Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. for Q4 2024 was $18 million, a decrease of 95.2% from $376 million in Q4 2023[6]. - Adjusted operating income for Q4 2024 was $66 million, down 80.5% from $338 million in Q4 2023[6]. - The company reported a diluted earnings per share of $0.35 for Q4 2024, a significant decrease from $6.40 in Q4 2023[6]. - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $872 million, down from $1,373 million in 2023, a decrease of 36.6%[15]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of $0.36 for Q4 2024, down from $6.54 in Q4 2023, a decline of 94.5%[15]. - The company reported a total of $98 million in net income for Q4 2024, compared to $339 million in Q4 2023[30]. - Net income attributable to AGL for 2024 was $376 million, a decrease of 49% compared to $739 million in 2023[153]. Revenue and Premiums - Gross written premiums (GWP) increased to $186 million in Q4 2024, up 37% from $136 million in Q4 2023[6]. - Net earned premiums increased to $103 million in Q4 2024 from $83 million in Q4 2023, representing a 24% growth[15]. - Net earned premiums for the insurance segment increased to $104 million in Q4 2024, compared to $83 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a growth of 25.3%[30]. - Net earned premiums rose to $406 million in 2024, compared to $344 million in 2023, reflecting an increase of 18%[33][36]. - Total Gross Written Premium (GWP) for Q4 2024 was $186 million, an increase from $136 million in Q4 2023, representing a growth of 37%[67]. - The company reported total GWP of $357 million for 2023, with an increase to $440 million anticipated for 2024[76]. Assets and Equity - Total shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. decreased to $5,495 million as of December 31, 2024, from $5,713 million a year earlier[11]. - Total assets decreased to $11,901 million as of December 31, 2024, from $12,539 million as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 5.1%[17]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL decreased to $5,495 million as of December 31, 2024, from $5,713 million as of December 31, 2023, a decrease of 3.8%[17]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share increased to $108.80 in 2024 from $101.63 in 2023[153]. - Adjusted operating shareholders' equity was $5,795 million in 2024, down from $5,990 million in 2023, a decrease of about 3.25%[160]. Investment Income - Net investment income remained stable at $93 million for Q4 2024, consistent with the previous quarter[27]. - Net investment income decreased slightly to $340 million in 2024 from $365 million in 2023, a decline of approximately 7%[33][36]. - Total net investment income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $340 million, a decrease of 8.3% from $365 million in 2023[56]. - The company reported a total of $15 million in net investment income from funds in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from a loss of $2 million in the same quarter of 2023[53][55]. Claims and Reserves - Claims-paying resources were reported at $10,211 million as of December 31, 2024, down from $10,665 million a year prior[11]. - The loss and LAE reserve decreased to $268 million as of December 31, 2024, from $376 million as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 28.8%[17]. - The total claims-paying resources decreased to $10,211 million in 2024 from $10,665 million in 2023[153]. Tax and Expenses - The effective tax rate on net income for Q4 2024 was 26.6%, compared to an effective tax rate of (87.9)% in Q4 2023[6]. - Total expenses for Q4 2024 were $106 million, a slight increase from $81 million in Q4 2023[30]. - Total expenses for 2024 were $446 million, down from $733 million in 2023, indicating a reduction of 39%[33][36]. - Interest expenses for the Corporate Division remained stable at $101 million in 2024, compared to $99 million in 2023, reflecting a slight increase of about 2.02%[144]. Market and Business Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and exploring new business opportunities in both U.S. and non-U.S. public finance sectors[67]. - The company expects installment premiums to contribute $294 million to total PVP in 2023, decreasing to $262 million in 2024[76]. - The company anticipates a total of $1,304 million in net expected loss to be paid from 2025 to 2029[84]. Financial Metrics and Ratios - The adjusted operating return on equity (ROE) for Q4 2024 was 4.5%, down from 23.1% in Q4 2023[6]. - The capital ratio improved to 73:1 in 2024 from 66:1 in 2023, indicating stronger capital adequacy[62]. - The unrealized loss on the investment portfolio was $(397) million in 