HAMILTON, Bermuda--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) today declared a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per common share, an increase of 12% from the quarterly dividend of $0.34 per common share that was declared on November 5, 2025. The dividend is payable on March 20, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 6, 2026. Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO), Bermuda-based holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty provides credi. ...

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty (Europe) SA has issued a €175 million debt service reserve guarantee for XpFibre Groupe, marking its second transaction with the company [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The €175 million DSR guarantee replaces a portion of an existing DSR facility provided by various banks [1] - The transaction was completed on December 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is showing potential for a bullish breakout due to a recent "golden cross" in its moving averages, indicating a key technical support level has been reached [1][2]. Technical Analysis - AGO's 50-day simple moving average has crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, a pattern known as a "golden cross," which typically signals a bullish trend [1][2]. - A golden cross consists of three stages: a downtrend that bottoms out, a crossover of the shorter moving average above the longer one, and continued upward momentum in stock prices [3]. Performance Metrics - AGO has experienced an 8.9% rally over the past four weeks, suggesting strong momentum [4]. - The company currently holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, indicating positive market sentiment [4]. Earnings Outlook - AGO's earnings outlook for the current quarter is positive, with one upward revision in earnings estimates over the past 60 days and no downward revisions [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGO has also increased, further supporting the bullish case for the stock [4][6]. Investment Consideration - Investors are encouraged to monitor AGO for potential gains, given its technical indicators and favorable earnings estimate revisions [6].

Core Insights - Assured Guaranty reported third-quarter 2025 results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, leading to a 6.3% increase in share price [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.57, surpassing consensus estimates by 67.2% [2] - Revenue for the quarter was $207 million, which was 12.2% higher than anticipated but represented a 23% decline from the same period last year [2] - Book value per share increased by 9% year-over-year to $121.13, indicating long-term capital growth [2] Market Reaction - Shares closed at $86.90, reflecting a 6.7% increase from the previous close [3] - The stock has shown low volatility, with only three moves greater than 5% in the past year, suggesting that the market views this news as significant [4] - Despite being down 2.9% year-to-date, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $95.47 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also hit a record of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was $91 million of PVP, a 44% increase from Q3 2024 and a 42% increase from Q2 2025 [5] - U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par in Q3 2025, up from $5.4 billion in Q3 2024 [8] - Secondary market U.S. public finance generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by over $50 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the record issuance in the same period of 2024 [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets while diversifying revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - There is a focus on shorter duration structured finance transactions that allow for quicker capital recycling and better return on equity [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the domestic public finance market returning to normal activity levels after a skewed mix in earlier quarters [35] - The company sees significant growth opportunities in both U.S. public finance and global structured finance, particularly in infrastructure and regulatory capital needs [34][36] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million in share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7] - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management is focused on optimizing yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management indicated that Brightline is experiencing typical startup growing pains but remains comfortable with their exposure [24] Question: Opportunities in the current data center CapEx cycle - The company is actively evaluating opportunities in data centers and has executed in new areas like liquid natural gas [27] Question: Pipeline for growing written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [33][34] Question: Positive developments in Puerto Rico and PREPA exposure - Management emphasized the importance of a deal for recognizing the value of reserves and claims related to PREPA [38]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Adjusted operating income for the year-to-date was $6.77 per share, an increase of approximately 17% compared to the same period last year [5] - Adjusted operating income in Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was strong, with $91 million of PVP, which is 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025 [5] - U.S. public finance business produced $152 million of PVP year-to-date, benefiting from record U.S. municipal bond issuance [6] - Secondary market U.S. public finance strategy generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion year-to-date compared to the record issuance during the first nine months of 2024 [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking for strategic opportunities to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets, aiming to diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - The focus on shorter duration structured finance transactions is expected to provide better returns on equity and quicker capital recycling [13][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ability to produce and the expected production levels going forward, citing a return to normal business mix in Q3 2025 [36] - The company sees great opportunities in U.S. public finance and global structured finance, particularly in infrastructure and regulatory capital needs [35][36] Other Important Information - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by greater use of alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][17] - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million for share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management indicated that they aim to optimize yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management acknowledged typical growing pains for Brightline but expressed confidence in their exposure due to being in the senior most section of the capital stack [24] Question: Pipeline for growing written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [34][36]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024, reflecting a modest decline [15][18] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, an increase of approximately 17% compared to the same period last year [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was strong, with $91 million of PVP, which is 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025 [5][8] - U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par in Q3 2025, compared to $5.4 billion in Q3 2024, indicating a significant increase in issuance [8][9] - Secondary market U.S. public finance strategy generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with total primary market insured par volume rising 18% [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking for strategic opportunities to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets, aiming to diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - There is a focus on building the subscription finance business, characterized by shorter duration and renewable transactions, which allows for quicker capital recycling [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the pipeline for growth in written premiums into 2026, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [32][34] - The company is actively evaluating opportunities in data centers and has executed in new areas like liquid natural gas, indicating a proactive approach to market trends [26][34] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million share repurchase, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7][20] - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by alternative investments, which have generated an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management indicated that they work with outside investment managers to optimize yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management acknowledged Brightline's growing pains as a startup but expressed confidence in their exposure due to being in the senior most section of the capital stack [24] Question: Opportunities in the current data center CapEx cycle - Management confirmed they are actively evaluating data center opportunities and have executed in new areas like liquid natural gas [26] Question: Pipeline for growth in written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [32][34] Question: Positive developments in Puerto Rico and PREPA exposure - Management stated that recognition of value in reserves would require a deal, emphasizing their strong position as a creditor [38]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate as of August 2025 was 4.3%, up from 4.1% at the beginning of the year[393]. - The annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.8%, following a decline of 0.6% in Q1 2025[393]. - The inflation rate in the U.S. for the 12-month period ending September 2025 was 3.0%, compared to 2.4% for the same period in 2024[394]. - The U.K. inflation rate for the 12 months through September 2025 was 4.1%, up from 2.6% in the previous year[394]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate from a target range of 5.25%-5.50% to 3.75%-4.00% between September 2024 and October 2025[395]. - The Bank of England's base rate was lowered to 4.00% as of November 6, 2025, in response to easing inflationary pressures[397]. Company Performance - Net income attributable to AGL for Q3 2025 was $105 million, down from $171 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to foreign exchange losses of $23 million compared to gains of $55 million in the prior year[432][437]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million, a decrease from $130 million in Q3 2024, mainly due to lower benefits in loss expense for the U.S. RMBS sector[443]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income attributable to AGL was $384 million, compared to $358 million in the same period of 2024, driven by a fair value gain on credit derivatives of $103 million[438]. - As of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to AGL was $5,658 million, up from $5,495 million at the end of 2024[433]. - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $207 million, down from $269 million in Q3 2024, with net earned premiums at $94 million compared to $97 million[436]. Share Repurchase and Investments - The Company has repurchased 155 million common shares for $5.8 billion since 2013, representing 80% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program[424]. - The Company has agreed to invest an aggregate amount of $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments[422]. - Cumulative share repurchases since 2013 amounted to $5,782 million, with an estimated accretive effect of approximately $65.18 per share in