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兴业期货日度策略:2025.08.07-20250807
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 12:11
Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways pattern [1] - **Gold**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - **Silver**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - **Copper**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Sideways pattern [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Sideways [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern [7] - **Methanol**: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - **Polyolefins**: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern [9] - **Rubber**: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - **Precious Metals**: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - **Crude Oil**: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - **Methanol**: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - **Rubber**: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories **Equity Index Futures** - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] **Treasury Bonds** - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] **Precious Metals** - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] **Lithium Carbonate** - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] **Silicon Energy** - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] **Steel and Iron Ore** - **Rebar**: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - **Iron Ore**: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] **Soda Ash and Float Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] **Crude Oil** - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] **Methanol** - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] **Polyolefins** - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] **Cotton** - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] **Rubber** - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]
兴业期货日度策略-20250807
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 10:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, and long positions should be held; commodity futures such as Shanghai Aluminum and polysilicon continue to show a strong trend [1] - The bond market may continue to operate at a high level, and the prices of precious metals are running strongly; the copper market has short - term upward pressure, and the aluminum market has a clear medium - term long position pattern; the nickel market has limited upward space [1][4] - The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate shows signs of improvement; the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are supported; the prices of steel products are strongly supported; the prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile state [5][6][7] - The fundamentals of soda ash and float glass are bearish in the short term, and the glass price may turn around in the long term; crude oil is weakly operating in the short term; methanol and polyolefin are in a volatile pattern [7][8][9] - Cotton is weakly operating, and rubber is expected to rebound in the short term [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - The stock index continued to rise steadily on Wednesday, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The long - making sentiment in the market was strengthened, and the leverage funds accelerated to enter the market. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and the long positions of IF2509 in the CSI 300 Index should be held [1] Bond Futures - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the inflation pressure still exists, and the central bank's open - market operations have a net withdrawal, but the capital is still loose. The bond market is difficult to turn around, and there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to operate at a high level [1] Precious Metals - After Trump announced a series of important news, the short - term upward momentum of gold prices has increased. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold long positions in silver [4] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price continued to fluctuate within the range. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the supply side is tense due to the Chilean copper mine incident, and the demand side is cautious. The mine - end disturbances and the weakening of the US dollar index support the copper price, but the demand concerns still drag it down, and there is short - term upward pressure [4] Aluminum - The alumina price is slightly higher, and the market has an expectation of medium - term surplus, but the low warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price. The demand for Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be cautious in the off - season, but the supply constraint limits the inventory accumulation pressure. The long - position pattern of Shanghai Aluminum in the medium term remains unchanged, and the long positions of AL2510 should be held [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel is loose, the demand has no significant improvement, and the high inventory pressure of refined nickel remains unchanged. Although the nickel price has rebounded at a low level under the influence of the macro - situation, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold short - position call options [4] Chemical Products Lithium Carbonate - Due to the influence of policies on the lithium resource end, the weekly output of lithium carbonate has decreased, the inventory accumulation pressure has been relieved, and the demand expectation has turned positive. The supply - demand structure shows signs of improvement, and the renewal result of the mining license of Jiuxiwo Mine needs to be closely watched this week [6] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, the supply is in a passive contraction state, and the fundamentals are supported. The spot price of polysilicon has risen significantly, with strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs to be concerned [6] Steel and Iron Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar continued to rise, the trading volume decreased slightly, the supply - demand contradiction accumulated slowly, and the inventory was at a low level. The supply is restricted by environmental protection and anti - involution policies, and the cost is supported by the rise in coking coal and coke prices. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, and the fundamentals are tough. The supply is restricted, the cost is supported, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the 1 - contract on dips [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection restrictions and weak basis, while the 1 - contract is supported by positive expectations. However, the upward space of the iron ore price is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection restriction expectations are fulfilled [6] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The market has an expectation of supply tightening, but the full implementation probability of reducing coal mine production hours is low, and the influence of expected sentiment on coal prices is greater than the fundamentals. Be wary of the risk of over - rising prices [7] Coke - Five rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, the supply and demand are expected to increase, the spot market trading is active, and the futures price is stable and fluctuating strongly [7] Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. The daily production is stable, the supply constraint is insufficient, the demand has no improvement, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 09 - contract [7] Float Glass - The downstream orders of glass deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, the replenishment willingness is limited, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. In the long term, if the supply contraction expectation is fulfilled, the glass price may turn around. