Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, representing a margin of 25% [6][19] - EBITDA fell slightly below guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and third-party trucking bonuses, reducing Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million [19][22] - Net income was $1.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.01 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $139.7 million, logistics operations contributed $150.6 million, and power rentals added $7.3 million [20] - Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions, while Encore volumes were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4 [20] - Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company entered 2025 with a strong allocation base of approximately 22 million tons, with 3 million tons of potential upside pending [23][86] - The WTI forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April, influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems and launched commercial operations for the Dune Express, positioning itself for long-term growth [6][12] - The Dune Express is expected to enhance logistics margins and provide a long-term infrastructure advantage [11][12] - The company is focused on operational excellence, emphasizing people, processes, and technology to drive performance [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current uncertainty in the oilfield sector, emphasizing a position of strength rather than weakness [8][12] - The company anticipates that while short-term uncertainty remains, its long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity and operational discipline [12][26] - Management noted that economic and commodity price uncertainty is prompting caution among customers, with several Q2 development plans deferred to the second half of 2025 [22][86] Other Important Information - The company expects Q2 service margins to surpass 20% as the benefits of the Dune Express begin to materialize [19] - Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx, with a budget of $115 million for 2025 [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide additional color on your guidance of flat to up sequentially? - Management indicated that there is currently no near-term upside in the market, with operators adopting a wait-and-see attitude [30][31] Question: What is the confidence level around the 22 million tons committed this year? - Management remains confident in the demand for the 22 million tons allocated, supported by strong fundamentals and commitments from large-cap operators [34][35] Question: Can you discuss the ramp-up of the Dune Express and its near-term earnings power? - Management noted that the Dune Express is in the commissioning phase, and while Q1 contributions were modest, they expect margins to expand as operations normalize [42][48] Question: How are deferred volumes impacting your outlook? - Deferred volumes are primarily driven by macro uncertainty, with operators hesitant to commit to new projects until they have more clarity [71][82] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow moving forward? - Management expects improved working capital efficiency and cash flow generation as the year progresses, with Q1 being the largest spending quarter [52][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, Atlas reported revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, representing a margin of 25% [5][18] - EBITDA fell slightly below guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and third-party trucking bonuses, reducing Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million [18] - Net income was $1.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.01 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $139.7 million, logistics operations contributed $150.6 million, and power rentals added $7.3 million [19] - Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions, while Encore volumes were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4 [19] - Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups, with an average price of $22.51 per ton excluding this [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - WTI's forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April, influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity [6] - Atlas entered 2025 with a strong allocation base of approximately 22 million tons and continues to bid on meaningful new tenders [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Atlas aims to navigate the current oilfield sector uncertainty by controlling costs, prioritizing capital discipline, and innovating with purpose [7] - The Dune Express is expected to provide long-term infrastructure advantages and is entering a critical phase with stabilizing volumes [11] - The integration of Mosier Energy Systems is progressing well, with positive customer feedback and new business models being explored [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in Atlas's ability to perform through cycles, emphasizing structural advantages that enable healthy free cash flow even in weak markets [10] - Short-term uncertainty remains, but the long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity and operational discipline [12] - Management noted that while some customers are pausing growth plans, they expect activity to resume as visibility improves [10] Other Important Information - Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx and $15.5 million in maintenance CapEx [21] - The company expects a sequential decline in CapEx in Q2, budgeting $115 million in total CapEx for 2025 with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide additional color on your guidance of flat to up sequentially? - Management indicated that they