shareholders' equity attributable to AGL[427][428]. - The company redeemed $250 million of its common stock in Q3 2025, receiving $213 million in cash and $37 million in alternative investments[428]. Market Activity - New municipal bonds issued totaled $430.0 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $375.1 billion in the same period of 2024[407]. - The total insured amount for new municipal bonds was $34.2 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an increase from $28.9 billion in the same period of 2024[407]. - The bond insurance market penetration based on par was 7.9% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 7.7% for the same period in 2024[407]. - U.S. public finance GWP in Q3 2025 increased to $77 million from $35 million in Q3 2024, representing a 120% growth[471]. - Total GWP for Q3 2025 was $75 million, up from $61 million in Q3 2024, marking a 23% increase[471]. Financial Metrics - The effective tax rate for Q3 2025 was 15.4%, compared to 19.9% in Q3 2024, reflecting the tax jurisdictions of the company's subsidiaries[436][439]. - The overall pre-tax book yield of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments was 4.80% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 4.10% a year earlier[488]. - The total net par outstanding for the financial guaranty portfolio increased to $274,875 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $261,552 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 5.03%[577]. - The total U.S. public finance exposure reached $212,091 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $201,175 million at the end of 2024, marking an increase of 5.93%[577]. Risk Factors - Assured Guaranty is exposed to risks from geopolitical tensions, including the conflict arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine[381]. - The company anticipates that a recession may increase the likelihood of defaults among obligors whose obligations it guarantees[392]. - The company identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia, with direct insurance exposure to Eastern Europe limited to $210 million in net par outstanding[450]. Operational Changes - The company opened new offices in Australia and Singapore in 2024 to expand its financial guaranty business geographically[409]. - The company is actively monitoring market volatility, which may create new business opportunities despite potential risks[392]. - The company has ongoing strategic transactions with Sound Point Capital Management and Assured Healthcare Partners, which may impact future performance[381]. Loss and Expense Management - The insurance segment's adjusted operating income for nine months 2025 was $389 million, compared to $427 million in nine months 2024, reflecting a decrease in performance[460]. - The company reported a loss and LAE of $38 million in nine months 2025, compared to a benefit of $54 million in nine months 2024[446]. - The economic loss development for U.S. public finance exposures was $51 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, mainly attributable to PREPA and certain healthcare exposures[505]. - The total net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for public finance was $103 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $319 million as of September 30, 2024[500].

Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income reached $336 million, a 17% increase per share compared to the same period in 2024[15] - The company earned $124 million of adjusted operating income in the third quarter, a 6% increase on a per share basis above the third quarter 2024 amount[11] - The alternative investment portfolio generated $112 million of pre-tax adjusted operating income[15] New Business and Capital Management - $25 billion of new business par was insured, the highest amount in the first nine months in a decade[15] - $9 billion of new business par was insured in the third quarter, the largest third-quarter amount in a decade[11, 18] - $194 million of PVP was generated[15, 18] - Over 4 million shares were repurchased at a cost of $369 million, representing nearly 9% of shares outstanding on December 31, 2024[15] Portfolio and Resources - The total investment portfolio plus cash stands at $89 billion[28, 64] - Claims-paying resources are $101 billion, resulting in a net par outstanding to claims-paying resources ratio of 27:1[28] - Net par outstanding is $2749 billion, with U S public finance accounting for $2121 billion, non-U S public finance for $513 billion, and global structured finance for $115 billion[28]

Core Insights - Assured Guaranty reported Q3 CY2025 results that exceeded market revenue expectations, with a revenue of $207 million, although this represents a 23% year-on-year decline [1][2] - The non-GAAP profit was $2.57 per share, which is 67.2% above analysts' consensus estimates [1][2] Financial Performance - Net Premiums Earned were $93 million, slightly above analyst estimates of $92 million, reflecting a 4.1% year-on-year decline [2] - Revenue of $207 million surpassed analyst expectations of $184.5 million, marking a 23% year-on-year decline [2] - Adjusted EPS was $2.57, significantly higher than the expected $1.54, indicating a 67.2% beat [2] - Book Value per Share increased to $121.13, showing a 9% year-on-year growth [2] - Market Capitalization stood at $3.88 billion [2] Company Overview - Assured Guaranty has been providing credit protection products since 2003, covering over $11 trillion in debt service payments [3] - The company guarantees scheduled payments on municipal bonds, infrastructure projects, and structured finance obligations [3] Revenue Growth Challenges - Assured Guaranty has struggled to consistently increase demand, with trailing 12-month revenue of $989 million being close to its revenue five years ago, indicating low business quality [4] - Revenue has declined by 14% annually over the last two years, suggesting suppressed demand [5]