Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Xing Sheng Commercial (06668.HK) [3] Core Views - Xing Sheng Commercial has a strong development certainty in the Greater Bay Area, with a strategic layout of "Bay Area Dual Centers, Twin Stars in One City" [1] - The company is focused on optimizing its business structure, with a significant portion of its projects located in the Greater Bay Area [1][19] - The company has a robust operational strength and brand recognition, with a stable financial position and leading advantages in the market [3] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xing Sheng Commercial has established a strong presence in the Greater Bay Area, with 33 out of 54 projects located there, accounting for 61.1% of total projects [1][19] - The company has a total contracted area of approximately 2.77 million square meters, with 1.77 million square meters already opened [1][14] 2. Business Model and Revenue Structure - The company operates through three main business models: entrusted management, brand and management output, and whole leasing services [2][39] - As of H1 2024, the revenue from entrusted management services was 210 million RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2] - The gross profit margins for entrusted management, brand output, and whole leasing services were 57.9%, 75.2%, and 12.7% respectively, maintaining stability compared to the previous year [2] 3. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 635 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with a gross margin of 52.5% [3][5] - The company has consistently paid high dividends, with a dividend per share of 0.12 RMB in 2023, representing a 12.2% increase and a payout ratio of 70% [3][31] 4. Growth Strategy - The company has a flexible strategy that adapts to market conditions, focusing on optimizing project structures and ensuring high-quality profit growth [3][35] - The management team is experienced and has a clear strategic direction, emphasizing the importance of talent development and operational efficiency [29][33] 5. Market Position and Recognition - Xing Sheng Commercial has been recognized as a leading commercial management company in the Greater Bay Area, receiving multiple awards for its operational excellence [26][27] - The company has a strong backing from its parent company, Xinghe Holdings, which provides financial stability and growth potential [12][13]

Company Operations - As of June 30, 2024, the company provided services to 54 commercial property projects across 21 cities in China, covering a total contracted gross floor area of approximately 2.77 million square meters[3]. - The company operates 29 retail commercial properties with a total operational gross floor area of about 1.77 million square meters[3]. - The company has a significant presence in the Greater Bay Area, positioning itself as a leading provider of commercial property operation services[3]. - The company has established a strong operational capability recognized in the market, contributing to its competitive advantage[3]. - The company has a diversified service offering, including property leasing, operational management, and value-added services, catering to both tenants and related clients[8]. - The company employs a commission-based management service model, allowing for a higher level of autonomy in managing projects, which is expected to enhance operational performance and increase revenue[6]. - The company focuses on enhancing the operational performance of commercial properties through professional management services, including market positioning and tenant recruitment[4]. Revenue and Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 313.8 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 8.8%[22]. - Revenue from entrusted management services was approximately RMB 209.7 million, accounting for 66.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of about 10.4%[22]. - Revenue from brand and management output services decreased by approximately 31.4% to RMB 43.5 million, representing 13.8% of total revenue[23]. - Revenue from leasing services increased by approximately 72.3% to RMB 60.6 million, accounting for 19.4% of total revenue[23]. - The company's service costs for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were approximately RMB 151.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 22.6%[25]. - The overall gross profit was approximately RMB 161.9 million, with a gross profit margin of about 51.6%, down from 57.1% in the same period last year[26]. - Selling expenses increased by approximately 198.5% to RMB 14.7 million, primarily due to increased marketing activities for new projects[32]. - Administrative expenses decreased by approximately 11.4% to RMB 31.8 million, mainly due to reduced preparation costs for leasing projects[33]. - The company reported a loss of approximately RMB 0.1 million from its share of a joint venture, primarily from its investment in Guangzhou Kaixing Commercial Management Co., Ltd.