do not see near-term upside in the market, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing among operators [28] Question: What is the confidence level around the 22 million tons committed this year? - Management remains confident in the demand for the 22 million tons allocated, supported by strong fundamentals and commitments from large-cap operators [34] Question: Can you elaborate on the ramp-up of the Dune Express? - The Dune Express is progressing well, with stable operations and consistent throughput expected to lead to margin expansion as operations normalize [44] Question: How should we think about the free cash flow profile moving forward? - Management noted that Q1 was the largest spending quarter for CapEx, with expectations for improved working capital efficiency and cash flow generation as the year progresses [50] Question: What is the outlook for sand pricing and supply impacts? - Management observed that supply capacity additions have peaked, with some competitors reducing production, which is seen as constructive for the industry [62]

Core Insights - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) reported quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18 per share, and down from $0.34 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -55.56% [1] - The company posted revenues of $297.59 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.53%, and up from $192.67 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 34.8% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of -3.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.33 on revenues of $333.25 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.28 on revenues of $1.3 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is currently in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% of industries [8] - Another company in the same industry, Berry Petroleum, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -28.6% [9]

Investor Presentation May 2025 This Presentation contains "forward-looking statements" of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ("Atlas," the "Company," "AESI," "we," "us" or "our") within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"). Statements that are predictive or prospective in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events or conditions or that include the words "may," "ass ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $297.6 million, a 9.7% increase from Q4 2024[7] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1.2 million, with a net income margin of 0%[6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $74.3 million, representing a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin[6] - Sales volumes increased to 5.7 million tons, an 11.8% increase compared to Q4 2024[7] - The cost of sales for Q1 2025 was $206.1 million, a 7.9% increase from Q4 2024[8] - SG&A expenses rose to $34.4 million, a 34.9% increase compared to Q4 2024, primarily due to acquisition-related costs[9] - Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $1,219 thousand, a significant decrease from $26,787 thousand in the previous quarter and $14,402 thousand in the same period last year[24] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was $74,291 thousand, slightly down from $75,543 thousand in the previous quarter but up from $63,236 thousand year-over-year[30] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow was reported at $58,758 thousand, compared to $71,083 thousand in the previous quarter and $47,934 thousand in the same period last year[31] - The Adjusted EBITDA Margin for the quarter was 25%, down from 39% in the previous quarter[31] Assets and Liquidity - Total current assets increased to $376,374 thousand as of March 31, 2025, up from $289,418 thousand a year earlier, driven by a rise in accounts receivable[26] - Total assets reached $2,294,780 thousand, compared to $1,972,652 thousand as of December 31, 2024, reflecting growth in property, plant, and equipment[26] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $68,674 thousand from $71,704 thousand at the end of the previous quarter[26] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $193.5 million, including $68.7 million in cash[10] Cash Flow and Expenditures - The company reported a net cash used in operating activities of $(7,450) thousand for the quarter, a decline from $39,562 thousand in the previous quarter[31] - Maintenance Capital Expenditures for the quarter were $15,533 thousand, up from $4,460 thousand in the previous quarter[33] - The company raised $253,070 thousand from equity offerings during the quarter, contributing to a net cash provided by financing activities of $232,922 thousand[24] Tax and Interest Expenses - Current income tax expense for Q1 2025 is $914,000, compared to $414,000 in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant increase[35] - Net interest expense for Q1 2025 is $12,078,000, up from $4,978,000 in Q1 2024, indicating a substantial rise in financing costs[37] - Cash interest expense for Q1 2025 is $11,831,000, compared to $6,491,000 in Q1 2024, showing an increase of approximately 82% year-over-year[37] Future Outlook - The company expects sales volumes and adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat to up sequentially in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025[13] - The acquisition of Moser Energy Systems is anticipated to provide a platform for future growth and operational efficiencies[5]

