连连数字 20250720 摘要 连连数字是国内领先的独立数字支付解决方案提供商，市场份额达 9.1%，主要业务包括全球支付（占比 60%）、国内支付（占比 25%） 和增值服务（占比 10%），全球支付是核心收入来源，近五年交易流水 复合增长率接近 30%。 公司全球支付业务主要服务跨境电商平台上的零售商户，2024 年全球 支付交易流水达 0.28 万亿元人民币，费率约为千分之三。国内支付业 务面向 B 端企业客户，2024 年交易流水达 3 万亿元，费率较低约为万 分之一。 连连数字积极布局稳定币在跨境支付领域的应用，受益于政策支持和自 身牌照资源优势，有望通过发币、生态合作等方式提高交易效率、降低 成本，并拓展虚拟资产交易等新兴业务。 公司拥有 65 张全球支付牌照，覆盖中国内地、中国香港、东南亚、美 国和欧盟等核心市场，增强了其全球业务能力。香港子公司 DFX 持有香 港 VATV 牌照，具备虚拟资产交易平台资质，具有稀缺性。 Q&A 连连数字在支付行业中的地位和业务布局是怎样的？ 连连数字是一家专注于跨境支付的领先公司，成立于 2009 年，是国内首批涉 足跨境电商支付的企业之一。2013 年，公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin concept has emerged as the largest and most sustained investment theme in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets since late May 2025, significantly driving up the stock prices of related companies [1][11]. Market Performance - In the A-share market, companies like Hengbao Co. (002104.SZ) and Sifang Jingchuang (300468.SZ) saw increases of over 220% and 180% respectively within 31 and 23 trading days [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, Lianlian Digital (02598) surged by 125% in three trading days, while Guotai Junan International (01788) experienced a nearly 200% increase in the same period [1]. - CIRCLE, listed in the US, achieved a maximum increase of 864.52% within 12 trading days [1]. Stablecoin Industry Chain - The stablecoin industry chain is divided into three main parts: upstream (issuers, reserve asset managers, blockchain infrastructure), midstream (exchanges, market makers), and downstream (applications like cross-border payments and RWA) [1][2]. - Among 18 companies in the Hong Kong market, 7 focus on application layers, primarily in cross-border payments and RWA [2]. Company Valuations - The market capitalization of companies involved in the stablecoin industry varies significantly, with notable players including: - Guotai Junan International: 604 billion - China Everbright Holdings: 134 billion - OSL Group: 113 billion [3]. - Companies like ZhongAn Online and OSL Group have achieved full-chain layouts, covering issuance, custody, circulation, and cross-border settlement [4][5]. Recent Stock Movements - The most significant stock price increases were observed in companies like Jinyong Investment and Guotai Junan International, with increases of 653.77% and 526.55% respectively [7][8]. - However, some companies with high stock price increases may be subject to speculation, as their business developments are still in the planning stages [9]. Regulatory Environment - The upcoming implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 is expected to influence the market dynamics, with a focus on the issuance of stablecoin licenses [11][12]. - Approximately 50 to 60 companies have expressed intentions to apply for licenses, with expectations that only 3-4 licenses will be granted initially [11]. Future Market Potential - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion as of July 2025, with projections suggesting it could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 35% [14]. - The RWA market, a key area for stablecoin applications, is projected to exceed $16 trillion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [14].

Core Viewpoint - LianLian Digital, a leading cross-border digital payment platform in China, has achieved robust growth through global expansion and technological innovation, with plans for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2024 to enhance its international competitiveness [1] Financial Performance - The company has built a payment network covering seven core global markets since its establishment in 2009 [1] - From 2020 to 2024, the revenue CAGR is projected to be 22%, with the core global payment business maintaining a gross margin above 70% [1] - Despite short-term pressure on overall gross margin due to business restructuring, losses have been continuously narrowing [1] - In 2024, total revenue is expected to reach 1.315 billion yuan, with global payment business revenue growing by 23.1% year-on-year to 808 million yuan and TPV exceeding 281.5 billion yuan [2] Market and Policy Environment - The payment industry is entering a new phase of compliance and digitalization driven by both policy and market forces [1] - The State Council of China issued the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non-Bank Payment Institutions" in 2023, which raises entry barriers and strengthens regulation, favoring capital-rich companies [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the global cross-border e-commerce GMV is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.3%, with China's digital payment market TPV projected to reach 354.1 trillion yuan by 2027 [1] - LianLian Digital holds a 9.1% market share as the largest independent payment provider in China, leveraging its licensing advantages [1] Innovation and Strategic Development - The company is enhancing its leading position in cross-border payments through high R&D investment and strategic partnerships [2] - It is exploring next-generation payment solutions using Web 3.0 and stablecoin technologies, indicating a strategic shift from a payment service provider to a digital ecosystem platform [2] - The passage of the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" in Hong Kong is expected to further drive industry innovation, providing merchants with new opportunities for rate optimization and business closure [1]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

