Core Insights - American Financial Group (AFG) reported a revenue of $1.86 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.4% year-over-year and falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93 billion, resulting in a surprise of -3.79% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.81, down from $2.76 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of -16.59% against the consensus estimate of $2.17 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - The company’s shares have returned +10.4% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.5% change, indicating a performance in line with the broader market [3] - In the Property and Transportation segment, the Loss and LAE Ratio was reported at 62.1%, better than the estimated 66.8% [4] - The Underwriting Expense Ratio for Property and Transportation was 30.4%, slightly above the average estimate of 30.1% [4] - The Combined Ratio for Property and Transportation was 92.5%, outperforming the estimated 96.8% [4] - In the Specialty Casualty segment, the Loss and LAE Ratio was 67.6%, worse than the estimated 62.8% [4] - The Underwriting Expense Ratio for Specialty Casualty was 30%, above the average estimate of 27.7% [4] - The Combined Ratio for Property and Casualty - Specialty was reported at 94%, in line with the average estimate of 94.7% [4] - The Underwriting Expense Ratio for Specialty Financial was 45.9%, better than the estimated 46.9% [4] Revenue and Premiums - Net investment income was reported at $173 million, below the average estimate of $203.73 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 12.6% [4] - Net earned premium in the Property and Transportation segment was $500 million, significantly lower than the estimated $675.75 million, reflecting a -2.5% change year-over-year [4] - In the Specialty Casualty segment, net earned premium was $794 million, exceeding the average estimate of $759.90 million, with an 8.8% year-over-year increase [4] - Specialty Financial's net earned premium was reported at $286 million, above the average estimate of $270.42 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 17.7% [4] - Other income (loss) was reported at $27 million, below the average estimate of $37.94 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 30.8% [4]

American Financial Group (AFG) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.81 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.76 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -16.59%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this property and casualty insurer would post earnings of $3.20 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.12, delivering a surprise of -2.50%.Over the l ...

The upcoming report from American Financial Group (AFG) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $2.17 per share, indicating a decline of 21.4% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $1.94 billion, representing an increase of 2.9% year over year.The current level reflects an upward revision of 0.2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over t ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Financial Group (AFG) despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - AFG is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 21.4%, while revenues are projected to be $1.94 billion, an increase of 2.9% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for May 6, 2025, and could lead to stock price increases if results exceed expectations [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.2% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for AFG is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.42%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict earnings deviations, with positive readings being more reliable [6][7]. - AFG's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AFG was expected to post earnings of $3.20 per share but delivered only $3.12, resulting in a surprise of -2.50% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, AFG has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Industry Comparison - Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD), another player in the property and casualty insurance sector, is expected to report earnings of $0.78 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 4% [17]. - SKWD has an Earnings ESP of 8.15% and has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, contrasting with AFG's performance [18].

Shares of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) are trading at a premium to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry. Its price-to-book value of 2.39X is higher than the industry average of 1.63X. It has a Value Score of B. Shares of other insurers like The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) , Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) and W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAmerican Financial shares have gained 2.1% ...

Group 1 - The article discusses concerns regarding an American Financial Group, Inc. debenture (NYSE: AFGC) which has a face yield of 5.125% annually through 2059 [1] - Robert F. Abbott has been managing his family's investments since 1995 and has incorporated options strategies such as covered calls and collars since 2010 [1] - Abbott is a freelance writer with a focus on providing information for new and intermediate-level mutual fund investors [1]

American Financial Group (AFG) recently resorted to wealth distribution to shareholders via a special dividend. The board approved a special dividend of $2 per share, testifying to the insurer’s strong financial position and long-term growth prospects.The special dividend, totaling $170 million, will be paid on March 28, 2025, to shareholders of record on March 17, 2025. This special dividend is in addition to the quarterly cash dividend of 80 cents per share paid on Jan. 24, 2025. With this special dividen ...