2024, compared to $(361) million in 2023, indicating a worsening of approximately 9.97%[160]. Corporate Division Performance - Total revenues for the Corporate Division for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $17 million, down from $275 million in 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 93.82%[144]. - Adjusted operating income (loss) for the Corporate Division was $(135) million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $45 million in 2023, marking a significant decline[144]. - Total revenues for Other Results in the three months ended December 31, 2024, were $10 million, compared to $33 million in the same period of 2023, a decrease of approximately 69.7%[148].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted operating income for Q4 2024 was $66 million, or $1.27 per share, compared to $338 million, or $5.75 per share in Q4 2023, which included non-recurring tax benefits [28][29] - Full year 2024 adjusted operating income was $389 million, or $7.10 per share, down from $648 million, or $10.78 per share in 2023 [39][40] - Adjusted book value per share reached $170.12, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share was $114.75 [8][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - PVP across three financial guaranty businesses topped $400 million for the second consecutive year, up from $375 million in 2022 [16][17] - US Public Finance PVP reached $270 million, the highest in four years, with a total insured municipal par sold exceeding $24 billion, the most since 2010 [9][18] - Non-US Public Finance contributed $67 million of PVP, while Global Structured Finance generated $65 million of PVP [24][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The US municipal bond market started 2025 with strong new issue volume, with some analysts projecting that 2025 volume may rival or exceed the record volume of 2024 [13] - The bond insurance industry’s annual penetration rate was 8.3% of par issued, marking the fourth consecutive year above 8% [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company merged its two primary insurance subsidiaries into one, creating a more efficient capital structure and a larger insurer with a diversified portfolio [11] - Geographic expansion efforts included opening offices in Australia and Singapore, with a focus on opportunities in Continental Europe and Asia [10][26] - The company aims to diversify earnings through its Asset Management segment and improve investment results via alternative investments [34][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the UK water sector, particularly regarding Thames Water, and noted that the macroeconomic background appears favorable [52][54] - The company remains committed to resolving its Puerto Rico exposure and is optimistic about the political landscape aiding in this process [106][108] - Management highlighted the resilience of the business model and the potential for untapped opportunities globally [14] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million in 2024, representing 11% of shares outstanding as of December 31, 2023 [43][44] - A pre-tax gain of approximately $103 million from litigation with Lehman Brothers International Europe will be recognized in Q1 2025 [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent developments on Thames Water and reserve provisioning - Management noted that the UK government does not plan to nationalize water utilities and Thames Water is making progress in regulatory determinations [52][54] Question: Impact of California wildfires on exposures - Management confirmed no significant exposure to California wildfires, with no missed debt service payments [63] Question: Non-US structured finance par written this quarter - Management indicated that the UK dominates, but opportunities are emerging in Australia and Continental Europe [65][66] Question: Return on equity with current premium rates - Management discussed that ROE varies based on the mix of business, with structured finance and international infrastructure yielding higher returns [79][84] Question: AOCI and its impact on book value - Management acknowledged that interest rates fluctuate, affecting unrealized gains and losses, but noted the upcoming gain from Lehman Brothers will positively impact book value [90][91]

Equity Investor Presentation December 31, 2024 Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure 2 ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future events of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL) and its subsidiaries (collectively with AGL, Assured Guaranty or the Company). These statements can be ...

