Core Insights - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) reported revenue of $288.68 million for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.4% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $0, compared to $0.16 a year ago, indicating a significant decline [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $295.64 million by -2.35%, and the EPS missed the consensus estimate of $0.14 by -100% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Product revenue was reported at $126.33 million, slightly below the average estimate of $127.53 million, marking a year-over-year decline of -1.5% [4] - Rental revenue came in at $15.99 million, significantly lower than the estimated $18.86 million [4] - Service revenue was reported at $146.36 million, which was also below the estimated $146.76 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of -8.1% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. have returned -11.4%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +0.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported break-even quarterly earnings per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14, and showing a decline from $0.16 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -100.00% [1] - The company has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, with revenues of $288.68 million for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.35% [2] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $288.68 million for the quarter, slightly up from $287.52 million year-over-year [2] - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. shares have decreased by approximately 43.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 6.1% [3] Future Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.13 for the coming quarter and $0.42 for the current fiscal year, with revenues expected to be $288.89 million and $1.16 billion respectively [7] - The Zacks Rank for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is currently 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is currently ranked in the bottom 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment for companies within this sector [8]

[Second Quarter 2025 Results Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%202025%20Results%20Overview) [Financial & Operational Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20%26%20Operational%20Highlights) Atlas Energy Solutions reported Q2 2025 revenue of **$288.7 million**, a net loss of **$5.6 million**, and Adjusted EBITDA of **$70.5 million**, while generating **$48.9 million** in Adjusted Free Cash Flow Q2 2025 Financial Summary (vs. Q1 2025 & Q2 2024) | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Revenue** | $288.7M | $297.6M | $287.5M | | **Net Income (Loss)** | ($5.6M) | $1.2M | $14.8M | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $70.5M | $74.3M | $79.1M | | **Adjusted EBITDA Margin** | 24% | 25% | 28% | | **Net cash from operating activities** | $88.6M | ($7.5M) | $60.9M | | **Adjusted Free Cash Flow** | $48.9M | $58.8M | $73.7M | - Maintained a quarterly dividend of **$0.25 per share**, which is scheduled to be paid on August 21, 2025[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Subsequent to the end of the quarter, Atlas acquired PropFlow, a patented sand filtration system designed to remove debris from proppant at the wellsite[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Management Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=Management%20Commentary) CEO John Turner highlighted strong free cash flow despite a Permian Basin slowdown, noting the Power segment's first full-quarter contribution and Dune Express's full operation - Despite a slowdown in Permian Basin activity, the company delivered **strong free cash flow** in Q2 2025[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The new Power segment provided its first full quarter of contribution, with the company evaluating further opportunities in production support, micro-grids, and commercial applications[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The Dune Express is now fully operational, with a majority of sand deliveries from the Kermit plant occurring at the End of Line and State Line facilities[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The company expects a challenging completions market in West Texas for the second half of 2025 but is positioned to gain market share as the leading low-cost provider of proppant and logistics[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Second Quarter 2025 Financial Performance](index=1&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%202025%20Financial%20Performance) Total sales for Q2 2025 decreased 3.0% sequentially to **$288.7 million**, driven by declines in product and service sales, offset by a 119.2% surge in rental revenue Q2 2025 Revenue Breakdown (vs. Q1 2025) | Revenue Category | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Product Sales** | $126.3M | $139.6M | (9.6)% | | **Service Sales** | $146.4M | $150.6M | (2.8)% | | **Rental Revenue** | $16.0M | $7.3M | 119.2% | | **Total Sales** | **$288.7M** | **$297.6M** | **(3.0)%** | - Sales volumes decreased by approximately **4.0%** sequentially to **5.4 million tons** in the second quarter of 2025[7](index=7&type=chunk) - Cost of sales (excluding D&A) decreased by **4.9%** sequentially to **$195.9 million**, while SG&A expenses remained consistent at **$34.4 million**[9](index=9&type=chunk)[10](index=10&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Returns](index=2&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Returns) As of June 30, 2025, Atlas had total liquidity of **$203.6 million**, comprising cash and credit facility availability, and declared a **$0.25 per share** quarterly dividend - Total liquidity was **$203.6 million** as of June 30, 2025, which included **$78.8 million** in cash and cash equivalents and **$124.8 million** available