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 9 - contract on dips and lay out long positions on the 01 - contract [7] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors increase the probability of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the short - term risk premium decreases. Although the inventory data is positive, the market reaction is insufficient, and the crude oil is weakly operating [7] Methanol - The port inventory has increased, and the production enterprise inventory has decreased. The coastal supply is loose, and the inland supply is tight. It is recommended to sell an option straddle combination [9] Polyolefins - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyolefins have increased, indicating a loose supply. The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn to a volatile and slightly strong state [9] Cotton - The cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with a high probability of increased production. The overseas cotton production area has good weather, but the Sino - US trade situation restricts cotton exports. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The cotton is weakly operating [9] Rubber - The sales of passenger cars are good, the tire enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the demand expectation is turning warm. The raw material price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling and rebound in stages [9]
兴业期货日度策略-20250805
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:50
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index futures, coking coal, coke, rubber [1][8][10] - Sideways pattern: Treasury bonds, gold, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), soda ash, float glass, crude oil, methanol, polyolefins, cotton [1][4][6][8][10] - Bearish bias: Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel), lithium carbonate [4] - Bullish pattern for silver [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has entered an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing. The risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged for A - shares, and the downside risk of the index is relatively controllable. For bonds, the macro - face turnaround needs further confirmation, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. For precious metals, the short - term dollar rebound affects gold, but the long - term bullish logic for silver remains. For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term impacts such as tariffs, the medium - to - long - term supply pattern varies by metal. For energy and chemical products, the supply and demand and market sentiment vary, with some facing supply - side constraints and others with demand - side uncertainties. For steel and building materials, the market has returned to fundamental pricing, and the supply - demand contradictions are different for each product. For agricultural products, the supply and demand situation affects the price trends, with some facing weakening upward momentum and others having certain demand support [1][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Futures General - The market has shifted to an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing [1] Index Futures - Risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair for A - shares remains unchanged. The A - share profit bottom is emerging, and the market trading is still active. The downside risk of the index is relatively controllable [1] Treasury Bonds - The latest PMI data is below expectations, and the market optimism has weakened. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. The upward movement of the bond market needs further confirmation, and short - duration bonds perform relatively stably [1] Precious Metals - Gold: The US economy is cooling moderately, the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates in the short term, and the short - term dollar rebound drags down the gold price. However, the long - term bullish logic remains. - Silver: Although affected by short - term negative factors, the long - term bullish pattern remains, and the gold - silver ratio still has room for repair [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Trump's copper tariff measures have short - term impacts, but the medium - to - long - term supply of the mining end is still tight, and the COMEX - LME copper premium is expected to be quickly repaired. - Aluminum: The market has differences on the medium - term supply situation. The short - term price is affected by emotions, and the Shanghai aluminum has certain support below. - Nickel: The nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern, and the price is in a low - level sideways range [4] Energy and Chemical Products - Lithium carbonate: The fundamentals are still loose, but the supply - demand structure has marginally improved, and the price may stop falling and move sideways. - Industrial silicon: The market furnace - opening number has slightly increased, and the short - term upward momentum is limited under the short - term position limit. - Crude oil: There are uncertainties in the market before the sanctions are implemented, and the risk premium has increased. - Methanol: The production has increased, and if the production and arrival volume continue to rise in early August, the price may weaken. - Polyolefins: The demand off - season is coming to an end, and the price trend in August and September depends on demand. The tariff trend in early August is crucial [4][6][8][10] Steel and Building Materials - Rebar: The market has returned to fundamental pricing, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price may be weakly sideways. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the price may be weakly sideways after a rapid decline. - Iron ore: The anti - involution expectation trading is basically over, and it follows the sector's fluctuations. - Soda ash: The fundamental excess pattern remains, and the price is weakly sideways. - Float glass: The fundamentals are better than soda ash, but the demand is affected by the real - estate cycle, and the price is in a sideways pattern [6][8] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply - demand upward momentum has weakened, and the price is weakly running. - Rubber: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the short - term contradiction is not prominent, and the price downward driving force has weakened [10]
兴业期货日度策略-20250804
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 13:21
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, soda ash, float glass, polyolefins, cotton [2][8][10] - **Bullish**: Rubber [1][2][10] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Stock index, rubber [1][10] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, methanol [1][4][5][6][8][10] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: With the adjustment of market policy expectations, the stock index has corrected recently. The market lacks a trading mainline and returns to the rotation of hot - spot sectors, with a slight decline in capital volume. However, the domestic economy shows resilience, the logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of long - term capital support. The short - term disturbance causes shock and consolidation, and the downside risk of the stock index is relatively controllable [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the expectation of domestic policy intensification continues but weakens. The central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity, and the market demand for old bonds has increased, supporting the price. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was also significantly revised down. Market concerns about the US economy have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has rebounded. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged due to the tight supply at the mine end, but in the short term, the dollar index fluctuates sharply, demand expectations are cautious, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term and mid - term expectations of alumina still have large differences, and market fluctuations may continue. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear, and the mid - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel remain weak, and the price has returned to the low - level range. It lacks the momentum to break through downward and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has tightened slightly. Affected by policies at the lithium resource end, the release of salt - lake production capacity has been further blocked, and the mica material production has also declined. The overall inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The anti - involution expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the implementation of orders and policy rhythm. The short - term price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon [6]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Although the fundamentals of steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) and iron ore face marginal pressure, the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, prices are expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment of coking coal has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Coke's fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, and the futures trend has shown signs of stabilization [8]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Soda ash has a large supply pressure, and glass has relatively better fundamentals than soda ash in the off - season. In the long term, it depends on the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the float glass industry. The strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. - **Methanol**: In early August, methanol prices are supported, but in the second half of the month, as supply rises, prices are expected to fall again [8]. - **Polyolefins**: In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. - **Cotton**: The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. - **Rubber**: The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Last week, the A - share market rose first and then fell, with a decline in trading volume on Friday. The communication, pharmaceutical, and media sectors led the gains, while the non - ferrous metals, coal, and comprehensive finance sectors significantly declined. The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, with IM relatively firm but the discount deepening [1]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bond futures fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity. The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored, and the market demand for old bonds has increased [1]. Precious Metals - The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly low, and the data of the previous two months was revised down, increasing market concerns about the US economy and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The tariff on US copper was much lower than expected, and the premium of COMEX - LME copper quickly converged. The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged, but short - term price pressure has increased [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The price center of alumina has shifted downwards, and Shanghai aluminum has stabilized and fluctuated. The production and operating rate of alumina have continued to rise, and the market expects medium - term supply to be in excess, but the spot circulation is still relatively tight. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore has increased seasonally, and the refining capacity is in excess. The downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures of lithium carbonate have weakened, and the production has declined slightly. The total inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased slightly. The price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production plans of manufacturers in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai in August [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals also face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic remains valid. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range, and attention should be paid to the narrowing opportunity of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to follow the fluctuation of steel products. The long - term drivers are the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the domestic steel industry and the release of overseas new mineral production capacity [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether mines will stop production or limit production due to inspections [8]. - **Coke**: The cost of coking coal has risen faster than the price of coke products, and the coking profit has not been repaired. The downstream demand is still supported, and the fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, with the futures trend showing signs of stabilization [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The daily production has increased, the speculative demand has cooled down, and the warehouse has been passively restocked. The 09 contract short - position is recommended to be held, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Float Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals are relatively better than soda ash in the off - season, but the downstream order has not improved. The short - position is recommended to be held lightly, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. Methanol - In July, the methanol production was flat compared with June. In August, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fall again in the second half of the month [8]. Polyolefins - In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. Cotton - The supply of cotton has problems with the circulation of some warehouse receipts, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. Rubber - The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]
兴业期货日度策略-20250730
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 13:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Stock index futures, silver, propylene, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, float glass, methanol, polyolefin, rubber [1][2][4][7][8][9] - **Bearish**: Treasury bonds [1] - **Sideways**: Gold, copper, aluminum and alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soda ash, crude oil, cotton [1][3][4][5][7][8][9] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: With positive policy expectations, continuous improvement in liquidity, and a relatively stable macro - environment, the stock index is expected to rise further [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market. There may still be upward pressure, and long - term risks may be more significant [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a sideways pattern, lacking a trend - driving force in the short term. Silver is in a bullish pattern, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to converge [1][3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, and nickel are in a sideways pattern due to factors such as uncertain trade policies and complex supply - demand situations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Propylene has strong demand; crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors with risk premiums rising; methanol and polyolefin are bullish due to factors like supply tightening and production capacity delays [2][7][8][9]. - **Steel and Coking**: Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore) are supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions. Coking coal and coke are expected to rise slightly [4][5][7]. - **Building Materials**: Soda ash is in a sideways pattern with an oversupply situation. Float glass is bullish, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure. Rubber's price increase rate has slowed, and its supply - demand is in a double - growth pattern [9]. 