兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.10 1. 金银比偏高，白银向上修复估值，白银 AG2508 轻仓试多； 2. 供给过剩格局并未改善，焦煤 JM2509 前空持有； 3. 前期利空消化，工业硅 SI2508-P-7400 卖出看跌期权持有。 兴业期货有限公司 CHINA INDUSTRIAL FUTURES LIMITED 日度策略 | | 虑到美国减税法案已进入参议院投票环节，美国财政赤字易增难 | 震荡偏强 | 投资咨询： | 投资咨询： | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 减，且下半年美国经济阶段性类滞涨的风险依然存在。大周期依 | | Z0014895 | Z0014895 | | | 旧利好金价。预计短期金价走势偏震荡，中长期金价中枢仍将上 | | | | | | 移。策略上依托长期均线回调买入，或者继续持有卖出虚值看跌 | | | | | | 期权。金银比偏高，白银估值相对偏低，若金价保持强势，白银 | | | | | | 存在向上修复估值驱动。谨慎者仍可持有卖出虚值看跌期权，激 | | | | | | 进者轻仓逢回调试多白银 AG2508 合约。 | | ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.09 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：纯碱、氧化铝及橡胶延续空头思路。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 配置价值持续提升 | | 投资咨询部 F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 上周 A 股市场偏强运行，周五沪深两市成交额小幅回落至 1.18 | | | | | | （前值 1.32）万亿元。从行业来看，上周通信、有色金属板块领涨， | | | | | | 家电、汽车行业跌幅居前。股指期货随现货走强，IC、IM 基差较前 | | | | | | 一周略有走阔，远月合约维持深度贴水状态。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 6 月 A 股开局向好，科技股回暖带动市场情绪转暖，资金量能 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | 震荡偏强 | | | | | 小幅提振。海外宏观扰动降低全球经济增长预期，但在政策托底、 | | | | | | ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.06 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：白银相对坚挺，氧化铝、尿素承压。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 中美谈话再传积极信号，风险偏好继续回升 本周以来 A 股市场持续走强，资金量能小幅提升，虽然海外宏 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 周四 A 股市场涨势延续，创业板继续领涨，沪深两市成交额提 | | | | | | 升至 1.32（前值 1.18）万亿元。从行业来看，TMT、金融板块领 | | | | | | 涨，农林牧渔、商贸零售行业领跌。股指期货随现货走强，IC、IM | | | | | | 近月合约基差逐步修复，但远月合约仍处于深度贴水状态。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | 震荡 | | | | | 观扰动频发，但国内市场依旧表现出稳定的经济和政策预期。昨晚 | | F3037345 | ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.05 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：焦煤、纯碱及 PTA 基本面驱动偏空。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 特朗普"美丽大法案"或加快全球资金再布局 | 震荡 | | | | | 周三 A 股市场整体反弹，创业板、小微盘风格延续强势，沪深 | | | | | | 两市成交额提升至 1.18（前值 1.16）万亿元。从行业来看，零售 | | | | | | 商贸、轻工制造板块领涨，交通运输、国防军工行业小幅收跌。股 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 指期货方面，lC、IM 延续相对强势，但远月合约贴水回归显著低 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 位。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 高盛表示，特朗普的"美丽大法案"的第 899 条款，赋予美国 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 对拥有美国投资的外国人征收最高 20% ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.04 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：橡胶、工业硅上方压力明确，烧碱延续弱势。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 低量能状态延续 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 周一 A 股市场低开高走，个股涨多跌少，沪深两市成交额维持 | | | | | | 在 1.16 万亿元左右。从行业来看，农林牧渔、银行板块领涨，家 | | | | | | 电、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。股指期货方面，小微盘风格带动 IC、 | | | | | | IM 走强，现货指数涨幅大于期货，贴水再度加深。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 近期关税政策的不确定性对市场风险偏好有所压制，资金量能 | 震荡 | | | | | 延续低位震荡，但在政策托底和耐心资本入市的不断推进下，A 股 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.05.29 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：焦煤、玻璃、甲醇下行驱动明确。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 1.供给持续过剩，焦煤 JM2509 前空持有； 2.需求预期悲观，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 商贸零售、煤炭板块领涨，基础化工、农林牧渔行业跌幅居前。股 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 量能不足，震荡延续 周三 A 股窄幅震荡，红利指数小幅收涨，沪深两市成交额维持 | | | | | | 在 1.03（前值 1.02）万亿元的低位水平。从行业来看，综合金融、 | | | | | | 指期货随现货指数震荡收跌，IC、IM 期货跌幅小于现货，基差小 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | 股指 | 幅收敛，但远月合约仍处于深度贴水状态。 | 震荡 | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 当前市场延续缩量震荡趋势，红利防御与科技成长风格快速轮 | | F3037 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.05.22 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：氧化铝、黄金偏强，工业硅跌势未止。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 1.矿端扰动或继续发酵，短期多头情绪偏强，氧化铝 AO2509 前多持有； 2.美元资产走弱，沪金 AU2508 前多持有； 3.供应端持续过剩，工业硅持有卖出 SI2507-C-9000 看涨期权头寸。 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 下行风险持续减弱，上行仍待量能累积 | 震荡 | | | | | 周三 A 股延续震荡收涨，创业板、红利风格走强，沪深两市成 | | | | | | 交额维持在 1.21 万亿元左右。从行业来看，煤炭、有色金属板块 | | | | | | 领涨，金融、电子、纺服行业跌幅居前。股指期货方面，IF、IH、 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | IC 震荡偏强，IM 小幅收跌，各期指基差小幅走阔，IC、IM 延续深 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 度贴水。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the commodity futures market, cotton has strong upward momentum, while new - energy metals continue to decline [1]. - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation, but the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. - The bond market has a strong profit - taking sentiment, and there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects. Caution is still needed [2]. - Gold prices are expected to be strong due to the escalation of the Gaza conflict and other factors. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term oversupply situation, and the price game intensifies. The price of Shanghai aluminum continues to oscillate strongly [4]. - Nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range as the demand enters the off - season, and there are both supporting and suppressing factors [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the demand increment is limited, so the price is expected to be weak [4]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend due to the imbalance between supply and demand [6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and iron ore has a long - term oversupply situation [6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [6][8]. - The prices of soda ash and float glass are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [8]. - Crude oil prices may rebound in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. - The polyester market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. - Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline due to cost and supply factors despite some demand improvements [10]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline as demand returns to a low level, and the rebound height is limited [10]. - Cotton prices are supported by the expected increase in export orders [10]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be weak due to the increase in supply and decrease in demand [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, A - shares oscillated strongly, with small - and micro - cap stocks performing well. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.21 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.12 trillion yuan). The media and commerce and retail sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, coal, and real estate sectors declined slightly. Stock index futures rose with the spot index, with IM and IF leading the gains. After the contract roll - over, the spread decreased significantly, and the basis maintained a differentiated state of being stable in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Although there is a lack of significant fundamental and policy - driven support in the market recently, A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation under the promotion of long - term financial market - stabilizing policies. However, the market volume remains low, and structural differences still exist. Attention should be paid to the low - level long - entry opportunities for IM and IF [2]. Treasury Bonds - The LPR was lowered as expected, and the bond market had a strong profit - taking sentiment. Yesterday, treasury bond futures opened higher in the morning and then oscillated downward, with most contracts closing slightly lower. In terms of the macro - economy, domestic economic data is average, and there is no new progress in Sino - US trade relations, with medium - term uncertainties remaining. In terms of liquidity, the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected, but it was less than the deposit - rate cut. The bond market shows a trend of "good news exhausted." Although long - term interest rates are expected to decline, there are significant uncertainties in both the macro and capital aspects of the bond market. Under the high - valuation pattern, the market is greatly affected by capital - market expectations, and overall caution is still needed [2]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - The escalation of the Gaza conflict has led to a resurgence of geopolitical risks, disturbing the market. The future US tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the US still faces risks of economic stagflation and government debt pressure. The risks of restructuring the global trade pattern and monetary system under the trend of anti - globalization have not been eliminated. In the long - term, the situation is favorable for gold prices, and the support for gold prices near the long - term moving average is evident. The gold - silver ratio is high, and silver follows the trend of gold. For cautious investors, selling out - of - the - money put options or buying on dips can be considered [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Yesterday, copper prices oscillated higher in the morning and remained strong at night. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of supply and demand, the decline in smelting processing fees has slowed down but remains at an absolute low. Exchange inventories have rebounded for several days, the support from the consumption peak season has faded, and demand expectations are cautious. Overall, due to the many uncertainties in the macro - environment, the weak US dollar index, and cautious demand expectations, copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Yesterday, alumina oscillated in the morning, dropped rapidly after the night - session opening, and then recovered part of the losses. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and remained strong. In the macro - environment, the drag of tariffs is gradually weakening, and the market's expectation of the global economy has improved marginally, but uncertainties remain as the US is still in negotiations with most countries. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling below 100. Domestic economic data is mixed, and the LPR was lowered by 10BP as expected. In terms of alumina, the Guinean government's ore policy remains uncertain, and there is no further progress for now. However, the ore production expansion in the first quarter was good, and China's bauxite imports from January to April maintained high growth. Attention should be paid to the duration of production stoppages. Domestically, there are still concerns about production cuts, but the medium - term oversupply expectation remains unchanged. Shanghai aluminum has limited directional drivers, and exchange inventories continue to decline. Overall, there is a divergence between the short - term supply shortage and medium - term oversupply of alumina, and the price game intensifies. Shanghai aluminum has rigid supply constraints, and attention should be paid to demand expectations, with the price continuing to oscillate strongly [4]. Nickel - In terms of supply, the increase in ore production is slow, and prices are still supported. Under high costs and weak demand, the price of ferronickel is stagnant, and the conversion to high - grade nickel matte may increase. In April, the imports and exports of refined nickel increased simultaneously, the supply did not tighten, and inventories oscillated at a high level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumption of stainless steel has entered the off - season, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Due to the continuous decline in the market share of ternary materials, the incremental demand for nickel from the new - energy sector is limited. Overall, as demand enters the off - season, the fundamentals are weak, but there are frequent disturbances in the resource end, and the ore price still supports the nickel industry chain. With the interweaving of long and short factors, there is no clear directional driver, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of nickel ore production expansion in