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昆仑能源:年报点评:业绩稳健增长,毛差环比H1修复-20250326
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-03-26 05:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 187.046 billion, an increase of RMB 9.692 billion or 5.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.960 billion, up RMB 0.278 billion or 4.9% year-on-year. The core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.359 billion, an increase of RMB 0.215 billion or 3.5% year-on-year. The annual dividend was RMB 0.3158 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1]. - The company's gas sales volume outperformed the industry, with a slight increase in gross margin compared to the first half of the year. The total natural gas sales volume reached 54.170 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Retail gas volume was 32.757 billion cubic meters, up 8.1% year-on-year, while distribution and trading accounted for approximately 21.4 billion cubic meters, a rise of 12.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expanding its business layout into the central and western provinces, which have high growth potential and significant profit contributions. Retail gas volumes in the northwest and southwest regions grew by 12% and 19.2%, respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 187.046 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.960 billion and a core profit of RMB 6.359 billion for the year [1]. - The average procurement price for gas was RMB 2.37 per cubic meter, while the sales price was RMB 2.84 per cubic meter, resulting in a weighted average price difference of RMB 0.47 per cubic meter [2]. LNG Operations - The LNG receiving stations in Tangshan and Jiangsu had a gasification loading volume of 15.940 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year. The average load factor for the two stations was 87.6%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year. The operational efficiency of LNG plants improved, with 13 plants achieving profitability [2]. Exploration and Production - The exploration and production business faced significant impacts due to the expiration of oil field contracts. The company achieved an oil sales volume of 8.29 million barrels, a decrease of 0.92 million barrels or 10% year-on-year, with an average realized price of USD 66.7 per barrel [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to RMB 6.414 billion and RMB 7.011 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 7.656 billion. The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be RMB 0.74, RMB 0.81, and RMB 0.88, respectively [4].
昆仑能源(00135):年报点评:业绩稳健增长,毛差环比H1修复
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-03-26 05:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 187.046 billion for 2024, an increase of RMB 9.692 billion or 5.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.960 billion, up RMB 0.278 billion or 4.9% year-on-year, while the core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.359 billion, an increase of RMB 0.215 billion or 3.5% year-on-year. The annual dividend was set at RMB 0.3158 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1]. - The company's gas sales volume outperformed the industry, with a total of 54.170 billion cubic meters sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Retail gas sales accounted for 32.757 billion cubic meters, up 8.1% year-on-year, while distribution and trading reached approximately 21.4 billion cubic meters, a 12.9% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expanding its business into high-growth and high-profit regions in the central and western provinces, with retail gas sales in the northwest and southwest growing by 12% and 19.2% respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 1870.46 billion, with a net profit of RMB 59.60 billion and a core profit of RMB 63.59 billion for the year [1]. - The average procurement price for gas was RMB 2.37 per cubic meter, while the selling price was RMB 2.84 per cubic meter, resulting in a weighted average price difference of RMB 0.47 per cubic meter [2]. LNG Operations - The LNG receiving stations in Tangshan and Jiangsu had a gasification loading volume of 15.940 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with an average load factor of 87.6%, down 3 percentage points [2]. - The operational efficiency of LNG plants improved, with 13 plants achieving profitability and one plant reducing losses. The processing volume increased to 3.55 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [2]. Exploration and Production - The exploration and production segment faced significant impacts due to the expiration of contracts for the Liaohe and Peru oil fields. The company reported a crude oil sales volume of 8.29 million barrels, a decrease of 0.92 million barrels or 10% year-on-year, with an average realized price of USD 66.7 per barrel [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to RMB 6.414 billion and RMB 7.011 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 7.656 billion. The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be RMB 0.74, RMB 0.81, and RMB 0.88 respectively [4].