Competitive Positioning - In 2024, the Company insured approximately 58% of the par value of new U.S. public finance bonds sold with insurance, while its competitor BAM insured approximately 42%[83]. - The Company maintains a competitive advantage over BAM due to its larger capital base and ability to insure larger transactions across diverse bond sectors[83]. - The Company is the only financial guaranty insurance company currently writing new guaranties in the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance markets, which provides a competitive advantage due to greater diversification[85]. Capital Management - The Company has excess capital based on its internal capital model and rating agency models, and has been returning some of this excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends[89]. - The Company has a co-guarantee structure with AGUK, where AG guarantees 85% of obligations and AGUK guarantees 15%[91]. - The Company has a quota share reinsurance agreement with AGUK, reinsuring approximately 50-100% of most outstanding financial guaranties written by AGUK prior to 2011[93]. Investment Strategy - As of December 31, 2024, the investment portfolio had a carrying value of $8.7 billion, with approximately $7.7 billion (89%) consisting of fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments[122]. - The majority (70% or $5.5 billion) of fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments was managed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P., Wellington Management Company, LLP, and MacKay Shields LLC[122]. - The Company has committed to invest a total of $1 billion in funds and vehicles managed by Sound Point within the first two years of their engagement[107]. - The Company's ownership interest in Sound Point was valued at $418 million as of December 31, 2024, reported under "other invested assets"[125]. - The Company aims to diversify its earnings into fee-based industries leveraging its core competency in credit through its investment in Sound Point[110]. Risk Management - The Company has established several management committees to develop enterprise-level risk management guidelines tailored to its insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries[132]. - The Company has established a comprehensive risk management framework, including a Portfolio Risk Management Committee responsible for credit, market, and liquidity risk management[19]. - Each insurance subsidiary has a Reserve Committee that reviews reserve methodologies and establishes reserves based on loss projection scenarios and probability weights[134]. - The Company conducts quarterly risk reporting to keep the Board and senior management informed about material risk-related developments[138]. - The Company integrates climate risk into its underwriting and credit approval processes, requiring assessments of environmental risks for insured exposures[148]. Climate Risk Management - The Company has invested in talent and technology to enhance its understanding of climate risks and their financial implications[149]. - The Company is subject to various regulatory reporting requirements regarding climate risk management, which have not materially impacted its financial condition[152]. - The Environmental and Social Responsibility Committee oversees the Company's approach to addressing climate change risk[153]. - The Company has formed an environmental risk working group to evaluate the financial impact of evolving climate conditions on its insured portfolio[154]. Regulatory Compliance - AG, the Company's insurance subsidiary, is licensed to write financial guaranty insurance in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico[156]. - AG is required to file financial statements with insurance departments in every U.S. state where it is licensed, and its operations are subject to periodic examinations every three to five years[160]. - The Maryland Commissioner evaluates the financial strength and management integrity of applicants before approving control acquisitions, which may delay or deter potential proposals[159]. - AG's Bermuda reinsurance subsidiaries, AG Re and AGRO, are not licensed in any state but have established trusts to secure their reinsurance obligations[176]. Employee and Diversity Initiatives - As of December 31, 2024, the Company employed 361 people globally, with approximately 40% female and 60% male workforce[216]. - The average tenure of employees at the Company is approximately 13 years[216]. - The Company has established five employee resource groups (ERGs) to foster community and support among employees[223]. - The Company’s Diversity and Inclusion Committee is composed of employees from various backgrounds to promote cultural awareness and support a diverse workforce[224]. Taxation and Financial Reporting - AGL has elected to be treated as a U.S. corporation for all U.S. federal tax purposes, subjecting it to regular corporate tax rates[240]. - AGL is subject to U.K. corporation tax at a main rate of 25% on its worldwide profits, effective from November 2013[244]. - The current standard rate of U.K. VAT is 20%, and AGL is registered to report its VAT liability[244]. - AGL's dividends received from direct subsidiaries are exempt from U.K. corporation tax due to section 931D of the U.K. Corporation Tax Act 2009[245].