[35]. Assets and Liabilities - As of June 30, 2024, the group's trade and other receivables amounted to approximately RMB 333 million, an increase of about 18.0% compared to December 31, 2023, primarily due to business growth[38]. - The group's trade and other payables were approximately RMB 2,396 million as of June 30, 2024, a decrease of about 16.5% from December 31, 2023, mainly due to the payment of year-end bonuses[39]. - The group's debt-to-asset ratio was approximately 47.4% as of June 30, 2024, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from 45.3% on December 31, 2023, mainly due to an increase in payable dividends[43]. - The total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 1,901,349,000, a decrease from RMB 1,956,802,000 as of December 31, 2023[69]. - The company's total liabilities decreased to RMB 239,611,000 as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 286,984,000 as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 16.5%[101]. - The company’s total equity as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 8,487,000,000, reflecting a slight decrease from RMB 8,506,000,000 as of December 31, 2023[105]. Share Capital and Dividends - The total issued share capital of the company as of June 30, 2024, was 1,014,516,000 ordinary shares[56]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.048 per ordinary share for the six months ended June 30, 2024[64]. - The company has adopted a share incentive plan on April 17, 2023, granting 54,800,000 shares to 136 eligible participants, with 31,710,000 shares remaining unexercised as of June 30, 2024[63]. - The company repurchased a total of 761,000 shares on the stock exchange for a total consideration of HKD 979,750 during the six months ended June 30, 2024[57]. - The company has accumulated 1,937,000 shares purchased under the restricted share unit plan as of June 30, 2024[64]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company plans to enhance its flagship product line, COCO Park, focusing on attracting young consumers and improving product quality and innovation capabilities[17]. - The company aims to optimize its organizational capabilities and management processes to adapt to the changing market environment and enhance decision-making efficiency[16]. - The operational strategy includes a "one store, one policy" approach to improve customer experience and service levels, targeting the Hong Kong consumer market[18]. - New projects are set to open in 2023 and 2024, including COCO Parks and COCO Cities, contributing to future revenue growth[11]. - The company plans to continue focusing on operational efficiency and cost management to improve profitability in the upcoming quarters[72]. Compliance and Governance - The company has been compliant with the corporate governance code and listing rules, with efforts ongoing to fill the vacancy of an independent non-executive director[52]. - The audit committee reviewed the unaudited interim financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2024, ensuring adherence to accounting principles and internal controls[55]. - The company has no significant contingent liabilities as of June 30, 2024[40].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1.75, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 1.12 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company experienced an 8.1% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2024, despite an 8.8% increase in revenue to HKD 314 million. The gross profit decreased by 1.6% to HKD 162 million, with a gross margin of 51.6%, down 5.5 percentage points due to a higher proportion of lower-margin rental projects [1][3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, declaring an interim dividend of HKD 0.048 per share [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with cash on hand of HKD 1.466 billion, a 3.9% increase from the end of 2023, and generated cash income of HKD 17.55 million during the period [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported: - Revenue: HKD 314 million, up 8.8% year-on-year - Gross Profit: HKD 162 million, down 1.6% year-on-year - Net Profit: HKD 89 million, down 8.1% year-on-year - Gross Margin: 51.6%, down 5.5 percentage points [1][3]. - The company’s same-store sales increased by 8% and customer traffic rose by 16% during the same period, with an overall occupancy rate of 92.5% [1][3]. Project and Operational Insights - The company has opened two new rental projects in Guangzhou and Shanghai, bringing the total number of operational retail projects to 29, covering an area of 1.77 million square meters [1][3]. - The company has a project reserve of approximately 2.77 million square meters across 17 projects, with 44.2% of the area managed by third parties, indicating a solid growth trajectory [1][3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately HKD 157 million, HKD 198 million, and HKD 236 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" with a current stock price of 1.15 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 314 million HKD for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.1% to 89 million HKD [3]. - The company emphasizes quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in its ongoing projects, with same-store traffic increasing by 16% and same-store sales rising by 8% in H1 2024 [3]. - The overall gross margin stands at 51.6%, with stable margins across most operational models, despite some pressure from new projects still in the cultivation phase [3]. - The company has a strong cash position, with cash increasing by 3.9% compared to the end of 2023, and a dividend payout ratio of 50% [3]. - The company has opened new projects in Guangzhou and Shanghai, continuing its strategic focus on the Greater Bay Area and national expansion [3]. - The associated company, Xinghe Holdings, maintains a stable operation with a AAA credit rating, indicating strong financial health [3]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 314 million HKD, with a gross margin of 51.6% [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 0.15 HKD, 0.16 HKD, and 0.16 HKD respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are projected at 6.9x, 6.7x, and 6.5x [4][3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 2,325 million HKD in 2023 to 2,984 million HKD by 2026 [7].

Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the group's revenue was approximately RMB 313.8 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 8.8%[1] - For the same period, the company's profit attributable to owners was approximately RMB 89.1 million, a decrease of about 8.1% year-on-year[2] - The gross profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 161.9 million, compared to RMB 164.6 million for the same period in 2023[2] - The company's basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 8.80, down from RMB 9.54 in the previous year[2] - Operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 89,100,000, down from RMB 96,962,000 in the same period of 2023, indicating a decline of 8.2%[18] - The company's profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 86.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.0%[76] Revenue Breakdown - Customer contract revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 285,119,000, an increase from RMB 271,316,000 in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of 5.5%[11] - Revenue from entrusted management services reached RMB 209,691,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 189,983,000 in 2023, reflecting an increase of 10.4%[10] - Total revenue from commercial property operation services was RMB 313,780,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 288,487,000 in 2023, marking a growth of 8.8%[10] - Revenue from brand and management output services was approximately RMB 43.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 31.4%, accounting for approximately 13.8% of total revenue[64] - Revenue from whole rental services was approximately RMB 60.6 million, a year-on-year increase of about 72.3%, accounting for approximately 19.4% of total revenue[64] Cash and Assets - As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents along with short-term bank deposits totaled approximately RMB 1,465.6 million, an increase of about 3.9% compared to December 31, 2023[1] - Total assets less current liabilities amounted to RMB 1,901.3 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,956.8 million as of December 31, 2023[4] - The company's total equity attributable to owners was RMB 1,225.3 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,256.8 million at the end of 2023[4] - The company's trade and other receivables increased to RMB 58,811,000 as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 53,740,000 as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of 9.5%[19] - The company's cash and cash equivalents were approximately RMB 332.8 million as of June 30, 2024, a decrease of about 39.1% from December 31, 2023, mainly due to the management's decision to utilize idle funds for purchasing large bank certificates of deposit[80] Liabilities and Expenses - Non-current liabilities included lease liabilities of RMB 640.9 million as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 659.2 million at the end of 2023[4] - The company reported a decrease in administrative expenses to RMB 31.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from RMB 35.8 million in the same period of 2023[2] - The company reported a net income tax expense of RMB 27,374,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 29,815,000 in 2023, a decrease of 8.2%[14] - The company's trade payables increased to RMB 32,982,000 as of June 30, 2024, up 21% from RMB 27,177,000 as of December 31, 2023[21] Dividends and Share Repurchase - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.048 per ordinary share for the six months ended June 30, 2024[1] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.048 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, totaling approximately RMB 120,066,000, compared to RMB 64,802,000 for the same period in 2023[16] - A total of 761,000 shares were repurchased at a total cost of HKD 979,750, with the shares cancelled on February 29, 2024[92] Operational Strategy and Market Presence - The company provided services to 54 commercial property projects across 21 cities in China, with a total contracted building area of approximately 2.77 million square meters[25] - The company operates 29 retail commercial properties with a total operational building area of approximately 1.77 million square meters[25] - The company plans to enhance its flagship product line COCO Park, focusing on brand strength and targeting young consumer demographics[58] - The expansion strategy will focus on deepening presence in key markets such as the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta[61] - The company will implement a "One Store, One Strategy" operational approach to improve marketing and customer engagement[60] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company has complied with the corporate governance code, except for the absence of an independent non-executive director with appropriate professional qualifications since May 8, 2024[93] - The interim financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2024, has been reviewed by the company's auditors[95]

