纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 SP主力合约收盘价： 4878.00 | 日期 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 4878.00 | 5016.00 | 5060.00 | 5044.00 | 5008.00 | | 折美元价 | 597.56 | 613.50 | 619.75 | 618.06 | 614.33 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -2.75120% | -0.86957% | 0.31721% | 0.71885% | 0.00000% | | 山东银星基差 | 687 | 594 | 550 | 566 | 602 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 682 | 609 | 565 | 581 | 617 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

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1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 230家焦化产能利用率 230家焦炭产量 全样本焦化焦炭库存 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/30 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1427.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -108.16 | -17.12% 高炉开工率 | 90.86 | | 0.51 | 0.84 | 8.09% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -110.00 | 1.20% 铁水日均产量 | 242.36 | | 1.34 | 2.23 | 7.78% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1605.00 | ...

Market Performance - The diversified financial sector rose by 2.2% on September 29, with Ruida Futures leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Ruida Futures (002961) closed at 20.91, with a gain of 4.86% and a trading volume of 75,600 lots, totaling a transaction value of 156 million [1] - Nanhua Futures (603093) closed at 21.29, up 4.72%, with a trading volume of 143,200 lots and a transaction value of 301 million [1] - Yong'an Futures (600927) closed at 15.09, increasing by 3.85%, with a trading volume of 108,600 lots and a transaction value of 162 million [1] - Other notable performers include Jianyuan Trust (600816) up 3.62%, Zhongyou Capital (000617) up 3.19%, and Yukuang Capital (600390) up 3.09% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The diversified financial sector saw a net inflow of 254 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of approximately 96.58 million [2][3] - Main funds showed significant net inflows in stocks like Zhonghai Capital (000617) with 71.1 million and Yuexiu Capital (000987) with 64.07 million [3] - Conversely, retail investors withdrew from stocks such as Zhonghai Capital and Yuexiu Capital, with outflows of 34.12 million and 33.85 million respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The inaugural "Yongan Day" event emphasizes Yongan Futures' commitment to its enduring spirit and its strategic transition towards higher quality and resilience in the future [1]. Group 1: Company Development and History - Yongan Futures officially moved into a new headquarters covering 22,000 square meters, marking a significant milestone in its development journey [3]. - The company's history of five relocations reflects its growth trajectory, starting from its inception in 1994 to its current position as a leading player in the financial sector [3]. - The new headquarters is seen as a critical node in Yongan Futures' journey to build a first-class derivatives investment bank [3]. Group 2: Strategic Planning and Future Direction - Over the past 20 years, Yongan Futures has achieved multidimensional breakthroughs through four five-year plans, focusing on various aspects such as market expansion and the establishment of an investment research ecosystem [4]. - The company plans to shift from a license-centered approach to a customer-centric model during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to create value through collaboration and resource aggregation [5]. - Four key reform initiatives were announced, including the "ESG brand" to demonstrate social responsibility, a comprehensive risk control platform, a research empowerment brand, and a full lifecycle service system to support high-quality development for enterprises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The inaugural "Yongan Day" event marks a significant milestone for Yongan Futures, emphasizing its commitment to customer-centric reforms and the establishment of a new operational base in Wangjiang New City, which symbolizes the start of a new development journey for the company [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Highlights - The event featured a plaque unveiling ceremony, signifying Yongan Futures' official move to its new headquarters, which is seen as a pivotal point in its development strategy [1] - Key figures, including the Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of Caitong Securities, acknowledged Yongan Futures' achievements over the past 30 years and encouraged the company to continue its mission of contributing to the real economy and enhancing group collaboration [1] - The event also included the launch of the "Yongan Day" initiative, which is part of a broader strategy to focus on customer needs and enhance service offerings [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Yongan Futures aims to create a more agile and resilient organization by adopting a customer-centric approach and leveraging digital intelligence as a core engine for sustainable growth [2] - Four key reform outcomes were announced, including the "ESG Brand" to demonstrate social responsibility, a comprehensive risk control platform, a research brand to empower client decision-making, and a lifecycle service system for enterprises [2] - The company also promoted its "family culture" by launching a union brand and recognizing outstanding teams and individuals in cultural initiatives [2] Group 3: Employee Engagement - Employees shared personal growth stories with Yongan Futures, highlighting the company's commitment to fostering a culture of continuous improvement and innovation [3] - A "Time Capsule" ceremony was held to symbolize the collective memory and future aspirations of the company's workforce [3] - The event concluded with a choir performance of the company anthem, reinforcing the collective spirit and commitment to achieving greater success in the future [3]

