It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT) . Shares have added about 10.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since ...

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) reported positive traffic numbers for April 2025, with scheduled traffic increasing by 17.4% compared to April 2024 [1][11] - Despite the increase in traffic, capacity growth outpaced traffic growth, leading to a decline in load factor to 80.3% from 82.4% year-over-year [2][11] Traffic and Capacity - Scheduled traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, rose by 17.4% year-over-year [2][11] - Capacity, measured in available seat miles, increased by 20.5% year-over-year [2][11] - Total departures for scheduled services increased by 18.4% compared to the previous year [3] - The average stage length grew by 2.5% year-over-year [3] Passenger Metrics - Allegiant carried 14.9% more passengers in April 2025 compared to the same month last year [3][11] - System-wide capacity improved by 20.8% year-over-year [3] Fuel Prices - The estimated fuel price per gallon in April 2025 was $2.51 [3] Comparisons with Other Airlines - Ryanair reported an 18.3 million passenger count in April 2025, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase, with a load factor of 93% [5] - Volaris (VLRS) saw a 14.8% increase in passengers, with a load factor decrease to 81.6% [7] - LATAM Airlines (LTM) reported a 9.9% increase in consolidated traffic, with a load factor rise to 83.4% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company reported a significant increase in passenger traffic and operational metrics for April 2025 compared to April 2024, indicating a strong recovery and growth in demand for air travel [1][2]. Passenger Traffic Results - Scheduled service passengers increased to 1,526,823 in April 2025 from 1,328,010 in April 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.0% [2]. - Revenue passenger miles rose by 17.4%, reaching 1,447,242 thousand miles in April 2025 compared to 1,232,419 thousand miles in April 2024 [2]. - Available seat miles increased by 20.5%, totaling 1,802,989 thousand miles in April 2025, up from 1,495,665 thousand miles in April 2024 [2]. - The load factor for scheduled service was 82.4%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from 80.3% in April 2024 [2]. - Departures decreased by 18.4%, with 9,296 flights in April 2025 compared to 11,010 in April 2024 [2]. - The average stage length was 911 miles, a slight increase of 2.5% from 934 miles in April 2024 [2]. Total System Results - Total system passengers were 1,344,077 in April 2025, down from 1,543,689 in April 2024, marking a decrease of 14.9% [2]. - Total system available seat miles decreased by 20.8%, totaling 1,543,609 thousand miles in April 2025 compared to 1,865,323 thousand miles in April 2024 [2]. - Total system departures also fell by 18.6%, with 9,637 flights in April 2025 compared to 11,433 in April 2024 [2]. - The average stage length for the total system was 907 miles, an increase of 2.6% from 930 miles in April 2024 [2]. Financial Metrics - The estimated average fuel cost per gallon for the system in April 2025 was $2.51 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant (ALGT) is experiencing significant challenges due to rising operating expenses and a deteriorating liquidity position, negatively impacting its financial performance and attractiveness to investors [1]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-quarter earnings has decreased by 72.3% over the past 60 days, with a 54% downward revision for the next year's earnings, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [2]. - Allegiant shares have declined by 40.8% year to date, compared to a 7.3% decline in the industry [3]. Industry and Rank - Allegiant currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), reflecting its poor performance relative to peers [5]. - The industry rank for Allegiant is 149 out of 246, placing it in the bottom 39% of Zacks Industries, which suggests that industry performance significantly influences stock price movements [6]. Operating Expenses - In the first quarter of 2025, Allegiant's operating expenses accounted for 90.7% of total operating revenues, driven by increased labor costs and maintenance expenses [7]. - Labor costs rose by 8.5% year over year, while maintenance and repair expenses increased by 15.1% year over year, further straining profitability [8]. Liquidity Concerns - The current ratio for Allegiant has declined from 1.47 in 2022 to 0.78 in 2023, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet short-term obligations [9].