Company Overview - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 47.1%, with projected earnings of $0.18 per share for the quarter ended March 2025 [3] - The company is anticipated to see a revenue increase of 52.1%, reaching $293.1 million compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for AESI is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +3.71%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AESI was expected to post earnings of $0.17 per share but only achieved $0.06, resulting in a surprise of -64.71% [12] - The company has not beaten consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters [13] Market Sentiment - The upcoming earnings report is crucial, as stock movement may depend on whether actual results exceed or fall short of expectations [2] - Despite a potential earnings beat, other factors may influence stock performance, indicating that an earnings surprise alone may not dictate market reaction [14][16] Industry Context - In the broader context, National Fuel Gas (NFG), a peer in the Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, is expected to post earnings of $2.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.2% [17] - NFG's revenue is projected to rise by 24.3% to $783.13 million, with a recent EPS estimate revision of 4.1% higher [18]

Acquisition and Integration Risks - The company is currently facing uncertainties regarding the anticipated benefits and projected synergies from the Moser Acquisition, which may not be realized within the expected timeframe or at all [14]. - The company is subject to risks related to the integration of Moser's business, which may not yield the expected benefits [26]. - The company’s ability to maintain financial flexibility may be limited due to existing and future debt following the Moser Acquisition [14]. Customer Base and Quality - The company had 49 customers in 2024, with 10 classified as investment grade, compared to 33 customers and 6 investment grade in 2023, indicating a significant increase in customer base quality [486]. Commodity Price Exposure - The company does not currently intend to hedge its indirect exposure to commodity price risk, which is influenced by fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices [481]. - The company is exposed to volatility in natural gas prices, which are critical for its proppant manufacturing operations, and has not entered into any commodity derivative contracts for 2023 and 2024 [482]. - The company’s operational performance may be adversely affected by a material decline in oil and natural gas prices or activity levels in the Permian Basin [485]. Operational Challenges - The company is focused on improving its production facilities following a fire incident at the Kermit facility on April 14, 2024, which may impact future performance [14]. - The company is facing risks related to environmental regulations and operational disruptions that could affect its business operations [19]. Inflation Impact - Inflationary factors may adversely affect the company's results of operations due to increased product and overhead costs [487]. - The company does not believe inflation has materially impacted its financial position or results of operations to date [487]. - A high rate of inflation in the future may negatively affect the company's ability to maintain current gross margin levels [487]. - Selling prices of the company's products may need to increase to keep pace with rising costs [487]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of net revenue may be impacted by inflation [487]. Debt and Financial Flexibility - As of December 31, 2024, the company had $70.0 million of debt outstanding under the 2023 ABL Credit Facility, with a potential annual interest expense fluctuation of approximately $0.4 million for a hypothetical 1.0% change in interest rates [483].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company's adjusted EBITDA was $288.9 million or 27% of revenue [29] - Fourth quarter reported total sales of $271.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $63.2 million or 23.3% of revenue [29] - Net income was $14.4 million or 5.3% of revenue, with earnings per share at $0.13 [35] - Adjusted free cash flow was $47.9 million or 17.7% of revenue [35] - CapEx during the quarter was $50 million, with maintenance CapEx at $15.3 million [36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from proppant sales was $128.4 million, with total profit sales volumes per quarter declining to 5.1 million tons due to seasonal slowdown [30] - Average revenue per ton for the quarter was $25.31, adjusted to $23.28 per ton when accounting for contractual payments [31] - Logistics revenue for the year was $140.5 million [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Spot sand prices fell to cyclical lows during the fourth quarter due to reduced customer demand and aggressive pricing from competitors [18] - The company expects a gradual return to normalcy in sand pricing, with expectations for a return to mid-teen levels [21][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to ramp up volumes and achieve full effective utilization of the Dune Express by midyear [8] - The acquisition of Mosier Energy Systems is seen as a platform investment into the distributed power market, with plans to grow its fleet from 212 megawatts to approximately 310 megawatts by the end of 2026 [15][16] - The company is focused on shareholder returns, having increased its quarterly dividend by 4% [13][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about a gradual recovery in the Permian profit market and rational pricing behavior among competitors [20][21] - The company expects Q1 volumes to be up 10% to 15% sequentially and anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q1 to be between $75 million and $85 million [41] - Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA is expected to reflect the contribution from the Mosier acquisition [42] Other Important Information - The company has paid out $252 million in total dividends and