昆仑能源(00135) - 2024 - 年度业绩
2025-03-25 11:54
Financial Performance - Total natural gas sales volume increased by 9.91% to 54,170 million cubic meters in 2024 from 49,285 million cubic meters in 2023[4] - Revenue rose by 5.46% to RMB 187,046 million in 2024 compared to RMB 177,354 million in 2023[4] - Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.89% to RMB 5,960 million in 2024 from RMB 5,682 million in 2023[7] - Basic earnings per share grew by 4.89% to RMB 68.83 in 2024, up from RMB 65.62 in 2023[7] - Core profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.50% to RMB 6,359 million in 2024 from RMB 6,144 million in 2023[4] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 191,404 million, an increase from RMB 182,861 million in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 4.3%[17] - Revenue from external customers for 2024 was RMB 187,046 million, compared to RMB 177,354 million in 2023, indicating an increase of about 5.5%[17] - The profit before tax for 2024 was RMB 12,635 million, slightly up from RMB 12,593 million in 2023, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.3%[19] - Total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 187,046 million, an increase of 5.5% from RMB 177,354 million in 2023[21] - Natural gas sales contributed RMB 152,090 million, up from RMB 140,600 million, reflecting a growth of 8.6%[21] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 31.58 per share, an increase of 11.28% from RMB 28.38 per share in 2023[4] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 1,314 million for 2024, compared to no dividend in 2023[28] - The proposed final dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.1517 per share, totaling approximately RMB 1,314 million, compared to RMB 2,457 million for the 2023 final dividend[79] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is approximately 43%, an increase from 40% in 2023[79] - The company has established a three-year dividend distribution plan aiming for a payout ratio of 45% by the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025[70] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased slightly to RMB 143,390 million in 2024 from RMB 143,519 million in 2023[9] - Total equity increased to RMB 88,835 million in 2024, up from RMB 85,783 million in 2023[9] - Current liabilities decreased to RMB 35,676 million in 2024 from RMB 34,583 million in 2023[9] - Long-term borrowings decreased significantly to RMB 14,329 million in 2024 from RMB 19,027 million in 2023[9] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 25,224 million in 2024 from RMB 27,800 million in 2023, a decline of 9.3%[32] - The company reported an increase in investments in associates to RMB 8,567 million in 2024 from RMB 7,980 million in 2023[19] - The company’s segment assets for 2024 were RMB 127,236 million, down from RMB 128,001 million in 2023[19] Operational Efficiency - The company’s operating cash flow was robust at RMB 12.585 billion, indicating strong financial health and operational efficiency[40] - The company’s depreciation, amortization, and impairment expenses totaled RMB 5,160 million for 2024, compared to RMB 4,992 million in 2023, indicating an increase of about 3.4%[17] - The average annual interest rate for capitalized borrowing costs was 3.41% in 2024, down from 3.94% in 2023[23] - Interest expenses decreased to RMB 803 million in 2024 from RMB 960 million in 2023, a reduction of 16.4%[23] - Employee compensation costs were approximately RMB 5.83 billion, a decrease of 2.4% from RMB 5.97 billion last year, with employee compensation accounting for 3.12% of operating revenue[53] Customer and Market Growth - The total number of urban gas users surpassed 16.454 million, reflecting the company's expanding customer base[37] - The company reported a natural gas sales volume of 54.170 billion cubic meters, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, with retail gas volume increasing by 8.1% to 32.757 billion cubic meters[40] - The LPG sales volume was 5.7838 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while revenue from LPG sales decreased by 4.5% to RMB 25.601 billion[42] - The company’s LNG processing and storage operations demonstrated improved efficiency, with 14 LNG plants achieving a processing volume of 3.550 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%[43] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing joint ventures in the gas industry, with eight quality urban gas projects underway to enhance long-term growth prospects[40] - The company aims to enhance its marketing strategy and focus on green, safe, and efficient development while optimizing its service ecosystem[45] Miscellaneous - The company has no significant acquisitions or disposals during the year[63] - The company faces foreign exchange risks due to borrowings denominated in currencies other than RMB[61] - The company has no significant contingent liabilities that would adversely affect its financial position[67] - The company employed 24,809 employees globally as of December 31, 2024, a decrease from 27,138 employees in 2023[66] - The company pledged RMB 1,878 million in borrowings against natural gas receivables, up from RMB 94 million in 2023[62]
昆仑能源:燃气红马,自在昆仑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-01-27 03:11
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy [10][106]. Core Views - In the current environment of declining interest rates and a focus on dividends due to national reforms, the decrease in oil and gas prices is expected to improve cost conditions, leading to a reevaluation and second pricing of Kunlun Energy as a dividend asset [4][10]. - Compared to its peers, Kunlun Energy has stable natural gas sales price differentials, a leading position in the central and western regions, the ability to accommodate the industrial transfer of high-energy-consuming enterprises, and a relatively strong capacity for dividend enhancement [4][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is one of the five major gas companies in China, with its market performance historically weaker than its peers due to significant impacts from oil price fluctuations [6][15]. - The company has shifted its focus from upstream exploration and production to downstream natural gas sales, reducing its cyclical attributes and enhancing its utility characteristics [6][15]. Strategic Positioning - The company has established a comprehensive natural gas industry chain, focusing on terminal natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG processing and storage, and exploration and production [7][28]. - Kunlun Energy has expanded its natural gas sales business, benefiting from internal synergies, with LNG receiving station load rates exceeding industry averages [7][32]. Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is improving, and the "dual carbon" strategy is driving domestic natural gas consumption growth [8][50]. - Kunlun Energy has a strong presence in the central and western natural gas markets, with significant sales regions including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Gansu, and Hubei, which will benefit from the industrial transfer of high-energy-consuming enterprises [8][52]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 59.47 billion, CNY 62.93 billion, and CNY 66.08 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.69, CNY 0.73, and CNY 0.76 [10][106]. - The report highlights that Kunlun Energy's dividend capacity is relatively strong compared to its peers, supported by a good asset structure and cash flow [9][90]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that Kunlun Energy's valuation may improve due to its stable natural gas sales price differentials and strong dividend potential, especially as the company focuses on enhancing shareholder returns [9][90]. - The anticipated capital expenditure reduction and improved asset structure further support the company's ability to increase dividends [9][90].
