02后面主要看现货走势, 1月运价见顶高度与时间、 后续跌价等节奏很难预估，当前点位下不建议入场。 _ 地缘反转、节前减仓、跌无可跌后的涨价函），思路以连高空为主。 04估值中性偏高，但短期存在上行风险（资金移仓、 远月受地缘影响大；在复航预期、淡季的长期逻辑下，10逢高空思路为主。 ગઢ 美容量版 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को प्रति | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1.31% | 572.7 | 6762 | | 21197 | -26 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on December 29, 2025, was 5510.00 [3] - The closing prices from December 23 - 26, 2025, were 5620.00, 5620.00, 5604.00, and 5630.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding US - dollar prices were 698.78, 700.03, 698.96, 702.06, and 686.78 [3] - The daily price changes were - 0.03557%, 0.00000%, - 0.28470%, 0.46395%, and - 2.13144% [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on December 29, 2025, was 80, and the Yangtze River Delta Yinxing basis was 50 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was 51.39, for Canadian Lion pulp was - 287.55, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp was - 24.91 [4] - The port US - dollar prices were 780, 730, and 700 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6300, 5565, and 5590 [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From December 23 - 29, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, kraft pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 [4] - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and most of the price indices remained unchanged, except for the life - paper index which increased by 2 to 857 [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margins - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper and double - copper paper remained unchanged from December 24 - 29, 2025, at - 4.4235% and 5.9667% respectively [4] - The estimated profit margin of white - card paper remained unchanged at - 8.9723% [4] - The estimated profit margin of life - paper increased from 3.5917% to 4.3314%, a change of 0.7397 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From December 23 - 29, 2025, the softwood - hardwood pulp price spread was 930.00, the softwood - kraft pulp price spread was 190, the softwood - chemimechanical pulp price spread was 1740, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4014 [4]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 变化 90 582 0 7231 - -3091.77 -2.0 ...

在公司发展定位方面，永安期货坚持"以客户为中心"，打造一流衍生品投行。"《意见》强调要完善期 货公司功能定位。"马志伟介绍，永安期货立足期货市场三大功能，从"以牌照为中心"全面转向"以客户 为中心"，聚焦期货和衍生品专长，锚定"行业领先、独具特色的衍生品投行"的战略目标，不搞低水平 竞争、不打价格战，通过"活前台、强中台、稳后台"优化组织架构和服务体系，在总部打造产融服务中 心、财富服务中心、客户服务中心、投研中心等业务中台，将分支机构打造成独当一面、独具特色 的"小永安"，为客户提供好产品、好策略、好服务、好投研。 《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展的意见》（下称《意见》）的发布，为中国期货行业 描绘了规范发展的新蓝图。一年多来，期货市场监管体系日益完善，市场生态持续优化，服务实体经济 的能力显著提升。面对行业变革，永安期货以《意见》为指引，从战略定位、服务升级到科技赋能全方 位发力，积极探索更高水平的发展路径。在永安期货总经理马志伟看来，未来期货公司唯有坚守合规底 线、深化服务实体经济、拥抱科技创新，才能在实现自身高质量发展的同时，为行业转型升级贡献力 量。 重塑行业生态 筑牢高质量发展根基 " ...

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间:2025/12/29 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 隐波指教分位教与波动率价差分位费排名图 1、隐波分位数代表当前品种隐波在历史上的水平。分位教高代表当前稳波偏高。分位数低代表稳疲隔低。2、波动率价差书急按指数十历史皮 动率。 隐含波动率分位数排名 历史波动率分位数排名 Ph 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 42 6) 85 限 36 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 ore 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0 ora 1 70 -300股指 IV -- 300股指 HV IV-HV美 IV-HV美 - 50ETF IV - 50ETF HV 20 20 80 IV-HV差 -- 1000股指 IV -- 1000股指 HV V-HV美 - 500ETF I ...

