Overall Investment Recommendations - The report provides investment strategies for various commodities and financial products, including stocks, bonds, and multiple futures contracts [1]. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market had a narrow - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the North - Securities 50 reaching a new high. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2.64 trillion yuan but remained above 2 trillion. The comprehensive and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [1]. - Stock index futures adjusted following the spot index, with a larger decline in futures than in the spot, and the basis continued to widen. Although there is some resistance to short - term upward movement as the market breaks previous highs, the capital side remains active, and the trading enthusiasm continues to rise. As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, achieving six consecutive increases. Long - term positive factors such as the transfer of household deposits and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market showed signs of stabilization and a slight rebound, with the T - contract performing weakly. The domestic market had a net capital injection, but due to the tax period, the cost of funds continued to rise. Data was scarce, and the expectation of policy intensification remained optimistic [1]. - Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the impact of the domestic monetary policy report, the expectation is relatively cautious. The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, and the market's risk appetite remains optimistic. The bond market is more sensitive to negative news. Although the bond market's recent decline was rapid, new positive factors are limited, and the upward pressure may continue. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Basic Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations remain optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is watching the Fed's stance at the global central bank meeting. The US has expanded the scope of aluminum tariff increases, which has a limited impact on domestic exports. Alumina's over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened significantly, with continuous upward pressure on prices. For Shanghai aluminum, the short - term demand expectation is weak, but the medium - term support is clear [3]. - **Copper**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations are optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is focused on the Fed's attitude. The smelting processing fee is slowly rebounding but remains negative, and the global copper - mine supply shortage persists. Although domestic and overseas refined copper production continues to grow, and there are positive expectations for consumption, the short - term upward momentum is limited, and the price will continue to oscillate. However, in the medium - term, the upward trend is unchanged [3]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is sufficient, and port inventories are accumulating. Although Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mining, the ore price is still supported. The production capacity at the smelting end is abundant, and the trading is dull. Refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory - accumulation trend continues. As the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cools, the nickel price has low volatility, with resistance from over - supply and support from potential ore - supply issues. Selling call options is a relatively favorable strategy [3][4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led some funds to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The API weekly data showed a decline in US crude - oil inventories, but the market reaction was muted. As the peak consumption season for the crude - oil market is ending, the expectation of supply over - capacity is strengthening, and the short - term positive factors are lacking. The oil price will continue to be weak [5]. - **Methanol**: This week, the signing volume of northwest sample enterprises reached the lowest level since May, and the futures price dropped rapidly, reducing the downstream's purchasing willingness. Although there are many new maintenance devices, and the factory operating rate is low, providing support for the spot price, as the negative impact of increased arrivals is gradually released, the further decline space for futures is limited [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Recently, there have been more new maintenance devices for PE, and its operating rate is at a medium level, while PP's maintenance devices have restarted, and its operating rate has returned to a high level. Considering production and new capacity, PE's supply pressure is lower than PP's, and PE's demand is also better. It is recommended to hold a long position in the L - PP spread [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The over - supply situation is obvious, with daily production slightly decreasing to 11.07 million tons, and the far - reaching energy's second - phase device may be put into operation in September, intensifying the over - supply. It is recommended to short the 01 contract. For float glass, real - estate sales and completion are weak, and although the sales - to - production ratio in some regions has increased, without effective supply - side constraints, the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [5]. - **Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, after the coal - mine production self - inspection, the raw - coal output is still low, and the inventory - reduction rate has slowed down. The environmental protection restrictions on steel and coking enterprises have restricted demand, and the coal price is under pressure. For coke, some coking enterprises have received production - restriction notices, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region also have production - reduction expectations. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the price will oscillate and decline [5]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the market's expectation for the new - cotton purchase price is pessimistic. Overseas, the USDA August report adjusted the supply and demand for the 2025/2026 season, and the ending inventory decreased. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, and the downstream industry has slightly improved. The market is watching whether the downstream will continue to improve during the traditional peak season [7]. - **Rubber**: The automotive market benefits from policy support, and tire - enterprise operating rates are good. Although the ANRPC has entered the traditional production - increasing season, the new - rubber output rate is lower than expected, and the raw - material price in the production area is firm. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber is gradually improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the rubber price [7]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The anti - involution policy has no clear implementation signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The fundamentals of rebar are showing more signs of weakening. Regional and phased production restrictions have limited impact on supply, and the crude - steel reduction policy has not been implemented. Steel mills' profits are acceptable, and production is expected to resume after the military - parade production restrictions end. Real - estate data is weak across the board, and the inventory of rebar has started to accumulate rapidly. It is recommended to hold a short position in the 01 contract and pay attention to the support at around 3100 [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the fundamentals of steel products are weakening. The military - parade production restrictions in the north mainly affected sintering and rolling processes, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is likely to resume after the restrictions end. The high coil - to - rebar spread may prompt the transfer of molten iron from rebar to hot - rolled coil. Although the current demand for plates is more resilient than that for construction steel, the inventory - accumulation rate of plates has also accelerated. The downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil price is increasing, and the near - term contract is weaker than the far - term one [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The military - parade production restrictions mainly affected sintering and rolling, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is expected to resume after the restrictions end. However, the weakening of the steel fundamentals may put pressure on the iron - ore price. It is expected that the iron - ore price will follow the steel price, with the 01 - contract price ranging from 750 to 810. It is recommended to short at high prices within this range [4][5].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The upward trend of stock indices is clear in the medium and long term, while the bond market is under adjustment pressure. In the commodity market, different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile pattern [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The trading - type funds are active, and the abundant liquidity drives the stock indices to strengthen. With the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, the market sentiment is high. In the medium and long term, factors such as the transfer of household deposits, the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits, and continuous policy support will continue, so the long - term holding of stock index futures is recommended [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak state. The market's risk preference is optimistic, and the bond market sentiment is fragile. The risk of bond market adjustment may not be completely eliminated, especially for long - term bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - **Gold**: The price is in a high - level volatile range. The market's prediction of the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting and the marginal changes in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [4]. - **Silver**: It maintains a bullish pattern. Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has cooled marginally, it is still a high - probability event. The macro - environment is generally favorable for the upward movement of the silver price [4]. - **Copper**: The price is in a volatile pattern. The medium - term upward driving force remains, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward momentum needs new drivers [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is clear, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4]. - **Nickel**: The price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The supply is not tightened, the demand elasticity is limited, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space. It is recommended to hold the short - call option [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resource end may still be disturbed. Although the current fundamentals are loose, there is still an expectation of resource tightening in the market, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely at a high level [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Due to serious oversupply, new short positions are recommended [2]. - **Silicon Energy**: The price of polysilicon has strong support. The price increase of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain supports the profit of upstream raw materials. Policy - favorable sentiment has fermented again [6]. - **Steel and Minerals** - **Rebar**: The fundamentals are weakening. The probability of the price oscillating downward has increased. It is recommended to adjust the short - put option position to the short - call option position [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term price is likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is under pressure to fall, and the price of coke is likely to follow the coking coal price. [ - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in a state of strong expectation and weak reality, showing a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for soda ash and maintain an optimistic view on the 01 contract of glass. - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a bearish pattern. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply surplus expectation is strengthening. - **Methanol**: The coastal supply is in surplus, and the price is in a bearish pattern. - **Polyolefins**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply and demand have been adjusted, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is concerned about the marginal improvement of downstream demand in the peak season. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand structure is improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the price.