示 沥青早报 示 贸易商基差 ( +80 华朱皋芳 川朱本 500 400 700 300 300 500 200 100 300 100 -100 100 10/1 11/1 12/1 -100 -300 -100 -200 -300 -500 -300 华东基差(镇江库) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 山东县差 2019 2020 华南基差(佛山库) 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 ·2025 BU10-12 700 500 400 300 500 300 200 300 100 100 -100 100 9/19 10/3 -300 -100 -100 -500 -300 -200 2019 -2022 2019 2020 2021 2020 2022 2021 ·2019 -2020 -2021 2022 2023 -2023 -2024 2024 2025 2025 =2023 - 2024 -2025 BU12-03 BU11-01 BU连 -连_ 300 400 200 150 300 200 100 200 50 100 100 0 -50 -1 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Spot Market Information Price and Changes - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is 106.50, with a daily change of 0.30 and a weekly change of 0.90 [3] - For Australian mainstream ores: Newman powder is 792 (daily change: 2, weekly change: 3), PB powder is 795 (daily change: 2, weekly change: 3), etc [3] - For Brazilian mainstream ores: BHP Blend is 830 (daily change: 3, weekly change: 9), etc [3] Import Profit - Import profit of Newman powder is -34.69, PB powder is -16.23, etc [3] Group 3: Forward Market Information Price and Changes - On the DCE: i2601 is 805.5 (daily change: 2.0, weekly change: 5.5), i2605 is 785.5 (daily change: 2.5, weekly change: 7.0), etc [3] - On the SGX: FE01 is 103.03 (daily change: 0.00, weekly change: -0.23), FE05 is 100.91 (daily change: -0.05, weekly change: -0.33), etc [3] Spread - The monthly spread of i2601 is -40.5, i2605 is 20.0, etc [3] Group 4: Other Information - Data Source: MYSTEEL [6]

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/26 最新变化 -0.20% -0.12% -0.10% -0.24% -0.07% -0.40% 一周变化 -0.47% -0.14% -0.11% -0.22% 0.11% 1.09% 一月变化 0.91% 0.11% 1.03% 0.67% 0.53% 1.25% 一年变化 3.04% 3.85% 5.04% 7.37% 6.88% 11.92% 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3853.30 | 4593.49 | 2952.74 | 3235.76 | 7341.32 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.01 | 0.60 | 0.45 | 1.58 | 0.24 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.13 | 11.70 | 34.89 | 27.49 | 19.42 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, the market rose significantly driven by the news of MSK's price increase. The 10 - 12 month spread was -582.1 (-58.7), and the 02 - 04 month spread was 327.1 (+26.1). The 10 - contract basis was around 95 points [1][18]. - In early October, the goods receipt was still weak. After the market closed, MSK raised the post - holiday weekly仓位 to $1800 (+$400). However, the purpose of this price increase was to stabilize prices and encourage downstream shippers to stock up before the holiday, not a real price increase, and the final implementation was expected to be poor. The 10 - contract could be shorted depending on the subsequent upward trend [1][18]. - After the holiday, there were multiple upward drivers, including multiple price - increase announcement nodes and high operational space for shipping companies to reduce speed and suspend voyages. The period from December to January was a long - term favorable period [1][18]. - From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the 12 - contract was not low, but funds might be more concentrated on this contract, so a long - allocation strategy was recommended in the short term. The cost - performance of the 02 - contract might be higher than that of the 12 - contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 was relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 - contract might be high. The 04 - contract was currently in a low - valuation range and was more suitable for short - allocation as an off - season contract, but its low liquidity might make it easily disturbed [1][18]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.4, with a change of 1.31%, yesterday's trading volume was 40940, and the position was 22606 with a change of -568 [1][18]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1696.5, with a change of 4.50%, yesterday's trading volume was 26219, and the position was 488 [1][18]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1588.1, with a change of 3.42%, yesterday's trading volume was 147.9, and the position was 8043 with a change of 442 [1][18]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1261.0, with a change of 2.14%, yesterday's trading volume was 179.2, and the position was 8931 with a change of 77 [1][18]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1445.3, with a change of 1.69%, yesterday's trading volume was -6, and the position was 105 [1][18]. Spread between Futures Contracts - FC2510 - 2512: The spread was -582.1, with a previous value of -523.4 and a change of -58.7 [1][18]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 108.4, with a previous value of 87.8 [1][18]. Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS: Updated weekly. As of September 15, 2025, the index was 1566.46, the previous value was 1440.24, and the value two periods ago was 1773.60, with a current - period decline of 8.06% and a next - period decline of 11.68% [1][18]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday. As of September 19, 2025, the index was 1052, the previous value was 1154, and the value two periods ago was 1315, with a current - period decline of 8.84% and a next - period decline of 12.24% [1][18]. - CCFI: Updated every Friday. As of September 19, 2025, the index was 1470.97, the previous value was 1638.77, and the value two periods ago was 1537.28, with a current - period decline of 4.31% and a next - period decline of 6.19% [1][18]. - NCFI: Updated every Friday. As of September 19, 2025, the index was 673.61, the previous value was 729.42, and the value two periods ago was 855.93, with a current - period decline of 7.65% and a next - period decline of 14.78% [1][18]. Recent European Line Quotations - Week 39: The average quotation was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted $1500 (later raised to $1570), the PA alliance quoted between $1550 - $1600, and the OA alliance quoted between $1600 - $1720 [1][18]. - Week 40 - 41: There were space allocations in these two weeks (because most of the cargo volume in Week 41 was handled through skipping voyages during the holiday). The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted $1400, the PA alliance quoted between $1300 - $1500 (YML's $1300 was the lowest price of the year), and the OA alliance quoted between $1400 - $1600 [1][18]. - Week 42: MSK opened with a quotation of $1800 (a month - on - month increase of $400), CMA opened with a quotation of $2520 (an increase of $900), and HPL opened with a quotation of $2035 (an increase of $600) [1][18].