Group 1: Company Actions and Financials - Lianlian Digital plans to issue 38.4 million new H-shares at a price of HKD 10.25 per share, representing a 10.09% discount from the last closing price, aiming to raise approximately HKD 393.6 million for global payment innovations and business expansion [1] - Kangji Pharmaceutical announced its intention to list on the Singapore Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international visibility and broaden financing channels [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense anticipates a net profit of HKD 460 million to HKD 540 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 213.25% to 267.73%, driven by improved production efficiency and revenue from ship products [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong has seen a significant increase in IPOs, with 11 companies raising a total of approximately HKD 18.119 billion, indicating strong market interest in the healthcare industry [2] - The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market shows positive trends, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.26% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, LianLian Digital, is positioned as a leading cross-border digital payment platform, leveraging global licenses and stablecoin innovations to drive growth and profitability [9][11]. - The report highlights a significant revenue growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 22% from 2020 to 2024, and a notable improvement in net profit margins as the company transitions towards profitability [9][25]. - The regulatory environment is evolving, with new policies promoting compliance and digitalization in the payment industry, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized firms like LianLian Digital [9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - LianLian Digital has established a robust global payment network since its inception in 2009, with a focus on compliance and technological innovation [15]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding approximately 26.84% of the shares, and has implemented long-term incentive plans to attract and retain key talent [18]. - The core team possesses extensive experience in fintech, driving the company's strategic direction and operational management [21]. Industry Development - The payment industry is entering a new phase characterized by increased regulation and digital transformation, with the introduction of the "Non-Bank Payment Institution Supervision and Management Regulations" in 2023 [33][34]. - The digital payment market in China is projected to grow significantly, with total payment volume (TPV) expected to reach 354.1 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 14.3% from 2022 [38]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 1.315 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [1]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with a significant increase to 1.399 billion yuan, indicating a 932% year-on-year growth [1]. - The report suggests a P/S valuation of 8.0x for 2025 and 7.0x for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential [9][14].

Group 1 - Guolian Minsheng (01456) expects a net profit of RMB 1.129 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183% [1] - NIO-SW (09866) saw a rise of over 10% as its sub-brand, Lido, officially launched pre-sales for its new model L90, priced starting at RMB 279,900, which is competitive against similar models [1] - China CNR (01766) rose over 7% following a profit warning, with the rail transit equipment industry showing high demand and Q2 performance exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - Coal stocks experienced a broad increase, with companies like China Qinfa (00866) and China Shenhua (01088) rising over 4%, driven by strong coal prices amid high temperatures [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a rise of 1.5%, with expected net profit growth of about 54% year-on-year for the first half of the year, although short-term impacts from copper tariffs are anticipated [1] Group 3 - WanGuo Data-SW (09698) increased over 6% after its REIT completed offline inquiries with a subscription multiple of 166 times, indicating significant valuation potential [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) rose over 4%, reaching a new high, with expectations that its performance and business development will act as key catalysts [2] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased over 5% as the merger of two shipbuilding companies approaches completion, with Q2 performance exceeding expectations [2] Group 4 - Bitcoin-related stocks saw significant gains, with Bit Origin (BTOG.US) rising 51.72% and SharpLink Gaming (SBET.US) increasing 17.15%, driven by a surge in Bitcoin prices [3] - Gold stocks strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, with Gold ETF (GLD.US) rising 0.96% and Barrick Mining (B.US) increasing 0.71% [3] Group 5 - British Petroleum (BP.US) rose 3.55% as the company anticipates an increase in Q2 oil production and strong trading performance [7] - Huami Technology (ZEPP.US) surged over 69%, projecting a 30% revenue growth for Q2, marking its first growth in three years [7]

