Key Takeaways Cooling inflation and rising consumer spending are lifting confidence in the U.S. economy. Brokers are favoring stocks like BTSG, ALGT, CVI, ALTG and CBRL amid this brightening scenario. A screening strategy using broker ratings, earnings estimate revisions, and valuation picked these stocks.Inflation is showing signs of cooling, while consumer spending is increasing. U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents. This was the four ...

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT) . Shares have added about 10.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since ...

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) reported positive traffic numbers for April 2025, with scheduled traffic increasing by 17.4% compared to April 2024 [1][11] - Despite the increase in traffic, capacity growth outpaced traffic growth, leading to a decline in load factor to 80.3% from 82.4% year-over-year [2][11] Traffic and Capacity - Scheduled traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, rose by 17.4% year-over-year [2][11] - Capacity, measured in available seat miles, increased by 20.5% year-over-year [2][11] - Total departures for scheduled services increased by 18.4% compared to the previous year [3] - The average stage length grew by 2.5% year-over-year [3] Passenger Metrics - Allegiant carried 14.9% more passengers in April 2025 compared to the same month last year [3][11] - System-wide capacity improved by 20.8% year-over-year [3] Fuel Prices - The estimated fuel price per gallon in April 2025 was $2.51 [3] Comparisons with Other Airlines - Ryanair reported an 18.3 million passenger count in April 2025, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase, with a load factor of 93% [5] - Volaris (VLRS) saw a 14.8% increase in passengers, with a load factor decrease to 81.6% [7] - LATAM Airlines (LTM) reported a 9.9% increase in consolidated traffic, with a load factor rise to 83.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company reported a significant increase in passenger traffic and operational metrics for April 2025 compared to April 2024, indicating a strong recovery and growth in demand for air travel [1][2]. Passenger Traffic Results - Scheduled service passengers increased to 1,526,823 in April 2025 from 1,328,010 in April 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.0% [2]. - Revenue passenger miles rose by 17.4%, reaching 1,447,242 thousand miles in April 2025 compared to 1,232,419 thousand miles in April 2024 [2]. - Available seat miles increased by 20.5%, totaling 1,802,989 thousand miles in April 2025, up from 1,495,665 thousand miles in April 2024 [2]. - The load factor for scheduled service was 82.4%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from 80.3% in April 2024 [2]. - Departures decreased by 18.4%, with 9,296 flights in April 2025 compared to 11,010 in April 2024 [2]. - The average stage length was 911 miles, a slight increase of 2.5% from 934 miles in April 2024 [2]. Total System Results - Total system passengers were 1,344,077 in April 2025, down from 1,543,689 in April 2024, marking a decrease of 14.9% [2]. - Total system available seat miles decreased by 20.8%, totaling 1,543,609 thousand miles in April 2025 compared to 1,865,323 thousand miles in April 2024 [2]. - Total system departures also fell by 18.6%, with 9,637 flights in April 2025 compared to 11,433 in April 2024 [2]. - The average stage length for the total system was 907 miles, an increase of 2.6% from 930 miles in April 2024 [2]. Financial Metrics - The estimated average fuel cost per gallon for the system in April 2025 was $2.51 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant (ALGT) is experiencing significant challenges due to rising operating expenses and a deteriorating liquidity position, negatively impacting its financial performance and attractiveness to investors [1]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-quarter earnings has decreased by 72.3% over the past 60 days, with a 54% downward revision for the next year's earnings, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [2]. - Allegiant shares have declined by 40.8% year to date, compared to a 7.3% decline in the industry [3]. Industry and Rank - Allegiant currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), reflecting its poor performance relative to peers [5]. - The industry rank for Allegiant is 149 out of 246, placing it in the bottom 39% of Zacks Industries, which suggests that industry performance significantly influences stock price movements [6]. Operating Expenses - In the first quarter of 2025, Allegiant's operating expenses accounted for 90.7% of total operating revenues, driven by increased labor costs and maintenance expenses [7]. - Labor costs rose by 8.5% year over year, while maintenance and repair expenses increased by 15.1% year over year, further straining profitability [8]. Liquidity Concerns - The current ratio for Allegiant has declined from 1.47 in 2022 to 0.78 in 2023, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet short-term obligations [9].