Group 1: Overall Strategy Recommendations - Hold existing long positions in the IF2509 contract of the CSI 300 Index due to continuous improvement in liquidity and high bullish sentiment [1] - Adopt a long - position strategy for liquefied petroleum gas and Shanghai aluminum, and expect Shanghai nickel to remain weak [1] - Hold short - put options on the PS2511 - P - 45000 polycrystalline silicon contract as downstream prices provide strong support [2] - Initiate new long positions in the P2601 palm oil contract as positive factors from the production area continue to emerge [2] Group 2: Equity Index Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new stage closing high and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days. The communication and non - bank financial sectors led the gains, while the banking and steel sectors declined [1] - In July, domestic economic indicators fluctuated, with the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment lower than expected, which increased market expectations for incremental policies. With the continuous rise of the stock market and the accumulation of profit - making effects, the equity index is expected to remain strong under the boost of liquidity [1] Group 3: Treasury Bond Analysis - Bond market sentiment remained fragile last week, with more significant adjustments in long - term bonds. Domestic economic data was still mixed, but market optimism continued, and expectations for additional stimulus policies remained. The central bank's net injection in the open market kept the money market stable, but the overall cost of funds increased. The market's expectations for monetary policy easing turned cautious, and the bond market faced adjustment pressure [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range. The US - Russia summit over the weekend did not reach an agreement, but it may have released positive signals, which is marginally beneficial to global risk appetite. There is currently insufficient upward momentum for gold prices [3] - Silver remains in a bullish pattern. The confidence in a "soft landing" of the US economy is still significantly higher than that of a "recession." Although the expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed in September has cooled, an interest rate cut within the year is still highly likely, and the direction of US fiscal policy easing is clear. Hold short - put options on the silver 10 - contract and long positions in silver [3] Group 5: Non - ferrous Metals Analysis - Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Economic data is still mixed, but expectations for additional policies remain optimistic. The impact of tariffs has weakened, and there are still differences in the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper mines in Chile is resuming, but the tight supply situation at the mine end has not improved. The demand during the peak season and policy expectations still support consumption, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so new driving forces are needed for further upward movement [3] - The expansion of the US aluminum tariff scope has limited impact. Alumina prices fluctuated last week, and the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum prices slightly increased. The market's expectations for additional policies remain optimistic, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. The expansion of the US aluminum tariff scope has limited impact, and the current US aluminum production capacity is limited, with a high degree of import dependence. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate, while Shanghai aluminum has clear support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [3] - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in a range. The supply of nickel mines in Indonesia is tight, while the supply from the Philippines has increased seasonally. The smelting sector is in an oversupply situation, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is still in the off - season. The demand for nickel from ternary batteries is limited by its weak market share. Although there are some supporting factors such as macro - policy expectations and a weak US dollar index, there is no clear directional driving force [3] Group 6: Lithium and Silicon Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The suspension of the Jiaxiaowo mine has been realized, and the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly. The production of the smelting sector has increased, and the inventory pressure is still high. However, considering the continuous increase in futures trading volume and open interest, the market sentiment is still positive. Attention should be paid to the production situation of mines in Yichun [4] - Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in an oscillating pattern. For industrial silicon, supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory has remained stable, with no strong driving force. The manufacturers' price - holding sentiment is strong, resulting in a stalemate between supply and demand. For polycrystalline silicon, although some enterprises in Xinjiang have stopped production, the overall supply is still increasing. Downstream component prices have risen, and there are still expectations for further price increases. Policy - related positive sentiment has re - emerged, and overall prices are strongly supported [4] Group 7: Steel and Iron Ore Analysis - Steel prices are expected to oscillate. For rebar, the long - term logic of anti - involution is difficult to disprove, but the fundamentals have shown signs of weakening. Environmental protection restrictions before the military parade may affect blast furnace production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, but the current steel mill profits are acceptable, which may stimulate the production enthusiasm of non - restricted areas. Rebar inventory has begun to accumulate rapidly. Without policies to reduce crude steel production, the contraction of steel - making profits is a more certain direction after the end of the military parade restrictions. Rebar futures prices are expected to continue to operate in the range of [3150, 3300] [4] - For hot - rolled coils, the fundamentals and policy are divergent. The long - term logic of anti - involution is difficult to disprove, but the steel fundamentals have weakened marginally. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils and other plate products are relatively better than those of construction steel. Environmental protection restrictions before the military parade may ease the inventory accumulation pressure of plate products. However, if there are no strict policies to reduce crude steel production, the contraction of steel - making profits is still a likely direction. Hot - rolled coil futures prices are expected to operate in the range of [3350, 3500] [4] - Iron ore prices are expected to turn to range - bound operation. The environmental protection restrictions in the north before the military parade may affect iron ore demand, but the relatively high steel mill profits and the certain复产 direction after the end of the restrictions limit the downward space of iron ore prices. Iron ore futures prices are expected to operate in the range of [750, 810] for the 01 contract [4][5] Group 8: Coal and Coke Analysis - Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate. The exchange has strengthened risk - control measures in the futures market, and the coking coal futures price fluctuations have increased. The fundamentals are improving, but the rate of inventory reduction at the mine end has slowed down, and the upward trend of coal prices is expected to slow down. Attention should be paid to the results of the energy bureau's inspection of coal mine production and the proportion of expected shutdown mines [5] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate. After six rounds of price increases, the coking profit has been repaired, and the daily production of coke has increased slightly. The impact of production restrictions on Shandong coking enterprises has not yet appeared, and the current fundamentals of coke show a double - increase pattern. However, environmental protection restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the second half of the month are expected to affect both supply and demand [5] Group 9: Chemical Products Analysis - Oil prices are in a bearish pattern. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia may help promote the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Major institutions have significantly raised their forecasts for supply surpluses, and oil prices are expected to remain weak [5] - Methanol prices are in a bearish pattern. The overseas methanol plant operating rate has remained at 72%. The spot price of methanol in East China has fallen due to increased arrivals. The futures 09 contract has accelerated its decline, and the basis has returned to a reasonable level. If the planned restart of maintenance devices goes smoothly, production will increase significantly, but there are still new maintenance plans. Wait for the price to stabilize before selling put options or taking long positions [6] - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate. After the end of the centralized maintenance period, polyolefin production has returned to a high level, and demand is about to enter the peak season. There are no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. If there are no extreme movements in coal or oil prices, polyolefin futures are expected to continue to oscillate. After the release of oil - related negative news this week, sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options. The spread between L and PP is expected to further widen from September to October [6] Group 10: Agricultural Products Analysis - Cotton prices are expected to have limited upward space in the short term. The USDA report has reduced the production forecast for the 2025/26 season, which has supported cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton market is still in the off - season, and there is no obvious improvement in yarn mill orders. The pre - hedging orders of ginneries under the expectation of a bumper harvest may put pressure on the market, and the peak - season expectation from September to October has not yet been reflected [6] - Rubber prices are cautiously bullish. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased, which has dragged down production line operations, but they are still at a relatively high level. The all - steel tire inventory has decreased smoothly, and production enthusiasm is high. The demand for rubber is expected to improve marginally. Although the rubber - tapping season has entered the production - increasing period, the raw material supply has not increased as expected, and the purchase price has slightly increased. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber has continued to improve, and the port inventory has decreased rapidly, providing support for rubber prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].

Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways pattern [1] - **Gold**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - **Silver**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - **Copper**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Sideways pattern [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Sideways [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern [7] - **Methanol**: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - **Polyolefins**: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern [9] - **Rubber**: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - **Precious Metals**: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - **Crude Oil**: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - **Methanol**: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - **Rubber**: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories **Equity Index Futures** - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] **Treasury Bonds** - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] **Precious Metals** - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] **Lithium Carbonate** - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] **Silicon Energy** - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] **Steel and Iron Ore** - **Rebar**: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - **Iron Ore**: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] **Soda Ash and Float Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] **Crude Oil** - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] **Methanol** - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] **Polyolefins** - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] **Cotton** - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] **Rubber** - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, and long positions should be held; commodity futures such as Shanghai Aluminum and polysilicon continue to show a strong trend [1] - The bond market may continue to operate at a high level, and the prices of precious metals are running strongly; the copper market has short - term upward pressure, and the aluminum market has a clear medium - term long position pattern; the nickel market has limited upward space [1][4] - The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate shows signs of improvement; the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are supported; the prices of steel products are strongly supported; the prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile state [5][6][7] - The fundamentals of soda ash and float glass are bearish in the short term, and the glass price may turn around in the long term; crude oil is weakly operating in the short term; methanol and polyolefin are in a volatile pattern [7][8][9] - Cotton is weakly operating, and rubber is expected to rebound in the short term [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - The stock index continued to rise steadily on Wednesday, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The long - making sentiment in the market was strengthened, and the leverage funds accelerated to enter the market. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and the long positions of IF2509 in the CSI 300 Index should be held [1] Bond Futures - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the inflation pressure still exists, and the central bank's open - market operations have a net withdrawal, but the capital is still loose. The bond market is difficult to turn around, and there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to operate at a high level [1] Precious Metals - After Trump announced a series of important news, the short - term upward momentum of gold prices has increased. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold long positions in silver [4] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price continued to fluctuate within the range. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the supply side is tense due to the Chilean copper mine incident, and the demand side is cautious. The mine - end disturbances and the weakening of the US dollar index support the copper price, but the demand concerns still drag it down, and there is short - term upward pressure [4] Aluminum - The alumina price is slightly higher, and the market has an expectation of medium - term surplus, but the low warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price. The demand for Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be cautious in the off - season, but the supply constraint limits the inventory accumulation pressure. The long - position pattern of Shanghai Aluminum in the medium term remains unchanged, and the long positions of AL2510 should be held [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel is loose, the demand has no significant improvement, and the high inventory pressure of refined nickel remains unchanged. Although the nickel price has rebounded at a low level under the influence of the macro - situation, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold short - position call options [4] Chemical Products Lithium Carbonate - Due to the influence of policies on the lithium resource end, the weekly output of lithium carbonate has decreased, the inventory accumulation pressure has been relieved, and the demand expectation has turned positive. The supply - demand structure shows signs of improvement, and the renewal result of the mining license of Jiuxiwo Mine needs to be closely watched this week [6] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, the supply is in a passive contraction state, and the fundamentals are supported. The spot price of polysilicon has risen significantly, with strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs to be concerned [6] Steel and Iron Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar continued to rise, the trading volume decreased slightly, the supply - demand contradiction accumulated slowly, and the inventory was at a low level. The supply is restricted by environmental protection and anti - involution policies, and the cost is supported by the rise in coking coal and coke prices. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, and the fundamentals are tough. The supply is restricted, the cost is supported, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the 1 - contract on dips [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection restrictions and weak basis, while the 1 - contract is supported by positive expectations. However, the upward space of the iron ore price is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection restriction expectations are fulfilled [6] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The market has an expectation of supply tightening, but the full implementation probability of reducing coal mine production hours is low, and the influence of expected sentiment on coal prices is greater than the fundamentals. Be wary of the risk of over - rising prices [7] Coke - Five rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, the supply and demand are expected to increase, the spot market trading is active, and the futures price is stable and fluctuating strongly [7] Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. The daily production is stable, the supply constraint is insufficient, the demand has no improvement, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 09 - contract [7] Float Glass - The downstream orders of glass deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, the replenishment willingness is limited, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. In the long term, if the supply contraction expectation is fulfilled, the glass price may turn around. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 9 - contract on dips and lay out long positions on the 01 - contract [7] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors increase the probability of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the short - term risk premium decreases. Although the inventory data is positive, the market reaction is insufficient, and the crude oil is weakly operating [7] Methanol - The port inventory has increased, and the production enterprise inventory has decreased. The coastal supply is loose, and the inland supply is tight. It is recommended to sell an option straddle combination [9] Polyolefins - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyolefins have increased, indicating a loose supply. The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn to a volatile and slightly strong state [9] Cotton - The cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with a high probability of increased production. The overseas cotton production area has good weather, but the Sino - US trade situation restricts cotton exports. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The cotton is weakly operating [9] Rubber - The sales of passenger cars are good, the tire enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the demand expectation is turning warm. The raw material price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling and rebound in stages [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index futures, coking coal, coke, rubber [1][8][10] - Sideways pattern: Treasury bonds, gold, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), soda ash, float glass, crude oil, methanol, polyolefins, cotton [1][4][6][8][10] - Bearish bias: Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel), lithium carbonate [4] - Bullish pattern for silver [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has entered an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing. The risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged for A - shares, and the downside risk of the index is relatively controllable. For bonds, the macro - face turnaround needs further confirmation, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. For precious metals, the short - term dollar rebound affects gold, but the long - term bullish logic for silver remains. For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term impacts such as tariffs, the medium - to - long - term supply pattern varies by metal. For energy and chemical products, the supply and demand and market sentiment vary, with some facing supply - side constraints and others with demand - side uncertainties. For steel and building materials, the market has returned to fundamental pricing, and the supply - demand contradictions are different for each product. For agricultural products, the supply and demand situation affects the price trends, with some facing weakening upward momentum and others having certain demand support [1][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Futures General - The market has shifted to an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing [1] Index Futures - Risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair for A - shares remains unchanged. The A - share profit bottom is emerging, and the market trading is still active. The downside risk of the index is relatively controllable [1] Treasury Bonds - The latest PMI data is below expectations, and the market optimism has weakened. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. The upward movement of the bond market needs further confirmation, and short - duration bonds perform relatively stably [1] Precious Metals - Gold: The US economy is cooling moderately, the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates in the short term, and the short - term dollar rebound drags down the gold price. However, the long - term bullish logic remains. - Silver: Although affected by short - term negative factors, the long - term bullish pattern remains, and the gold - silver ratio still has room for repair [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Trump's copper tariff measures have short - term impacts, but the medium - to - long - term supply of the mining end is still tight, and the COMEX - LME copper premium is expected to be quickly repaired. - Aluminum: The market has differences on the medium - term supply situation. The short - term price is affected by emotions, and the Shanghai aluminum has certain support below. - Nickel: The nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern, and the price is in a low - level sideways range [4] Energy and Chemical Products - Lithium carbonate: The fundamentals are still loose, but the supply - demand structure has marginally improved, and the price may stop falling and move sideways. - Industrial silicon: The market furnace - opening number has slightly increased, and the short - term upward momentum is limited under the short - term position limit. - Crude oil: There are uncertainties in the market before the sanctions are implemented, and the risk premium has increased. - Methanol: The production has increased, and if the production and arrival volume continue to rise in early August, the price may weaken. - Polyolefins: The demand off - season is coming to an end, and the price trend in August and September depends on demand. The tariff trend in early August is crucial [4][6][8][10] Steel and Building Materials - Rebar: The market has returned to fundamental pricing, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price may be weakly sideways. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the price may be weakly sideways after a rapid decline. - Iron ore: The anti - involution expectation trading is basically over, and it follows the sector's fluctuations. - Soda ash: The fundamental excess pattern remains, and the price is weakly sideways. - Float glass: The fundamentals are better than soda ash, but the demand is affected by the real - estate cycle, and the price is in a sideways pattern [6][8] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply - demand upward momentum has weakened, and the price is weakly running. - Rubber: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the short - term contradiction is not prominent, and the price downward driving force has weakened [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, soda ash, float glass, polyolefins, cotton [2][8][10] - **Bullish**: Rubber [1][2][10] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Stock index, rubber [1][10] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, methanol [1][4][5][6][8][10] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: With the adjustment of market policy expectations, the stock index has corrected recently. The market lacks a trading mainline and returns to the rotation of hot - spot sectors, with a slight decline in capital volume. However, the domestic economy shows resilience, the logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of long - term capital support. The short - term disturbance causes shock and consolidation, and the downside risk of the stock index is relatively controllable [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the expectation of domestic policy intensification continues but weakens. The central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity, and the market demand for old bonds has increased, supporting the price. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was also significantly revised down. Market concerns about the US economy have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has rebounded. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged due to the tight supply at the mine end, but in the short term, the dollar index fluctuates sharply, demand expectations are cautious, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term and mid - term expectations of alumina still have large differences, and market fluctuations may continue. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear, and the mid - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel remain weak, and the price has returned to the low - level range. It lacks the momentum to break through downward and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has tightened slightly. Affected by policies at the lithium resource end, the release of salt - lake production capacity has been further blocked, and the mica material production has also declined. The overall inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The anti - involution expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the implementation of orders and policy rhythm. The short - term price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon [6]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Although the fundamentals of steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) and iron ore face marginal pressure, the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, prices are expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment of coking coal has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Coke's fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, and the futures trend has shown signs of stabilization [8]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. Soda ash has a large supply pressure, and glass has relatively better fundamentals than soda ash in the off - season. In the long term, it depends on the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the float glass industry. The strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. - **Methanol**: In early August, methanol prices are supported, but in the second half of the month, as supply rises, prices are expected to fall again [8]. - **Polyolefins**: In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. - **Cotton**: The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. - **Rubber**: The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Last week, the A - share market rose first and then fell, with a decline in trading volume on Friday. The communication, pharmaceutical, and media sectors led the gains, while the non - ferrous metals, coal, and comprehensive finance sectors significantly declined. The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, with IM relatively firm but the discount deepening [1]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bond futures fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising. The macro - environment has limited new drivers, and the central bank still clearly intends to protect the liquidity. The VAT on treasury bond interest income has been restored, and the market demand for old bonds has increased [1]. Precious Metals - The US July non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly low, and the data of the previous two months was revised down, increasing market concerns about the US economy and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold prices are strongly supported, and silver remains in a bullish pattern [1][4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The tariff on US copper was much lower than expected, and the premium of COMEX - LME copper quickly converged. The mid - term upward pattern remains unchanged, but short - term price pressure has increased [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The price center of alumina has shifted downwards, and Shanghai aluminum has stabilized and fluctuated. The production and operating rate of alumina have continued to rise, and the market expects medium - term supply to be in excess, but the spot circulation is still relatively tight. The short - term demand for Shanghai aluminum is cautious, but the supply - side constraints are clear [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore has increased seasonally, and the refining capacity is in excess. The downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures of lithium carbonate have weakened, and the production has declined slightly. The total inventory has started to decrease, and lithium prices are expected to stop falling and fluctuate [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased slightly. The price fluctuates following the trend of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production plans of manufacturers in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai in August [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic has not been falsified. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals also face marginal pressure, but the long - term anti - involution logic remains valid. In August, the price is expected to operate within a range, and attention should be paid to the narrowing opportunity of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to follow the fluctuation of steel products. The long - term drivers are the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the domestic steel industry and the release of overseas new mineral production capacity [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the coal price is supported by fundamentals in the short term and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether mines will stop production or limit production due to inspections [8]. - **Coke**: The cost of coking coal has risen faster than the price of coke products, and the coking profit has not been repaired. The downstream demand is still supported, and the fifth round of price increase has basically been implemented, with the futures trend showing signs of stabilization [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The daily production has increased, the speculative demand has cooled down, and the warehouse has been passively restocked. The 09 contract short - position is recommended to be held, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. - **Float Glass**: The market has returned to the fundamental pricing logic. The fundamentals are relatively better than soda ash in the off - season, but the downstream order has not improved. The short - position is recommended to be held lightly, and the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 is recommended [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production increases, and the market is worried about the economy. In the short term, crude oil prices may be weak [8]. Methanol - In July, the methanol production was flat compared with June. In August, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fall again in the second half of the month [8]. Polyolefins - In July, the production of plastics and PP increased. In August, production is expected to increase further. The