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American Financial (AFG) Q4 Earnings, Revenues Top Estimates
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-02-07 16:41
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) reported fourth-quarter 2023 net operating earnings per share of $2.84, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%. The bottom line, however, decreased 5% year over year.Results reflected higher premiums and increased average renewal pricing across the Property and Casualty (P&C) group. However, these were offset by higher expenses and lower net investment income.Behind the Headlines  Total revenues of $1.9 billion increased 1.6% year over year in the quarter. The g ...
American Financial (AFG) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-02-07 02:30
American Financial Group (AFG) reported $1.94 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.5%. EPS of $2.84 for the same period compares to $2.99 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 billion, representing a surprise of +3.37%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +1.07%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.81.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earn ...
American Financial Group (AFG) Tops Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-02-07 00:20
American Financial Group (AFG) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.84 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.81 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.99 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 1.07%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this property and casualty insurer would post earnings of $2.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.45, delivering a surprise of -0.81%.Over the las ...
American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results and Declares Special Dividend
Businesswire· 2024-02-06 22:00
CINCINNATI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG) today reported 2023 fourth quarter net earnings of $263 million ($3.13 per share) compared to $276 million ($3.24 per share) in the 2022 fourth quarter. Net earnings for the 2023 fourth quarter included net after-tax non-core realized gains of $25 million ($0.29 per share). By comparison, net earnings for the 2022 fourth quarter included net after-tax non-core realized gains of $21 million ($0.25 per share). Net earnings for the full ye ...
Unveiling American Financial (AFG) Q4 Outlook: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-02-05 15:21
Analysts on Wall Street project that American Financial Group (AFG) will announce quarterly earnings of $2.81 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 6% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $1.87 billion, declining 1.8% from the same quarter last year.Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 0.8% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial f ...
Analysts Estimate American Financial Group (AFG) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-01-30 16:06
Core Viewpoint - American Financial Group (AFG) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended December 2023, with earnings anticipated at $2.81 per share, reflecting a -6% change, and revenues projected at $1.87 billion, down 1.8% from the previous year [2][5]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 6, 2024, and the actual results will significantly influence the stock price, depending on whether they meet or exceed expectations [1]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.79% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [2]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for AFG is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.14%, suggesting a potential earnings miss [3][5]. - A positive Earnings ESP is generally a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [4]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AFG was expected to post earnings of $2.47 per share but delivered $2.45, resulting in a surprise of -0.81% [7]. - Over the past four quarters, AFG has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times, indicating some volatility in performance [7]. Investment Considerations - Despite the current Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), the combination of a negative Earnings ESP makes it challenging to predict an earnings beat for AFG [5][6]. - Investors are advised to consider other factors beyond earnings surprises when making investment decisions regarding AFG [8].
American Financial Group Management to Participate in the BofA Securities 2024 Financial Services Conference
Businesswire· 2024-01-30 14:23
CINCINNATI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG) announced today that Carl H. Lindner III and S. Craig Lindner, Co-Chief Executive Officers and Brian S. Hertzman, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will participate in the BofA Securities 2024 Financial Services Conference on Tuesday, February 20, 2024. While there will be no Company presentation, AFG will host several investor meetings. The investor material to be used in the meetings will be posted via a link under E ...
My Top Insurance Picks In Early 2024
Seeking Alpha· 2024-01-30 12:58
akinbostanci Long ago, Warren Buffett made me enthusiastic about the insurance industry and it has remained my biggest allocation. Insurance companies are not popular on SA except for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B). They appear boring to many readers, one can hardly expect fireworks from them, and accounting is a must to understand an insurer. But they have worked quite well for me over many years. The table below represents my current insurance holdings ranked in the order of position size. The table d ...
