Core Viewpoint - The article discusses potential investment opportunities in cheap dividend-paying stocks that yield between 5.3% and 7.6%, despite the broader market recovery. It highlights five specific companies that remain undervalued and offers insights into their financial metrics and challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Company Summaries - **Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)**: A $90 billion pharmaceutical company with a low PEG of 0.12 and a cash-flow multiple of 7. It has a dividend yield of over 5% but faces profitability concerns due to competition affecting core drugs, leading to a 44% revenue drop for Revlimid in Q1 [3][5][6]. - **HF Sinclair (DINO)**: Formed from a merger, it operates seven U.S. refineries and has a crude oil processing capacity of 678,000 barrels per day. The stock has a PEG of 0.2 and a P/CF of 7.3, reflecting a more than 30% drop over the past year, primarily due to industry-wide challenges [7][10]. - **AES Corp. (AES)**: A utility company serving 2.7 million customers with a diverse energy portfolio. It has a PEG of 0.8 and a forward P/CF of 5, but has seen its stock lose over half its value in 2023 due to aggressive transitions to renewables and project delays [13][14][15]. - **Polaris (PII)**: A manufacturer of recreational vehicles, its stock has dropped over 70% since July 2023, resulting in a high dividend yield. The company has faced declining demand and significant revenue and profit drops, with a PEG of negative 1.6 [17][18][20]. - **Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)**: An energy equipment and services company that has been increasing its dividends since its IPO in March 2023. It has a PEG of 0.2 and a forward P/CF of 5.5, but faces challenges due to fluctuating oil prices affecting demand [21][22][23]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - **Valuation Metrics**: All highlighted companies have a PEG below 1, indicating they are undervalued. The article emphasizes the importance of PEG and P/CF ratios in assessing investment opportunities [8][10]. - **Dividend Coverage**: Companies like DINO and AES have strong dividend coverage ratios, with DINO expected to have a coverage of 180% due to anticipated earnings growth in 2026 [12][16]. - **Market Challenges**: Each company faces unique challenges, such as competition, industry weakness, and fluctuating demand, which have impacted their stock performance and profitability [4][5][10][18].

Market Overview - As of mid-May 2025, the S&P 500 has turned positive year-to-date for the first time in many weeks, indicating a broad recovery across multiple sectors from previous volatility [1][2] - Despite the market improvement, ongoing trade disputes and the Trump administration's tariff policies remain a concern [2] Cogent Communications - Cogent Communications is currently trading at $50.87, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $75.75, indicating a potential upside of 48.91% based on 8 analyst ratings [5][8] - The company has seen a significant drop in share price since February, nearing a one-year low, but has strong growth potential in wavelength services, which have more than doubled in revenue over two years [6][7] - Cogent expects to capture a quarter of the North American wavelength market in the next three years, with current revenue in this category at $7.1 million [7] Regeneron Pharmaceuticals - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is trading at $571.36, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $890.60, suggesting a potential upside of 55.87% based on 26 analyst ratings [9][10] - The company has experienced a 20% decline year-to-date and a 42% drop over the last 12 months, reaching a multi-year low [10] - Regeneron benefits from a robust pipeline and recent sales growth, achieving $14 billion in sales in 2024, up from over $13 billion the previous year [11] - The company has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and initiated dividend payments in February 2025, enhancing its appeal to investors [13] Atlas Energy Solutions - Atlas Energy Solutions is currently priced at $13.23, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $19.81, indicating a potential upside of 49.75% based on 12 analyst ratings [14][16] - The company has faced a 42% decline year-to-date amid broader energy sector turmoil but benefits from a specialized focus with little competition [14][15] - Atlas Energy's operations in the Permian Basin provide a geographic advantage, helping to reduce costs and streamline logistics [15]

Acquisitions and Mergers - The Company completed the Moser Acquisition on February 24, 2025, for a total consideration of $180.0 million in cash and approximately 1.7 million shares of common stock [222]. - The Moser Acquisition is subject to customary post-closing adjustments, and the Moser Stock Consideration is redeemable by the Company within 90 days of closing [222]. - The company completed the Moser Acquisition on February 24, 2025, for $180 million, impacting operational results [265]. Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 2025 decreased to $1.2 million from $26.8 million in Q1 2024, representing a decline of 95.5% [258]. - Total revenue increased to $297.6 million in Q1 2025, up from $192.7 million in Q1 2024, marking a growth of 54.4% [267]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $74.3 million, slightly down from $75.5 million in Q1 2024, a decrease of 1.6% [258]. - Service revenue surged to $150.6 million in Q1 2025, a 90.5% increase from $79.2 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher logistics sales volumes [269]. - Product revenue rose by $26.2 million to $139.6 million in Q1 2025, despite a $36.8 million decrease due to lower proppant prices [268]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $54.5 million, down from $68.7 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 20.7% [267]. - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q1 2025 was $58.8 million, compared to $71.1 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 