智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，昆仑能源(00135)上半年净利润同比下跌4%至31.61亿元人民 币，较该行预测低7%，主要由于自天然气销售业务零售销量、单位毛利及其他收益均低于预期。由于 下半年通常有较高销售及行政开支入帐，中银国际预期昆仑能源下半年盈利较上半年再下跌17%，另将 2025至2027年每立方米单位毛利预测下调0.03元人民币，相应将2025至2027年盈利预测下调9%至13%， 并将目标价从10.08港元下调至9.6港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

报告中称，昆仑能源上半年盈利同比跌4.4%至31.6亿元人民币，仅达到该行原预期今年全年的45%，相 信期内燃气销售业务的税前盈利降10.6%是业绩低于预期的主因。不过，公司中期息同比增1.2%，派息 比率45.46%，则略高于全年派息指引。 该行表示，虽然昆仑能源的零售气量增长偏低，但上半年已新增5个城燃项目，预计下半年仍有另外5个 新收购项目，新项目年气量贡献将会提升，加上预期今年暖冬情况不会出现，管理层预计下半年零售气 量同比增速将较上半年高。该行预计，今年公司零售气销量将同比增加4.5%，对比公司指引则为增长 5%;预期售气毛差维持在上半年水平的每方0.44元人民币。另外，预期LNG加工量同比增1.6%，今年分 部税前利润增2倍至2.6亿元人民币，LNG分部税前利润同比增8.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，下调昆仑能源(00135)今明两年的盈利预测8%和10%，以反 映对零售气销售增长预测下降。另预期今年核心盈利将大致持平约64亿元人民币，而2026及27年则分别 同比升5.5%和6.3%。该行将公司目标价由9.02港元下调至8.85港元，但认为股息率水平仍然吸引，续 予"买入"评级 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Kunlun Energy's after-tax net profit for the first half of the year decreased by 4% year-on-year to 3.2 billion, which is largely in line with expectations but may disappoint some investors who anticipated flat year-on-year results [1] Financial Performance - The interim dividend increased by 1% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45%, meeting expectations [1] - The pre-tax profits from natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales fell by 10% and 3% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to a decline in unit gross margins and weak retail gas volume growth [1] Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its retail gas volume growth forecast for the year from 8% to 5% and has lowered its natural gas profit forecasts for the period [1] - The after-tax profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 6% to 7% [1] - The target price has been adjusted down from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.3, maintaining a "neutral" rating due to limited growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised down its net profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy for the years 2025 to 2027 by 6.2%, 7.3%, and 9% respectively, due to slowing retail natural gas sales growth and a slowdown in LNG processing, which cannot be fully offset by the increase in LPG sales [1] Summary by Category Company Analysis - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been reduced from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The negative impact on Kunlun Energy's performance is attributed to the slowdown in retail natural gas sales and LNG processing [1] Industry Insights - Citigroup's preferred choice in the industry is New Hope Energy, highlighting the potential upside from its privatization [1]

港股石油股普遍上涨，其中，上海石油化工涨3.6%，中海油田服务、中国石油化工涨超2%，中国石油 股份、中国海洋石油涨近1%。 消息上，彭博引述知情人士称，中国政府据报计划对石油化工行业进行全面调整，淘汰小规模设施，对 老旧设施进行升级改造，投资转向新特材料领域。遏制行业内低附加值领域的长期产能过剩的措施可能 在下个月内出台。具体方案正在等待工信部的最终批覆。据知情人士称，根据拟议的措施，超过20年的 石化设施将需要进行改造以提高产量，这部分约占全国总量的40%。 最新数据显示，美国原油库存近期出现了超预期下降9，同时汽油等成品油需求也较为旺盛，这在短期 内为油价提供了支撑。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.440 | 3.60% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 7.330 | 2.37% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 4.500 | 2.04% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.420 | 1.09% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 7.520 | 0. ...