under the 2023 ABL Credit Facility[11](index=11&type=chunk) - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of **$0.25 per common share**, totaling approximately **$30.9 million**, payable on August 21, 2025[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Business Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=Business%20Outlook) Management anticipates a modest decline in Q3 2025 consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by lower average proppant sales prices and reduced shortfall payments - Guidance for Q3 2025 indicates an expected **modest decline** in consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA[14](index=14&type=chunk) - The decline is anticipated as a sequential increase in proppant sales volume and Power segment contribution will be offset by a decrease in average proppant sales prices and shortfall payments[14](index=14&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Income) The company reported a net loss of **$5.6 million** for Q2 2025, resulting in a diluted loss per share of **$0.04**, primarily due to lower gross profit and higher interest expense Selected Income Statement Data (in thousands, except per share data) | Account | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total revenue** | $288,676 | $297,591 | $287,518 | | **Gross profit** | $52,139 | $54,528 | $60,355 | | **Operating income** | $7,193 | $15,331 | $28,223 | | **Net income (loss)** | **($5,558)** | **$1,219** | **$14,837** | | **Diluted net income (loss) per share** | **($0.04)** | **$0.01** | **$0.13** | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=5&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) In Q2 2025, net cash provided by operating activities was **$88.6 million**, with **$40.3 million** used in investing and **$38.2 million** in financing activities, ending with **$78.8 million** cash Summary of Cash Flows (in thousands) | Activity | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities** | $88,642 | ($7,450) | $60,856 | | **Net cash used in investing activities** | ($40,268) | ($228,502) | ($115,790) | | **Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities** | ($38,239) | $232,922 | ($27,463) | | **Net increase (decrease) in cash** | $10,135 | ($3,030) | ($82,397) | | **Cash and cash equivalents, end of period** | **$78,809** | **$68,674** | **$104,723** | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of June 30, 2025, total assets increased to **$2.25 billion**, total liabilities rose to **$976.4 million**, and total stockholders' equity grew to **$1.27 billion** Selected Balance Sheet Data (in thousands) | Account | June 30, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total current assets** | $334,459 | $289,418 | | **Total assets** | **$2,247,775** | **$1,972,652** | | **Total current liabilities** | $214,748 | $243,065 | | **Total liabilities** | $976,443 | $936,096 | | **Total stockholders' equity** | **$1,271,332** | **$1,036,556** | [Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations](index=7&type=section&id=Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures%20and%20Reconciliations) [Explanation of Non-GAAP Measures](index=7&type=section&id=Explanation%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Measures) The company uses non-GAAP measures like Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow to assess core operating performance and cash generation, adjusting for non-recurring and non-cash items - Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income excluding depreciation, depletion and accretion, amortization, interest expense, income tax, stock-based compensation, and other specified non-recurring costs[29](index=29&type=chunk) - Adjusted Free Cash Flow is defined as Adjusted EBITDA less Maintenance Capital Expenditures and is used to measure the business's ability to generate cash[29](index=29&type=chunk) [Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow](index=8&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20Net%20Income%20to%20Adjusted%20EBITDA%20and%20Adjusted%20Free%20Cash%20Flow) For Q2 2025, Atlas reconciled its net loss of **$5.6 million** to an Adjusted EBITDA of **$70.5 million**, resulting in an Adjusted Free Cash Flow of **$48.9 million** after maintenance capital expenditures Q2 2025 Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Free Cash Flow (in thousands) | Line Item | Q2 2025 | | :--- | :--- | | **Net income (loss)** | **($5,558)** | | Depreciation, depletion and accretion | $41,717 | | Amortization of intangibles | $6,465 | | Interest expense | $14,955 | | Income tax benefit | ($1,677) | | Stock-based compensation | $8,290 | | Other non-recurring & acquisition costs | $6,267 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | **$70,459** | | Maintenance Capital Expenditures | ($21,589) | | **Adjusted Free Cash Flow** | **$48,870** | [Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Flow](index=8&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20Net%20Cash%20Provided%20by%20Operating%20Activities%20to%20Adjusted%20Free%20Cash%20Flow) The company reconciled its Q2 2025 net cash provided by operating activities of **$88.6 million** to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of **$48.9 million**, adjusting for changes in operating assets, liabilities, and capital expenditures Q2 2025 Reconciliation of Operating Cash Flow to Adjusted Free Cash Flow (in thousands) | Line Item | Q2 2025 | | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash provided by operating activities** | **$88,642** | | Change in operating assets and liabilities | ($35,232) | | Cash interest expense | $13,459 | | Maintenance capital expenditures | ($21,589) | | Other adjustments | ($3,412) | | **Adjusted Free Cash Flow** | **$48,870** | [Other Reconciliations](index=9&type=section&id=Other%20Reconciliations) This section provides supplemental reconciliations for key non-GAAP inputs, including