - short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The supply increase and demand peak are in a stalemate, and the oil price will continue to be highly volatile [8]. Methanol - The production has reached the lowest level this year, and the price is supported. The price fluctuation is expected to intensify in August [10]. Polyolefins - The production has increased, and the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to sell call options or short the futures [10]. Cotton - Before the new cotton is on the market, the supply may be tight, which supports the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, which is a negative factor [10]. Rubber - The tire enterprises' production start - up rate has increased, and the price is likely to rise, but the upward drive is uncertain due to seasonal production increase and port inventory pressure [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. Core Viewpoints - The main investment strategies include holding long positions in cotton CF509, maintaining a buy I2509 - sell I2601 positive spread position in iron ore, and holding short positions in alumina AO2509. For other varieties, specific trading strategies are recommended based on their respective fundamentals and market trends [1][2]. - In the short - term, most varieties are expected to show volatile trends. However, from a long - term perspective, the stock index has a clear upward trend, while the trends of other varieties are mainly determined by their supply - demand relationships, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index - The main line of the stock index is not clear yet, and it is in a state of volatile accumulation. Although the market heat has increased significantly after the index broke through key points, the trading main line remains unclear, and the short - term breakthrough momentum is insufficient. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term and has a clear long - term upward trend due to the increasing enthusiasm of international capital for Chinese assets [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market is in a high - level volatile state. The domestic economic growth is basically in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to the intensity of policy reinforcement. The liquidity expectation is cautious due to the tax period. The macro - environment lacks trend - driving factors, and the current low odds and high congestion restrict the further upward space of the bond market [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. Although there are many short - term disturbing factors, the long - term bullish factors for gold prices still hold. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in a narrow - range volatile state. The short - term tariff pressure on copper prices may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and there is still support at the bottom [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, while the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a low - level consolidation state. The supply of nickel resources is relatively abundant, and the demand for downstream stainless steel is weak. The short - term lack of directional driving force is expected to continue the low - level consolidation [4]. - **Lithium**: The lithium price has insufficient upward driving force. The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate remains loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies during the current phased rebound [4]. Silicon Energy - The polysilicon market is expected to have wide - range volatile trends. The supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" production - cut expectation provides support for prices, and the previous strategies can be continued [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The rebar price has strong support at the bottom. The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the furnace material price is relatively firm. It is recommended to continue holding short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The short - term fundamental contradiction of hot - rolled coil accumulates slowly. Although there are some negative factors on the margin, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to continue holding the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile and upward trend. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the inventory is stable. It is recommended to adjust the option strategy and continue holding the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Both coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and upward. The supply of coking coal is tight in the short - term, and the first - round price increase of coke has been gradually implemented, with a positive market outlook [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the long - short game is intense. The arbitrage strategy is temporarily better than the single - side strategy. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract for aggressive investors and continue the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Float Glass**: The short - term fundamentals of float glass change little. The "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation provide support, but the demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and continue the arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The crude oil price is in a high - volatility state. The increase in supply and the peak - season demand are in a stalemate, resulting in high - volatility trends [8]. Methanol - The coastal methanol price is falling, while the inland price has short - term support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - tightening expectation in the coastal area has failed to materialize [8][10]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin price is expected to continue falling. The production enterprise inventory has increased passively, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is decreasing [10]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The supply may be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the textile off - season restricts the price increase [10]. Rubber - The rubber price has limited upward space. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is decreasing, resulting in a supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon and cotton are recommended to be held with a bullish mindset, and there are good arbitrage opportunities in iron ore [1] - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation and accumulation of positive factors. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [2] - The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract [2][6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the medium - term tight - balance pattern remaining unchanged [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside, while the medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged [6] - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in a range, and new orders can focus on the opportunity of selling call options at the upper edge of the range [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [8] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported by the expectation of anti - involution production cuts [8] - Steel prices are expected to see a slower upward slope, and the probability of steel futures prices returning to a volatile pattern increases [8] - Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, and strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - Soda ash prices will fluctuate, and a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 can be held [10][11] - Crude oil prices will continue to be highly volatile, with concerns about supply shortages easing [13] - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and a short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline, and short - selling call options on the 09 - contract are recommended [13] - Cotton prices are supported by the expectation of supply tightness at the end of the year, but attention should be paid to the impact of the off - season and other factors [13] - Rubber prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand [13] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the A - share market continued to fluctuate and adjust. The ChiNext Index rose sharply, but the Shanghai Composite Index weakened. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 1.64 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.48 trillion yuan). The communication and computer sectors led the gains, while the coal and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the losses [2] - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the economy showing an overall positive trend. Short - term incremental policies may not be introduced urgently. The market sentiment was boosted, and the trading volume of A - shares increased. The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation [2] Bond Futures - Yesterday, bond futures rebounded across the board. The economic growth is in line with expectations, and the real estate sector is still weak. The market's expectation of policy intensification has turned cautious [2] - The capital market has become looser, and the bond market has rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] Gold and Silver - The US CPI slightly exceeded market expectations, but core inflation was still lower than expected. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in July has cooled down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [2] - The economic data of China and the US show resilience, and there is a driving force for the convergence of the gold - silver ratio. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the money put options on the 10 - contract [6] Copper - Recently, domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly [6] - LME copper inventories continued to increase, and the contango widened. Domestic inventories are still at a low level, and the spot price has a slight premium. The short - term upward pressure on copper prices due to tariffs may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged [6] Aluminum and Alumina - Domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly. There is still uncertainty in US tariffs [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [6] Nickel - The supply of nickel ore and ferronickel has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The demand for stainless steel and ternary batteries is weak [6] - The imbalance between supply and demand in the nickel market remains unchanged. Although there is some support from the Indonesian RKAB policy, there is currently no clear directional driver. Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] Lithium Carbonate - The supply of lithium carbonate remains loose, and the demand increment is relatively limited. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [8] Silicon Energy - There are expectations of production cuts in the silicon energy industry. The inventory of industrial silicon standard warehouse receipts is decreasing, and the downstream of polysilicon shows signs of price increases. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported [8] Steel and Iron Ore - The economic data in June and the second quarter are good in total but poor in structure. The terminal demand expectation has weakened, and the contradiction in the steel market is not significant [8] - The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly and compress steel - making profits. Strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has limited increment, and the demand is good. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - The first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented this week. The spot market of coke is strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [11] Soda Ash and Glass - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the inventory of soda ash plants is increasing. The trading volume of floating glass is relatively stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [10][11] - It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast of global oil demand growth and economic growth in 2025. API data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The concern about supply shortages has eased, and oil prices will continue to be highly volatile [13] Methanol - The operating rate of methanol production enterprises has decreased to 83%, reaching the lowest level this year. The price trend of methanol depends on the arrival volume in August. A short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] Polyolefin - The domestic economy is developing steadily. The futures price of polyolefin has accelerated its decline, and the spot price has a limited decline. The supply will increase at the end of the month, while the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short - sell call options on the 09 - contract [13] Cotton - The domestic manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, and the overall commodity market sentiment is bullish. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight at the end of the year, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Cotton prices are supported by the supply expectation [13] Rubber - The terminal automotive market is in the off - season, and the demand for rubber is hindered. The supply of rubber raw materials is increasing seasonally, and the inventory at ports has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Rubber prices have limited upside space [13]

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Outlook - The expectation of "anti-involution" is difficult to disprove, and commodities are generally strong [1]. 2. Variety Analysis 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The stock index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points. The trading volume of the two markets continued to rise to 1.53 trillion yuan. The media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and comprehensive finance sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals led the losses [1]. - As the stock index valuation rises to a high level, market caution has increased. Without new positive news, the market will return to high-level volatility in the short term. Considering the significant impact of the mid-year report performance in July, the IF and IH contracts with clear constituent stock earnings may be more resilient. Overall, although there are still uncertainties in the external environment, the A-share market shows resilience, and the trading volume has increased, with the oscillation center expected to continue to move up [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market remained loose, and the bond market remained at a high level. The bond futures rose slightly yesterday and remained within the range. Domestically, the latest inflation data was still weak. Trump announced a second wave of tariff letters involving eight countries. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believed that tariffs might continue to push up inflation [1]. - The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation, but the capital market remained loose. The equity market did not continue its strength yesterday, reducing the drag on the bond market. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, the bond market has limited directional drivers. However, with an optimistic capital market outlook, the bond market will remain at a high level. But there are still risks of high valuation pressure and high congestion. Continue to monitor the performance of the equity market, and the stock-bond seesaw may continue [1]. 