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume has recovered, and the futures are stronger than the spot. With a stable macro - environment, policy support, and improved liquidity, it is expected to rise further. Suggest to hold existing long positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market fell significantly. Due to the strong expectation of "anti - involution" policies and positive risk appetite, it is in a bearish pattern. Attention should be paid to central bank actions [1]. Commodity Futures Precious Metals - **Gold**: After the third - round Sino - US trade negotiation, there is no major breakthrough. The short - term lacks a trend - driving force, and it is in a sideways pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions and considering short - term long positions on dips [1][3]. - **Silver**: With the correction of economic expectations and the convergence of the gold - silver ratio, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding long positions in the AG2510 contract [1][2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The details of US copper tariffs are unclear, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is in a sideways pattern [3]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is affected by sentiment and has high price volatility. Aluminum has a tight supply - demand balance in the medium - term, with a more robust support at the bottom [3]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals are not significantly improved, and the surplus situation suppresses prices. It is in a sideways pattern, and the strategy of selling call options can be continued [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Propylene**: Due to strong demand, new long positions can be entered [2]. - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as possible sanctions on Russia, the risk premium has increased. It is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to supply - side risks [7]. - **Methanol**: With planned device overhauls and good olefin demand, the supply is tightening in the short term, and it is in a bullish pattern [7]. - **Polyolefin**: Affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the delay of new production capacity, it is in a bullish pattern [9]. Steel and Coking - **Rebar**: The spot price has rebounded, and the supply - demand structure is healthy. Supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions [4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price has risen, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Supported by environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: With high steel mill profits and healthy supply - demand, it is in a bullish pattern in the short term. Suggest relevant option and arbitrage strategies [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, and the fundamentals support prices. However, due to market uncertainties, short - term unilateral trading should be cautious [7]. - **Coke**: It is expected to follow the trend of coking coal, and the fourth - round price increase is being promoted [7]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, but the short - term surplus has narrowed. It is in a sideways pattern, and new positions should wait and see. The strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals are stronger than soda ash, and the "anti - involution" logic may improve the supply - demand situation. It is in a bullish pattern. Suggest long - position strategies and continue the long - short arbitrage strategy [7]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure due to weak demand. It is in a sideways - bullish pattern [9]. - **Rubber**: The demand is expected to improve, but the supply is also increasing. The price increase rate has slowed, and it is in a slightly bullish pattern [9].
兴业期货日度策略-20250729
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]
兴业期货日度策略-20250718
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 12:33
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the "anti - involution" expectation is positive, and industrial products are generally strong. The A - share market is showing strength, while the bond market is in a high - level shock pattern. Different commodities have different trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Equity Index Futures - The market's long - making sentiment is strengthened, with the trading volume of margin trading funds and northbound funds increasing. Overseas institutions have raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025, and the "anti - involution" expectation continues to ferment. The index futures are expected to be volatile and strong [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market continues to fluctuate. The domestic economic growth is in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to policy intensity and Sino - US trade negotiations. The central bank's large - scale net injection has lowered the capital cost, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate at a high level due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in a high - level shock, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains, but it lacks short - term directional guidance. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver. Silver is expected to be volatile and strong [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - In the short term, the market has a strong expectation of weakening US import demand, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and the trend is upward [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is under medium - term pressure, but the short - term market sentiment is bullish, and the downward trend may be repeated. The short - term upside for Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. Nickel - The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, but the current price is at a low level, and there is no new negative driver. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to hold short positions of call options [4]. Lithium Carbonate - An unexpected event has pushed up the lithium price, but the oversupply situation remains. The weekly output has reached a record high, and the downstream demand is weak. The subsequent price trend depends on whether there are more mines restricting production [4][6]. Silicon Energy (Polysilicon) - The industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations support the price. The overall inventory has declined, and the future market is expected to have a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold the previous strategy [6]. Black Metals Rebar - The spot market has warmed up, and the trading volume has increased. The cost has risen, and the futures price is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has increased, and the overall market sentiment is positive. The cost has risen, and it is recommended to hold the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. Iron Ore - The high - level pig iron production is the core factor. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options and the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The mine - end inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight. It is recommended to hold the long position and consider taking profits according to the inventory and production rate [8]. Coke - The steel mills' profits are good, and the coke price has increased for the first time. The futures price is expected to be strong [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The daily production is high, and the demand is decreasing. The inventory has increased. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract and the long - glass - short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [8]. Float Glass - The fundamentals have improved marginally. The inventory has decreased, and the "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and the long - glass - short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The supply increase and demand peak are in a stalemate, and the oil price will continue to be highly volatile [8]. Methanol - The production has reached the lowest level this year, and the price is supported. The price fluctuation is expected to intensify in August [10]. Polyolefins - The production has increased, and the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to sell call options or short the futures [10]. Cotton - Before the new cotton is on the market, the supply may be tight, which supports the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, which is a negative factor [10]. Rubber - The tire enterprises' production start - up rate has increased, and the price is likely to rise, but the upward drive is uncertain due to seasonal production increase and port inventory pressure [10].