Indonesia and the implementation of the Philippine export ban. For new orders, waiting for the opportunity to sell call options at the high end of the price range is recommended [4]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - In terms of supply, there are rumors that large northwest factories plan to restart previously shut - down production capacities, and as the wet season approaches, southwest production capacities may resume supply, increasing market concerns about supply surpluses. In terms of demand, the latest production plan for polysilicon is about 94,000 tons, providing relatively limited support for the demand for upstream industrial silicon. Although the terminal demand for organic silicon has recovered, the incremental demand from monomer plants at this stage is insufficient. Overall, under the background of the intensified expectation of supply - demand imbalance and the weakening cost support, industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a weak trend and remain in a short - position configuration [6]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced as the Iran - US nuclear agreement negotiation has encountered setbacks, and Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, bringing uncertainties to the market. In terms of supply, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it can tolerate low oil prices for a long time, and the consecutive two - month increase in production indicates a possible strategic shift towards increasing production and expanding market share. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production policy for July at the June meeting. Overall, short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil prices to rebound, but short - selling on rallies is recommended under the overall supply - surplus background [8]. Polyester - In terms of PTA supply, the 1.2 - million - ton - per - year plant of Xinjiang Zhongtai restarted over the weekend and will officially produce products tomorrow. The plant was shut down for maintenance on March 31. The restart and maintenance of plants coexist, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 77.80% compared with the previous working day. In terms of ethylene glycol supply, the overall operating rate is 56.43% (an increase of 0.49%). As of May 19, the total inventory of MEG at major ports in East China was 63.73 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared with last Thursday. In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate remains high, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future. The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of polyester sample enterprises is 36.63%, and end - users have mostly replenished their inventories previously, so the inquiry willingness is weak in the short term. Overall, due to the poor cash flow of the polyester industry, there is an expectation of production cuts in the demand side, which has a negative impact on the market. The market may adjust in the short term, but it has strong support at the lower level [8][10]. Methanol - This week, the signing volume of northwest sample production enterprises is 4.29 million tons (a decrease of 0.96 million tons), which is at a relatively low level. Jiangsu Sierbang plans to restart soon, and the 600,000 - ton - per - year acetic acid plant of Hubei Qianxin has been successfully put into operation, which will improve the methanol demand in the surrounding areas. Affected by the shutdown of some coal mines and the concentrated procurement of coastal power plants, coal prices stopped falling this week, but the current social inventory is extremely high, and coal prices are still more likely to fall than rise. The arrival volume will increase significantly this week, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation speed. Overall, although there are positive factors in demand, due to negative cost and supply factors, methanol prices are expected to continue to decline [10]. Polyolefin - Israel's preparation to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has led to a slight increase in international oil prices. Currently, the results of the Iran - US negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation are uncertain, and crude oil lacks a unilateral driver. The demand for rush - to - export is short - lived, and this week, the demand for polyolefins has returned to a low level, with the spot trading volume significantly slowing down, and factories generally lowering their quotes. The number of maintenance plants has increased, the operating rate of PE production enterprises has decreased by 2% compared with last week, and that of PP has decreased by 1%. The reduction in supply provides some support for prices. In the off - season, demand is difficult to improve, and even if crude oil prices rise or supply decreases, the rebound height of polyolefins is limited [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - In May, the implementation of plant maintenance continued. Yesterday, Kunlun started maintenance, and the maintenance of Fatou was postponed. It is expected that the daily production of soda ash will drop to around 93,000 tons. However, last week, the new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Industry was put into operation, and the output will gradually be released. The expansion cycle of soda ash production capacity has not ended, and the supply elasticity is high. Moreover, the raw material price has been continuously decreasing, and the theoretical profits of the three major production processes in the soda ash industry are positive. The sustainability of the concentrated large - scale maintenance of soda ash plants remains to be observed. According to the announced maintenance plan, the inventory digestion of soda ash is still limited, and the high inventory of upstream enterprises may continue to suppress prices. Overall, there is no clear signal for soda ash prices to stop falling. The previously recommended short position in the soda ash 09 