2.3 Gold and Silver Futures - The US government continued to release new tariff policy information, which had limited impact on the market. The logic of factors such as services and inflation that are favorable to gold prices has not been disproven, and the central bank's continuous gold purchase behavior has not ended. In the short term, gold prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at the 68.5% quantile in the past three years. The silver price fluctuates with gold, and after the silver price breaks through, the support around 8500 is strong. Strategically, it is recommended to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver until expiration, or transfer the position to the October contracts [4]. 2.4 Non-Ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The LME copper performed the weakest, and the inventory continued to rise. The Shanghai copper followed the LME copper and fell sharply at the opening yesterday, then oscillated at a low level. The domestic inflation data was still weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The supply at the mine end remained tight, and the demand outlook was still cautious. Affected by Trump's statement of a 50% tariff increase on copper, the COMEX and LME copper prices diverged, with the premium exceeding 25%. However, due to the large inflow of copper in the US, the market's expectation of copper surplus in the US after the tariff implementation increased. The inventory of the three major exchanges has been rising, and the domestic market generally followed the LME, but the decline was slightly smaller. The financial attribute still supports copper prices in the medium to long term, but the tariff policy is uncertain, and the structural mismatch persists, so copper price fluctuations may increase [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina prices continued to be strong, breaking through 3200. The Shanghai aluminum oscillated higher at night. The domestic inflation data was weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The recent strength of alumina prices was mainly due to the "anti-involution" expectation, but the excess capacity situation remained unchanged. The supply of Shanghai aluminum was constrained, and the import profit was inverted. The demand was cautious due to the off-season, and the inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, alumina is temporarily strong due to sentiment, but the upside is uncertain. The medium-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short-term demand and inventory are dragging, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has seasonally recovered, and the port inventory has increased significantly, causing the nickel ore price to decline marginally. In June, the nickel iron production in Indonesia and China decreased by 3.85% month-on-month but increased by 22.21% year-on-year. The supply was relatively abundant, but downstream demand was limited. The price of intermediate products was relatively firm. The nickel fundamentals have not improved, and the off-season demand is not favorable. The supply pressure has increased with the increase in the Philippines' ore supply. Recently, the nickel price has oscillated lower, but the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the demand for MHP, and the price of intermediate products has rebounded. As the nickel price dropped to 119,000 yuan, the downward momentum weakened, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term. The short position of out-of-the-money call options strategy can be continued [4][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite have continued to rise, driving up the lithium price due to increased mining costs. However, the improvement in the lithium carbonate fundamentals is limited. The production capacity of salt lakes has continued to increase seasonally, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has remained at a relatively high level this year. The downstream demand has not increased, and the production schedules of battery cell and cathode enterprises have been mediocre. The traditional off-season will also limit the growth rate of terminal demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is still in the accumulation cycle, and the upside of the price is limited. It is advisable to short at high levels during this stage of the rebound [6]. - **Silicon Energy**: The supply-side reform and industry restructuring expectations of the polysilicon industry have increased significantly due to the policy signal of capacity regulation. The recent strong performance of the polysilicon spot price has further promoted the rise of the polysilicon futures price. In the short term, the sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not fully reflected. Overall, the policy support for the price is strong, and it is advisable to hold the short position of put options [6]. 2.5 Steel and Iron Ore Futures - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar fluctuated slightly yesterday. The trading volume of construction steel decreased to 88,500 tons. The demand in the off-season has no bright spots, and the market drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again. The market expectation is optimistic, but the time for the implementation of supply contraction is uncertain. On the one hand, the profit of electric arc furnaces has recovered, and there is a risk of increased production in the off-season. On the other hand, the profit of long-process steel mills is good, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the rebar futures price will oscillate strongly, with the bottom rising and the upside limited by the electric arc furnace cost. The option-selling strategy is temporarily better than the single-sided futures strategy. It is recommended to continue to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P2900) [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot rolled coil fluctuated yesterday. The demand in the off-season is average, both in reality and expectation. Overseas orders for automobiles and home appliances have weakened, and the domestic "trade-in" policy has limited room. The price difference between domestic and foreign steel has narrowed significantly, and the pressure on direct exports may increase. The market upward drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the expectation of crude steel production reduction has increased. The long-process steel mills are actively producing, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the hot rolled coil futures price will oscillate strongly this week, with the bottom cost rising and the upside limited by the export cost. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see on the single side, and consider continuing to hold the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits on the January contracts [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again, but the time for the implementation of steel mill production cuts is uncertain. In the short term, the profit of steel mills still encourages long-process steel mills to maintain an active production rhythm. The daily output of domestic blast furnace hot metal has declined slowly at a high level. Under the background of high hot metal output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply-demand contradiction of imported iron ore in July is limited. The iron ore price is running strongly, compressing the profit of steel mills. The upside of the iron ore price in the off-season is mainly limited by the resumption of electric arc furnace production and the narrowing of the steel price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which restricts the upside of steel prices. It is advisable to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (I2509-P-700) and continue to hold the iron ore 9-1 positive spread strategy (spread 27.5, +0.5) [8]. 