American Financial Group, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend
Businesswire· 2024-01-02 14:00
Group 1 - American Financial Group, Inc. has declared a regular dividend of $0.71 per share of its common stock [1] - The dividend is scheduled to be payable on January 25, 2024, to shareholders on record as of January 15, 2024 [1] Group 2 - American Financial Group is an insurance holding company based in Cincinnati, Ohio [2] - The company primarily engages in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses [2] - Great American Insurance Group, a subsidiary of American Financial Group, has its roots dating back to 1872 with the founding of Great American Insurance Company [2]
American Financial (AFG) - 2023 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2023-11-03 18:08
Part I — Financial Information This section presents the company's unaudited consolidated financial statements, management's discussion and analysis, market risk disclosures, and internal controls [Financial Statements](index=2&type=section&id=Item%201%20%E2%80%94%20Financial%20Statements) The unaudited consolidated financial statements for American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) show an increase in total assets to $30.8 billion as of September 30, 2023, from $28.8 billion at year-end 2022. For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, net earnings were $589 million, a decrease from $622 million in the prior-year period. The company generated $1.21 billion in net cash from operating activities during the first nine months of 2023, an increase from $1.04 billion in the same period of 2022 [Consolidated Balance Sheet](index=2&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheet) This section presents the company's financial position, including assets, liabilities, and equity at specific dates Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights (in Millions) | Account | Sep 30, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Total cash and investments | $14,794 | $14,512 | | Total assets | $30,825 | $28,831 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | $12,891 | $11,974 | | Long-term debt | $1,474 | $1,496 | | Total liabilities | $26,844 | $24,779 | | Total shareholders' equity | $3,981 | $4,052 | | Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | $30,825 | $28,831 | [Consolidated Statement of Earnings](index=3&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Earnings) This section details the company's revenues, expenses, and net earnings over specific periods Consolidated Earnings Summary (in Millions, Except Per Share Data) | Metric | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | 9 Months 2023 | 9 Months 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | P&C insurance net earned premiums | $1,855 | $1,767 | $4,799 | $4,462 | | Net investment income | $168 | $151 | $583 | $549 | | Total revenues | $2,164 | $1,984 | $5,744 | $5,111 | | Net Earnings | $177 | $165 | $589 | $622 | | Total diluted earnings per share | $2.09 | $1.93 | $6.93 | $7.29 | [Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Comprehensive%20Income) This section reports changes in equity from non-owner sources, including net earnings and other comprehensive income items - Comprehensive income was **$118 million** for Q3 2023, a significant improvement from a comprehensive loss of **$89 million** in Q3 2022. For the nine-month period, comprehensive income was **$562 million** in 2023, compared to a loss of **$99 million** in 2022. The change was primarily driven by smaller other comprehensive losses from unrealized holding losses on securities[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity](index=5&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Changes%20in%20Equity) This section details changes in shareholders' equity, including net earnings, dividends, and share repurchases - For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, total shareholders' equity decreased from **$4,052 million** to **$3,981 million**. The decrease was driven by dividends paid (**$500 million**) and common stock repurchases (**$153 million**), which were partially offset by net earnings of **$589 million**[14](index=14&type=chunk) Share Repurchases and Dividends (9 Months Ended Sep 30, 2023, in Millions) | Activity | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Dividends Paid | $500 | | Shares Acquired and Retired | $153 | [Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Cash%20Flows) This section summarizes cash inflows and outflows from operating, investing, and financing activities Consolidated Cash Flow Summary (9 Months Ended Sep 30, in Millions) | Cash Flow Activity | 2023 | 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $1,214 | $1,043 | | Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities | $459 | $(1,062) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(1,324) | $(1,318) | | **Net Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents** | **$349** | **$(1,337)** | [Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section provides detailed explanations and additional information supporting the financial statements - On July 3, 2023, AFG acquired Crop Risk Services (CRS) from AIG for **$234 million** in cash. The preliminary purchase price allocation includes **$85 million** in goodwill and **$124 million** in finite-lived intangible assets, primarily related to agency relationships[60](index=60&type=chunk)[63](index=63&type=chunk) - During Q3 2023, AFG recorded a goodwill impairment charge of **$26 million** related to its investment in Verikai due to slower than anticipated growth. This charge is included in 'realized loss on subsidiary'[127](index=127&type=chunk) - The company's property and casualty insurance operations are divided into three main sub-segments: Property and transportation, Specialty casualty, and Specialty financial[66](index=66&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A)](index=37&type=section&id=Item%202%20%E2%80%94%20Management%27s%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management reported net earnings of $177 million ($2.09 per share) for Q3 2023, up from $165 million ($1.93 per share) in Q3 2022, driven by higher investment yields and lower realized losses, partially offset by lower underwriting profit in the Specialty casualty