distributions since inception [53] - The Dune Express is described as the world's first commercial driverless delivery operation, enhancing logistics efficiency [10][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to the volume moved down the Dune Express and gating factors for full utilization? - The company is currently running at 50% to 60% of capacity and expects to reach full utilization by midyear, with some planned downtime for optimization [60][62] Question: How are you balancing growth opportunities with returning cash to shareholders? - The company aims to maintain a stable dividend while pursuing high-return growth projects, with a focus on optimizing cash flow [66][68] Question: Can you discuss plans for the Mosier acquisition and future power generation? - The Mosier acquisition is viewed as a platform for growth in the power business, with potential for rapid expansion based on customer demand [75][76] Question: What are the cost savings of using autonomous trucks versus regular trucks? - The company noted that labor constitutes about 70-80% of truck operating costs, indicating significant potential savings with autonomous trucks [82] Question: What is the current contract coverage for the year? - The company has approximately 22 million tons contracted for 2025, with expectations for this number to increase [117] Question: Are you seeing interest from customers for longer-term contracts? - There is a trend towards longer-term contracts, which may have lower pricing but provide volume stability [120]

Core Viewpoint - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.17 per share, and down from $0.37 per share a year ago, indicating a significant earnings surprise of -64.71% [1] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $271.34 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.11%, and showing a substantial increase from year-ago revenues of $141.14 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Atlas Energy Solutions has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates, with the most recent quarter also reflecting a decline in earnings expectations [2][6] Stock Performance - Atlas Energy Solutions shares have lost about 7% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 2.2%, indicating underperformance in the market [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 5 (Strong Sell), suggesting that shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.26 on revenues of $298.98 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.50 on revenues of $1.27 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Atlas Energy Solutions has been unfavorable ahead of the earnings release, which may impact future stock performance [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is currently in the top 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Acquisition Details - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. announced a definitive agreement to acquire Moser Energy Systems for a total transaction value of $220 million, consisting of $180 million in cash and approximately 1.7 million shares valued at $40 million[1][2]. - The acquisition is anticipated to be immediately accretive and is expected to close by the end of Q1 2025, pending customary closing conditions[4][7]. - Moser Energy Systems has a strong EBITDA margin profile of over 50%, which is expected to enhance Atlas's cash flow generation and shareholder returns[4]. - The company is in the process of completing the Moser Acquisition, which is subject to various risks and uncertainties[27]. - The company anticipates potential synergies from the Moser Acquisition, but the realization of these benefits is uncertain[27]. Financial Projections - For Q4 2024, estimated revenue is projected to be between $270.0 million and $272.0 million, representing an increase of approximately 92% compared to Q4 2023 revenue of $141.1 million[11]. - Estimated Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 is expected to be between $62.2 million and $64.2 million, a decrease of approximately 8% from Q4 2023 Adjusted EBITDA of $68.7 million[12]. - For the fiscal year 2024, revenue is expected to be between $1,055.0 million and $1,057.0 million, an increase of approximately 72% compared to $614.0 million in fiscal year 2023[19]. - Estimated Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to be between $287.9 million and $289.9 million, a decrease of approximately 12% from $329.7 million in fiscal year 2023[19]. - Full Year 2023 Net Income was $226,493,000, with an estimated range for Full Year 2024 between $58,392,000 and $59,792,000[30]. - Full Year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA was $329,655,000, with an estimated range for Full Year 2024 between $287,866,000 and $289,866,000[30]. Cash Flow and Income - Cash and cash equivalents are expected to total approximately $71.7 million, a decrease of approximately 66% from $210.2 million at the end of fiscal year 2023[19]. - Net Income for Q4 2023 was $36,050,000, with an estimated range for Q4 2024 between $12,850,000 and $14,250,000[30]. - EBITDA for Q4 2023 was $64,057,000, with an estimated range for Q4 2024 between $64,928,000 and $67,328,000[30]. - EBITDA for Full Year 2023 was $316,957,000, with an estimated range for Full Year 2024 between $232,145,000 and $234,545,000[30]. Operational Strategies - Atlas continues to invest in technologies such as autonomous trucking and artificial intelligence to improve operational efficiencies and reduce costs[20]. Risks and Uncertainties - The company is facing risks related to commodity price volatility, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East[27]. - The company has outlined a stock repurchase program, but the successful execution of this program is uncertain[27].