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company is expanding its network by introducing five new nonstop routes to eight cities, offering low-cost travel options with one-way fares starting as low as $39 [1][2]. Group 1: New Routes - The new route to Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) includes South Bend, IN, starting August 29, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $59 [3]. - New routes to McGhee Tyson Airport (TYS) in Tennessee include Memphis, TN, starting September 4, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $39, and Key West, FL, starting October 3, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $49 [4]. - New routes to Gulf Shores International Airport (GUF) in Alabama include Appleton, WI, starting October 2, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $59, and Des Moines, IA, starting October 3, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $59 [5]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - Allegiant is targeting football fans with limited-time flights to Las Vegas for the NFL season, available on a first-come, first-served basis [6]. - The company anticipates high demand for these specialty flights, which have been popular in previous NFL seasons [7]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Allegiant Travel Company is currently rated Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) in the airline industry, indicating potential challenges in its stock position [7]. - Investors in the Transportation sector may also consider Copa Holdings (CPA) and Ryanair (RYAAY), both rated Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [8].

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel Company announced five new nonstop routes to eight cities, with one-way fares starting as low as $39, aimed at enhancing low-cost travel options for underserved markets [1][2][5] - The airline's business model focuses on connecting small-to-medium sized cities to popular vacation destinations, providing unique travel options not available from other carriers [2][8] - The company is also offering limited-time flights to Las Vegas for NFL games, catering to football fans with convenient travel options [3][4][6] Route Details - New nonstop routes include South Bend, Indiana to Fort Lauderdale, Florida starting August 29, 2025, with fares as low as $59 [2][5] - Additional routes include Memphis, Tennessee to Las Vegas starting September 4, 2025, with fares as low as $39, and Key West, Florida starting October 3, 2025, with fares as low as $49 [5][6] - The airline emphasizes its point-to-point flight model, allowing passengers to spend less time at the airport and more time enjoying their vacations [2][8] Special Promotions - Allegiant is offering specialty flights to Las Vegas for NFL games, which have been popular in previous seasons and are expected to sell out quickly [4][6] - Tickets for all newly announced routes, including the limited-time NFL flights, are now available for purchase [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings, exceeding expectations, with significant growth in operating revenues and passenger revenues despite a decrease in load factor. Financial Performance - First-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding non-recurring items) were $1.81, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54, and up from 57 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1] - Operating revenues reached $699.1 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $690.3 million, and improved by 6.5% year-over-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Passenger revenues, which constituted 88.2% of total revenues, increased by 6.3% year-over-year [2] - Air traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, improved by 10% year-over-year, while capacity, measured in available seat miles (ASMs), grew by 14.4% [2] - The load factor decreased to 80.5% from 83.8% year-over-year, indicating that traffic growth did not keep pace with capacity expansion [2] Cost and Efficiency - Airline operating costs per available seat mile, excluding fuel, fell by 9% year-over-year to 8.07 cents [3] - Average fuel cost per gallon decreased by 12.2% year-over-year to $2.63 [3] - Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat mile declined to 12.29 cents from 13.23 cents a year ago [3] Liquidity and Debt - As of March 31, 2025, total unrestricted cash and investments were $906.3 million, up from $832.8 million at the end of 2024 [4] - Long-term debt and finance lease obligations totaled $1.75 billion, compared to $1.61 billion at the end of 2024 [4] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, scheduled service ASM is expected to increase by 15.5% year-over-year, with total system ASM projected to gain 15% [5] - The operating margin is anticipated to be between 6% and 8%, with adjusted EPS expected to range from 50 cents to $1 [6] - Fuel cost per gallon is projected to be $2.40 [6] Interest and Fleet Projections - Interest expenses for 2025 are forecasted to be between $150 million and $160 million, with capitalized interest between $15 million and $25 million [7] - The company aims to have a fleet size of 126 by the end of Q2 2025, with projections of 123 and 122 by the end of Q3 2025 and 2025, respectively [7] Market Position - Allegiant currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) [8]