兴业期货日度策略-20250717
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:52
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. Core Viewpoints - The main investment strategies include holding long positions in cotton CF509, maintaining a buy I2509 - sell I2601 positive spread position in iron ore, and holding short positions in alumina AO2509. For other varieties, specific trading strategies are recommended based on their respective fundamentals and market trends [1][2]. - In the short - term, most varieties are expected to show volatile trends. However, from a long - term perspective, the stock index has a clear upward trend, while the trends of other varieties are mainly determined by their supply - demand relationships, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index - The main line of the stock index is not clear yet, and it is in a state of volatile accumulation. Although the market heat has increased significantly after the index broke through key points, the trading main line remains unclear, and the short - term breakthrough momentum is insufficient. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term and has a clear long - term upward trend due to the increasing enthusiasm of international capital for Chinese assets [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market is in a high - level volatile state. The domestic economic growth is basically in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to the intensity of policy reinforcement. The liquidity expectation is cautious due to the tax period. The macro - environment lacks trend - driving factors, and the current low odds and high congestion restrict the further upward space of the bond market [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. Although there are many short - term disturbing factors, the long - term bullish factors for gold prices still hold. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in a narrow - range volatile state. The short - term tariff pressure on copper prices may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and there is still support at the bottom [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, while the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a low - level consolidation state. The supply of nickel resources is relatively abundant, and the demand for downstream stainless steel is weak. The short - term lack of directional driving force is expected to continue the low - level consolidation [4]. - **Lithium**: The lithium price has insufficient upward driving force. The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate remains loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies during the current phased rebound [4]. Silicon Energy - The polysilicon market is expected to have wide - range volatile trends. The supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" production - cut expectation provides support for prices, and the previous strategies can be continued [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The rebar price has strong support at the bottom. The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the furnace material price is relatively firm. It is recommended to continue holding short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The short - term fundamental contradiction of hot - rolled coil accumulates slowly. Although there are some negative factors on the margin, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to continue holding the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile and upward trend. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the inventory is stable. It is recommended to adjust the option strategy and continue holding the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Both coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and upward. The supply of coking coal is tight in the short - term, and the first - round price increase of coke has been gradually implemented, with a positive market outlook [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the long - short game is intense. The arbitrage strategy is temporarily better than the single - side strategy. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract for aggressive investors and continue the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Float Glass**: The short - term fundamentals of float glass change little. The "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation provide support, but the demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and continue the arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The crude oil price is in a high - volatility state. The increase in supply and the peak - season demand are in a stalemate, resulting in high - volatility trends [8]. Methanol - The coastal methanol price is falling, while the inland price has short - term support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - tightening expectation in the coastal area has failed to materialize [8][10]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin price is expected to continue falling. The production enterprise inventory has increased passively, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is decreasing [10]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The supply may be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the textile off - season restricts the price increase [10]. Rubber - The rubber price has limited upward space. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is decreasing, resulting in a supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern [10].
兴业期货日度策略-20250716
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 12:40
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon and cotton are recommended to be held with a bullish mindset, and there are good arbitrage opportunities in iron ore [1] - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation and accumulation of positive factors. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [2] - The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract [2][6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the medium - term tight - balance pattern remaining unchanged [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside, while the medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged [6] - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in a range, and new orders can focus on the opportunity of selling call options at the upper edge of the range [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [8] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported by the expectation of anti - involution production cuts [8] - Steel prices are expected to see a slower upward slope, and the probability of steel futures prices returning to a volatile pattern increases [8] - Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, and strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - Soda ash prices will fluctuate, and a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 can be held [10][11] - Crude oil prices will continue to be highly volatile, with concerns about supply shortages easing [13] - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and a short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline, and short - selling call options on the 09 - contract are recommended [13] - Cotton prices are supported by the expectation of supply tightness at the end of the year, but attention should be paid to the impact of the off - season and other factors [13] - Rubber prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand [13] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the A - share market continued to fluctuate and adjust. The ChiNext Index rose sharply, but the Shanghai Composite Index weakened. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 1.64 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.48 trillion yuan). The communication and computer sectors led the gains, while the coal and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the losses [2] - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the economy showing an overall positive trend. Short - term incremental policies may not be introduced urgently. The market sentiment was boosted, and the trading volume of A - shares increased. The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation [2] Bond Futures - Yesterday, bond futures rebounded across the board. The economic growth is in line with expectations, and the real estate sector is still weak. The market's expectation of policy intensification has turned cautious [2] - The capital market has become looser, and the bond market has rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] Gold and Silver - The US CPI slightly exceeded market expectations, but core inflation was still lower than expected. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in July has cooled down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [2] - The economic data of China and the US show resilience, and there is a driving force for the convergence of the gold - silver ratio. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the money put options on the 10 - contract [6] Copper - Recently, domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly [6] - LME copper inventories continued to increase, and the contango widened. Domestic inventories are still at a low level, and the spot price has a slight premium. The short - term upward pressure on copper prices due to tariffs may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged [6] Aluminum and Alumina - Domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly. There is still uncertainty in US tariffs [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [6] Nickel - The supply of nickel ore and ferronickel has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The demand for stainless steel and ternary batteries is weak [6] - The imbalance between supply and demand in the nickel market remains unchanged. Although there is some support from the Indonesian RKAB policy, there is currently no clear directional driver. Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] Lithium Carbonate - The supply of lithium carbonate remains loose, and the demand increment is relatively limited. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [8] Silicon Energy - There are expectations of production cuts in the silicon energy industry. The inventory of industrial silicon standard warehouse receipts is decreasing, and the downstream of polysilicon shows signs of price increases. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported [8] Steel and Iron Ore - The economic data in June and the second quarter are good in total but poor in structure. The terminal demand expectation has weakened, and the contradiction in the steel market is not significant [8] - The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly and compress steel - making profits. Strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has limited increment, and the demand is good. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - The first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented this week. The spot market of coke is strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [11] Soda Ash and Glass - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the inventory of soda ash plants is increasing. The trading volume of floating glass is relatively stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [10][11] - It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast of global oil demand growth and economic growth in 2025. API data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The concern about supply shortages has eased, and oil prices will continue to be highly volatile [13] Methanol - The operating rate of methanol production enterprises has decreased to 83%, reaching the lowest level this year. The price trend of methanol depends on the arrival volume in August. A short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] Polyolefin - The domestic economy is developing steadily. The futures price of polyolefin has accelerated its decline, and the spot price has a limited decline. The supply will increase at the end of the month, while the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short - sell call options on the 09 - contract [13] Cotton - The domestic manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, and the overall commodity market sentiment is bullish. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight at the end of the year, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Cotton prices are supported by the supply expectation [13] Rubber - The terminal automotive market is in the off - season, and the demand for rubber is hindered. The supply of rubber raw materials is increasing seasonally, and the inventory at ports has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Rubber prices have limited upside space [13]
兴业期货日度策略:反内卷预期暂难证伪,商品整体偏强-20250710
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 12:09
Report Summary 1. Overall Market Outlook - The expectation of "anti-involution" is difficult to disprove, and commodities are generally strong [1]. 2. Variety Analysis 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The stock index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points. The trading volume of the two markets continued to rise to 1.53 trillion yuan. The media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and comprehensive finance sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals led the losses [1]. - As the stock index valuation rises to a high level, market caution has increased. Without new positive news, the market will return to high-level volatility in the short term. Considering the significant impact of the mid-year report performance in July, the IF and IH contracts with clear constituent stock earnings may be more resilient. Overall, although there are still uncertainties in the external environment, the A-share market shows resilience, and the trading volume has increased, with the oscillation center expected to continue to move up [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market remained loose, and the bond market remained at a high level. The bond futures rose slightly yesterday and remained within the range. Domestically, the latest inflation data was still weak. Trump announced a second wave of tariff letters involving eight countries. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believed that tariffs might continue to push up inflation [1]. - The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation, but the capital market remained loose. The equity market did not continue its strength yesterday, reducing the drag on the bond market. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, the bond market has limited directional drivers. However, with an optimistic capital market outlook, the bond market will remain at a high level. But there are still risks of high valuation pressure and high congestion. Continue to monitor the performance of the equity market, and the stock-bond seesaw may continue [1]. 