昆仑能源 20251106 摘要 昆仑能源前三季度工业端天然气需求保持较高单位数增长，商业和居民 端基本持平。全年新增用户目标接近完成，LNG 接收站负荷率预计在 85%-90%，LP 销售实现中高单位数增长，原油权益销售符合年初指引。 上半年每方气价差为 4.4 元，前三季度毛差水平保持稳定。合同期量价 格政策调整，如挂钩比例从 100%降至 90%，以及 CLD 挂钩指数调整 3%-7%，预计四季度东北亚 JKM 现货价格下降将优化成本，从而支撑 毛差改善。 冷冬可能显著带动销量增加，但合同挂钩比例下降预计对价差改善有一 定支撑作用。公司通过优化成本和管理措施，力争维持合理稳定的价差 水平，并有所改善。 2025 年上半年人工成本已充分计提，下半年集中结算项目费用，销管 费用通常较高。2024 年安全治理费用约为 6 亿元，今年预计基本持平。 昆仑能源正在实施 2023-2025 年度派息计划，中期派息比例为 45.46%。公司重视投资者回报，并计划在明年一季度推出新的分红政 策指引，覆盖 2026-2028 年度。 Q&A 昆仑能源在 2025 年前三季度的运营表现如何？各业务板块的具体情况怎样？ 20 ...

Core Points - Kunlun Energy Hubei Huanggang LNG Company expressed gratitude to Hubei Special Inspection Institute Huanggang Branch for their efficient and professional technical support during a critical maintenance period [1][3] - The company undertook a planned full plant shutdown for maintenance in August, with the inspection of 152 pressure vessels being a key aspect for ensuring safe production and timely resumption [3] - The inspection team from Hubei Special Inspection Institute worked diligently to complete the inspection tasks on time, ensuring a safe and timely restart of production for Kunlun Energy Huanggang Company [3] - To enhance safety management and risk prevention, the institute provided tailored training courses and technical guidance to address specific needs in special equipment management [3] Group 1 - Kunlun Energy Huanggang Company presented a banner to express appreciation for the support received during maintenance [1] - The maintenance involved a significant inspection of 152 pressure vessels, crucial for safe operations [3] - The inspection team managed to complete their tasks under tight deadlines and challenging conditions [3] Group 2 - The Hubei Special Inspection Institute organized specialized training to improve safety management and emergency response capabilities for Kunlun Energy Huanggang Company [3] - The training included topics such as safety regulations, management norms, and risk identification [3] - This initiative aimed to enhance the company's internal safety management and operational efficiency [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong oil stocks continued to rise, with an increase of 2.9% for China Petroleum and 1% for China Petroleum Chemical [1] - OPEC+ announced plans to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, marking the first halt since resuming supply cuts in April [1] - Morgan Stanley raised its short-term forecast for oil prices, increasing the Brent crude oil futures price expectation for the first half of 2026 from $57.50 to $60 per barrel [1] Group 2 - CNOOC's third-quarter performance indicates the company's ability to deliver stable and resilient earnings amid oil market fluctuations [2] - The dividend outlook and stability for CNOOC are considered the best among its peers [2] - The target price for CNOOC's H-shares was raised from HKD 8.6 to HKD 8.8, and the A-shares target price was increased from CNY 11.9 to CNY 12, maintaining an "outperform" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in renewable energy and natural gas consumption [4][8]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading prices in Q3 compared to Q1. The total issuance of green power certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable [7][8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price reaching a six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [9][11]. - The report anticipates an increase in natural gas consumption in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and expected higher heating demand from a potential La Niña phenomenon [30][31]. Summary by Sections Electricity - The average trading price of green certificates increased by 210% in Q3 compared to Q1. The issuance of green certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable, indicating a robust market growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for further development of the green certificate market and the introduction of regulations to enhance renewable energy consumption [4][7]. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price was $3.57/mmBtu, marking an 11.16% increase week-on-week. In contrast, European gas prices showed a decline, with the TTF spot price at €30.35/MWh, down 5.42% [9][10]. - The report notes a decrease in China's apparent natural gas consumption in September 2025, but anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and increased heating demand [30][31]. - The LNG national ex-factory price in China rose to 4407 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.11% increase week-on-week, driven by rising demand ahead of the heating season [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market conditions: - Hydropower: Focus on Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to favorable hydrological conditions [8]. - Green Power: Attention to New Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power for their stable returns [8]. - Nuclear Power: Recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power due to ongoing approvals for new units [8]. - Thermal Power: Companies like Guodian Power and Huadian International are highlighted for improved profitability due to falling coal prices [8]. - Gas Power: Recommendations for Guangzhou Development and Shenzhen Energy based on expected stability in profitability [8].

| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00135 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 16,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 160,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 16,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 160,000,000 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 昆侖能源有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 FF301 III.已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動詳情 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various sectors including hydropower, green electricity, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas power [4][9][44]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading price in Q3 compared to Q1 [8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the US Henry Hub spot price reaching a near six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [11][12]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in gas consumption growth in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and high demand expectations, despite a 1.6% year-on-year decline in September gas consumption [32][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - In September 2025, 229 million green electricity certificates were issued, with 68.86% being tradable [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in market mechanisms and the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [8]. 2. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the US Henry Hub spot price increased by 11.16% week-on-week, while European prices showed a decline [11][12]. - The report notes a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in national gas consumption in September, with expectations for growth in Q4 2025 due to favorable weather conditions [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include hydropower companies such as Guotou Power and Chuanwei Energy, green electricity firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, and gas companies including Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the gas sector due to declining costs and rising demand [33][44].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is entering a downward cycle due to high costs and weak supply-demand dynamics, despite maintaining high capital expenditure and supply growth since the peak in 2021. However, there are "long-termist" companies capable of navigating through the cycle, providing substantial returns to investors through growth and dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced high capital expenditure and significant supply growth since the peak in 2021, but demand recovery remains relatively weak, leading to a high-cost and weak supply-demand environment [1]. - Long-termist companies in the chemical sector are characterized by strong shareholder backgrounds, excellent management capabilities, reasonable industry chain layouts, continuous R&D investment, and a strong sense of social responsibility, enabling them to achieve stable growth and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Sector - The "three major oil companies" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to maintain high capital expenditure and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [3]. - The domestic oil service companies are benefiting from high upstream capital expenditure, with improved operational quality and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]. Group 3: Refining and Chemical Fiber Industry - The refining and chemical fiber industry is anticipated to recover, with the refining expansion nearing completion and supply-demand dynamics expected to improve, leading to high-quality development in the sector [4]. - The polyester sector is seeing limited new capacity, with structural optimization accelerating, which is expected to enhance the market share and competitiveness of leading companies [4]. Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical industry is projected to improve profitability due to a gradual easing of coal supply and demand, alongside a decline in coal prices. The transition towards modern coal chemical processes is seen as essential for traditional coal enterprises [5]. - The average prices for various coal types have decreased, with main coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite prices showing declines of -10.5%, -2.0%, and -16.0% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the upstream oil and gas sector and oil service companies, including China National Petroleum (601857.SH), Sinopec (600028.SH), CNOOC (600938.SH), and others [6]. - For the refining and chemical fiber sector, companies like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) are recommended due to their potential benefits from industry optimization and upgrades [7]. - In the coal chemical sector, companies such as Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) are highlighted for their expected improvement in profitability [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring cyclical leading companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) and Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) as demand recovers and supply-demand dynamics improve [7].

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy (00135) announced that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Shandong Shengli Oil & Gas Co., Ltd. have signed a letter of intent for a potential transaction involving the sale of stakes in Nantong CNPC and Ganhe CNPC [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - CNPC intends to sell a 51% stake in Nantong CNPC and a 40% stake in Ganhe CNPC to Shengli Oil & Gas [1] - The payment for the stakes may be made through a combination of share issuance and cash [1] - Negotiations are still ongoing, and no legally binding agreement has been established yet, indicating that the transaction may not be finalized [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Nantong CNPC primarily engages in natural gas sales and gas pipeline construction [1] - Ganhe CNPC also focuses on natural gas sales and gas pipeline construction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Kunlun Energy (00135) announced that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Shandong Shengli Oilfield Company have signed a letter of intent for the sale of stakes in Nantong CNPC and Ganhe CNPC, indicating potential strategic shifts in the natural gas sector [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - CNPC intends to sell a 51% stake in Nantong CNPC and a 40% stake in Ganhe CNPC to Shengli Oilfield [1] - The payment for the stakes can be made through a combination of share issuance and cash [1] - The negotiations are ongoing, and no legally binding agreement has been established yet, meaning the transaction may not be finalized [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Nantong CNPC primarily engages in natural gas sales and gas pipeline construction [1] - Ganhe CNPC also focuses on natural gas sales and gas pipeline construction [1]

香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 告 之 內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示 概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 份 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 昆 侖 能 源 有 限 公 司 KUNLUN ENERGY COMPANY LIMITED (incorporated in Bermuda with limited liability) （股份代號：00135.HK） 自願公告 香 港，2025年10月30日 於 本 公 告 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 劉 國 海 先 生 為 主 席 兼 執 行 董 事、錢 治 家 先 生 為 行 政 總 裁 兼 執 行 董 事、呂 菁 女 士 及 戚 振 忠 先 生 為 非 執 行 董 事，及 辛 定 華 先 生、曾 鈺 成 先 生 及 郭 志 成 先 生 為 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事。 本 公 告 乃 由 昆 侖 能 源 ...