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty reported quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.48 per share, and a significant decline from $5.75 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -14.19% [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The company posted revenues of $199 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.13%, although this is a slight decrease from $201 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Assured Guaranty has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates four times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Assured Guaranty shares have increased by approximately 1.8% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.3% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is mixed, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting that shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Group 3: Future Earnings Estimates - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.47 on revenues of $183 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.50 on revenues of $728 million [7] - The outlook for the industry, particularly the Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Multi line, is in the bottom 47% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $166.47, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share reached $113.96 at the end of Q3 2024 [7] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $5.80 per share, a 13% increase compared to the first nine months of the previous year [9] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2024 was $130 million or $2.42 per share, compared to $206 million or $3.42 per share in Q3 2023, which included a one-time gain [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date production value premium (PVP) was $281 million, $32 million higher than the same period last year, with Q3 PVP at $63 million, up $17 million year-over-year [8][16] - U.S. public finance segment insured $16.6 billion of new issue par, an 18% increase year-over-year, capturing 57% of all insured par sold in the primary U.S. municipal bond market [17][18] - Non-U.S. public finance business produced $44 million of PVP year-to-date, $6 million higher than the previous year [22] - Global structured finance also produced $44 million of PVP year-to-date, with Q3 PVP at $19 million, $5 million higher than the same quarter last year [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen an increase in the number of large high-profile transactions using insurance, indicating strong market demand [14] - The municipal bond issuance in the first nine months of 2024 was significantly higher year-over-year, contributing to the company's strong performance [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to optimize capital alignment with business opportunities to improve returns, targeting $500 million in share repurchases annually [12][37] - The merger of AGM into AG is expected to enhance operating efficiency and capital utilization, with no change in ratings post-merger [9][10] - The company is strategically pursuing new product opportunities while managing emerging risks and capital [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued growth trajectory of the business, driven by strong demand for bond insurance and infrastructure investment needs [14][40] - The company anticipates sustained high issuance levels in the municipal market, supported by the recognized value of insurance [40] - Management noted that the developments with U.K. utilities would not impact dividend capacity or the buyback program [39] Other Important Information - The company has authorized an additional $250 million in share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to approximately $385 million [13] - The investment portfolio continues to perform well, with alternative investments generating an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [32][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: How do developments with U.K. utilities impact capital management outlook for 2025? - Management indicated that there would be no impact on dividend capacity or the buyback program, expecting to reach the $500 million target for share repurchases [39] Question: Can you provide context around the lower insured par market penetration this quarter? - Management noted that insured penetration has been increasing year-over-year and expects this trend to continue due to the recognized value of insurance [40] Question: How will the 15% Bermuda income tax rate affect corporate tax rate in 2025? - Management expects a slight decrease in the corporate tax rate in 2025 due to the utilization of tax benefits [42] Question: Is there a possibility of a contingency payment based on the outcome of PREPA? - Management stated they have made offers that make sense for both parties but are waiting for the right price [44] Question: What is causing the cash shortfall for U.K. water utilities? - Management explained that equity owners have pulled money out without reinvesting, leading to a need for new equity to support capital improvements [54] Question: Will the upcoming rate determination from the U.K. water regulator impact loss adjustments? - Management indicated that while the outcome is important, they do not expect it to significantly change their numbers [59]