2.3 Gold and Silver Futures - The US government continued to release new tariff policy information, which had limited impact on the market. The logic of factors such as services and inflation that are favorable to gold prices has not been disproven, and the central bank's continuous gold purchase behavior has not ended. In the short term, gold prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at the 68.5% quantile in the past three years. The silver price fluctuates with gold, and after the silver price breaks through, the support around 8500 is strong. Strategically, it is recommended to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver until expiration, or transfer the position to the October contracts [4]. 2.4 Non-Ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The LME copper performed the weakest, and the inventory continued to rise. The Shanghai copper followed the LME copper and fell sharply at the opening yesterday, then oscillated at a low level. The domestic inflation data was still weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The supply at the mine end remained tight, and the demand outlook was still cautious. Affected by Trump's statement of a 50% tariff increase on copper, the COMEX and LME copper prices diverged, with the premium exceeding 25%. However, due to the large inflow of copper in the US, the market's expectation of copper surplus in the US after the tariff implementation increased. The inventory of the three major exchanges has been rising, and the domestic market generally followed the LME, but the decline was slightly smaller. The financial attribute still supports copper prices in the medium to long term, but the tariff policy is uncertain, and the structural mismatch persists, so copper price fluctuations may increase [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina prices continued to be strong, breaking through 3200. The Shanghai aluminum oscillated higher at night. The domestic inflation data was weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The recent strength of alumina prices was mainly due to the "anti-involution" expectation, but the excess capacity situation remained unchanged. The supply of Shanghai aluminum was constrained, and the import profit was inverted. The demand was cautious due to the off-season, and the inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, alumina is temporarily strong due to sentiment, but the upside is uncertain. The medium-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short-term demand and inventory are dragging, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has seasonally recovered, and the port inventory has increased significantly, causing the nickel ore price to decline marginally. In June, the nickel iron production in Indonesia and China decreased by 3.85% month-on-month but increased by 22.21% year-on-year. The supply was relatively abundant, but downstream demand was limited. The price of intermediate products was relatively firm. The nickel fundamentals have not improved, and the off-season demand is not favorable. The supply pressure has increased with the increase in the Philippines' ore supply. Recently, the nickel price has oscillated lower, but the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the demand for MHP, and the price of intermediate products has rebounded. As the nickel price dropped to 119,000 yuan, the downward momentum weakened, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term. The short position of out-of-the-money call options strategy can be continued [4][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite have continued to rise, driving up the lithium price due to increased mining costs. However, the improvement in the lithium carbonate fundamentals is limited. The production capacity of salt lakes has continued to increase seasonally, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has remained at a relatively high level this year. The downstream demand has not increased, and the production schedules of battery cell and cathode enterprises have been mediocre. The traditional off-season will also limit the growth rate of terminal demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is still in the accumulation cycle, and the upside of the price is limited. It is advisable to short at high levels during this stage of the rebound [6]. - **Silicon Energy**: The supply-side reform and industry restructuring expectations of the polysilicon industry have increased significantly due to the policy signal of capacity regulation. The recent strong performance of the polysilicon spot price has further promoted the rise of the polysilicon futures price. In the short term, the sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not fully reflected. Overall, the policy support for the price is strong, and it is advisable to hold the short position of put options [6]. 2.5 Steel and Iron Ore Futures - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar fluctuated slightly yesterday. The trading volume of construction steel decreased to 88,500 tons. The demand in the off-season has no bright spots, and the market drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again. The market expectation is optimistic, but the time for the implementation of supply contraction is uncertain. On the one hand, the profit of electric arc furnaces has recovered, and there is a risk of increased production in the off-season. On the other hand, the profit of long-process steel mills is good, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the rebar futures price will oscillate strongly, with the bottom rising and the upside limited by the electric arc furnace cost. The option-selling strategy is temporarily better than the single-sided futures strategy. It is recommended to continue to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P2900) [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot rolled coil fluctuated yesterday. The demand in the off-season is average, both in reality and expectation. Overseas orders for automobiles and home appliances have weakened, and the domestic "trade-in" policy has limited room. The price difference between domestic and foreign steel has narrowed significantly, and the pressure on direct exports may increase. The market upward drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the expectation of crude steel production reduction has increased. The long-process steel mills are actively producing, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the hot rolled coil futures price will oscillate strongly this week, with the bottom cost rising and the upside limited by the export cost. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see on the single side, and consider continuing to hold the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits on the January contracts [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again, but the time for the implementation of steel mill production cuts is uncertain. In the short term, the profit of steel mills still encourages long-process steel mills to maintain an active production rhythm. The daily output of domestic blast furnace hot metal has declined slowly at a high level. Under the background of high hot metal output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply-demand contradiction of imported iron ore in July is limited. The iron ore price is running strongly, compressing the profit of steel mills. The upside of the iron ore price in the off-season is mainly limited by the resumption of electric arc furnace production and the narrowing of the steel price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which restricts the upside of steel prices. It is advisable to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (I2509-P-700) and continue to hold the iron ore 9-1 positive spread strategy (spread 27.5, +0.5) [8]. 