property, plant, and equipment purchases to Maintenance Capital Expenditures, and GAAP income tax benefit to current income tax expense - For Q2 2025, total purchases of property, plant, and equipment of **$40.3 million** were reconciled to Maintenance Capital Expenditures of **$21.6 million** after adjusting for working capital changes and excluding growth capital expenditures[35](index=35&type=chunk) - The GAAP income tax benefit of **($1,677) thousand** was reconciled to a current income tax expense of **$1,325 thousand** by adjusting for deferred tax expense[37](index=37&type=chunk) - Net interest expense of **$14,798 thousand** was reconciled to cash interest expense of **$13,459 thousand** by adjusting for non-cash amortization of debt discount and financing costs[39](index=39&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=2&type=section&id=Other%20Information) [Conference Call Information](index=2&type=section&id=Conference%20Call%20Information) The company will host a conference call on August 5, 2025, at 9:00 am Central Time to discuss financial and operational results, with a live webcast and updated investor presentation available online [About Atlas Energy Solutions](index=2&type=section&id=About%20Atlas%20Energy%20Solutions) Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is an energy industry solutions provider offering oilfield logistics, distributed power systems, and a large proppant supply network in the Permian Basin, focusing on efficiency and shareholder value [Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Cautionary%20Statement%20Regarding%20Forward-Looking%20Statements) This press release contains forward-looking statements concerning the company's future financial performance, business strategy, and growth prospects, subject to numerous risks and uncertainties

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on August 4, with a consensus estimate of $0.14 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 12.5%. Revenues are projected to be $301.24 million, an increase of 4.8% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.21% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +11.11% for Atlas Energy Solutions, suggesting recent bullish sentiment among analysts [12]. - However, the company holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Atlas Energy Solutions was expected to earn $0.18 per share but only achieved $0.08, resulting in a surprise of -55.56% [13]. - The company has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters [14]. Industry Comparison - Cactus, Inc. (WHD), a peer in the oil and gas sector, is expected to report an EPS of $0.67, down 17.3% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $275.61 million, a decrease of 5.1% [18]. - Cactus has a Zacks Rank of 5 and an Earnings ESP of 0%, making it similarly challenging to predict an earnings beat [20].

Market Overview - As of mid-May 2025, the S&P 500 has turned positive year-to-date for the first time in many weeks, indicating a broad recovery across multiple sectors from previous volatility [1][2] - Despite the market improvement, ongoing trade disputes and the Trump administration's tariff policies remain a concern [2] Cogent Communications - Cogent Communications is currently trading at $50.87, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $75.75, indicating a potential upside of 48.91% based on 8 analyst ratings [5][8] - The company has seen a significant drop in share price since February, nearing a one-year low, but has strong growth potential in wavelength services, which have more than doubled in revenue over two years [6][7] - Cogent expects to capture a quarter of the North American wavelength market in the next three years, with current revenue in this category at $7.1 million [7] Regeneron Pharmaceuticals - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is trading at $571.36, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $890.60, suggesting a potential upside of 55.87% based on 26 analyst ratings [9][10] - The company has experienced a 20% decline year-to-date and a 42% drop over the last 12 months, reaching a multi-year low [10] - Regeneron benefits from a robust pipeline and recent sales growth, achieving $14 billion in sales in 2024, up from over $13 billion the previous year [11] - The company has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and initiated dividend payments in February 2025, enhancing its appeal to investors [13] Atlas Energy Solutions - Atlas Energy Solutions is currently priced at $13.23, with a 12-month stock price forecast of $19.81, indicating a potential upside of 49.75% based on 12 analyst ratings [14][16] - The company has faced a 42% decline year-to-date amid broader energy sector turmoil but benefits from a specialized focus with little competition [14][15] - Atlas Energy's operations in the Permian Basin provide a geographic advantage, helping to reduce costs and streamline logistics [15]

Acquisitions and Mergers - The Company completed the Moser Acquisition on February 24, 2025, for a total consideration of $180.0 million in cash and approximately 1.7 million shares of common stock [222]. - The Moser Acquisition is subject to customary post-closing adjustments, and the Moser Stock Consideration is redeemable by the Company within 90 days of closing [222]. - The company completed the Moser Acquisition on February 24, 2025, for $180 million, impacting operational results [265]. Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 2025 decreased to $1.2 million from $26.8 million in Q1 2024, representing a decline of 95.5% [258]. - Total revenue increased to $297.6 million in Q1 2025, up from $192.7 million in Q1 2024, marking a growth of 54.4% [267]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $74.3 million, slightly down from $75.5 million in Q1 2024, a decrease of 1.6% [258]. - Service revenue surged to $150.6 million in Q1 2025, a 90.5% increase from $79.2 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher logistics sales volumes [269]. - Product revenue rose by $26.2 million to $139.6 million in Q1 2025, despite a $36.8 million decrease due to lower proppant prices [268]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $54.5 million, down from $68.7 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 20.7% [267]. - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q1 2025 was $58.8 million, compared to $71.1 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 17.3% [258]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures for Q1 2025 were $52.4 million, down from $95.5 million in Q1 2024, a reduction of 45.1% [259]. - The Company has plans for future capital expenditures and expansion projects, which may be impacted by various risk factors [215]. Debt and Financing - The Second Term Loan Amendment increased the existing DDT Loan by $100.0 million to a total of $200.0 million, with an interest rate of 5.95% plus the greater of Term SOFR or 4.30% [227]. - Atlas LLC entered into a 2025 Term Loan Credit Agreement with Stonebriar, borrowing $540.0 million on February 21, 2025 [231]. - The 2025 Term Loan Credit Facility has a final maturity date of March 1, 2032, and bears interest at a rate of 9.51% per annum [233]. - Total debt increased to $527.2 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $481.3 million a year earlier, an increase of 9.5% [262]. - The Company drew down $20.0 million from the DDT Loan, with an interest rate of 10.58%, payable in 69 monthly installments starting December 1, 2024 [305]. - The ADDT Loan was provided with an additional principal amount of $150.0 million at an interest rate of 10.86%, payable in 76 monthly installments of $2.7 million starting April 1, 2024 [312]. - The 2023 ABL Credit Facility provides revolving credit financing of up to $75.0 million, with a maturity date of February 22, 2028 [316]. - The Borrowing Base was initially set at $75.0 million and increased to $125.0 million following the First Amendment to the 2023 ABL Credit Agreement [319]. - The Company used a portion of the proceeds from the Equity Offering to repay the remaining $70.0 million of the outstanding principal balance of the 2023 ABL Credit Facility in February 2025 [341]. Market Conditions and Risks - The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased by approximately 16% to $68.24 per barrel in Q1 2025 compared to $81.28 per barrel in Q1 2024 [242]. - The U.S. government imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on product imports, potentially increasing raw material input costs [243]. - The Company is subject to various market risks, including interest rate risks and commodity pricing risks, with no material changes in risk exposure since December 31, 2024 [340]. Operational Highlights - The Company operates a differentiated logistics platform, including the Dune Express, aimed at enhancing efficiency and sustainability in the oil and gas industry [220]. - The Company has over 950 natural gas-powered generators, providing approximately 225 megawatts of power generation capacity across major U.S. resource basins [221]. - The Company is integrating autonomous driving technologies into its logistics operations, creating a semi-autonomous oilfield logistics network [220]. - All of the Company's sand reserves are located in Texas within the Permian Basin, focusing on high-quality proppant production [219]. - The Company is focused on maintaining market-leading uptime for its power generation fleet through in-house manufacturing and remanufacturing capabilities [221]. Shareholder Returns - The company declared a dividend of $0.25 per share of Common Stock on February 11, 2025, and another $0.25 per share on May 2, 2025 [241].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, representing a margin of 25% [6][19] - EBITDA fell slightly below guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and third-party trucking bonuses, reducing Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million [19][22] - Net income was $1.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.01 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $139.7 million, logistics operations contributed $150.6 million, and power rentals added $7.3 million [20] - Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions, while Encore volumes were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4 [20] - Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company entered 2025 with a strong allocation base of approximately 22 million tons, with 3 million tons of potential upside pending [23][86] - The WTI forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April, influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems and launched commercial operations for the Dune Express, positioning itself for long-term growth [6][12] - The Dune Express is expected to enhance logistics margins and provide a long-term infrastructure advantage [11][12] - The company is focused on operational excellence, emphasizing people, processes, and technology to drive performance [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current uncertainty in the oilfield sector, emphasizing a position of strength rather than weakness [8][12] - The company anticipates that while short-term uncertainty remains, its long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity and operational discipline [12][26] - Management noted that economic and commodity price uncertainty is prompting caution among customers, with several Q2 development plans deferred to the second half of 2025 [22][86] Other Important Information - The company expects Q2 service margins to surpass 20% as the benefits of the Dune Express begin to materialize [19] - Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx, with a budget of $115 million for 2025 [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide additional color on your guidance of flat to up