研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2025 安能物流（开曼） ANE (Cayman) (9956 HK) 2025H1 业绩点评：费控保障盈利韧性增长，中期分红超预期 FY2025H1 Performance Review: Expense Control Supports Profit Growth, Interim Dividend Exceeds Expectations [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$9.66 目标价 HK$11.60 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$11.37bn / US$1.46bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$3.10mn 发行股票数目 1,177mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$9.66-HK$6.66 注：现价 ...

September 5, 2025 09:57 AM GMT 安能物流 | Asia Pacific 快运市场龙头；首次覆盖给予 超配 (OW) 就货运量而言，安能是中国快运业务的龙头企业。根据我们 的预测，公司当前股价对应9倍2025年PE，5 的股息收益 率，与同行的20倍相比具有吸引力。我们预计，在反内卷的 背景下，行业竞争将在旺季有所缓解。 快运的强劲增长潜力：在万亿级零担市场中，我们认为快运业务具有强劲的增长 潜ⱱ，因为： 1）随着柔性供应链和重货电商的发展，货主对全国性网络和服务质 量的需求不断增加，2）小型专线和区域零担玩家在宏观不⮵的情⬅下加速退市 场，3）规模效应推动快运行业效率提升。中国的零担市场目⯥非常⮇散，按收入 计算，快运仅占约10％的市场份额。 安能有望把握增长机会：按 2024 年货运量计算，安能是中国最大的加盟⯆快运公 司，拥有最广的网络覆盖。我们预计公司将从快运行业的持续增长中受益，并从 落后的参与者手中夺取市场份额。安能通过迷你小票和小票货量增长不断改善货 量结构，带来了更高的盈⮵能ⱱ 竞争风险可控：由于新玩家进入大件快运市场，且同行采取了激进的竞争策略， 竞争影响下安能的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Aneng Logistics (ANE, 9956.HK) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, indicating a potential upside of 21.75% from the current price of HKD 9.61 as of September 5 [1]. Company Summary - Aneng Logistics demonstrated robust growth in the first half of 2025, with total LTL freight volume reaching 6.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Revenue was CNY 5.625 billion, up 6.4%, and adjusted net profit was CNY 476 million, reflecting a 10.7% increase, with a stable gross margin of 15.6% [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the Chinese LTL market, with a projected freight volume of 14.15 million tons in 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. By mid-2025, it aims to cover 99.6% of towns nationwide, significantly outperforming peers [4]. - Aneng Logistics focuses on optimizing its product structure, emphasizing high-margin small and light goods, which have shown significant growth in volume. The number of mini small tickets increased by 23.9%, and small LTL ticket volume grew by 14.0%, leading to a total ticket count increase of 25.2% to 90.572 million [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 30% in 2024, well above the industry average of 10%, driven by an asset turnover rate exceeding 200% and a net profit margin of 7.2% [5]. Industry Summary - The LTL market in China is expected to reach CNY 1.7 trillion by 2024, characterized by a highly fragmented landscape with 200,000 to 300,000 small and local freight companies capturing 90% of the revenue. The express segment, which has higher margins, currently accounts for only 10% [3]. - The express market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2027, with Aneng Logistics' market share projected to increase from 9% to 11% during this period. Industry forecasts suggest that this share could reach 35% by 2030 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Aneng Logistics, has demonstrated strong financial performance and growth potential amidst a transforming logistics industry, shifting from price competition to value competition [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aneng Logistics achieved a total freight volume of 6.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and operating revenue of 5.625 billion yuan, up 6.4% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit reached 476 million yuan, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year growth, with gross profit and gross margin at 880 million yuan and 15.6%, respectively [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company focuses on product structure optimization and digital transformation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3][4]. - Aneng Logistics has upgraded its "3300 flagship product," which exempts special charges for goods under 300 kg, leading to an 18.2% increase in freight volume for this category [3][4]. Digital Transformation - The company is advancing digital upgrades across its operations, transitioning from extensive management to refined operations at network points [4][5]. - Automation in sorting centers has significantly reduced costs, with a reported decrease of approximately 6% in per-kilogram costs at the Linyi center [4][5]. Service Quality Improvement - Aneng Logistics has initiated a "100-day quality rebirth campaign," resulting in a 5.3% reduction in average delivery time and an increase in service quality metrics [6]. - The company has expanded its network to over 38,000 points, a 22% increase year-on-year, achieving a 99.6% coverage rate in rural areas [6][7]. Market Position and Trends - The logistics industry is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," with market share increasingly consolidating among leading companies like Aneng Logistics, which holds over 60% market share among the top five firms [7][8]. - The company is actively enhancing its brand strength and exploring new business integration paths, as evidenced by its logistics festival [7][8]. Dividend and Financial Health - Aneng Logistics announced its first dividend post-IPO, with a payout ratio of 50%, reflecting its robust financial health and confidence in future growth [7][8]. - As of the first quarter, the company reported cash and cash equivalents of 2.01 billion yuan, a 50% increase year-on-year [7]. Conclusion - Aneng Logistics is transitioning from a traditional "cyclical stock" to a "value stock" with sustainable profitability, marking a significant shift in the Chinese logistics industry towards centralization and efficiency [9].