中金发布研报称，由于昆仑能源(00135)分销与贸易板块盈利存不确定性，下调2025/2026净利润 9.9%/10.1%至60.19亿元/62.05亿元。当前股价对应2025/2026年10.1x/9.6x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，综合 考虑盈利预测调整及公司中长期派息潜力，该行下调目标价5.9%至8.00港元，对应2025/202610.5x/10.1x P/E，较当前股价有4.6%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩低于该行预期 公司公布1H25业绩：收入975.4亿元，YoY+5%;归母净利润31.6亿元，YoY-4%，低于该行预期，主因部 分老旧管网改造已于2024年结束，应确认补贴减少导致1H25其他收益净额同比减少49%至3.8亿元。 1H25公司天然气销售量同比+10%至291亿方，其中分销与贸易气量同比+22.6%至124亿方，零售天然气 量同比+2.2%至167亿方(工业气量+8.0%YoY)，零售气价差0.44元/方，YoY-0.01元/方，新增用户39.9万 户，YoY-11.2%，接收站平均负荷率86.8%，YoY+1.4ppt;LNG工厂平均负荷率57.1%，YoY-1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，由于昆仑能源(00135)分销与贸易板块盈利存不确定性，下调 2025/2026净利润9.9%/10.1%至60.19亿元/62.05亿元。当前股价对应2025/2026年10.1x/9.6x P/E。维持跑 赢行业评级，综合考虑盈利预测调整及公司中长期派息潜力，该行下调目标价5.9%至8.00港元，对应 2025/2026 10.5x/10.1x P/E，较当前股价有4.6%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩低于该行预期 公司公布1H25业绩：收入975.4亿元，YoY+5%;归母净利润31.6亿元，YoY-4%，低于该行预期，主因部 分老旧管网改造已于2024年结束，应确认补贴减少导致1H25其他收益净额同比减少49%至3.8亿元。 1H25公司天然气销售量同比+10%至291亿方，其中分销与贸易气量同比+22.6%至124亿方，零售天然气 量同比+2.2%至167亿方(工业气量+8.0% YoY)，零售气价差0.44元/方，YoY-0.01元/方，新增用户39.9万 户，YoY-11.2%，接收站平均负荷率86.8%，YoY+1.4ppt; LNG工厂平均 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Chinese government plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, eliminating small-scale facilities and upgrading old ones, while shifting investments towards new materials [1] - Proposed measures may be introduced next month to curb long-term overcapacity in low value-added sectors, with specific plans awaiting final approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - Over 40% of petrochemical facilities in China, which are over 20 years old, will need to be upgraded to enhance production capacity [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong oil stocks generally rose, with Shanghai Petrochemical up 3.6%, CNOOC Services and Sinopec up over 2%, and PetroChina and CNOOC up nearly 1% [2] - Recent data shows a surprising decline of 9 in U.S. crude oil inventories, alongside strong demand for gasoline and other refined products, providing short-term support for oil prices [1]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market has shown a "N" shaped trend this year, with a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds re-emerging as market dynamics shift [1][25] - The bond market's main narrative has changed, indicating that current market behavior is driven more by risk appetite and asset reallocation rather than fundamental or liquidity factors [25][26] - The "look at stocks, act on bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize in the range of 1.75%-1.80% [1][28] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks reported a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, but with signs of marginal improvement compared to the first quarter [3] - City commercial banks showed the most significant performance improvement, with a total profit of 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10% but a notable increase in growth rate [3] - The outlook for the banking sector suggests that net interest margins may stabilize in the short term due to regulatory controls on deposit renewals and interbank rates [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Baiyunshan (600332) achieved a revenue of 41.835 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with a net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 1.31% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its health product segment and enhancing its international market presence, with significant growth in overseas revenue [6][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased competition and insufficient demand, lowering expected revenues to 78.013 billion yuan and 81.185 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - Kunlun Energy (00135) reported a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a total gas sales volume growth of 10.05% [42][43] - The company's LNG processing and transportation segment performed well, achieving record profitability despite a slight decrease in revenue [43][44] - The outlook for the energy sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in gas sales and operational efficiency improvements [43][44] Group 5: Retail and Consumer Goods - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) reported a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, with a net profit growth of 16.78% [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its trade services and has successfully completed trials for various consumer goods, indicating strong potential for future growth [10] - The outlook for the retail sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by new market openings and the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy [2][7][17] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 97.543 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.36% to 3.161 billion RMB, slightly below expectations [7] - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10.05% to 29.095 billion m³, driven by a significant rise in industrial gas consumption [7] - The average load rate of LNG receiving stations improved to 86.8%, with a substantial increase in LNG loading volume by 75.5% [7] - The company plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% for 2025, with a current dividend yield of approximately 4.4% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 177.354 billion RMB (2023), 187.046 billion RMB (2024), 193.901 billion RMB (2025E), 204.563 billion RMB (2026E), and 213.881 billion RMB (2027E) [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.682 billion RMB (2023), 5.960 billion RMB (2024), 5.980 billion RMB (2025E), 6.254 billion RMB (2026E), and 6.573 billion RMB (2027E) [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.66 RMB (2023), 0.69 RMB (2024), 0.69 RMB (2025E), 0.72 RMB (2026E), and 0.76 RMB (2027E) [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025-2027 is estimated at 10.2, 9.8, and 9.3 respectively [7]