Economic Indicators - The Company reported a real GDP increase of 2.8% in Q3 2024, compared to 3.0% in Q2 2024[361]. - The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.1% at the end of September 2024, unchanged from Q2 2024[361]. - The inflation rate in the U.S. was 2.4% for the 12-month period ending September 2024, down from 3.0% for the previous period[362]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% in September 2024[363]. - The average 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate was 3.60% in Q3 2024, lower than 3.82% in Q2 2024[365]. - The credit spread between 30-year BBB-rated general obligation and 30-year AAA MMD averaged 90 basis points in Q3 2024, unchanged from Q2 2024[366]. Company Financial Performance - Net income attributable to AGL for Q3 2024 was $171 million, up from $157 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to a benefit in net loss and LAE of $51 million compared to a loss of $100 million in Q3 2023[401]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2024 was $130 million, down from $206 million in Q3 2023, mainly due to the absence of gains from the Sound Point and AHP Transactions[405]. - Total revenues for Q3 2024 were $269 million, compared to $403 million in Q3 2023, reflecting a decrease in net investment income and lower fair value gains[400]. - Gross written premiums (GWP) for Q3 2024 were $61 million, up from $40 million in Q3 2023, indicating growth in the insurance segment[397]. - Foreign exchange gains for Q3 2024 were $55 million, compared to losses of $39 million in Q3 2023, contributing positively to net income[401]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL as of September 30, 2024, was $5.728 billion, an increase from $5.713 billion as of December 31, 2023[398]. - Adjusted book value as of September 30, 2024, was $8.582 billion, down from $8.765 billion as of December 31, 2023, primarily due to share repurchases and dividends[407]. - The effective tax rate for Q3 2024 was 19.9%, compared to 21.4% in Q3 2023, reflecting changes in income recognition across subsidiaries[400]. - Net investment income for Q3 2024 was $82 million, down from $100 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to lower income on Loss Mitigation Securities[400]. - The company reported a net income of $370 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, compared to $382 million for the same period in 2023[400]. Insurance Segment Performance - The Company's adjusted operating income for the insurance segment was $162 million in Q3 2024, compared to $59 million in Q3 2023[420]. - The total segment revenues for the insurance segment were $204 million in Q3 2024, slightly down from $208 million in Q3 2023[420]. - The Company reported a loss expense of $(53) million in Q3 2024, compared to a gain of $101 million in Q3 2023[420]. - The Company’s net investment income decreased to $82 million in Q3 2024 from $101 million in Q3 2023[420]. - The Company’s fair value gains on trading securities increased to $9 million in Q3 2024, up from $4 million in Q3 2023[420]. - U.S. public finance GWP in Q3 2024 was $35 million, up from $29 million in Q3 2023, representing a 20.7% increase[427]. - Total GWP for Q3 2024 reached $61 million, compared to $40 million in Q3 2023, marking a 52.5% growth[427]. - Non-U.S. public finance GWP in Q3 2024 was $7 million, an increase from a negative $5 million in Q3 2023[427]. - The company's direct par written accounted for 60% of the total U.S. municipal market insured issuance in Q3 2024, down from 61% in Q3 2023[428]. - Total PVP for Q3 2024 was $63 million, compared to $46 million in Q3 2023, reflecting a 37% increase[427]. Investment and Capital Management - The Company expects to invest an aggregate amount of $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments[386]. - The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of September 30, 2024, was $468 million, aimed at mitigating the economic effect of insured losses[383]. - The Company has repurchased 150 million common shares for approximately $5.3 billion since 2013, representing about 77% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program[388]. - The Company issued $350 million in 6.125% Senior Notes due in 2028, primarily to redeem $330 million of 5% Senior Notes due in 2024[393]. - The Company has a liquidity target of maintaining liquid assets equal to 1.5 times its projected operating company cash flow needs over the next four quarters[547]. - AGL has committed to a revolving credit facility with AGUS for a principal amount not exceeding $225 million, which terminates on October 25, 2033[536]. - The Company plans to fund acquisitions and capital investments through liquidity derived from dividends and external financing[531]. - AGL's insurance subsidiaries are expected to meet liquidity needs through current cash, short-term investments, and operating cash flow[547]. Exposure and Risk Management - The Company has approximately $24.0 billion of net par outstanding for certain U.K. exposures as of September 30, 2024[362]. - The Company's direct insurance exposure to Eastern Europe is approximately $234 million, with $216 million in net par exposure to Poland and $18 million to Hungary, all rated investment grade[413]. - The Company's direct insurance exposure to the Middle East is approximately $68 million, which may increase to about $105 million if all unfunded commitments are ultimately funded, also rated investment grade[414]. - The total expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs primarily relates to trusts established as part of the 2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions[447]. - The economic loss development for U.S. public finance exposures in Q3 2024 was $23 million, mainly attributable to certain healthcare exposures[453]. - The economic loss development for non-U.S. public finance exposures in Q3 2024 was $46 million, primarily attributable to certain U.K. regulated utilities[453]. - The net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for