昆仑能源:暖冬轻微影响零售气销售,下调盈利预测
交银国际证券· 2025-01-10 01:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.08, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the warm winter has slightly impacted retail gas sales, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy. The core earnings for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [2][5]. - The company is expected to see a retail gas sales growth of 8.6% for the full year of 2024, despite a year-on-year decline in natural gas demand starting November 2024 [5]. - The LNG receiving station's utilization rate for 2024 has been adjusted down by 1 percentage point to 89% due to a projected 1% year-on-year decline in natural gas imports [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Kunlun Energy are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 188,386 million - 2025E: RMB 202,300 million - 2026E: RMB 215,037 million [4][14]. - Net profit estimates have been revised to: - 2024E: RMB 6,466 million - 2025E: RMB 7,216 million - 2026E: RMB 7,883 million, reflecting decreases of 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [4][14]. Operational Data - The forecasted gas sales volume is expected to grow as follows: - 2024E: 32.9 billion cubic meters - 2025E: 35.9 billion cubic meters - 2026E: 38.8 billion cubic meters, with growth rates of 8.6%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [6]. - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase to 3.27 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 52% [6]. Dividend Policy - The management has set a dividend payout target of 43% for 2024, increasing to 45% in 2025, with expected dividend yields of 4.4% and 5.1% respectively, which remains attractive [5].
昆仑能源:优质燃气分销商,业绩稳健
国证国际证券· 2025-01-02 02:05
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 9.61, compared to a current price of HKD 8.32 [3][28]. Core Insights - The company, Kunlun Energy, is the only platform enterprise in China engaged in natural gas terminal sales and comprehensive utilization, benefiting from the trend of industrial transfer to the central and western regions of China [4][27]. - The company has a strong financial position with low debt levels and sufficient cash on hand, and it has announced a three-year dividend plan with increasing payout ratios [26][28]. - The natural gas sales segment accounts for nearly 80% of total revenue, with a significant focus on industrial and commercial customers [27][22]. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy was established as a red-chip company under the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and has transitioned from oil and gas exploration to focus on natural gas terminal sales since 2008 [2][9]. - The company operates 284 urban gas projects across 30 provinces, with an annual natural gas sales volume of 50 billion cubic meters [4][27]. - The shareholder structure includes CNPC holding 56.05% and Sinopec holding 1.48% [3][11]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total market capitalization of HKD 72.04 billion and an average trading volume of HKD 111.92 million [3]. - Revenue from natural gas sales is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12% over three years, with the company actively expanding its customer base [22][27]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 6,060 million, RMB 6,484 million, and RMB 6,927 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.75, and 0.80 [28][31]. Business Segments - The company's revenue is divided into four main segments: natural gas sales (80%), LPG sales (15%), LNG processing and storage (5%), and exploration and production (1%) [27][41]. - The LNG processing and storage segment has the highest and most stable profit margins, while the natural gas sales segment shows consistent growth [20][27]. Market Position - Kunlun Energy is positioned as a leading natural gas distributor in China, with a significant market share in urban gas distribution [22][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for natural gas in China, projected to grow significantly in the coming years [76][79].