这个倒不是很大那我们大约是整个的24年我们基本也是在24年也是在这个十五万方左右那25年26年大约基本来讲也是目前这么一个大概的体量 好的明白谢谢马总然后客户的第二个提问是关于20年的今年的外拓的面积还有数量有没有基因谢谢我们在年初的时候因为业绩汇的时候很多投资人包括股东也问过我们这个问题我们内部的其实现在对于轻资产的拓展大方向肯定是以稳健为主 不能讲叫不能为了项目拿项目就是正常的去推进然后我们整个的这种拓展的方式区域也比较聚焦合作伙伴可能也是更多的集中于国企了因为以前兴盛也能看得到历史上拓的比较猛但是很多的一些合作方都是有些资金的问题所以我们也就主动的退出了所以就是 整体来说24年我们当时预计的话是大约是在就是我们想法肯定是在稳重求进的基础上越来越好但是我们内部的话也有一个指标就是我们还是希望能够大约是在比如说两到三个项目 一个项目大概8万方到10万方这么一个情况目前因为之前业绩会上也提过我们现在有一个项目应该已经进入到最后的状态了所以如果到时候会有确定的消息我们会及时的发一个 发一个自愿性的公告也是在大湾区也是一个国企的项目而且那个项目位置也非常的好现在目前基本已经到了后期的用意大概这么一个流程了具体的金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 2.05 [1][32]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving an annual revenue of HKD 635 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of HKD 171 million, up 10.9% year-on-year [26]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in revenue growth and gross margin forecasts for 2024-2025, with EPS estimates revised to HKD 0.17 and HKD 0.19 for 2024 and 2025 respectively, down from previous estimates of HKD 0.22 and HKD 0.27 [1][26]. - The company has successfully opened six high-quality projects in 2023, contributing to a 6.5% increase in management revenue, which accounted for 64% of total revenue [26]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of HKD 635 million in 2023, with a gross margin of 52.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [27]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 26.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.6% [27]. - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is HKD 702 million, with an expected growth rate of 10.5% [27]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be HKD 0.17, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.4 times [27]. Business Performance - The company operates 27 retail commercial properties with a total area of approximately 1.65 million square meters, and has 20 projects in preparation, providing a solid foundation for future growth [26]. - Same-store sales increased by 18% and customer traffic grew by 39% in 2023, indicating strong operational performance [26]. - The company is well-positioned in the Greater Bay Area, with a focus on high-quality project development, supported by its parent company, Xinghe Holdings [26].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 635,006 thousand, an increase of 13.0% from RMB 561,854 thousand in 2022[6] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 333,555 thousand, up from RMB 313,039 thousand in 2022, reflecting a gross margin improvement[6] - Net profit attributable to the owners of the company increased to RMB 171,097 thousand in 2023, compared to RMB 154,275 thousand in 2022, representing an increase of 10.9%[6] - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 16.84, up from RMB 15.15 in the previous year, indicating a growth of 11.1%[6] - The company's operating profit before tax for 2023 was RMB 238,829 thousand, an increase from RMB 208,345 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 14.7%[12] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 171,097 thousand for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to RMB 154,275 thousand for the previous year, marking an increase of about 10.9%[10] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of 2023 amounted to RMB 1,956,802 thousand, compared to RMB 1,849,036 thousand in 2022, showing an increase of 5.8%[8] - Current liabilities increased to RMB 367,844 thousand in 2023 from RMB 288,486 thousand in 2022, reflecting a rise of 27.5%[7] - The company’s non-current assets totaled RMB 855,514 thousand in 2023, an increase from RMB 818,905 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of 4.5%[7] - The company’s total equity increased to RMB 1,271,670 thousand in 2023 from RMB 1,180,703 thousand in 2022, reflecting a growth of 7.7%[8] - The total equity as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 1,256,765 thousand, compared to RMB 1,154,397 thousand at the end of 2022, indicating a growth of approximately 8.9%[10] - Trade and other payables amounted to approximately RMB 287.0 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% from RMB 208.1 million as of December 31, 2022[153] - The asset-liability ratio as of December 31, 2023, was approximately 45.3%, relatively stable compared to 44.9% as of December 31, 2022[156] Cash Flow and Financing - The net cash generated from operating activities for 2023 was RMB 369,917 thousand, compared to RMB 236,792 thousand in 2022, reflecting an increase of approximately 56.1%[12] - The financing costs for 2023 were RMB 38,285 thousand, up from RMB 23,342 thousand in 2022, which is an increase of approximately 64%[12] - The net cash flow from financing