2.6 Coal and Coke Futures - **Coking Coal**: The auction price at the mine mouth has continued to rise, and the replenishment enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises and the willingness of the trading sector to enter the market have continued to increase. It is expected that the raw coal inventory of coal mines will further decrease, and the temporary supply-demand mismatch is still favorable for coal prices. The long position strategy can be continued. Recently, attention should be paid to the production increase progress of mines after the safety production month [8]. - **Coke**: The production enthusiasm of steel mills is good, and the daily output of hot metal has remained at a relatively high level in the off-season. The demand for coke in the furnace is supported, and steel mills are still purchasing raw materials. The port trading activity has also increased, and the spot price has increased. The futures price has also shown a strong trend [8]. 2.7 Soda Ash and Glass Futures - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental negative factors are clear, that is, supply exceeds demand. Yesterday, the daily production of soda ash increased to 102,900 tons (+500 tons). Kunshan produced products last night, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry plans to increase production on the 11th. The demand lacks bright spots, and the daily consumption of rigid demand is about 98,000 tons (including exports). Alkali plants may continue to accumulate inventory passively. However, at the micro level, after the single-sided position of the September contracts of soda ash reached a record high, it has rebounded after three consecutive days of position reduction. The single-sided position is still as high as more than 1.59 million lots (equivalent to 31.8 million tons), and the virtual position ratio is too high. Be vigilant against the risk of short squeeze in the market due to the "anti-involution" expectation or sentiment. It is advisable to hold the short position of the September contracts of soda ash with a stop-profit line. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, glass is stronger than soda ash, and the strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash can be patiently held (spread -112, -13) [8]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The operating production capacity of float glass has remained stable. Yesterday, the average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas decreased to 97% (-5%). The futures price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot purchases based on futures. It is expected that the glass factory will reduce inventory by 1.7 million heavy boxes this week. The main driver of the off-season market comes from the supply side. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the production capacity of glass factories using petroleum coke and natural gas processes has been in a loss state, and the probability of cold repair is increasing. It is believed that the probability of the realization of the supply contraction expectation in the far-month contracts may gradually increase. Strategically, it is recommended to go long on the January contracts at low prices on the single side and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash (spread -112, -13) [8]. 2.8 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market is currently in a stage where OPEC+ is accelerating production increases and the US is in a peak demand season. The market assesses that the excess pressure is relatively limited, but the US API inventory shows a significant accumulation of 7.128 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding expectations, and the monthly spread has started to cool recently. The expectation of tight supply in the US market will be alleviated. It is expected that the short-term rebound space of oil prices is limited, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds [10]. - **Methanol**: This week, the arrival volume was 310,300 (+55,700) tons, with an increase of 126,200 tons in Jiangsu and a decrease of 15,000 tons each in Guangdong and Fujian. Affected by the increase in the arrival volume, the inventory in East China ports increased by 61,000 tons, and that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. Currently, the port inventory has reached the highest level since April but is still at a historical low for the same period. The factory inventory only increased by 4,600 tons. Although the spot trading volume has declined, the production enterprise's operating rate has also decreased. The "anti-involution" has no direct impact on the methanol industry chain for the time being, but the rebound in coal prices and the disappearance of pessimistic sentiment can provide some support for methanol futures [10]. 2.9 Chemical Futures - **Polyolefins**: Although OPEC+ has increased production, tariffs and geopolitical factors have supported the rebound of crude oil prices. This week, the spot trading has been sluggish, and the production enterprise's inventory has increased, with PE increasing by 12.5% and PP increasing by 2%. The social inventory has also increased, with PE increasing by 2.1% and PP increasing by 3.2%. In previous years, the inventory decreased during the same period, but this year it has continued to increase since June, indicating an oversupply situation. Recently, there have been concentrated production cuts in coal mines and new energy metals, triggering expectations of a new round of supply-side reforms, but it is difficult to have a substantial positive impact on polyolefins in the short term, and the price will continue to decline from July to August [10]. 2.10 Agricultural Futures - **Cotton**: In terms of supply, multiple regiments in Xinjiang have been affected by hail, and the damage to cotton fields varies. The weather theme has boosted the cotton price to run strongly. In terms of demand, terminal orders are mainly small and scattered, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. Some enterprises have started to take high-temperature holidays or reduce production capacity due to sales pressure and high temperatures. In terms of inventory, the decline rate of the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June has slowed down compared with last month, but the year-on-year decline in Xinjiang's cotton inventory has increased. Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the end of this year still strongly supports the futures price. It is recommended to continue to hold the previous long positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the rubber price has oscillated and rebounded. However, the automobile market has entered the traditional off-season, and tire enterprises still face inventory reduction pressure, so the demand expectation is not positive. The production in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has increased smoothly during the peak season, the weather conditions in the producing areas are normal, and the negative impact of climate change on rubber tapping operations has gradually weakened. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market has continued to decline. The rubber fundamentals continue to show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, which may limit the upside of the rubber price [10].