sequentially? - Management indicated that there is currently no near-term upside in the market, with operators adopting a wait-and-see attitude [30][31] Question: What is the confidence level around the 22 million tons committed this year? - Management remains confident in the demand for the 22 million tons allocated, supported by strong fundamentals and commitments from large-cap operators [34][35] Question: Can you discuss the ramp-up of the Dune Express and its near-term earnings power? - Management noted that the Dune Express is in the commissioning phase, and while Q1 contributions were modest, they expect margins to expand as operations normalize [42][48] Question: How are deferred volumes impacting your outlook? - Deferred volumes are primarily driven by macro uncertainty, with operators hesitant to commit to new projects until they have more clarity [71][82] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow moving forward? - Management expects improved working capital efficiency and cash flow generation as the year progresses, with Q1 being the largest spending quarter [52][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, Atlas reported revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, representing a margin of 25% [5][18] - EBITDA fell slightly below guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and third-party trucking bonuses, reducing Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million [18] - Net income was $1.2 million, and earnings per share were $0.01 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $139.7 million, logistics operations contributed $150.6 million, and power rentals added $7.3 million [19] - Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions, while Encore volumes were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4 [19] - Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups, with an average price of $22.51 per ton excluding this [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - WTI's forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April, influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity [6] - Atlas entered 2025 with a strong allocation base of approximately 22 million tons and continues to bid on meaningful new tenders [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Atlas aims to navigate the current oilfield sector uncertainty by controlling costs, prioritizing capital discipline, and innovating with purpose [7] - The Dune Express is expected to provide long-term infrastructure advantages and is entering a critical phase with stabilizing volumes [11] - The integration of Mosier Energy Systems is progressing well, with positive customer feedback and new business models being explored [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in Atlas's ability to perform through cycles, emphasizing structural advantages that enable healthy free cash flow even in weak markets [10] - Short-term uncertainty remains, but the long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity and operational discipline [12] - Management noted that while some customers are pausing growth plans, they expect activity to resume as visibility improves [10] Other Important Information - Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx and $15.5 million in maintenance CapEx [21] - The company expects a sequential decline in CapEx in Q2, budgeting $115 million in total CapEx for 2025 with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide additional color on your guidance of flat to up sequentially? - Management indicated that they do not see near-term upside in the market, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing among operators [28] Question: What is the confidence level around the 22 million tons committed this year? - Management remains confident in the demand for the 22 million tons allocated, supported by strong fundamentals and commitments from large-cap operators [34] Question: Can you elaborate on the ramp-up of the Dune Express? - The Dune Express is progressing well, with stable operations and consistent throughput expected to lead to margin expansion as operations normalize [44] Question: How should we think about the free cash flow profile moving forward? - Management noted that Q1 was the largest spending quarter for CapEx, with expectations for improved working capital efficiency and cash flow generation as the year progresses [50] Question: What is the outlook for sand pricing and supply impacts? - Management observed that supply capacity additions have peaked, with some competitors reducing production, which is seen as constructive for the industry [62]

Core Insights - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) reported quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.18 per share, and down from $0.34 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -55.56% [1] - The company posted revenues of $297.59 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.53%, and up from $192.67 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 34.8% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of -3.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.33 on revenues of $333.25 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.28 on revenues of $1.3 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry is currently in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% of industries [8] - Another company in the same industry, Berry Petroleum, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -28.6% [9]

Investor Presentation May 2025 This Presentation contains "forward-looking statements" of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ("Atlas," the "Company," "AESI," "we," "us" or "our") within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"). Statements that are predictive or prospective in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events or conditions or that include the words "may," "ass ...