Group 1 - Company achieved a total freight volume of 6.82 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [1] - Revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 476 million yuan, up 10.7% [1] - The company announced its first dividend plan post-listing, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 2 - In the context of a price war in the less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics industry, the company delivered an unexpectedly strong mid-year report for 2025 [2] - The company is transitioning from a traditional "cyclical stock" to a "value stock" with sustainable profitability [2] - The company's scale effects and brand advantages are expected to become more pronounced as industry concentration increases and policies shift away from internal competition [2]

Group 1 - Company achieved a total freight volume of 6.82 million tons in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [1] - Revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 476 million yuan, up 10.7% [1] - The company announced its first dividend plan post-listing, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 2 - In the context of a price war in the less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics industry, the company delivered an unexpectedly strong mid-year report for 2025 [2] - The company has transformed from a traditional "cyclical stock" to a "value stock" with sustainable profitability [2] - The company is positioned to benefit from increasing industry concentration and policy shifts against internal competition, enhancing its scale effects and brand advantages [2]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 安能物流集團有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09956 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | USD | | 0.00002 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | USD | | 0.00002 | USD | ...

Core Viewpoint - Aneng Logistics (9956.HK) has delivered an unexpectedly strong performance in the first half of 2025, with growth in revenue, profit, and cargo volume, demonstrating its strategic shift from "scaling up" to "enhancing value" amidst a competitive express delivery industry [1] Performance Verification: Surpassing Expectations - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 5.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, achieved on a high base from the previous year, indicating the company's resilience [2] - Total cargo volume was 6,821 thousand tons, up 6.2% year-on-year, with total ticket numbers increasing significantly by 25.2% to 90.6 million tickets, while average ticket weight decreased from 89 kg to 75 kg, reflecting an optimized cargo weight structure [2] - The proportion of e-commerce shipments has risen to 36%, showcasing Aneng's capability to meet the growing demand from the consumer end [2] Profitability: Stable and Upward - Adjusted net profit reached 476 million yuan, a 10.7% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.5%, marking the third consecutive quarter of sequential improvement [3] - Transportation costs decreased by 11 yuan to 295 yuan per ton, benefiting from investments in new energy and intelligent driving vehicles, optimized fleet utilization, and lower oil prices [3] - The company holds a healthy net cash position of 2.18 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 40%, allowing for continued investment in vehicle upgrades and digitalization [3] Strategic Elevation: From Scaling Up to Enhancing Value - Aneng Logistics focuses on three core areas for future growth: products, network, and technology [4] - The "3300 product policy" continues to be a competitive advantage, with a monthly subsidy of approximately 16 million yuan, driving an 18.2% year-on-year increase in cargo volume for shipments under 300 kg [4] - The number of partners and agents has exceeded 38,000, covering 99.6% of counties and towns, enhancing service speed and customer experience [5] Technology and Brand Development - The company has added over 200 LNG and intelligent driving vehicles and implemented automated sorting lines, leading to a downward trend in unit transportation costs [6] - Digitalization efforts have reached over 70% penetration across national outlets, aiming for full coverage within the year [6] - Aneng Logistics hosted the first "Aneng ANE Logistics Festival," attracting 450 million online participants, enhancing brand recognition and social value [7] Valuation Reassessment: First Dividend Marks a New Era - Aneng Logistics announced its first cash dividend with a payout ratio of 50%, signaling a transition from a growth-focused company to one that balances value and growth [10] - The board indicated that the dividend is part of a long-term plan, enhancing investor confidence in the company's profitability [10] - The overall logistics industry is experiencing a structural improvement, with Aneng positioned to benefit from this trend [11] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The express delivery sector is witnessing a shift towards a more stable and profitable environment, with Aneng's differentiated product offerings and network density providing a competitive edge [12] - The company's valuation is currently at a PE of 11, significantly lower than its historical average and compared to peers, indicating potential for upward revaluation [15][17] - Aneng Logistics is seen as a "cash cow" with sustainable cash flow, combining growth potential with defensive attributes, appealing to institutional investors [18]