2.6 Coal and Coke Futures - **Coking Coal**: The auction price at the mine mouth has continued to rise, and the replenishment enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises and the willingness of the trading sector to enter the market have continued to increase. It is expected that the raw coal inventory of coal mines will further decrease, and the temporary supply-demand mismatch is still favorable for coal prices. The long position strategy can be continued. Recently, attention should be paid to the production increase progress of mines after the safety production month [8]. - **Coke**: The production enthusiasm of steel mills is good, and the daily output of hot metal has remained at a relatively high level in the off-season. The demand for coke in the furnace is supported, and steel mills are still purchasing raw materials. The port trading activity has also increased, and the spot price has increased. The futures price has also shown a strong trend [8]. 2.7 Soda Ash and Glass Futures - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental negative factors are clear, that is, supply exceeds demand. Yesterday, the daily production of soda ash increased to 102,900 tons (+500 tons). Kunshan produced products last night, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry plans to increase production on the 11th. The demand lacks bright spots, and the daily consumption of rigid demand is about 98,000 tons (including exports). Alkali plants may continue to accumulate inventory passively. However, at the micro level, after the single-sided position of the September contracts of soda ash reached a record high, it has rebounded after three consecutive days of position reduction. The single-sided position is still as high as more than 1.59 million lots (equivalent to 31.8 million tons), and the virtual position ratio is too high. Be vigilant against the risk of short squeeze in the market due to the "anti-involution" expectation or sentiment. It is advisable to hold the short position of the September contracts of soda ash with a stop-profit line. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, glass is stronger than soda ash, and the strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash can be patiently held (spread -112, -13) [8]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The operating production capacity of float glass has remained stable. Yesterday, the average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas decreased to 97% (-5%). The futures price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot purchases based on futures. It is expected that the glass factory will reduce inventory by 1.7 million heavy boxes this week. The main driver of the off-season market comes from the supply side. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the production capacity of glass factories using petroleum coke and natural gas processes has been in a loss state, and the probability of cold repair is increasing. It is believed that the probability of the realization of the supply contraction expectation in the far-month contracts may gradually increase. Strategically, it is recommended to go long on the January contracts at low prices on the single side and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash (spread -112, -13) [8]. 2.8 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market is currently in a stage where OPEC+ is accelerating production increases and the US is in a peak demand season. The market assesses that the excess pressure is relatively limited, but the US API inventory shows a significant accumulation of 7.128 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding expectations, and the monthly spread has started to cool recently. The expectation of tight supply in the US market will be alleviated. It is expected that the short-term rebound space of oil prices is limited, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds [10]. - **Methanol**: This week, the arrival volume was 310,300 (+55,700) tons, with an increase of 126,200 tons in Jiangsu and a decrease of 15,000 tons each in Guangdong and Fujian. Affected by the increase in the arrival volume, the inventory in East China ports increased by 61,000 tons, and that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. Currently, the port inventory has reached the highest level since April but is still at a historical low for the same period. The factory inventory only increased by 4,600 tons. Although the spot trading volume has declined, the production enterprise's operating rate has also decreased. The "anti-involution" has no direct impact on the methanol industry chain for the time being, but the rebound in coal prices and the disappearance of pessimistic sentiment can provide some support for methanol futures [10]. 2.9 Chemical Futures - **Polyolefins**: Although OPEC+ has increased production, tariffs and geopolitical factors have supported the rebound of crude oil prices. This week, the spot trading has been sluggish, and the production enterprise's inventory has increased, with PE increasing by 12.5% and PP increasing by 2%. The social inventory has also increased, with PE increasing by 2.1% and PP increasing by 3.2%. In previous years, the inventory decreased during the same period, but this year it has continued to increase since June, indicating an oversupply situation. Recently, there have been concentrated production cuts in coal mines and new energy metals, triggering expectations of a new round of supply-side reforms, but it is difficult to have a substantial positive impact on polyolefins in the short term, and the price will continue to decline from July to August [10]. 2.10 Agricultural Futures - **Cotton**: In terms of supply, multiple regiments in Xinjiang have been affected by hail, and the damage to cotton fields varies. The weather theme has boosted the cotton price to run strongly. In terms of demand, terminal orders are mainly small and scattered, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. Some enterprises have started to take high-temperature holidays or reduce production capacity due to sales pressure and high temperatures. In terms of inventory, the decline rate of the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June has slowed down compared with last month, but the year-on-year decline in Xinjiang's cotton inventory has increased. Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the end of this year still strongly supports the futures price. It is recommended to continue to hold the previous long positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the rubber price has oscillated and rebounded. However, the automobile market has entered the traditional off-season, and tire enterprises still face inventory reduction pressure, so the demand expectation is not positive. The production in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has increased smoothly during the peak season, the weather conditions in the producing areas are normal, and the negative impact of climate change on rubber tapping operations has gradually weakened. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market has continued to decline. The rubber fundamentals continue to show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, which may limit the upside of the rubber price [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The drivers of commodity futures are differentiated, with coking coal being relatively strong and lithium carbonate and PTA being relatively weak [1]. - Stock indices are in a period of consolidation, and their medium - to long - term upward trend is clear. The bond market is running at a high level, and gold is oscillating at a high level [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market oscillated strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The steel, banking, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the comprehensive finance and computer industries led the losses. The four major stock index futures showed differentiated trends, with IF and IH strengthening, and IC and IM oscillating at high levels [1]. - In the short term, stock indices may maintain high - level consolidation. In the medium - to long - term, with clear policy support and improved fundamental expectations, the inflow of medium - to long - term funds continues, and the upward trend of stock indices is clear. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations. Domestically, during the interim report season, the earnings of IF and IH constituent stocks are more certain, and their trends may be stronger [1]. Bonds - Last week, the bond market rose slightly and remained at a high level. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation at the beginning of the month, but the capital market remained loose, and the inter - bank capital cost declined across the board [1]. - Although the bond issuance pressure has increased, the market's expectation of liquidity remains optimistic. Overall, the macro - environment has strong uncertainty and limited trend drivers. The bond market remains at a high level, but there is still high - valuation pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market [1]. Gold and Silver - The suspension period of US reciprocal tariffs is about to end, and short - term policy uncertainty has increased again. However, there are more signals of strong US economic resilience, which is conducive to restoring market risk appetite. The short - term probability of a Fed rate cut has decreased, and the factors favorable to the gold price in the long - term need further fermentation [1]. - In the short term, the driving force for the gold price to break through upwards is insufficient, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level in July. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of repair. The silver price has strong technical support below after the breakthrough. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put option positions of the gold and silver 08 contracts until expiration [4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, Shanghai copper was strong in the first half of the week and fell back in the second half, returning below 80,000 yuan. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The supply at the mine end remains tight, and attention should be paid to the development of the Peruvian copper mine incident [3][4]. - The demand remains cautiously expected, and the off - season and high prices have restricted the downstream to a certain extent. The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges have increased across the board, and the LME spot premium has significantly declined. The financial attribute still supports the copper price in the medium - to long - term, and the low - inventory pattern is expected to remain unchanged before the copper tariff is implemented. However, the short - term positive factors may weaken [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - The US trade negotiation uncertainty remains high. The concern about ore disturbances in alumina has not subsided, but the domestic bauxite inventory is still high, and the short - term supply shortage concern is limited. The alumina production capacity is expanding rapidly, and the downstream demand has little room for growth, so the surplus pattern is difficult to change [3][4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the supply constraint is still clear, and the import profit remains inverted. The demand is still cautious due to the off - season, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. Overall, the alumina surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is under pressure. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short - term demand and inventory have certain drags, and the influence of tariffs has increased [4]. Nickel - The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered seasonally, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the nickel ore price has weakened marginally. The supply of nickel iron is abundant, but the downstream acceptance is limited, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The production capacity of intermediate products is still expanding. The refined nickel production decreased in June, but the inventory remained oscillating at a high level. Overall, the demand is weak, the nickel supply has increased seasonally, and the surplus pattern is clear. As the macro - sentiment fades, the nickel price is under pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals Lithium Carbonate - The lithium ore price has stabilized, which has increased the cost support. However, the surplus pattern of the lithium salt market has not been substantially improved. The weekly output of lithium carbonate remains at a relatively high level of over 18,000 tons, while the downstream demand has insufficient growth, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle [6]. - The current periodical rebound can be used to short at high prices [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased this week. Some manufacturers in the southwest region have resumed production due to the implementation of the wet - season subsidy electricity price, and the market supply has increased [6]. - Since the warehouse receipts are still being depleted, the near - month contracts are strongly supported. Attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution production cuts on the supply side [6]. Steel and Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar was stable to slightly lower over the weekend, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the improvement at the spot level is limited. The speculative demand has recovered, but the rigid demand has weakened seasonally, and the marginal inventory reduction speed of rebar has gradually slowed down [6]. - It is expected that the rebar futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to double pressure from the electric - furnace cost and the sustainability of spot price increases. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option positions (RB2510P2900) [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil was generally stable over the weekend, with slight declines in some areas, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the follow - up power at the spot level is insufficient. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, and the inventory has increased [6]. - It is expected that the hot - rolled coil futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to pressure from export costs and the sustainability of spot price increases during the off - season. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the single - side and consider participating in the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits for the 01 contract [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the daily output of molten iron in the Steel Union sample decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Under the background of high molten iron output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of imported ore in July is limited [6]. - The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, and the steel futures and spot prices have risen in resonance. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the money put option I2509 - P680 and consider participating in the 9 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low [6]. Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The raw coal inventory in coal mines has continued to decline, the pit - mouth transaction atmosphere has improved, and the enthusiasm of steel, coke enterprises, and trading links for raw material procurement and inventory has increased. The transaction rate has reached a new high for the year, and the short - term supply - demand mismatch has pushed up the coal price [8]. - It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and pay attention to the coal mine production increase progress after the safety production month and the sustainability of downstream procurement [8]. Coke - Hebei steel mills may have production restrictions, but the daily output of molten iron is at a relatively high seasonal level, which supports the rigid demand for coke. The actual demand performance is good, while the coke oven operation is restricted by profit factors and is difficult to significantly increase production. Coke plants are actively reducing inventory, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are clear. The daily output of soda ash remained unchanged at 99,300 tons on Friday, and Kunshan and Qinghai Fatou will resume production one after another this week. The demand for light soda ash is difficult to offset the reduction in heavy soda ash demand [8]. - The supply of soda ash is relatively loose, and the continuous passive inventory accumulation trend of alkali plants remains unchanged. In the short term, the soda ash price oscillates at a low level, and the near - month contracts are weaker than the far - month contracts due to the selling - hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the short positions of the soda ash 09 contract with a stop - profit line and patiently hold the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Float Glass - The operating capacity of float glass is temporarily stable, and the demand is difficult to digest both the supply and the existing inventory at the same time. The glass factory inventory fluctuates slightly, and it is difficult to reduce the high inventory [8]. - The "anti - involution" concept has promoted the recovery of market expectations, but the short - term implementation probability is low, and the cold - repair drive of glass factories is still accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices after the basis widens and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the US "Big and Beautiful" Act has been passed by both houses of Congress, which may increase US crude oil production. The EIA weekly data shows an unexpected inventory accumulation, which is generally bearish [8]. - Overall, the OPEC+ production increase decision may increase the supply pressure, and the short - term oil price will oscillate weakly [8]. PTA - The cost - end crude oil OPEC+ continues to significantly increase production, and the oil price is expected to move down, providing weak support for energy - chemical products. In addition, the PTA supply side will face the pressure of new production capacity and the resumption of existing maintenance capacity in the third quarter, and the inventory - reduction pattern will turn into inventory accumulation [11]. - It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend [11]. Methanol - Most Iranian methanol plants have restarted, but the operating load is low. The operating rate of overseas methanol plants has increased by 11% to 64%. Many plants in the northwest started maintenance last week, and the output will decrease by about 5% in the next month, and the factory inventory will also decrease passively [10]. - The monthly arrival volume has decreased more than expected, and the weekly volume is expected to not exceed 300,000 tons. Although the downstream demand has entered the off - season, the total demand has not changed significantly. Therefore, the supply will be tight in July, and the methanol price is supported. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or at - the - money straddles for the 08 options contract [10]. Polyolefins - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with an increase of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August and considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September. The crude oil supply is increasingly surplus, and the price will continue to decline [10]. - In the second quarter, new polyolefin plants were successfully put into operation. In the second half of the year, PE will have 3.1 million tons of new production capacity, and PP will have 2.1 million tons of new production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure. It is recommended to go long on the L - PP spread and short on PP 3MA [10]. Cotton - The domestic cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 6.784 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease, and the expectation of tight supply and demand in the current season has strengthened. The third quarter is the critical growth period of cotton, and any adverse weather conditions may cause final yield losses and push up the weather premium [10]. - The downstream textile enterprises are performing well, the terminal clothing consumption has remained basically unchanged year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to continue holding the previous long positions [10]. Rubber - The rubber tapping operations in domestic and Southeast Asian main producing areas have progressed smoothly, the impact of climate factors has weakened, and the expected seasonal increase in raw material supply has been realized. The downstream tire enterprises have difficulty in depleting finished - product inventory, which has dragged down the production line operation rate [10]. - The inventory at the port is accelerating accumulation, indicating an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the fundamentals. The rubber price is likely to continue the weak - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Alumina, Soda Ash, Glass, Polyolefins, Rubber, Crude Oil [1][2][8][10] - **Bullish**: Stocks Index, Copper, Aluminum, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1][4] - **Range - bound**: Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Nickel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore) [1][4][6] - **Neutral**: Methanol [8] 2. Core Views - The A - share market shows strong resilience with clear policy support, and the stock index is expected to move up gradually as market sentiment improves [1] - The bond market lacks directional drivers, and upward momentum is weak due to high market congestion and high valuations [1] - Precious metals prices are in high - level oscillations due to tariff policy uncertainties, but the long - term upward logic remains valid [1] - For various commodities, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy uncertainties are the main factors affecting price trends 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - A - shares strengthened on Monday, with the science - innovation sector leading the rise. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.52 trillion yuan. The defense industry and media sectors led the gains, while the banking and non - bank financial sectors declined [1] - The domestic PMI index rose by 0.2% in June, indicating an overall expansion of the economic climate. Overseas, tariff uncertainties increased as the US tariff suspension period neared its end [1] - The stock index is expected to have an upward - moving central range as market sentiment remains optimistic [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market weakened across the board yesterday, with the equity market performing strongly. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant [1] - The central bank continued net injections in the open market. Although the capital cost increased due to the end - of - quarter factor, it remained relatively stable [1] - The bond market lacks directional drivers, and upward momentum is weak due to high market congestion and high valuations [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - With less than 9 days left until the end of the tariff suspension period, the uncertainty of tariff policies has increased. Trump may announce a new tariff framework on July 4th [1] - The short - term price of gold is in high - level oscillations, but the long - term upward logic remains valid. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of correction [4] - It is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [4] 3.4 Base Metals Copper - The copper price remained in high - level oscillations. The domestic PMI data was good, and the US dollar index continued to decline [4] - The mid - year smelting and processing fee for Antofagasta was set at 0 yuan/ton, the lowest in history, indicating a continued tight supply of ore [4] - The non - US inventory continued to decline, and the domestic spot premium was rising. The copper price has support at the bottom [4] Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price oscillated in the morning and declined at night. The Shanghai aluminum price remained in high - level oscillations [4] - Although there are concerns about future ore supply, the import ore price is stable, and the inventory is high. The alumina surplus situation remains unchanged, and it is advisable to short at high prices [4] - The supply of Shanghai aluminum is limited by production capacity, and the demand is uncertain. The low inventory and supply constraints still support the price [4] Nickel - The supply of high - grade laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the price is firm. The supply of ferronickel is abundant, but downstream demand is weak [4] - The production of refined nickel is no longer growing rapidly, but the surplus situation is difficult to improve in the short term [4] - The nickel price lacks directional drivers and is in a range - bound state. Selling options is a relatively better strategy [4] 3.5 Chemical Commodities Soda Ash - The production of Soda Ash by Yuanxing Energy has recovered, and the daily output has exceeded 100,000 tons. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the inventory is high [8] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the Soda Ash 09 contract and the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8] Float Glass - The average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas dropped to 93%. The deep - processing orders decreased, and the production increased [8] - The supply surplus situation of glass remains unchanged, and it is advisable to short when the basis converges to a low level [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium ore has stabilized, but the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand. The production continues to increase, while the downstream demand is weak [4] - The lithium carbonate price will be under pressure [4] Methanol - The production in June was 8.62 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.67 million tons in July. The production will decrease significantly in August due to increased maintenance [8] - The apparent demand increased by 8.8% in the first half of the year, and the supply is expected to tighten from August to September and November to December, supporting the price [8] Polyolefins - In June, the PE production was 2.61 million tons, and the PP production was 3.34 million tons. In July, the production is expected to increase to 2.7 million tons for PE and 3.4 million tons for PP [10] - Due to the off - season and increased supply, the polyolefin futures are expected to decline further [10] 3.6 Steel and Minerals Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The inventory increased for the first time last week [6] - The construction PMI index rebounded significantly in June, and infrastructure construction may progress rapidly. The supply - demand contradiction is limited [6] - The steelmaking cost has a significant impact on the price. It is necessary to pay attention to the coal mine supply recovery in the next two weeks [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil increased slightly, and the trading volume was weak. The manufacturing PMI index was better than expected, but the demand recovery was slow [6] - The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coil is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the coal mine supply recovery [6] Iron Ore - The daily output of molten iron is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. The import of iron ore will decline in July [6] - The supply - demand structure of iron ore will be less loose in July, and the price will move in a range [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The inventory of mines has reached an inflection point, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises exceeded expectations. The trading atmosphere has improved [8] - The coking coal price is expected to continue to rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions [8] Coke - The coking profit is at the break - even point, and the initiative to increase production is insufficient. The demand for coke is supported by the high molten iron output [8] - The coke spot market may have a price increase trend, and the futures price is likely to be strong [8] 3.8 Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East remain. OPEC countries may increase production in August [8] - The market driver has shifted to the supply side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ production plan [8] 3.9 Agricultural Products Cotton - In China, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect new cotton growth, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. In the US, the drought area is shrinking [10] - The demand is in the off - season, but the downstream opening rate has not decreased significantly, and the inventory is being depleted [10] - The cotton price is expected to be well - supported [10] Rubber - The demand for rubber is weak due to high inventory in the tire industry. The upstream rubber tapping is progressing smoothly, and the supply is increasing [10] - The port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the rubber price is expected to decline in oscillations [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the trading volume is continuously increasing. Long positions in stock index futures IF2509 should be held. - Polysilicon prices continue to decline, while the support for Shanghai aluminum is relatively strong. - The long - term upward trend of stock indices is clear, although there may be short - term fluctuations. High - valuation bonds face repair pressure. - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation, with a long - term bullish view on gold. - Copper, aluminum, and nickel prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are in a range - bound state, with different influencing factors for each. - The supply of lithium carbonate and polysilicon exceeds demand, and their prices are under pressure. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly, while iron ore prices are relatively firm and run in a narrow range. - Coal and coke prices are in a bottom - building stage, with a weak supply - demand relationship. - The support for glass is stronger than that for soda ash. - Crude oil prices may oscillate weakly and are in a repair stage. - Methanol prices have support due to potential supply tightening in the third quarter. - Polyolefin prices are oscillating, and their pricing depends on supply and demand. - Cotton prices have relatively strong support, while rubber prices are oscillating weakly. [1][2][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Market sentiment is positive, trading volume is increasing, and the long - term upward trend of stock indices is clear. Long positions in IF2509 should be held. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and high - valuation bonds face repair pressure. [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic macro - economic outlook has improved, and the high - valuation bond market faces repair pressure. It is in a range - bound oscillation. [1] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risk premiums have significantly declined, and prices are in a high - level oscillation. The long - term bullish view on gold remains unchanged, and short - put options on gold and silver 08 contracts can be held. [4] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weakening US dollar index supports copper prices, but demand expectations are cautious, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness may continue. [4] - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand of Shanghai aluminum are mixed, and low inventory and supply constraints support prices. Alumina has excess pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be waited for at high prices. [4] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, but resource - end support is strong, and it continues to oscillate in a range. [4] Energy and Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, prices are under pressure, and short - call options can be held. [6] - **Crude Oil**: After the rapid rise and fall in the short - term, the market needs to oscillate and repair. It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Methanol**: Although the coastal demand has weakened and port inventories have increased, supply may tighten in the third quarter, and the 09 contract price has support. [10] Steel and Minerals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils have not changed much, demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron ore prices are relatively firm and run in a narrow range. [6] - **Coal and Coke**: The coal and coke market is in a bottom - building stage. The long - term oversupply pattern of coking coal has not improved, and short - positions in coking coal futures can be stopped for profit. Coke supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price has rebounded first. [8] Building Materials - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash supply exceeds demand, and short - positions can be held. The support for glass is stronger than that for soda ash, and long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage strategies can be considered. [8] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and prices have relatively strong support. [10] - **Rubber**: The supply increases while the demand decreases, and prices are under pressure and oscillate weakly. [10] Polyolefins - Polyolefin production and trader inventories have significantly decreased. If there are more maintenance devices in July, futures prices will decline limitedly. Otherwise, prices may hit new lows for the year. [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Index futures [1] - **Bearish Outlook**: PTA, PP, soda ash, methanol, polyolefins, rubber [1][2][10] - **Neutral with Upward Bias**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, polysilicon, iron ore [1][4][5][6][8][10] - **Neutral with Downward Bias**: Lithium carbonate, steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), coking coal, coke, glass [6][8] Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly recovered due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the A - share market sentiment has been boosted by events such as the parade and the Summer Davos Forum. With the improvement of liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to continue to move up [1]. - The high valuation of treasury bonds has an increasing drag effect, and the bond market is mainly affected by liquidity in the short term, with limited trend drivers [1]. - For precious metals, although the geopolitical risk premium has declined, long - term factors are still favorable for gold prices, and both gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels in July [4]. - In the base metals market, supply and demand are intertwined, and most metals are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound drive and space of lithium prices are limited [6]. - The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and the supply - demand pattern continues to be loose [6]. - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and the weakening of demand in the off - season, and the steel price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply situation, while the glass market has stronger support than soda ash, and short - term low - level oscillation is expected [8]. - The oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage after a short - term sharp decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The demand for methanol and polyolefins is weakening, and prices are under downward pressure [10]. - The cotton market has better fundamentals, and the cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. Summary by Variety Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points and the trading volume increasing to 1.45 trillion yuan. Non - banking finance and power equipment sectors led the rise. Global major stock indexes generally rose, and the stock index futures followed the spot index. With policy support and improved liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to rise [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds weakened across the board. The central bank's liquidity operations and high valuations are the main influencing factors. The overseas geopolitical risk has weakened, but uncertainties remain. The central bank has a strong intention to protect liquidity, but there may be a large liquidity gap in July [1]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical risk premium of gold and silver has significantly declined, but long - term factors are still favorable for gold. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver [4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillates in a range. The supply is tight, but the demand is greatly affected by the macro - environment. The market is waiting for the progress of tariff negotiations [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina has an oversupply situation, but the current valuation is low. The Shanghai aluminum has low inventory and supply constraints, which form support for the price [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market has not improved fundamentally, but the downward momentum is weak after the price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling options [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Due to the decline in cost support, it is advisable to enter new short positions in the PTA2509 contract [2]. - **PP**: As the demand enters the off - season, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the PP2509 contract [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the alkali plants are accumulating inventory passively. It is recommended to hold short positions in the soda ash 09 contract or the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. Energy and Minerals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and weak demand in the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to run in a narrow range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal has an oversupply situation, and the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market of coke is approaching the bottom, and the decline of the futures price may slow down [8]. Other Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound of the lithium price is restricted [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - **Crude Oil**: After a short - term sharp decline, the oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: The demand for methanol is weakening, and the price is expected to return below 2300 yuan for the 09 contract [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins is weakening, and the price may return to a weak state and may hit a new low this year [10]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is tightening, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the downward pressure on the rubber price is increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]