17.3% [258]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures for Q1 2025 were $52.4 million, down from $95.5 million in Q1 2024, a reduction of 45.1% [259]. - The Company has plans for future capital expenditures and expansion projects, which may be impacted by various risk factors [215]. Debt and Financing - The Second Term Loan Amendment increased the existing DDT Loan by $100.0 million to a total of $200.0 million, with an interest rate of 5.95% plus the greater of Term SOFR or 4.30% [227]. - Atlas LLC entered into a 2025 Term Loan Credit Agreement with Stonebriar, borrowing $540.0 million on February 21, 2025 [231]. - The 2025 Term Loan Credit Facility has a final maturity date of March 1, 2032, and bears interest at a rate of 9.51% per annum [233]. - Total debt increased to $527.2 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $481.3 million a year earlier, an increase of 9.5% [262]. - The Company drew down $20.0 million from the DDT Loan, with an interest rate of 10.58%, payable in 69 monthly installments starting December 1, 2024 [305]. - The ADDT Loan was provided with an additional principal amount of $150.0 million at an interest rate of 10.86%, payable in 76 monthly installments of $2.7 million starting April 1, 2024 [312]. - The 2023 ABL Credit Facility provides revolving credit financing of up to $75.0 million, with a maturity date of February 22, 2028 [316]. - The Borrowing Base was initially set at $75.0 million and increased to $125.0 million following the First Amendment to the 2023 ABL Credit Agreement [319]. - The Company used a portion of the proceeds from the Equity Offering to repay the remaining $70.0 million of the outstanding principal balance of the 2023 ABL Credit Facility in February 2025 [341]. Market Conditions and Risks - The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased by approximately 16% to $68.24 per barrel in Q1 2025 compared to $81.28 per barrel in Q1 2024 [242]. - The U.S. government imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on product imports, potentially increasing raw material input costs [243]. - The Company is subject to various market risks, including interest rate risks and commodity pricing risks, with no material changes in risk exposure since December 31, 2024 [340]. Operational Highlights - The Company operates a differentiated logistics platform, including the Dune Express, aimed at enhancing efficiency and sustainability in the oil and gas industry [220]. - The Company has over 950 natural gas-powered generators, providing approximately 225 megawatts of power generation capacity across major U.S. resource basins [221]. - The Company is integrating autonomous driving technologies into its logistics operations, creating a semi-autonomous oilfield logistics network [220]. - All of the Company's sand reserves are located in Texas within the Permian Basin, focusing on high-quality proppant production [219]. - The Company is focused on maintaining market-leading uptime for its power generation fleet through in-house manufacturing and remanufacturing capabilities [221]. Shareholder Returns - The company declared a dividend of $0.25 per share of Common Stock on February 11, 2025, and another $0.25 per share on May 2, 2025 [241].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, representing a margin of 25% [6][19] - EBITDA fell slightly below guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and third-party trucking bonuses, reducing Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million [19][22] - Net income was $1.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.01 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $139.7 million, logistics operations contributed $150.6 million, and power rentals added $7.3 million [20] - Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions, while Encore volumes were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4 [20] - Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company entered 2025 with a strong allocation base of approximately 22 million tons, with 3 million tons of potential upside pending [23][86] - The WTI forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April, influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems and launched commercial operations for the Dune Express, positioning itself for long-term growth [6][12] - The Dune Express is expected to enhance logistics margins and provide a long-term infrastructure advantage [11][12] - The company is focused on operational excellence, emphasizing people, processes, and technology to drive performance [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current uncertainty in the oilfield sector, emphasizing a position of strength rather than weakness [8][12] - The company anticipates that while short-term uncertainty remains, its long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity and operational discipline [12][26] - Management noted that economic and commodity price uncertainty is prompting caution among customers, with several Q2 development plans deferred to the second half of 2025 [22][86] Other Important Information - The company expects Q2 service margins to surpass 20% as the benefits of the Dune Express begin to materialize [19] - Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx, with a budget of $115 million for 2025 [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide additional color on your guidance of flat to up sequentially? - Management indicated that there is currently no near-term upside in the market, with operators adopting a wait-and-see attitude [30][31] Question: What is the confidence level around the 22 million tons committed this year? - Management remains confident in the demand for the 22 million tons allocated, supported by strong fundamentals and commitments from large-cap operators [34][35] Question: Can you discuss the ramp-up of the Dune Express and its near-term earnings power? - Management noted that the Dune Express is in the commissioning phase, and while Q1 contributions were modest, they expect margins to expand as operations normalize [42][48] Question: How are deferred volumes impacting your outlook? - Deferred volumes are primarily driven by macro uncertainty, with operators hesitant to commit to new projects until they have more clarity [71][82] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow moving forward? - Management expects improved working capital efficiency and cash flow generation as the year progresses, with Q1 being the largest spending quarter [52][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, Atlas reported revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, representing a margin of 25% [5][18] - EBITDA fell slightly below guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and third-party trucking bonuses, reducing Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million [18] - Net income was $1.