Core Viewpoint - Aneng Logistics has successfully transformed from a "cyclical stock" to a "value stock," demonstrating strong performance in the logistics sector despite industry challenges [1][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aneng Logistics reported revenue of 5.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 476 million yuan, up 10.7% [1]. - The total volume of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight reached 6.82 million tons, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50%, marking its first dividend since going public [5]. Profitability and Cost Control - Aneng Logistics achieved a net profit margin of 8.4% and a stable gross profit margin of 15.6%, indicating strong cost control and profitability [2][3]. - The gross profit reached 880 million yuan, showcasing the company's ability to maintain high margins [2]. Growth Drivers - The introduction of the "3300" product led to an 18.2% increase in freight volume for goods under 300 kg, enhancing the average unit profit by 7 yuan per ton [3]. - The company expanded its network to over 38,000 outlets, achieving a 99.6% coverage in rural areas, which supports sustained growth in freight volume [3]. Cost Structure - The unit cost for trunk transportation was 295 yuan per ton, down 3.6%, while the overall cost decreased by 9 yuan per ton to 696 yuan [4]. - Investments in digital upgrades and smart vehicles are expected to further enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [4]. Market Valuation and Future Outlook - Aneng Logistics' stock price rose to 8.09 HKD, reflecting a 20% increase year-to-date, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 11.14, significantly lower than competitors [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from three growth engines: deepening e-commerce collaboration, penetration of small-ticket strategies, and strong operating cash flow [5]. - Analysts are optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects, with target prices set at 11 HKD and 12 HKD, indicating potential upside of 36%-48% [6]. Brand Development - Aneng Logistics is enhancing its brand value through initiatives like the "Aneng Logistics Carnival," which reached 450 million online views, aiming to strengthen its market position [6].

Core Viewpoint - Aneng Logistics has successfully transformed from a "cyclical stock" to a "value stock," demonstrating strong performance in the face of industry challenges, particularly in the less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics sector [1][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Aneng Logistics reported revenue of 5.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 476 million yuan, up 10.7% [1]. - The total volume of LTL freight reached 6.82 million tons, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50%, marking its first dividend since going public [5]. Profitability and Cost Control - Aneng Logistics achieved a net profit margin of 8.4%, with gross profit reaching 880 million yuan and a stable gross margin of 15.6% [2][3]. - The company successfully reduced unit transportation and distribution costs by 9 yuan per ton, aided by automation and digitalization efforts [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The introduction of the "3300" product, which exempts special charges for goods under 300 kg, led to an 18.2% increase in freight volume for this category [3]. - Aneng Logistics expanded its network to over 38,000 outlets, achieving a 99.6% coverage in rural areas, which supports sustained growth in freight volume [3]. Market Position and Valuation - As of August 22, 2025, Aneng's stock price was 8.09 HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of nearly 20% [5]. - The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio stands at 11.14, significantly lower than competitors, indicating potential for valuation re-rating [5][6]. Future Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from deeper collaboration with e-commerce platforms, with e-commerce revenue reaching 36% in Q1 2025 [5]. - The growth rate for freight under 70 kg is projected to maintain over 25%, with high-margin products accounting for over 60% of total volume [5]. - Strong operating cash flow of 675 million yuan in the mid-term report supports the sustainability of future dividends [5]. Brand Development - Aneng Logistics is enhancing its brand value through initiatives like the "Aneng Logistics Carnival," which reached 450 million people online [6]. - Several institutions, including CICC, have raised their target prices for Aneng Logistics, indicating optimism about its long-term growth prospects [6].