昆仑能源:盈利分红稳步提升,中长期投资价值显现
国元国际控股· 2024-12-27 03:15
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 10.6, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price [3][29]. Core Insights - The company's LNG processing and storage business has shown positive revenue growth, achieving RMB 5.662 billion in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.14%, with a pre-tax profit of RMB 1.648 billion, up 22.89% [2][27]. - The company has a three-year dividend distribution plan from 2023 to 2025, with the annual payout ratio expected to gradually increase to 45% [2][28]. - The company aims for an LNG receiving station load factor of 90% for the year, indicating a positive outlook for the LNG industry chain [2][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved natural gas sales of 26.438 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, with retail gas volume reaching 16.302 billion cubic meters, up 10.25% [6][17]. - The average production load factor for the company's 14 operational plants was 58.4%, an increase of 19.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][27]. Dividend Policy - The company declared an interim dividend of 16.41 cents in H1 2024, with a payout ratio of 43%, reflecting stable profit growth and significant potential for future dividend increases [2][28]. Market Position - The company operates in four main segments: natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG processing and storage, and exploration and production, with a user base exceeding 16 million across 31 provinces in China [6][17].
昆仑能源:天然气销售结构持续优化,派息比例有望进一步提升
海通国际· 2024-10-14 06:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price of 8.11 HKD/share [6][9] Core Views - Kunlun Energy achieved a comprehensive improvement in revenue and profit in H1 2024, driven by growth in natural gas sales volume and continuous optimization of sales structure [2][6] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial stability and growth prospects [2][6] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 reached 92.922 billion yuan, a 10.5% YoY increase, with pre-tax profit growing 6.74% YoY to 7.249 billion yuan [2][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 2.6% YoY to 3.305 billion yuan, and the company announced its first mid-term dividend of 16.41 yuan per share [2][6] Natural Gas Business - Natural gas sales volume in H1 2024 grew 10.6% YoY to 264.38 billion cubic meters, with retail gas volume increasing 10.3% YoY to 163.02 billion cubic meters [2][7] - Industrial and commercial gas sales accounted for a larger share of retail gas sales, increasing by 4.6 percentage points YoY, driven by growth in "three new" industrial users (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products) [2][7] - The company added 449,000 new users, bringing the total to 16.053 million, further solidifying its leading position in the terminal market [2][7] LPG and LNG Business - LPG business achieved a 32.6% YoY increase in pre-tax profit to 561 million yuan, despite a 0.4% YoY decline in sales volume, due to operational efficiency improvements [8] - LNG processing and storage business saw a 22.9% YoY increase in pre-tax profit to 1.648 billion yuan, with LNG gasification and loading volume growing 5.9% YoY to 77.70 billion cubic meters [8] - The average load rate of LNG plants increased by 19.5 percentage points YoY to 58.4%, with self-produced and sold volume growing 11.5% YoY [8] Exploration and Production Business - Exploration and production business faced pressure, with revenue declining 85.5% YoY to 88 million yuan due to the expiration of exploration contracts for Liaohe and Peru oilfields [8] - Crude oil sales decreased by 16.5% YoY to 4.04 million barrels, although the average crude oil price increased by 2.15 USD/barrel to 67.77 USD/barrel [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Kunlun Energy's main business revenue for FY24-26 at 189.98/202.59/215.16 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5.666/6.077/6.497 billion yuan [9] - The target price is set at 8.11 HKD/share, reflecting the company's stable operations and continuous optimization of its sales structure [9]
昆仑能源(00135) - 2024 - 中期财报
2024-09-20 08:32
Financial Performance - The revenue for the period was approximately RMB 92,922 million, representing an increase of 6.72% year-on-year[4] - Profit attributable to shareholders of the Company was RMB 3,305 million, representing an increase of 2.58% year-on-year[4] - The gross revenue increased by 6.7% year-on-year, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3,305 million, with strong operating cash flow of RMB 5,352 million[9] - Revenue from the natural gas sales business was RMB 76.66 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.74%, while profit before income tax was RMB 5.005 billion, up 2.41%[16] - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 92.922 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.305 billion, and strong operating cash flow of RMB 5.352 billion[1] - Profit before income tax expenses was approximately RMB 7,249 million, an increase of 6.74% from RMB 6,791 million for the same period last year[33] - Profit for the period was RMB 5,320 million, up from RMB 5,041 million in the previous year, reflecting a growth of 5.5%[70] - Basic and diluted earnings per share attributable to shareholders of the Company increased to 38.17 RMB cents from 37.21 RMB cents, representing a rise of 2.6%[72] Natural Gas and Energy Sales - The Group's natural gas retail sales volume was 16,302 million cubic metres, representing an increase of 10.25% year-on-year[4] - The total number of users exceeded 16 million, with natural gas sales volume reaching 26,438 million cubic metres, an increase of 10.55% year-on-year[6] - Natural gas sales volume reached 26.438 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, with retail gas sales volume at 16.302 billion cubic meters, up 10.25%[15] - The company’s LNG receiving station liquid loading