9月3日，摩根士丹利发布首份覆盖安能物流(09956)的研究报告，给予其"增持"(Overweight)评级，目标 价定为11.7港元，截至9月2日收盘，安能物流股价为8.10港元，按目标价计算，潜在上行空间达44%。 当前零担货运行业已进入存量竞争阶段，马太效应显著，安能物流的投资价值正逐步释放。作为行业龙 头，其在网络覆盖、产品结构、盈利能力上的优势，将助力其在中小玩家出清过程中持续提升市场份 额;同时叠加稳定的分红政策，安能物流已构成典型的"价值股"特征，随着行业整合深化与自身盈利效 率提升，安能物流有望在存量市场中进一步巩固龙头地位，迎来价值与业绩的双重释放，持续增长或将 成为其投资价值的最佳背书。 值得关注的是，安能物流2025年上半年业绩已展现稳健增长态势：期内零担货运总量682万吨，同比增 长6.2%;营业收入56.25亿元，同比增长6.4%;经调整净利润4.76亿元，同比增长10.7%，毛利率稳定在 15.6%，为全年增长奠定坚实基础。 摩根士丹利在研报中重点强调零担货运市场的成长机遇与安能物流的龙头优势。行业层面，2024年中国 零担货运(LTL)市场规模达1.7万亿元，但格局高度分散，约2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，9月3日，摩根士丹利发布首份覆盖安能物流(09956)的研究报告，给予其"增 持"(Overweight)评级，目标价定为11.7港元，截至9月2 日收盘，安能物流股价为8.10港元，按目标价计 算，潜在上行空间达44%。 安能物流作为中国零担快运龙头，正深度把握行业机遇。2024 年其货运量达1415万吨，同比增长 18%;2025年上半年网络覆盖全国99.6%的乡镇，显著优于同行85%-97% 的覆盖水平，为业务扩张提供坚 实网络支撑。产品结构的优化是其核心竞争力之一：其坚持 "有效规模增长" 战略，摒弃单纯规模扩 张，聚焦高毛利的小件(<70kg)与轻货(70-300kg)市场，这类品类单价与利润率显著高于大宗货运，2025 年上半年迷你小票货量同比增长 23.9%、小票零担货量增长14.0%，推动总票数同比提升25.2%至9057.2 万票，平均每票重量从2023年的93kg降至2025 年二季度的75kg，产品结构持续向高盈利品类倾斜。 值得关注的是，安能物流 2025 年上半年业绩已展现稳健增长态势：期内零担货运总量682 万吨，同比 增长6.2%;营业收入56.25 亿元，同 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - **Industries Discussed**: Lithium mining, copper, aluminum, steel, cement, coal, shipping (cruise industry), express delivery, logistics, insurance, industrial equipment. Key Points and Arguments Lithium Mining - Market misunderstanding regarding the resumption of operations at Ningde lithium mines, with a target for resumption set for November [4][3] - Seven mines in Yichun are awaiting a government decision on their operational status, with results expected by October or November [3][4] Copper - Copper smelting processing fees are currently negative, but no significant changes in smelting operations are anticipated [6][6] - New regulations on waste copper suppliers may increase domestic costs and affect supply, with an estimated monthly supply impact of 50,000 to 55,000 tons [7][7] Aluminum - The impact of anti-involution on alumina is minimal, with the industry remaining in a state of oversupply [8][8] Steel - Regional differences in steel production cuts, with some provinces actively implementing reductions while others, like Tangshan, have not yet enforced cuts [9][9] - Profitability in the steel sector has dropped significantly, leading to potential voluntary production cuts [9][9] Cement - Cement demand is declining, particularly in cities like Shanghai, prompting discussions among leading companies about potential production cuts [10][10] Coal - Coal prices are expected to stabilize between 600 and 700, with production checks likely if prices fall below 600 [11][11] Shipping (Cruise Industry) - The cruise industry has faced demand dilution due to illegal oil transport, impacting market performance [14][14] - Recent increases in shipping rates, from around 30,000 to 60,000, indicate a potential recovery in the sector [15][16] - Supply-side changes are expected to drive future price increases, with a focus on compliance and sanctions affecting operational efficiency [20][20] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a gradual price increase, with major players locking in market shares to stabilize pricing [26][26] - Concerns about social security changes impacting delivery costs were noted, but no drastic regulatory changes are expected [29][29] Logistics (Aneng Logistics) - Aneng is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery market, benefiting from structural changes and a growing market share [30][30] - The company is expected to see continued growth due to favorable market dynamics and competitive advantages [31][31] Insurance - The insurance sector has reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on cost control and structural improvements [39][39] - The growth in the insurance market is driven by fewer catastrophic events and improved expense management [39][39] Industrial Equipment - The industrial sector is entering a new upcycle, particularly in engineering machinery and lithium battery equipment, with expected growth rates of 46%, 24%, and 21% over the next three years [52][57] - Key drivers include equipment replacement cycles, infrastructure projects, and overseas market growth [54][55] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in various sectors indicates a cautious optimism, with potential for recovery in specific industries despite ongoing challenges [12][12] - The discussion highlighted the importance of regulatory changes and market dynamics in shaping future performance across sectors [12][12][12]

研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2025 安能物流（开曼） ANE (Cayman) (9956 HK) 2025H1 业绩点评：费控保障盈利韧性增长，中期分红超预期 FY2025H1 Performance Review: Expense Control Supports Profit Growth, Interim Dividend Exceeds Expectations [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$9.66 目标价 HK$11.60 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$11.37bn / US$1.46bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$3.10mn 发行股票数目 1,177mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$9.66-HK$6.66 注：现价 ...

