Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for AFC Gamma Inc. due to lower revenues, with the actual results being crucial for near-term stock price movements [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on March 13, 2025, with a consensus estimate of $0.39 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 20.4% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $11.74 million, down 26.5% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.76% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -7.69%, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [6][7]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AFC Gamma was expected to post earnings of $0.34 per share but delivered $0.35, resulting in a surprise of +2.94% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Conclusion - While AFC Gamma does not appear to be a compelling earnings-beat candidate, investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Flower Capital Inc. has committed and funded a $15 million senior secured credit facility to Story of Ohio LLC to support its expansion in the Ohio adult-use cannabis market [1][2]. Company Overview - Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFC) is a leading commercial mortgage REIT that provides institutional loans to state-law compliant cannabis operators in the U.S. It specializes in loans ranging from $10 million to over $100 million, secured by quality real estate assets, license value, and cash flows [3]. - Story Companies is an emerging multi-state operator (MSO) in the cannabis industry, focusing on developing and acquiring vertically integrated cannabis assets in states with high profit margins and growth potential [4]. Financial Commitment - AFC has provided a $15 million credit facility to Story, which will be used to acquire and build out dispensaries in Ohio [1][2]. - The credit facility is a first-lien term loan secured by all of Story of Ohio LLC's assets, including cannabis licenses and owned real estate in Ohio and Georgia [2]. Strategic Partnership - The partnership between AFC and Story is characterized by a shared understanding of the complexities of the cannabis industry, enabling Story to capitalize on market opportunities [2]. - Story's leadership team consists of serial entrepreneurs with a track record of success in the volatile cannabis market, which aligns with AFC's strategic approach [2].

Company Overview - Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:AFCG) is a leading commercial mortgage REIT that provides institutional loans to state law compliant cannabis operators in the U.S. [3] - The company originates, structures, and underwrites loans ranging from $10 million to over $100 million, typically secured by quality real estate assets, license value, and cash flows [3]. Financial Results Announcement - The company will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024, on Thursday, March 13, 2025, before market open [1]. - Management will review the financial results at 10:00 am ET via webcast available on the Investor Relations website [1]. - A replay of the event will be available one hour after the live presentation [1]. Investor Relations - AFC distributes its earnings releases via its website and email lists, allowing interested parties to sign up for updates [2]. - The Investor Relations contact for the company is Robyn Tannenbaum, reachable at 561-510-2293 or via email [4].

Company Overview - Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (formerly AFC Gamma, Inc.) is a leading commercial mortgage REIT that provides institutional loans to state law compliant cannabis operators in the U.S. [4] - The company is based in West Palm Beach, Florida, and leverages a deep network and significant credit and cannabis expertise to originate, structure, underwrite, and manage loans ranging from $10 million to over $100 million, typically secured by quality real estate assets, license value, and cash flows [4]. Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors of AFC declared a quarterly dividend of $0.33 per outstanding share of common stock for the quarter ending December 31, 2024 [2]. - This dividend is payable on January 15, 2025, to common stockholders of record on December 31, 2024, and is consistent with the September quarterly dividend [2]. Financial Performance - The announcement of the dividend reflects the company's ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders and indicates stable financial performance [2].