segment. For the first nine months of 2023, net earnings were $589 million, down from $622 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower underwriting profit and reduced returns from alternative investments. The company maintains a strong financial position, with a debt-to-total capital ratio of 24.8% and expects continued premium growth in a favorable P&C market [Overview](index=38&type=section&id=Overview) This section provides a high-level summary of the company's financial performance and outlook Net Earnings Comparison (in Millions, Except Per Share) | Period | 2023 | 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q3 Net Earnings** | **$177** | **$165** | | **Q3 Diluted EPS** | **$2.09** | **$1.93** | | **9 Months Net Earnings** | **$589** | **$622** | | **9 Months Diluted EPS** | **$6.93** | **$7.29** | - Management expects continued premium growth and strong underwriting results due to the favorable property and casualty insurance market. Higher interest rates are anticipated to positively impact investment income into 2024[164](index=164&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=39&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) This section discusses the company's ability to meet its short-term and long-term obligations and its capital structure Debt to Total Capital Ratio | Date | Ratio (Including Subordinated Debt) | | :--- | :--- | | Sep 30, 2023 | 24.8% | | Dec 31, 2022 | 24.9% | - In the first nine months of 2023, AFG repurchased **1,329,831 shares** for **$153 million** and paid a special cash dividend of **$341 million** (**$4.00 per share**). A further special dividend of **$1.50 per share** (approx. **$126 million**) was declared on November 1, 2023[175](index=175&type=chunk) - At September 30, 2023, the parent company (AFG) held **$364 million** in cash and investments and had access to a new five-year, **$450 million** revolving credit facility established in June 2023, with no borrowings outstanding[179](index=179&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=48&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) This section analyzes the company's revenues, expenses, and profitability across its business segments Reconciliation to Core Net Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP, in Millions) | Metric | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 | 9 Months 2023 | 9 Months 2022 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Earnings (GAAP)** | **$177** | **$165** | **$589** | **$622** | | Realized (gains) losses, net of tax | $15 | $28 | $53 | $113 | | Realized loss on subsidiary | $4 | - | $4 | - | | Special A&E charge, net of tax | $12 | - | $12 | - | | Gain (loss) on retirement of debt, net of tax | - | $(1) | $(1) | $7 | | **Core Net Operating Earnings** | **$208** | **$192** | **$657** | **$738** | [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk](index=73&type=section&id=Item%203%20%E2%80%94%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosure%20about%20Market%20Risk) The company's market risk profile has not materially changed since its 2022 Form 10-K. The primary market risk is interest rate risk affecting the fair value of its fixed maturity portfolio. A hypothetical immediate 100 basis point increase in interest rates would result in an estimated pretax decrease of $299 million (3.0%) in the fair value of the fixed maturity portfolio as of September 30, 2023 Interest Rate Sensitivity of Fixed Maturity Portfolio (as of Sep 30, 2023) | Metric | Value | | :--- | :--- | | Fair value of fixed maturity portfolio | $9,982 million | | Pretax impact of 100 bps rate increase | $(299) million | | Percentage impact | (3.0%) | [Controls and Procedures](index=73&type=section&id=Item%204%20%E2%80%94%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management, including the Co-CEOs and CFO, evaluated the company's disclosure controls and procedures and concluded they were effective as of the end of the third quarter of 2023. There were no material changes to the company's internal control over financial reporting during the quarter - Based on an evaluation as of the end of the reporting period, the Co-CEOs and CFO concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures are effective[374](index=374&type=chunk) Part II — Other Information This section includes details on equity security sales, other disclosures, and required exhibits [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=74&type=section&id=Item%202%20%E2%80%94%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) During the third quarter of 2023, AFG repurchased a total of 755,111 shares of its common stock at an average price of approximately $112.25 per share. For the first nine months of 2023, the company repurchased a total of 1,329,831 shares for $153 million. As of the end of the quarter, approximately 6.3 million shares remained authorized for repurchase under existing plans Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities (Q3 2023) | Month | Total Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid Per Share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | July | 9,707 | $115.34 | | August | 258,104 | $112.57 | | September | 487,300 | $112.07 | | **Q3 Total** | **755,111** | **~$112.25** | - As of September 30, 2023, **6,271,723 shares** may yet be purchased under the company's publicly announced repurchase plans, which are authorized through December 31, 2025[376](index=376&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=74&type=section&id=Item%205%20%E2%80%94%20Other%20Information) During the third quarter of 2023, no directors or officers of the company adopted, terminated, or modified any Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements - No directors or officers adopted, terminated, or modified a "Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" or "non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" during the three months ended September 30, 2023[378](index=378&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=75&type=section&id=Item%206%20%E2%80%94%20Exhibits) This section lists the exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including certifications from the Co-Chief Executive Officers and Chief Financial Officer as required by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, and XBRL data files