activities decreased to RMB (85,720) thousand in 2023 from RMB (118,172) thousand in 2022, representing a reduction of approximately 27.5%[13] - The company paid dividends amounting to RMB (64,802) thousand in 2023, a decrease of 45.2% compared to RMB (118,252) thousand in 2022[13] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB (436,248) thousand in 2023 from RMB (376,995) thousand in 2022, indicating a decline in liquidity[12] - The total cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 546,914 thousand at the end of 2023, up from RMB 485,888 thousand at the end of 2022, indicating a growth of about 12.6%[13] Operational Highlights - Revenue from entrusted management services was approximately RMB 406.4 million, accounting for about 64.0% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.5%[84] - Revenue from brand and management output services was approximately RMB 145.0 million, accounting for about 22.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.2%[84] - Revenue from leasing services was approximately RMB 83.6 million, accounting for about 13.2% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 97.9%[85] - The company's gross profit for the year was approximately RMB 333.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of about 6.6%[87] - The gross profit margin for the year was approximately 52.5%, a decrease of about 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous year[91] - The company operates under a commission management service model, which allows for higher autonomy in managing projects and potentially better operational performance[132] Strategic Initiatives - The group aims to enhance its operational quality by focusing on member strategies, tenant marketing platforms, and data strategies to improve customer shopping experiences[116] - The group plans to optimize its expansion model by concentrating on key markets, particularly in the Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta[102] - The group emphasizes a long-term approach to business, focusing on operational excellence and cultural insights to create localized commercial value[118] - The group has established a digital retail management system to drive continuous and effective business growth through data-driven decision-making[119] - The group will continue to implement a "big service system" to improve project management and service levels, aiming to provide warm and personalized services to customers[150] Employee and Market Presence - The total number of employees as of December 31, 2023, was 901, an increase from 826 in 2022[181] - As of December 31, 2023, the group has contracted to provide services for 55 commercial property projects across 21 cities in China, covering a total contracted building area of approximately 2.8 million square meters[106] - The average occupancy rate for COCO Park was 94.2% in 2023, while the overall average occupancy rate for all properties was 92.8%, an increase from 92.5% in 2022[146] - The group reported a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in foot traffic across its shopping centers in 2023, reflecting a strong consumer return to offline shopping[118] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its flagship product line COCO Park's brand strength in 2024, targeting a younger consumer demographic[149] - The company plans to improve member services and marketing through digitalization, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and service levels[125] - The company emphasizes a dual focus on quality and management improvement for sustainable growth in 2024[149] - The group aims to enhance its customer service system and member operations significantly in 2024, focusing on precise marketing and customer retention strategies[150]

资料来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 资料来源: 彭博 买入 2024 年 4 月 10 日 归母净利润同比增长 10.9%，提升派息：2023 年公司营业收入为 6.35 亿元，同比增长 13%；毛利 3.34 亿元，同比增长 6.6%；归母净利 润为 1.71 亿元，同比增长 10.9%。毛利率为 52.5%，同比下降 3.2 个 百分点，主要由于整租模式毛利率下降 7.6 个百分点（受新开业租金 减免及租赁准则影响），而品牌及输出管理模式毛利率提升 2.5 个百 分点，委托管理模式毛利率维持稳定。随着疫情结束，市场消费缓慢 复苏，公司盈利能力持续提升。公司持续加大轻资产项目应收款项催 收，全年实现经营性现金净流入 2.99 亿元，净现比为 1.75。期末在 手现金 14.37 亿元，同比增长 13%，在手现金充足。公司提升派息率 至 70%，每股派息 13 港仙，同比增长 23.8%。 在营项目表现稳健，储备充足：公司作为大湾区领先的商用物业运 营服务供应商，截至 23 年末已开业零售商业项目数量 27 个，面积达 165 万平方，筹备中项目 20 个，未来发展具备确定性。受疫情复苏、 两地通关影响，2 ...

星盛商业·公司年报点评 现金流量表 单位：百万元 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------------|------------------|-------|-------| | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 税后经营利润 | | 135 173 196 222 | | | | 折旧与摊销 | | 0 105 105 105 | | | | 财务费用 | | 38 -2 -3 -4 | | | | 其他经营资金 | | 126 -154 -80 -78 | | | | 经营性现金净流量 | | 299 123 219 245 | | | | 投资性现金净流量 | | 0 7 3 7 | | | | 筹资性现金净流量 | | 0 52 59 66 | | | | 现金流量净额 | | 299 181 281 318 | | | | 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD | ，平安证券研究所 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...