September 5, 2025 09:57 AM GMT 安能物流 | Asia Pacific 快运市场龙头；首次覆盖给予 超配 (OW) 就货运量而言，安能是中国快运业务的龙头企业。根据我们 的预测，公司当前股价对应9倍2025年PE，5 的股息收益 率，与同行的20倍相比具有吸引力。我们预计，在反内卷的 背景下，行业竞争将在旺季有所缓解。 快运的强劲增长潜力：在万亿级零担市场中，我们认为快运业务具有强劲的增长 潜ⱱ，因为： 1）随着柔性供应链和重货电商的发展，货主对全国性网络和服务质 量的需求不断增加，2）小型专线和区域零担玩家在宏观不⮵的情⬅下加速退市 场，3）规模效应推动快运行业效率提升。中国的零担市场目⯥非常⮇散，按收入 计算，快运仅占约10％的市场份额。 安能有望把握增长机会：按 2024 年货运量计算，安能是中国最大的加盟⯆快运公 司，拥有最广的网络覆盖。我们预计公司将从快运行业的持续增长中受益，并从 落后的参与者手中夺取市场份额。安能通过迷你小票和小票货量增长不断改善货 量结构，带来了更高的盈⮵能ⱱ 竞争风险可控：由于新玩家进入大件快运市场，且同行采取了激进的竞争策略， 竞争影响下安能的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Aneng Logistics (ANE, 9956.HK) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, indicating a potential upside of 21.75% from the current price of HKD 9.61 as of September 5 [1]. Company Summary - Aneng Logistics demonstrated robust growth in the first half of 2025, with total LTL freight volume reaching 6.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Revenue was CNY 5.625 billion, up 6.4%, and adjusted net profit was CNY 476 million, reflecting a 10.7% increase, with a stable gross margin of 15.6% [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the Chinese LTL market, with a projected freight volume of 14.15 million tons in 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. By mid-2025, it aims to cover 99.6% of towns nationwide, significantly outperforming peers [4]. - Aneng Logistics focuses on optimizing its product structure, emphasizing high-margin small and light goods, which have shown significant growth in volume. The number of mini small tickets increased by 23.9%, and small LTL ticket volume grew by 14.0%, leading to a total ticket count increase of 25.2% to 90.572 million [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 30% in 2024, well above the industry average of 10%, driven by an asset turnover rate exceeding 200% and a net profit margin of 7.2% [5]. Industry Summary - The LTL market in China is expected to reach CNY 1.7 trillion by 2024, characterized by a highly fragmented landscape with 200,000 to 300,000 small and local freight companies capturing 90% of the revenue. The express segment, which has higher margins, currently accounts for only 10% [3]. - The express market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2027, with Aneng Logistics' market share projected to increase from 9% to 11% during this period. Industry forecasts suggest that this share could reach 35% by 2030 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Aneng Logistics, has demonstrated strong financial performance and growth potential amidst a transforming logistics industry, shifting from price competition to value competition [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aneng Logistics achieved a total freight volume of 6.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and operating revenue of 5.625 billion yuan, up 6.4% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit reached 476 million yuan, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year growth, with gross profit and gross margin at 880 million yuan and 15.6%, respectively [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company focuses on product structure optimization and digital transformation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3][4]. - Aneng Logistics has upgraded its "3300 flagship product," which exempts special charges for goods under 300 kg, leading to an 18.2% increase in freight volume for this category [3][4]. Digital Transformation - The company is advancing digital upgrades across its operations, transitioning from extensive management to refined operations at network points [4][5]. - Automation in sorting centers has significantly reduced costs, with a reported decrease of approximately 6% in per-kilogram costs at the Linyi center [4][5]. Service Quality Improvement - Aneng Logistics has initiated a "100-day quality rebirth campaign," resulting in a 5.3% reduction in average delivery time and an increase in service quality metrics [6]. - The company has expanded its network to over 38,000 points, a 22% increase year-on-year, achieving a 99.6% coverage rate in rural areas [6][7]. Market Position and Trends - The logistics industry is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," with market share increasingly consolidating among leading companies like Aneng Logistics, which holds over 60% market share among the top five firms [7][8]. - The company is actively enhancing its brand strength and exploring new business integration paths, as evidenced by its logistics festival [7][8]. Dividend and Financial Health - Aneng Logistics announced its first dividend post-IPO, with a payout ratio of 50%, reflecting its robust financial health and confidence in future growth [7][8]. - As of the first quarter, the company reported cash and cash equivalents of 2.01 billion yuan, a 50% increase year-on-year [7]. Conclusion - Aneng Logistics is transitioning from a traditional "cyclical stock" to a "value stock" with sustainable profitability, marking a significant shift in the Chinese logistics industry towards centralization and efficiency [9].

Group 1 - Company achieved a total freight volume of 6.82 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [1] - Revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 476 million yuan, up 10.7% [1] - The company announced its first dividend plan post-listing, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 2 - In the context of a price war in the less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics industry, the company delivered an unexpectedly strong mid-year report for 2025 [2] - The company is transitioning from a traditional "cyclical stock" to a "value stock" with sustainable profitability [2] - The company's scale effects and brand advantages are expected to become more pronounced as industry concentration increases and policies shift away from internal competition [2]

Group 1 - Company achieved a total freight volume of 6.82 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [1] - Revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 476 million yuan, up 10.7% [1] - The company announced its first dividend plan post-listing, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 2 - In the context of a price war in the less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics industry, the company delivered an unexpectedly strong mid-year report for 2025 [2] - The company has transformed from a traditional "cyclical stock" to a "value stock" with sustainable profitability [2] - The company is positioned to benefit from increasing industry concentration and policy shifts against internal competition, enhancing its scale effects and brand advantages [2]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 安能物流集團有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09956 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | USD | | 0.00002 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | USD | | 0.00002 | USD | ...