cost side lacks support, and the possibility of a non - peak season this year is relatively high [10]. Cotton - The supply of cotton has problems with the circulation of some warehouse receipts, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum at both the supply and demand ends has weakened, and cotton is running weakly [10]. Rubber - The traditional production - increasing season of ANRPC has a slow recovery rhythm, while the tire production line starts well, and the consumption growth rate may have an incremental expectation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Stock index futures, silver, propylene, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), coking coal, coke, float glass, methanol, polyolefin, rubber [1][2][4][7][8][9] - **Bearish**: Treasury bonds [1] - **Sideways**: Gold, copper, aluminum and alumina, nickel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soda ash, crude oil, cotton [1][3][4][5][7][8][9] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: With positive policy expectations, continuous improvement in liquidity, and a relatively stable macro - environment, the stock index is expected to rise further [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market. There may still be upward pressure, and long - term risks may be more significant [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a sideways pattern, lacking a trend - driving force in the short term. Silver is in a bullish pattern, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to converge [1][3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, and nickel are in a sideways pattern due to factors such as uncertain trade policies and complex supply - demand situations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Propylene has strong demand; crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors with risk premiums rising; methanol and polyolefin are bullish due to factors like supply tightening and production capacity delays [2][7][8][9]. - **Steel and Coking**: Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore) are supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions. Coking coal and coke are expected to rise slightly [4][5][7]. - **Building Materials**: Soda ash is in a sideways pattern with an oversupply situation. Float glass is bullish, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure. Rubber's price increase rate has slowed, and its supply - demand is in a double - growth pattern [9]. 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume has recovered, and the futures are stronger than the spot. With a stable macro - environment, policy support, and improved liquidity, it is expected to rise further. Suggest to hold existing long positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market fell significantly. Due to the strong expectation of "anti - involution" policies and positive risk appetite, it is in a bearish pattern. Attention should be paid to central bank actions [1]. Commodity Futures Precious Metals - **Gold**: After the third - round Sino - US trade negotiation, there is no major breakthrough. The short - term lacks a trend - driving force, and it is in a sideways pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions and considering short - term long positions on dips [1][3]. - **Silver**: With the correction of economic expectations and the convergence of the gold - silver ratio, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding long positions in the AG2510 contract [1][2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The details of US copper tariffs are unclear, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is in a sideways pattern [3]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is affected by sentiment and has high price volatility. Aluminum has a tight supply - demand balance in the medium - term, with a more robust support at the bottom [3]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals are not significantly improved, and the surplus situation suppresses prices. It is in a sideways pattern, and the strategy of selling call options can be continued [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Propylene**: Due to strong demand, new long positions can be entered [2]. - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as possible sanctions on Russia, the risk premium has increased. It is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to supply - side risks [7]. - **Methanol**: With planned device overhauls and good olefin demand, the supply is tightening in the short term, and it is in a bullish pattern [7]. - **Polyolefin**: Affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the delay of new production capacity, it is in a bullish pattern [9]. Steel and Coking - **Rebar**: The spot price has rebounded, and the supply - demand structure is healthy. Supported by the "anti - involution" logic and upcoming environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern. Suggest holding short - put option positions [4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price has risen, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Supported by environmental protection restrictions, it is in a bullish pattern [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: With high steel mill profits and healthy supply - demand, it is in a bullish pattern in the short term. Suggest relevant option and arbitrage strategies [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, and the fundamentals support prices. However, due to market uncertainties, short - term unilateral trading should be cautious [7]. - **Coke**: It is expected to follow the trend of coking coal, and the fourth - round price increase is being promoted [7]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, but the short - term surplus has narrowed. It is in a sideways pattern, and new positions should wait and see. The strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be continued [7]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals are stronger than soda ash, and the "anti - involution" logic may improve the supply - demand situation. It is in a bullish pattern. Suggest long - position strategies and continue the long - short arbitrage strategy [7]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton has a high yield expectation, but the industry is still under pressure due to weak demand. It is in a sideways - bullish pattern [9]. - **Rubber**: The demand is expected to improve, but the supply is also increasing. The price increase rate has slowed, and it is in a slightly bullish pattern [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]