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.01 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $139.7 million, logistics operations contributed $150.6 million, and power rentals added $7.3 million [19] - Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions, while Encore volumes were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4 [19] - Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups, with an average price of $22.51 per ton excluding this [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - WTI's forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April, influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity [6] - Atlas entered 2025 with a strong allocation base of approximately 22 million tons and continues to bid on meaningful new tenders [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Atlas aims to navigate the current oilfield sector uncertainty by controlling costs, prioritizing capital discipline, and innovating with purpose [7] - The Dune Express is expected to provide long-term infrastructure advantages and is entering a critical phase with stabilizing volumes [11] - The integration of Mosier Energy Systems is progressing well, with positive customer feedback and new business models being explored [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in Atlas's ability to perform through cycles, emphasizing structural advantages that enable healthy free cash flow even in weak markets [10] - Short-term uncertainty remains, but the long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity and operational discipline [12] - Management noted that while some customers are pausing growth plans, they expect activity to resume as visibility improves [10] Other Important Information - Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx and $15.5 million in maintenance CapEx [21] - The company expects a sequential decline in CapEx in Q2, budgeting $115 million in total CapEx for 2025 with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide additional color on your guidance of flat to up sequentially? - Management indicated that they do not see near-term upside in the market, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing among operators [28] Question: What is the confidence level around the 22 million tons committed this year? - Management remains confident in the demand for the 22 million tons allocated, supported by strong fundamentals and commitments from large-cap operators [34] Question: Can you elaborate on the ramp-up of the Dune Express? - The Dune Express is progressing well, with stable operations and consistent throughput expected to lead to margin expansion as operations normalize [44] Question: How should we think about the free cash flow profile moving forward? - Management noted that Q1 was the largest spending quarter for CapEx, with expectations for improved working capital efficiency and cash flow generation as the year progresses [50] Question: What is the outlook for sand pricing and supply impacts? - Management observed that supply capacity additions have peaked, with some competitors reducing production, which is seen as constructive for the industry [62]

Core Insights - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) reported quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18 per share, and down from $0.34 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -55.56% [1] - The company posted revenues of $297.59 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.53%, and up from $192.67 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 34.8% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of -3.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.33 on revenues of $333.25 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.28 on revenues of $1.3 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is currently in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% of industries [8] - Another company in the same industry, Berry Petroleum, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -28.6% [9]

Investor Presentation May 2025 This Presentation contains "forward-looking statements" of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ("Atlas," the "Company," "AESI," "we," "us" or "our") within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"). Statements that are predictive or prospective in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events or conditions or that include the words "may," "ass ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $297.6 million, a 9.7% increase from Q4 2024[7] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1.2 million, with a net income margin of 0%[6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $74.3 million, representing a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin[6] - Sales volumes increased to 5.7 million tons, an 11.8% increase compared to Q4 2024[7] - The cost of sales for Q1 2025 was $206.1 million, a 7.9% increase from Q4 2024[8] - SG&A expenses rose to $34.4 million, a 34.9% increase compared to Q4 2024, primarily due to acquisition-related costs[9] - Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $1,219 thousand, a significant decrease from $26,787 thousand in the previous quarter and $14,402 thousand in the same period last year[24] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was $74,291 thousand, slightly down from $75,543 thousand in the previous quarter but up from $63,236 thousand year-over-year[30] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow was reported at $58,758 thousand, compared to $71,083 thousand in the previous quarter and $47,934 thousand in the same period last year[31] - The Adjusted EBITDA Margin for the quarter was 25%, down from 39% in the previous quarter[31] Assets and Liquidity - Total current assets increased to $376,374 thousand as of March 31, 2025, up from $289,418 thousand a year earlier, driven by a rise in accounts receivable[26] - Total assets reached $2,294,780 thousand, compared to $1,972,652 thousand as of December 31, 2024, reflecting growth in property, plant, and equipment[26] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $68,674 thousand from $71,704 thousand at the end of the previous quarter[26] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $193.5 million, including $68.7 million in cash[10] Cash Flow and Expenditures - The company reported a net cash used in operating activities of $(7,450) thousand for the quarter, a decline from $39,562 thousand in the previous quarter[31] - Maintenance Capital Expenditures for the quarter were $15,533 thousand, up from $4,460 thousand in the previous quarter[33] - The company raised $253,070 thousand from equity offerings during the quarter, contributing to a net cash provided by financing activities of $232,922 thousand[24] Tax and Interest Expenses - Current income tax expense for Q1 2025 is $914,000, compared to $414,000 in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant increase[35] - Net interest expense for Q1 2025 is $12,078,000, up from $4,978,000 in Q1 2024, indicating a substantial rise in financing costs[37] - Cash interest expense for Q1 2025 is $11,831,000, compared to $6,491,000 in Q1 2024, showing an increase of approximately 82% year-over-year[37] Future Outlook - The company expects sales volumes and adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat to up sequentially in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025[13] - The acquisition of Moser Energy Systems is anticipated to provide a platform for future growth and operational efficiencies[5]

Company Overview - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 47.1%, with projected earnings of $0.18 per share for the quarter ended March 2025 [3] - The company is anticipated to see a revenue increase of 52.1%, reaching $293.1 million compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for AESI is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +3.71%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AESI was expected to post earnings of $0.17 per share but only achieved $0.06, resulting in a surprise of -64.71% [12] - The company has not beaten consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters [13] Market Sentiment - The upcoming earnings report is crucial, as stock movement may depend on whether actual results exceed or fall short of expectations [2] - Despite a potential earnings beat, other factors may influence stock performance, indicating that an earnings surprise alone may not dictate market reaction [14][16] Industry Context - In the broader context, National Fuel Gas (NFG), a peer in the Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, is expected to post earnings of $2.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.2% [17] - NFG's revenue is projected to rise by 24.3% to $783.13 million, with a recent EPS estimate revision of 4.1% higher [18]

Acquisition and Integration Risks - The company is currently facing uncertainties regarding the anticipated benefits and projected synergies from the Moser Acquisition, which may not be realized within the expected timeframe or at all [14]. - The company is subject to risks related to the integration of Moser's business, which may not yield the expected benefits [26]. - The company’s ability to maintain financial flexibility may be limited due to existing and future debt following the Moser Acquisition [14]. Customer Base and Quality - The company had 49 customers in 2024, with 10 classified as investment grade, compared to 33 customers and 6 investment grade in 2023, indicating a significant increase in customer base quality [486]. Commodity Price Exposure - The company does not currently intend to hedge its indirect exposure to commodity price risk, which is influenced by fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices [481]. - The company is exposed to volatility in natural gas prices, which are critical for its proppant manufacturing operations, and has not entered into any commodity derivative contracts for 2023 and 2024 [482]. - The company’s operational performance may be adversely affected by a material decline in oil and natural gas prices or activity levels in the Permian Basin [485]. Operational Challenges - The company is focused on improving its production facilities following a fire incident at the Kermit facility on April 14, 2024, which may impact future performance [14]. - The company is facing risks related to environmental regulations and operational disruptions that could affect its business operations [19]. Inflation Impact - Inflationary factors may adversely affect the company's results of operations due to increased product and overhead costs [487]. - The company does not believe inflation has materially impacted its financial position or results of operations to date [487]. - A high rate of inflation in the future may negatively affect the company's ability to maintain current gross margin levels [487]. - Selling prices of the company's products may need to increase to keep pace with rising costs [487]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of net revenue may be impacted by inflation [487]. Debt and Financial Flexibility - As of December 31, 2024, the company had $70.0 million of debt outstanding under the 2023 ABL Credit Facility, with a potential annual interest expense fluctuation of approximately $0.4 million for a hypothetical 1.0% change in interest rates [483].