structured finance as of September 30, 2024, is $36 million, with a significant decrease from previous periods[449]. - Defaulted Puerto Rico exposures total $377 million, with a resolved amount of $153 million and non-defaulting exposures of $77 million, leading to a total exposure of $607 million[523]. - The total par outstanding for resolved Puerto Rico exposures is $228 million, while the total exposure amounts to $851 million[523]. - The scheduled amortization for defaulted Puerto Rico exposures is projected to be $531 million, with significant amounts due in 2025[527]. Corporate Division Performance - The Corporate Division reported total revenues of $4 million in Q3 2024, down from $259 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to the gain on the sale of asset management subsidiaries being consistent at $255 million[467]. - Total expenses in the Corporate Division decreased from $57 million in Q3 2023 to $37 million in Q3 2024, driven by lower transaction-related expenses[469]. - The effect of consolidating Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities (FG VIEs) resulted in a net income loss attributable to AGL of $7 million in Q3 2024, compared to a loss of $8 million in Q3 2023[476]. - Fair value losses on FG VIEs amounted to $7 million in Q3 2024, while fair value gains on Consolidated Investment Vehicles (CIVs) were $21 million[476]. - The Corporate Division's adjusted operating income (loss) was $(29) million in Q3 2024, compared to $155 million in Q3 2023, indicating a significant decline[467]. Shareholder and Equity Information - Adjusted operating shareholders' equity attributable to AGL as of September 2024 is $5,728 million, with a per share value of $113.96, compared to $5,990 million and $106.54 per share as of December 2023[510]. - The adjusted book value is reported at $8,582 million, translating to $166.47 per share, an increase from $8,765 million and $155.92 per share in December 2023[510]. - The total deferred acquisition costs are $172 million, which will be expensed in future accounting periods[510]. - The company reported unrealized losses on the investment portfolio amounting to $(211) million, impacting the adjusted operating shareholders' equity negatively[510].

Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty for Q3 2024 was $171 million, compared to $157 million in Q3 2023, representing an increase of 8.9%[4]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2024 was $130 million, down from $206 million in Q3 2023, reflecting a decrease of 37%[4]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share increased to $3.17 in Q3 2024 from $2.60 in Q3 2023, an increase of 22%[4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for Q3 2024 was 12.1%, up from 11.9% in Q3 2023[4]. - Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $171 million, compared to $157 million for the same period in 2023[7]. - Adjusted operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $130 million, down from $206 million in the same period of 2023[10]. - Net income attributable to AGL for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $358 million, a decrease of 51.6% from $739 million in 2023[117]. - Net income attributable to AGL for the latest quarter was $358 million, compared to $739 million in the previous quarter, reflecting a decrease of approximately 51.5%[119]. Revenue and Premiums - Gross written premiums (GWP) increased to $61 million in Q3 2024 from $40 million in Q3 2023, marking a growth of 52.5%[4]. - Net earned premiums for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased to $97 million from $95 million in the same period of 2023, while net investment income decreased to $82 million from $100 million[7]. - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were $716 million, down from $1,046 million in the same period in 2023[7]. - Total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024, amounted to $269 million, with net earned premiums contributing $98 million and net investment income contributing $82 million[17]. - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2023, were $1,046 million, with net earned premiums contributing $261 million and net investment income contributing $270 million[23]. - Total gross debt service written for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $34,095 million, a decrease of 32.4% from $50,402 million in 2023[118]. Assets and Equity - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, were $12,291 million, a decrease from $12,539 million as of December 31, 2023[9]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. as of September 30, 2024, is $5,728 million, up from $5,713 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - Adjusted book value as of September 30, 2024, was $8,582 million, down from $8,765 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share increased to $111.09 from $101.63 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 14.4%[117]. - The adjusted operating shareholders' equity was $5,875 million, down from $5,990 million in the previous quarter[122]. Investment Performance - The company experienced unrealized losses on its investment portfolio of $(211) million for the quarter, compared to $(400) million in the previous quarter[16]. - The annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields for fixed maturity securities was $258 million, with a pre-tax book yield of 4.09%[29]. - Net investment income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $247 million, down from $365 million in 2023, representing a decline of 32.3%[117]. - The company reported foreign exchange gains of $1 million during the quarter, contributing