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was $699.1 million, a 6.5% increase year-over-year, driven by a 14.2% growth in capacity and an 8.4% increase in passengers[60] - Operating income reached $65.0 million, resulting in an operating margin of 9.3%, with airline-only operating income at $60.9 million and a margin of 9.1%, reflecting a more than five-point improvement from the previous year[60] - The average ancillary fare per passenger was $79.28, up 4.7% year-over-year, supported by the introduction of new ancillary product offerings[60] - Resort and other revenue increased by 27.5% to $30.9 million, with resort occupancy improving to 70.3% compared to 39.2% in Q1 2024[82] - Total system passengers increased by 8.4% to 4,451,306 in Q1 2025 from 4,104,860 in Q1 2024[100] - Operating cash inflows from operating activities were $191.4 million in Q1 2025, up from $167.8 million in Q1 2024, attributed to a $33.0 million increase in net income[110] Cost Management - The airline operating cost per available seat mile (CASM) decreased by 12.6% to 11.14 cents, with CASM excluding fuel down 11.9% to 8.09 cents[84] - Airline operating CASM, excluding fuel and special charges, decreased 9.0% to 8.07¢ from 8.87¢ in Q1 2024, driven by a 14.2% increase in ASMs[85] - Aircraft fuel expense decreased by $3.8 million or 2.2% compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to a 13.9% decrease in average fuel cost per gallon[86] - Salaries and benefits expense increased by $20.9 million or 10.5% compared to Q1 2024, mainly due to a new collective bargaining agreement and a 15.5% increase in total block hours flown[87] - Aircraft fuel expenses accounted for 26.2% of total operating expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2025[118] Fleet and Capacity - The fleet consisted of 127 aircraft as of March 31, 2025, with plans to retire 21 aging airframes by December 2026 to facilitate fleet renewal[58][59] - The company identified over 1,400 incremental domestic nonstop routes for future growth, with 78% currently lacking nonstop service[61] Future Outlook and Risks - The new Navitaire reservation system is expected to restore lost ancillary revenue and generate incremental passenger revenue by the first half of 2026[70] - The company is awaiting U.S. government approval for a commercial alliance with VivaAerobus, which is anticipated to enhance competition and increase nonstop service between the U.S. and Mexico[75][76] - The company has made forward-looking statements regarding future aircraft deliveries and the implementation of a joint alliance with VivaAerobus[113] - Risks include reliance on Boeing for timely aircraft delivery and potential impacts from regulatory reviews[114] - The potential impact of economic conditions on leisure travel is a significant risk factor for the company[114] - The company does not hedge fuel price risk, exposing it to volatility in fuel costs[118] Financial Position - Cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities increased to $906.3 million as of March 31, 2025, from $832.9 million at December 31, 2024[101] - Debt and finance lease obligations decreased from $2.08 billion as of December 31, 2024, to $2.03 billion as of March 31, 2025[107] - Cash used for investing activities was $121.9 million in Q1 2025, compared to $93.6 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to purchases of investment securities[111] - Interest expense increased by $5.6 million or 33.6% compared to Q1 2024, including a $3.4 million loss on debt extinguishment related to the early repayment of the Sunseeker construction loan[97] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $656.8 million of variable-rate debt, with a potential 100 basis point change in interest rates affecting interest expense by approximately $1.6 million[119] Accounting and Compliance - There have been no material changes to critical accounting estimates during the three months ended March 31, 2025[116] - The company is subject to market risks, particularly related to commodity prices such as aircraft fuel[117]

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel reported revenue of $699.07 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 6.5% increase year-over-year, and an EPS of $1.81 compared to $0.57 in the same quarter last year, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates for both revenue and EPS [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $699.07 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $690.25 million, resulting in a surprise of +1.28% [1] - EPS of $1.81 exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.54, delivering a surprise of +17.53% [1] - Total passenger revenue was reported at $616.75 million, compared to the average estimate of $605.58 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +6.4% [4] - Operating Revenues from third-party products were $35.20 million, slightly below the estimated $37.84 million, but still showing a +5.4% change year-over-year [4] - Fixed fee contracts revenue was $16.25 million, significantly lower than the estimated $22.04 million, representing a -13.8% change compared to the previous year [4] Key Metrics - Airline operating expense per ASM (CASM) was reported at 11.14 cents, better than the average estimate of 11.74 cents [4] - Available seat miles (ASMs) were 5.31 billion, exceeding the average estimate of 5.24 billion [4] - Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) were 4.27 billion, slightly below the estimated 4.28 billion [4] - Average fuel cost per gallon was $2.6, matching the average estimate [4] - Load factor was reported at 80.5%, slightly below the average estimate of 80.8% [4] - Airline operating CASM, excluding fuel, was 8.07 cents, outperforming the average estimate of 8.59 cents [4] - Total passenger revenue per ASM (TRASM) was 12.29 cents, slightly above the average estimate of 12.22 cents [4] Stock Performance - Allegiant Travel's shares returned +9.8% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +11.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]