Group 1 - Investors in Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) should monitor the stock closely due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the Dec 20, 2024 $2.50 Put which has high implied volatility [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant price change or an upcoming event that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - AFC Gamma currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the REIT and Equity Trust industry, which is in the top 33% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter increasing from earnings of 33 cents per share to 36 cents [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility for AFC Gamma may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility to capture decay [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2024, the company generated distributable earnings of $0.35 per basic weighted average share of common stock, with a GAAP net income of $1.4 million or $0.06 per share [14][26]. - The Board declared a post-spin dividend of $0.33 per share, marking the first dividend since the spin-off [15][32]. - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, were $366.6 million, with cash and cash equivalents of $122.2 million [29]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated approximately $59 million in new loans during Q3 2024, exceeding the annual target of $100 million, with total new originations reaching $116 million [8][24]. - The portfolio had a weighted average yield to maturity of approximately 18% as of both September 30 and November 1, 2024 [28][20]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a modest exposure of 10% to the Florida market, focusing on current market conditions rather than future projections [44]. - The demand for debt capital in the cannabis sector is increasing, driven by refinancing activity and expansions, while traditional lenders remain cautious [19]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to move up the quality curve while targeting a portfolio yielding mid- to high-teens internal rates of return (IRRs) [21]. - The strategy includes deploying capital into strong operators in limited license states and diversifying the portfolio [18][20]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the cannabis industry is facing challenges with revenue growth, particularly in mature markets like Illinois and New Jersey [40]. - The company remains optimistic about its ability to capitalize on opportunities in cannabis lending, despite a cautious lending environment [19][48]. Other Important Information - The company raised capital through its ATM stock offering program, generating net proceeds of approximately $12.2 million [30]. - The CECL reserve increased to $25.3 million, representing about 10.7% of loans at carrying value [31]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for 2025 loan origination targets - Management indicated that while they aim to be fully invested, they will cautiously deploy capital into good credits and new vintage loans, with a similar target for 2025 likely to be discussed in the fourth quarter call [35][36]. Question: Current risks in the cannabis industry compared to six months ago - Management acknowledged that revenue growth has been challenging, with competitive pressures in mature markets affecting profitability, but noted that as a debt lender, the current environment is manageable [40][41]. Question: Insights on Florida market exposure - Management stated that their Florida exposure is modest and they underwrite based on current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of being a challenger in the market [44][45]. Question: Trends in regional banks and lending activity - Management observed that more lenders are becoming cautious rather than entering the market, indicating that recent favorable rates are exceptions rather than the norm [47][48].

A D V A N C E D F L O W E R C A P I T A L | I N V E S TO R P R E S E N T AT IO N Advancing The Industry A Thoughtful Lending Partner Flexible Capital Solutions Deep Industry Experience Investor Presentation NASDAQ: AFCG Q3 2024 N A S D A Q : A F C G | I N V E S T O R P R E S E N T A T I O N D I S C L A I M E R Forward-Looking Statements Some of the statements contained in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and ...

Core Insights - AFC Gamma Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34 per share, but down from $0.49 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of 2.94% [1] - The company posted revenues of $10.46 million for the quarter ended September 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 27.95% and down from $16.81 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed, losing about 21.5% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 25.5% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.36 on revenues of $14.86 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.75 on revenues of $62.79 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for AFC Gamma is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The REIT and Equity Trust industry, to which AFC Gamma belongs, is currently in the top 50% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook as top-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

Financial Performance - Advanced Flower Capital reported GAAP net income of $1.4 million, or $0.06 per basic weighted average common share, for Q3 2024[2]. - Distributable Earnings for Q3 2024 were $7.2 million, or $0.35 per basic weighted average common share[2]. - The reconciliation of GAAP net income to Distributable Earnings showed adjustments including stock-based compensation of $218,643 and unrealized gains of $4.6 million for Q3 2024[17]. - The basic weighted average shares of common stock outstanding were 20,684,149 for Q3 2024[17]. Dividend Policy - The company paid a dividend of $0.33 per common share for Q3 2024, distributing a total of $7.2 million in dividends[4]. - The company is committed to maintaining its dividend policy, aiming to distribute at least 90% of its annual REIT taxable income[14]. Growth and Strategy - The company surpassed its 2024 target of $100 million in new originations, highlighting strong portfolio management and origination efforts[3]. - The company anticipates continued growth and is focused on identifying high-quality operators in key markets[18]. - Advanced Flower Capital's management emphasizes the importance of Distributable Earnings as a measure for assessing overall business performance[11]. Regulatory Filings - The company filed its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q with the SEC on November 13, 2024, providing detailed financial information[5].

Third quarter 2024 GAAP net income of $1.4 million or $0.06 per basic weighted average common share and Distributable Earnings(1)  of $7.2 million or $0.35 per basic weighted average common share Paid first post-spin dividend of $0.33 per common share for third quarter 2024 WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., Nov. 13, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (f/k/a AFC Gamma, Inc.) (NASDAQ:AFCG) (“Advanced Flower Capital”, “AFC” or the “Company”) today announced its results for the quarter ended September 3 ...