to the overall revenue[17]. - The company reported foreign exchange gains of $42 million, compared to losses of $(110) million in the previous quarter[119]. Business Segments and Growth - The insurance segment reported adjusted operating income of $162 million in Q3 2024, compared to $59 million in Q3 2023[4]. - The company anticipates continued growth in gross written premiums and new business production in the upcoming quarters[3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in non-U.S. public finance, which has shown substantial growth in recent quarters[47]. - The U.S. structured finance segment generated $1,245 million in gross par written for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $1,101 million in the same period of 2023, a growth of 13.1%[50]. Claims and Losses - The total expected present value of net expected loss to be expensed is $252 million, with future accretion of $(76) million, leading to a total expected future loss and LAE of $176 million[63]. - The total net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for U.S. public finance is $238 million as of September 30, 2024[57]. - The loss and LAE (benefit) for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was reported at $(54) million, indicating a significant change from the previous period[21]. Market Exposure and Risk Management - The company has not provided insurance for Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities in the primary market since 2008, indicating a strategic shift in focus[143]. - The company categorizes transactions rated below B- as CCC, indicating a focus on risk assessment in their internal rating approach[100]. - The company uses risk-free rates for discounting expected losses, which are based on probability-weighted scenarios[92]. Other Financial Metrics - Adjusted operating income for the period was a loss of $8 million, compared to a loss of $10 million previously[114]. - The provision for income taxes was a benefit of $2 million, while noncontrolling interests contributed $12 million[114]. - The company emphasizes the importance of adjusted operating income for evaluating financial results in comparison with consensus analyst estimates[156].

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty reported quarterly earnings of $2.42 per share, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 per share, although down from $3.42 per share a year ago, indicating a 70.42% earnings surprise [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - The company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] - Assured Guaranty posted revenues of $204 million for the quarter ended September 2024, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.99%, compared to $201 million in the same quarter last year [2] - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Assured Guaranty shares have increased approximately 17% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 25.7% [3] - The company's earnings outlook will be crucial for future stock performance, with current consensus EPS estimates at $1.48 for the coming quarter and $6.30 for the current fiscal year [4][7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Multi line is currently in the top 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable industry outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact stock performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty (AGO) presents a significant investment opportunity as it trades at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value, with strong potential for returns for investors [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2, AGO reported adjusted operating income of $80 million, or $1.44 per share, with adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share at $109.88 and adjusted book value per share at $161.65 [2] - The company achieved $155 million in present value of new business production (PVP) on $132 million of Gross Written Premium (GWP), marking the second-best direct GWP and best direct PVP since 2009 [2] - The first half PVP of $218 million is the highest since 2009, excluding a large portfolio assumption in 2018 [2] Shareholder Value and Buybacks - Since the start of the repurchase program in 2013, AGO has repurchased 148 million shares for $5.2 billion, representing 76% of total shares outstanding as of January 1, 2013 [1] - In Q2, AGO repurchased $152 million worth of shares and paid $17 million in dividends, contributing to a 15% increase in adjusted operating shareholders' equity over the past year [2] - The company is authorized to purchase an additional $275 million of its common shares [1] Market Position and Risk Management - AGO holds a 58% market share of primary-market insured par sold, with below investment grade exposure at only 2.2%, one of the lowest levels in its history [2] - The company has effectively managed risks associated with past crises, including the Puerto Rico default, and is nearing resolution on related litigation [1][2] - Current concerns are primarily related to hospital systems facing cost pressures, but credit impairment is expected to be minimal due to the critical nature of these institutions [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue growing its book value per share metrics through ongoing buybacks and retained earnings, with a target price of approximately $90 per share, representing a potential upside [2] - The favorable ruling in the Puerto Rico case may further reduce risks and enhance the company's valuation [2] - As the insured portfolio grows and excess capital is utilized for buybacks, return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to expand [2]