contract can be held patiently, the stop - loss line can be lowered to lock in some profits in advance, and for new orders, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. Float Glass - In recent days, the speculative demand has been fair. Yesterday, the average sales - to - production ratio of the four major production areas dropped to 105.5% (- 7%). After the spot price dropped to a low level, it stimulated the purchasing demand of traders. However, in April, all real - estate investment indicators weakened. Yesterday, the central bank slightly lowered the LPR by 10 basis points, showing restraint in policy. The downward trend of the real - estate completion cycle has not ended, and seasonal effects will also appear. Without a significant reduction in supply, glass factories may continue to accumulate inventory passively during the off - season. Only when glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs can the pressure of supply - demand imbalance during the off - season be changed. Attention should be paid to the speed of cost reduction and its impact on the maintenance willingness of glass factories. Overall, before glass factories start a new round of cold - repairs, glass prices do not have the conditions to bottom out. It is recommended to hold the previously established short position in the FG509 contract and set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - In terms of weather, there is precipitation in some areas of northern and southern Xinjiang, and the wind is relatively strong in some places. In terms of supply, as the temperature in Xinjiang continues to rise, most cotton fields have emerged and are generally in the true - leaf stage, with good overall growth. In terms of demand, the Sino - US tariff policy has eased, some previously suspended production and shipping orders have restarted, and the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products has been relieved. In addition, there has been continuous rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas recently, and the drought ratio has decreased significantly. Overall, the unexpected reduction in Sino - US tariffs is expected to increase export orders. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas and macro - economic changes [10]. Natural Rubber - The automobile consumption stimulus policy has promoted the growth of terminal demand, but tire enterprises are restricted by the backlog of finished - product inventories, so the enthusiasm for starting production lines is difficult to significantly increase, and the willingness to stock up on rubber has also weakened. The port inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, while the upstream rubber - tapping has entered the seasonal production - increasing period. The phenological conditions in domestic producing areas are better than in previous years, and the production in southern Thailand will also gradually increase. The fundamentals of natural rubber maintain a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The strategy of selling call options should be continued to be held. Recently, attention should be paid to the recovery degree of export - driven demand under the background of the phased easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations [10]. Steel and Minerals Rebar - Yesterday, the spot price of rebar continued to be weak. The prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou remained stable, while that in Guangzhou dropped by 20. The spot trading volume was generally weak. In April, all real - estate investment data weakened. Yesterday, the central bank announced a 10 - basis - point reduction in the LPR, with the reduction being smaller than that of the deposit rate the previous day, showing restraint in interest - rate cuts to reserve room for future cuts. Steel still shows a pattern of relatively strong reality but weak expectation. As the temperature rises and rainfall in the south gradually increases, the impact of seasonal factors on the demand for construction steel will gradually appear in June. Domestic long - process rebar mills maintain a profit margin of about 100. Without strict production - restriction policies, the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the demand off - season. It is maintained that rebar prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range is [3000, 3150]. It is recommended to continue holding the position of selling out - of - the - money call options, RB2510C3250 [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weakly stable. The prices in Shanghai and Lecong remained stable, and the spot trading volume was average. Steel still shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The direct export of steel is strong, and steel mills have little pressure in recent order - taking. In terms of indirect export, home - appliance orders have improved. However, the comprehensive tariff rate imposed by the US on China is high, the external demand pressure in the second quarter has only been alleviated but not eliminated, and the suspension period is only 90 days, so there is still high uncertainty in long - term orders. Domestic long - process steel mills have good profits, and the supply pressure may gradually accumulate in the traditional demand off - season. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will be weak in the second quarter, and the short - term price range

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兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.29 品种基本面分析及行情研判： 商品期货方面：黄金延续多头思路，焦煤、多晶硅价格承压。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 1.二季度美国滞胀风险上升，沪金 AU2506 前多持有； | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 节前资金表现谨慎 | | 投资咨询部 张舒绮 从业资格： | 联系人：房紫薇 021-80220135 | | | 周一 A 股小幅调整，银行股走势偏强，沪深两市成交额下降至 | | | | | | 1.08（前值为 1.14）万亿元。从行业来看，银行、钢铁、家电行业 | | | | | | 小幅收涨，房地产、综合板块跌幅居前。 | | | | | | 期货市场随现货指数偏弱运行，IH 小幅收涨 0.06%，IF、IC 和 | | | | | | IM 分别收跌-0.19%、-0.52%和-0.97%。基差走势分化，IC、IM | | | | | 股指 | 基差小幅修复，IF、IH 基差偏弱运行。 | 震荡偏强 | F3037345 | 从业 ...