Financial Performance - AFG's gross written premiums for 2024 reached $10,533 million, an increase of 9.0% from $9,656 million in 2023[32] - The net written premiums for 2024 were $7,139 million, up from $6,692 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of 6.7%[32] - AFG's combined ratio for 2024 was 91.2%, slightly higher than 90.4% in 2023, indicating continued underwriting profitability[32] - The statutory combined ratio averaged 90.6% from 2015 to 2024, outperforming the property and casualty commercial lines industry average of 98.3%[28] - AFG's underwriting gain for 2024 was $620 million, a slight decrease from $631 million in 2023[32] Losses and Claims - AFG's total net losses from current accident year catastrophes were $180 million in 2024, compared to $162 million in 2023[33] - AFG's loss and LAE ratio for 2024 was 63.3%, up from 61.6% in 2023, indicating an increase in claims costs[32] - Paid losses and LAE decreased to $11 million in 2024 from $15 million in 2023 and $23 million in 2022[59] - AFG's liability for unpaid losses and LAE reported on a GAAP basis was $14,179 million as of December 31, 2024[57] Reinsurance - AFG's reinsurance ceded amounted to $3,394 million in 2024, up from $2,964 million in 2023, indicating a growth of 14.5%[55] - The company expects to continue reinsuring 50% of its crop premiums not reinsured by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation in the private market for 2025[53] - AFG's catastrophe reinsurance coverage for U.S.-based operations includes $205 million in excess of a $70 million per event primary retention[47] Investment Portfolio - AFG's investment portfolio totaled $15.85 billion as of December 31, 2024[78] - The earned yield on fixed maturities was 5.0% for 2024, compared to 4.7% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2022[80] - Total return on AFG's fixed maturities was 6.2% in 2024, outperforming the Barclays Capital U.S. Universal Bond Index, which returned 2.0%[82] - Approximately 96% of AFG's fixed maturity investments had a National Association of Insurance Commissioners designation of 1 or 2, indicating high quality[84] Employee Metrics - 94% of employees agreed that the organization provides high-quality products and services, based on the 2024 Employee Survey[68] - The voluntary turnover rate for AFG in 2024 was 7.1%, indicating positive retention trends[67] - The most recent Employee Survey in 2024 had a participation rate of 92%[68] Regulatory Compliance - AFG is subject to various federal regulations, including the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act and the Fair Credit Reporting Act, impacting daily operations[94] - The Dodd-Frank Act established the Federal Insurance Office (FIO) to monitor the insurance industry and ensure access to affordable non-health insurance products[95] - Compliance with Solvency II and other solvency regulations is mandatory for AFG's foreign insurance subsidiaries[96] - The company must adhere to various privacy laws, including the EU and UK General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)[96] Business Operations - The company completed the acquisition of Crop Risk Services in July 2023, maintaining its position as the fifth-ranked writer of U.S. crop insurance[20] - AFG operates 36 insurance businesses under the Great American Insurance Group, focusing on specialized commercial products[23] - The property and casualty insurance group primarily directs sales through independent agents and brokers, with a commission structure based on policy sales and profitability[62]

Group 1 - American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is an insurance holding company with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings revised 6.4% downward over the last 60 days [1] - BASF SE (BASFY) is a chemical company with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings revised 5.7% downward over the last 60 days [1] - Brunswick Corporation (BC) designs, manufactures, and markets recreation products, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings revised 19.9% downward over the last 60 days [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AFG reported core net operating earnings of $10.75 per share for the full year 2024, with a core operating return on equity of 19.3% [12] - The company returned $791 million to shareholders in 2024, including $545 million in special dividends and $246 million in regular dividends [13] - Growth in book value per share, excluding AOCI, plus dividends was 19.6% in 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Property & Casualty (P&C) segment's net investment income increased by approximately 21% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with a full-year record of $784 million, an 8% increase from 2023 [16] - The Specialty Property and Casualty businesses reported a combined ratio of 89% in Q4 2024, slightly higher than the 87.7% reported in Q4 2023 [23][24] - The Specialty Casualty Group achieved a combined ratio of 89% in Q4 2024, up from 84.6% in the prior year [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross and net written premiums for Q4 2024 increased by 3% and 1%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2023 [29] - Average renewal pricing across the P&C Group, excluding workers' compensation, was up 8% in Q4 2024 [30] - The Specialty Financial group reported a combined ratio of 80.7% for Q4 2024, an improvement over the prior year [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AFG's business plan for 2025 includes a growth target of 5% in net written premiums and a combined ratio of approximately 92.5% [40] - The company aims to maintain a strong capital position, with expectations of generating significant excess capital in 2025 for potential acquisitions or special dividends [19][20] - AFG continues to focus on rate adequacy and disciplined operating philosophy to create long-term shareholder value [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the potential for attractive returns from alternative investments, with an expected annual return of approximately 8% [40] - The company acknowledged the impact of the Southern California wildfires, estimating losses between $60 million to $70 million, which are included in the 2025 assumptions [41] - Management emphasized the importance of monitoring loss ratio trends and adjusting reserves accordingly to maintain financial health [58][60] Other Important Information - AFG's investment portfolio totaled $15.9 billion, with approximately 66% invested in fixed maturities yielding about 5.75% [17] - The company reported a 12.7% increase in its quarterly dividend to an annual rate of $3.20 per share starting in October 2024 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on the estimated losses from the California wildfires? - Management indicated that losses are primarily from property-oriented businesses, including lender-placed property and marine [48] Question: What lines of business are driving the higher expense ratio? - Management explained that higher commission ratios in growing businesses, such as financial institutions, impact the overall expense ratio [51] Question: Can you elaborate on the cash reserve development in the quarter? - Adverse development was mainly from excess liability writing units focused on larger entities, while other units performed well [56] Question: What is the outlook for the combined ratio in 2025? - Management confirmed that the combined ratio of 92.5% reflects expectations of improved loss experience and prudent growth strategies [42] Question: How is the Specialty Casualty segment expected to perform? - Management noted that excluding workers' compensation, growth is expected to be in the high single digits, supported by improved pricing [67]