本公告並非亦不構成於美國（包括其領土和屬地、美國任何州份和哥倫比亞地區）出售證券的要 約或邀請。本公告或其任何內容或其副本亦不得攜進美國境內或於美國境內直接或間接派發。 除非有關證券根據證券法或美國的任何其他適用證券法律辦理登記或獲得豁免遵守證券法或美 國任何其他適用證券法律的登記規定，否則有關證券未曾亦不會根據經修訂的1933年《美國證 券法》（「證券法」）或美國任何其他適用證券法律登記，且不得於美國提呈發售、出售或以其他 方式轉讓。任何在美國提呈的證券公開發售必須由本公司刊發招股章程，當中須載列本公司及 管理層以及財務報表的詳細資料。本公司並無計劃在美國公開發售任何證券。 連連數字科技股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2598） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告僅供參考，並不構成收購、購買或認購證券要約的邀請或邀約或訂立協議以進行任何此 類事情的邀請，亦不構成邀請任何收購、購買或認購任何證券 ...

Market Performance - Today, Hong Kong stocks showed significant movements with various companies experiencing notable gains, including Now Medical Technology (02225) which rose over 5% after a partnership with David Medical to develop "Minimally Invasive 5.0" technology [1] - Semiconductor stocks also saw an uptick, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) increasing by 4.12%, and SMIC (01347) rising by 3.11% [1][2] - Hong Kong Travel (00308) surged over 14%, doubling its stock price in less than a month, driven by speculation in the tourism industry [1] - Meituan-W (03690) rose over 3% as it led an investment in Star Sea Map, furthering its focus on embodied intelligence [1] - The insurance sector saw broad gains, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 4.88% and China Life Insurance (02318) increasing by 3.19% [1] Company-Specific Developments - Alibaba-W (09988) increased over 3%, although its investment in instant retail and delivery services may impact profitability, according to HSBC [2] - Qian Shi International (00381) skyrocketed by over 55% due to a proposed digital economy collaboration involving a stablecoin mechanism [2] - Stablecoin-related stocks rose, with Guotai Junan International (01788) up 9.13% and China Everbright Holdings (00165) increasing by 4.83% [2] - Yadi Holdings (01585) gained over 4% following the announcement of a new electric vehicle replacement program [3] - WuXi AppTec (02359) opened nearly 5% higher after announcing expected revenue exceeding 20 billion yuan and a projected doubling of net profit [3] Industry Trends - The electric vehicle sector is expected to see growth due to a new replacement program, which could accelerate industry expansion [3] - The rare earth sector is also experiencing upward momentum, with Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) rising over 5% after major players announced price increases [3] - The biotechnology sector is witnessing positive developments, with Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) gaining over 3% after a collaboration with Conade Biopharmaceuticals [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][16]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the cross-border payment industry in China, benefiting from the expansion of cross-border e-commerce [4][18]. - The company has obtained 65 global payment licenses, enabling it to provide a wide range of digital payment services [4][18]. - The projected revenue growth for the company is robust, with expected revenues of RMB 1,315 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 2,577 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [3][44]. - The company is expected to experience significant fluctuations in profits due to a one-time large investment gain in 2025, with net profits projected to be RMB 1,485 million in 2025, followed by losses in 2026 and a small profit in 2027 [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 1,315 million in 2024, RMB 1,652 million in 2025, RMB 2,089 million in 2026, and RMB 2,577 million in 2027, with growth rates of 28%, 26%, 26%, and 23% respectively [3][9]. - The net profit is expected to be negative RMB 168 million in 2024, positive RMB 1,485 million in 2025, negative RMB 73 million in 2026, and positive RMB 27 million in 2027 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.16 in 2024, 1.38 in 2025, -0.07 in 2026, and 0.03 in 2027 [3][10]. Business Overview - The company has established a global payment network, serving over 590,000 clients with a total transaction payment volume (TPV) of RMB 3.3 trillion in 2024 [4][25]. - The company’s digital payment services include both global and domestic payment solutions, with global payments accounting for approximately 60% of total revenue [25][30]. - The company is expanding its value-added services, which are expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 50%, 35%, and 30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. Market Potential - The cross-border e-commerce and export trade markets in China are expected to continue expanding, with the total export value projected to reach nearly RMB 47 trillion by 2027 [46]. - The demand for cross-border payment solutions is increasing as traditional foreign trade embraces digitalization and online operations [46][52]. - The cross-border payment service market in China is projected to grow from RMB 4.6 trillion in 2022 to RMB 14.1 trillion by 2027, with a CAGR of 25.2% [52][56].