ગ્રેટ 美容量报 | 研究中心能化团队 | 2025/12/29 | 持仓变动 | स्त्रो | 昨日收费投 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓畳 | EC2512 | 0.31% | 82 | -39 | 1613.0 | -23.8 | 1675 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.38% | -2401 | EC2602 | 26553 | 31849 | 1824.5 | -235.3 | EC2604 | -0.83% | 7478 | 21462 | 208 | 434.4 | 1154.8 | -0.29% | 123 | EC2606 | 1316.2 | 734 | 2249 | 273.0 | | | | | | ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/29 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB BRENT 1- dated bre | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | 2025/12/22 | 58.01 | 62.07 | 62.12 | - 0.49 | -4.06 | 0.28 | 174.22 | 11.10 | 215.81 | 28.57 | | 2025/12/23 | 58.38 | 62.38 | 62.11 | - 0.51 | -4.00 | 0.64 | 174.32 | 10.83 | 219.06 | 29.63 | | 2025/12/24 | 58.35 | 62.24 | 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing a significant resurgence, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $79.3 per ounce, both reaching historical highs as uncertainties dissipate [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 72.69%, approaching the second-highest historical record from 1974, while silver's annual increase stands at 173.99%, significantly surpassing the 83.61% rise in 2010 [1][2]. - The silver market is expected to set a historical record for annual growth in 2025, with a market dynamic characterized by gold leading and silver experiencing explosive growth [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Trends - Investment demand has overtaken central bank gold purchases as the primary driver of the market, alongside structural squeezes in the silver market due to global inventory issues and strong industrial demand [2]. - A decline of approximately 10% in the US dollar index, coupled with the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion, has contributed to the bullish sentiment in precious metals [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect the strong performance of gold and silver to continue, although they anticipate that the rate of increase will not match the extraordinary levels seen in 2025 [5]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is viewed as optimistic, with expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global liquidity environment remaining loose, which may influence the performance of risk assets and the appeal of gold as a safe haven [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - The global precious metals market is deemed suitable for strategic allocation, with gold recommended as a core defensive asset supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows, while silver is suggested for high-elasticity allocation during phases of capital inflow [6]. - Analysts have identified potential risks for silver, including rapid capital withdrawal from ETFs, the return of US silver stocks to London, and the lack of inclusion of silver in global central bank balance sheets, which may affect its status as a defensive reserve asset [6].

证券之星消息，12月24日多元金融板块较上一交易日上涨1.38%，瑞达期货领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3940.95，上涨0.53%。深证成指报收于13486.42，上涨0.88%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002961 | 瑞达期货 | 29.21 | 10.02% | 30.45万 | | 8.58亿 | | 600927 | 永安期货 | 15.44 | 3.42% | 9.74万 | | 1.49亿 | | 600053 | 九鼎投资 | 20.08 | 3.40% | 12.24万 | | 2.43亿 | | 600599 | *ST熊猫 | 10.31 | 3.00% | 14.39万 | | 1.47亿 | | 603093 | 南华期货 | 19.39 | 2.81% | 9.36万 | | ...

中国经济网北京12月24日讯 中国证监会天津监管局网站近日公布关于对永安期货股份有限公司天津分公司采取出具警示函措施的决定。 经查，永安期货股份有限公司天津分公司存在以下问题：一是客户回访工作不到位，违反了《期货公司监督管理办法》第五十六条的规定；二是任用无 从业资格的人员从事期货业务，违反了《期货公司监督管理办法》第五十六条、《期货从业人员管理办法》第十条第二款的规定；三是2023年天津证监局现 场检查期间，向天津证监局提供的现场检查材料不完整，违反了《期货公司监督管理办法》第五十六条、第一百条第二款的规定。 上述情形表明永安期货股份有限公司天津分公司内部控制存在缺陷，根据《期货公司监督管理办法》第一百零九条的规定，天津证监局决定对永安期货 股份有限公司天津分公司采取出具警示函的监督管理措施，并记入证券期货市场诚信档案。 永安期货于2021年12月23日在上交所主板上市，公开发行新股1.46亿股，发行价格为17.97元/股，保荐机构为中信建投证券股份有限公司、财通证券股 份有限公司。其中，中信建投证券股份有限公司的保荐代表人为李华筠、周伟，财通证券股份有限公司的保荐代表人为吴云建、熊文峰。 永安期货于202 ...