volume increased by 53.52% year-on-year, contributing to a historic turnaround in profitability[1] - The LNG refueling-at-sea business developed rapidly, with refueling volume increased by 87% year-on-year[10] - The Natural Gas Sales segment generated revenue of RMB 75,506 million, while the LPG Sales segment contributed RMB 12,887 million[134] User Growth and Engagement - The total number of users surpassed 16.0527 million, with 448,700 new users added in the first half of the year, including 436,000 residential users[15] - The number of registered users on the "Kunlun Huixiang+" platform reached 600,000, with platform sales increasing by 50% year-on-year[10] - The company registered 600,000 users on the "Kunlun Huixiang+" platform, with platform sales increasing by 50% year-on-year[1] Operational Efficiency - The average production capacity of 14 processing plants under continuous operation was 58.4%, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%[21] - The company’s marketing quality improved, with industrial user sales increasing by 21.46% and the proportion of industrial and commercial gas sales in retail volume rising by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year[1] - The company aims to optimize the natural gas terminal sales structure to ensure a rise in both volume and efficiency, focusing on LNG heavy trucks and expanding LNG ship refueling-at-sea business[26] Financial Position and Assets - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were approximately RMB 142,327 million, a decrease of 0.83% from RMB 143,519 million as of December 31, 2023[43] - The Group's total equity, interest-bearing borrowings, and lease liabilities amounted to RMB 111,494 million as of June 30, 2024[49] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 55,630 million as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 57,736 million, representing a decline of 3.64%[76] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 29,422 million, up from RMB 27,353 million, indicating a growth of 7.57%[76] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The Board declared an interim dividend of RMB 16.41 cents per share, totaling approximately RMB 1,421 million, to be paid on October 31, 2024[55] - The final dividend for 2023 was RMB 2,457 million, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders[80] - Shareholders can elect to receive the 2024 Interim Dividend in RMB, with the record date set for September 12, 2024[56] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The Company has complied with all provisions of the Corporate Governance Code, except for the absence of an independent non-executive director at the annual general meeting held on May 30, 2024[59] - The unaudited consolidated interim financial report for the period has been reviewed by the Audit Committee with no disagreements noted[59] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The Company is focused on building a digital and intelligent support system, with plans to fully launch the Kunlun ERP by May 2025[30] - The Company is committed to deepening carbon asset management research and exploring hydrogen blending technology in city gas pipelines[28] - The company is focusing on the development of new energy projects and enhancing carbon asset management to ensure high-quality and stable growth[31] - The Company plans to promote the rapid development of gas and electricity in new energy businesses and achieve substantial progress in the Chongqing Tongliang natural gas distributed project[28]
昆仑能源:2024年中报业绩点评:气量高增&结构调整真实价差有韧性,首次中期派息
Soochow Securities· 2024-08-29 12:14
Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 929.2 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.31 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year [1] - The company announced its first interim dividend of 16.41 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 43%, and plans to increase the dividend ratio to 45% in 2025 [1] - The company's natural gas sales business saw a 9.6% increase in revenue and a 2.4% increase in pre-tax profit, with retail gas volume growing by 10.3% year-on-year [1] - The LNG processing and storage business experienced an 18.0% increase in revenue and a 22.9% increase in pre-tax profit, with processing volume up 61.7% year-on-year [1] - The LPG sales business saw a 6.6% decrease in revenue but a 32.6% increase in pre-tax profit, with improved regional resource allocation and higher retail share [1] - The exploration and production business revenue and pre-tax profit declined by 85.5% and 39.8% respectively, due to the expiration of exploration contracts in Liaoning and Peru [1] Business Performance - The company's retail gas volume has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% from 2018 to 2023, significantly higher than the national average of 7.1% [1] - The company's industrial gas consumption has been driven by the national policy encouraging the transfer of manufacturing industries to the central and western regions and Northeast China [1] - The company benefits from the strong resource support of its parent company, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which holds a 57.58% stake in the company [1] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 177.726 billion yuan in 2023 to 210.679 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.47% [1][3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 5.682 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.060 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.63% [1][3] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from 0.66 yuan in 2023 to 0.82 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 10.80 to 8.69 over the same period [1][3] Valuation - The company's current P/E ratio is 10.80, with a P/B ratio of 0.72 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.98 [3] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 8.96% in 2023 to 9.50% in 2026, reflecting steady profitability [3]