Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.Over the past month, shares of this real estate investment trust have returned -0.3%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.7% change. During this period, the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry, which Arbor Realty Trust falls in, has gained 9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future dir ...

UNIONDALE, N.Y., Feb. 12, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ABR), today announced that it is scheduled to release fourth quarter 2024 financial results before the market opens on Friday, February 21, 2025. The Company will host a conference call to review the results at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on February 21, 2025. A live webcast and replay of the conference call will be available at www.arbor.com in the investor relations section of the Company’s website. Those without web access sho ...

Group 1 - Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) closed at $13.73, reflecting a +1.7% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.72% [1] - Over the past month, Arbor Realty Trust shares experienced a loss of 1.89%, underperforming compared to the Finance sector's gain of 3.24% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.02% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated, with a forecasted EPS of $0.41, representing a 19.61% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to be $260.98 million, indicating a 21.17% decline from the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Group 3 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Arbor Realty Trust reflect shifting short-term business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, suggests a viable rating system for assessing stock performance [4] Group 4 - The Zacks Rank system ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), with Arbor Realty Trust currently holding a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 0.16% in the past month [5] Group 5 - Arbor Realty Trust is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.28, slightly below the industry average of 8.29, indicating a discount relative to its peers [6] - The REIT and Equity Trust industry is part of the Finance sector, currently holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 140, placing it in the bottom 45% of over 250 industries [6] Group 6 - The Zacks Industry Rank is based on the average Zacks Rank of individual companies, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Investment Group Overview - The investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital is led by Brad and HOYA Capital, covering REITs, BDCs, MLPs, Preferreds, and other income-oriented alternatives [1] - The team of analysts has a combined 100+ years of experience, including a former hedge fund manager, due diligence officer, portfolio manager, PhD, military veteran, and advisor to a former U S President [1] Brad Thomas' Background - Brad Thomas has over 30 years of real estate investing experience and has acquired, developed, or brokered over $1B in commercial real estate transactions [2] - He has been featured in Barron's, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and other media outlets, and is the author of four books, including "REITs For Dummies" [2] Disclosure and Author's Note - The author holds a beneficial long position in shares of ABR, NLCP, and IRET through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [3] - The article is written and distributed to assist in research and provide a forum for second-level thinking, with no compensation received other than from Seeking Alpha [4]

Company Performance - Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) closed at $13.16, reflecting a +1.39% increase compared to the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.16% [1] - Over the last month, Arbor Realty Trust's shares have decreased by 10.17%, underperforming the Finance sector's loss of 5.04% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.2% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings release for Arbor Realty Trust is anticipated to show an EPS of $0.41, representing a 19.61% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to be $260.98 million, indicating a 21.17% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Arbor Realty Trust reflect shifting short-term business dynamics, with upward revisions indicating analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Arbor Realty Trust currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with a Forward P/E ratio of 7.95, which is a premium compared to the industry's average Forward P/E of 7.8 [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained stagnant over the past month [5] Industry Overview - The REIT and Equity Trust industry is part of the Finance sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 51, placing it in the top 21% of over 250 industries [6] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Stock Performance - Arbor Realty Trust closed at $13 70, up 0 29% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 1 07%, the Dow's drop of 0 97%, and the Nasdaq's decrease of 1 19% [1] - Shares of the company lost 6 88% over the previous month, underperforming the Finance sector's loss of 4 94% and the S&P 500's loss of 0 36% [7] Financial Estimates - Full-year earnings are projected at $1 78 per share, a 20 89% decline from the prior year, while revenue is estimated at $1 17 billion, down 12 41% [2] - The upcoming quarter is expected to report an EPS of $0 41, a 19 61% decrease, and revenue of $260 98 million, a 21 17% decline compared to the same quarter last year [4] Valuation and Industry Ranking - Arbor Realty Trust has a Forward P/E ratio of 7 7, below the industry average of 8 93 [3] - The REIT and Equity Trust industry ranks 130 out of over 250 industries, placing it in the bottom 49% [6] Analyst Revisions and Zacks Rank - Analyst estimate revisions reflect short-term business trends and can influence stock price performance [5][8] - The Zacks Industry Rank shows that top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [9] - Arbor Realty Trust currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS projection remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [10]

Portfolio and Community Overview - The company offers access to its entire Portfolio and current Top Picks through a 2-week free trial at High Yield Landlord [1] - The company is the largest real estate investment community on Seeking Alpha with over 2,000 members and a perfect 5/5 rating from 400+ reviews [1] - A limited-time offer allows new members to join at a deeply reduced rate [1]

Core Insights - Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) has experienced a significant increase in non-performing loans (NPLs), rising from under $3 million to $465 million within a single year, indicating a challenging financial environment for the company [1]. Company Overview - The company is facing heightened concerns regarding its financial stability due to the dramatic rise in NPLs, which may impact its overall performance and investor confidence [1].

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings upgraded Arbor Realty Trust's commercial primary servicer rating from CPS2 to CPS2+ and affirmed its special servicer rating, maintaining a positive rating outlook [1][3][4] Group 1: Rating Upgrade and Outlook - Arbor's commercial primary servicer rating upgrade reflects the company's ongoing investments in personnel, processes, and technology improvements [2] - The positive rating outlook is supported by Arbor's high performance in servicing multifamily agency loans and its experienced staff [3][4] Group 2: Operational Strengths - Arbor's servicing division manages a multi-billion-dollar portfolio of multifamily and commercial real estate loans, demonstrating strong operational capabilities [6][7] - The company has implemented technology enhancements, including the deployment of an internally developed borrower portal named ALEX, to support servicing functions [3] Group 3: Comparison with Peers - Arbor is noted for its experienced employees, well-established policies, and sound management oversight, which positions it favorably compared to other Fitch-rated servicers [5]

Core Insights - The investment landscape for preferred securities is evolving, with some securities showing potential for capital appreciation and others offering high current yields [1][2] Changes in Fixed-Income Environment - The yield curve is uninverting, and the Fed Funds rate has been cut by 75 basis points, with expectations for further cuts [3] - Many formerly fixed-rate preferreds are transitioning to floating rates, impacting their yield profiles [3][4] - The perceived neutral Fed Funds rate has increased to a range of 3%-3.5% from the previous 2%-2.5% [3] Performance of REIT Preferreds - REIT preferred prices, represented by the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA), have increased approximately 20% over the past year [5] - Many previously identified REIT preferreds with substantial upside now have a flatter outlook, trading around their par value of $25 [6][5] Specific Investment Opportunities - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) has preferred shares that remain deeply discounted, with potential for higher yields if they convert to floating rates [9][11] - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) offers discounted preferreds with solid current yields and capital appreciation potential, particularly ABR-F, which has a significant spread over SOFR [13][15][17] - Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM) preferreds have a liquidation preference that exceeds their par value due to accrued dividends, making them potentially profitable even if redeemed [21][23] Mispricing and Yield Opportunities - The market has overlooked many REIT preferreds, leading to mispricing and opportunities for yields exceeding 10% without excessive risk [27][28] - The variable rate conversion features of these preferreds are often misunderstood, creating entry points that may correct toward fair value as conversion dates approach [27]