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company is expanding its network by introducing five new nonstop routes to eight cities, offering low-cost travel options with one-way fares starting as low as $39 [1][2]. Group 1: New Routes - The new route to Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) includes South Bend, IN, starting August 29, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $59 [3]. - New routes to McGhee Tyson Airport (TYS) in Tennessee include Memphis, TN, starting September 4, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $39, and Key West, FL, starting October 3, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $49 [4]. - New routes to Gulf Shores International Airport (GUF) in Alabama include Appleton, WI, starting October 2, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $59, and Des Moines, IA, starting October 3, 2025, with one-way fares as low as $59 [5]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - Allegiant is targeting football fans with limited-time flights to Las Vegas for the NFL season, available on a first-come, first-served basis [6]. - The company anticipates high demand for these specialty flights, which have been popular in previous NFL seasons [7]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Allegiant Travel Company is currently rated Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) in the airline industry, indicating potential challenges in its stock position [7]. - Investors in the Transportation sector may also consider Copa Holdings (CPA) and Ryanair (RYAAY), both rated Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [8].

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel Company announced five new nonstop routes to eight cities, with one-way fares starting as low as $39, aimed at enhancing low-cost travel options for underserved markets [1][2][5] - The airline's business model focuses on connecting small-to-medium sized cities to popular vacation destinations, providing unique travel options not available from other carriers [2][8] - The company is also offering limited-time flights to Las Vegas for NFL games, catering to football fans with convenient travel options [3][4][6] Route Details - New nonstop routes include South Bend, Indiana to Fort Lauderdale, Florida starting August 29, 2025, with fares as low as $59 [2][5] - Additional routes include Memphis, Tennessee to Las Vegas starting September 4, 2025, with fares as low as $39, and Key West, Florida starting October 3, 2025, with fares as low as $49 [5][6] - The airline emphasizes its point-to-point flight model, allowing passengers to spend less time at the airport and more time enjoying their vacations [2][8] Special Promotions - Allegiant is offering specialty flights to Las Vegas for NFL games, which have been popular in previous seasons and are expected to sell out quickly [4][6] - Tickets for all newly announced routes, including the limited-time NFL flights, are now available for purchase [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings, exceeding expectations, with significant growth in operating revenues and passenger revenues despite a decrease in load factor. Financial Performance - First-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding non-recurring items) were $1.81, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54, and up from 57 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1] - Operating revenues reached $699.1 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $690.3 million, and improved by 6.5% year-over-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Passenger revenues, which constituted 88.2% of total revenues, increased by 6.3% year-over-year [2] - Air traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, improved by 10% year-over-year, while capacity, measured in available seat miles (ASMs), grew by 14.4% [2] - The load factor decreased to 80.5% from 83.8% year-over-year, indicating that traffic growth did not keep pace with capacity expansion [2] Cost and Efficiency - Airline operating costs per available seat mile, excluding fuel, fell by 9% year-over-year to 8.07 cents [3] - Average fuel cost per gallon decreased by 12.2% year-over-year to $2.63 [3] - Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat mile declined to 12.29 cents from 13.23 cents a year ago [3] Liquidity and Debt - As of March 31, 2025, total unrestricted cash and investments were $906.3 million, up from $832.8 million at the end of 2024 [4] - Long-term debt and finance lease obligations totaled $1.75 billion, compared to $1.61 billion at the end of 2024 [4] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, scheduled service ASM is expected to increase by 15.5% year-over-year, with total system ASM projected to gain 15% [5] - The operating margin is anticipated to be between 6% and 8%, with adjusted EPS expected to range from 50 cents to $1 [6] - Fuel cost per gallon is projected to be $2.40 [6] Interest and Fleet Projections - Interest expenses for 2025 are forecasted to be between $150 million and $160 million, with capitalized interest between $15 million and $25 million [7] - The company aims to have a fleet size of 126 by the end of Q2 2025, with projections of 123 and 122 by the end of Q3 2025 and 2025, respectively [7] Market Position - Allegiant currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) [8]

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was $699.1 million, a 6.5% increase year-over-year, driven by a 14.2% growth in capacity and an 8.4% increase in passengers[60] - Operating income reached $65.0 million, resulting in an operating margin of 9.3%, with airline-only operating income at $60.9 million and a margin of 9.1%, reflecting a more than five-point improvement from the previous year[60] - The average ancillary fare per passenger was $79.28, up 4.7% year-over-year, supported by the introduction of new ancillary product offerings[60] - Resort and other revenue increased by 27.5% to $30.9 million, with resort occupancy improving to 70.3% compared to 39.2% in Q1 2024[82] - Total system passengers increased by 8.4% to 4,451,306 in Q1 2025 from 4,104,860 in Q1 2024[100] - Operating cash inflows from operating activities were $191.4 million in Q1 2025, up from $167.8 million in Q1 2024, attributed to a $33.0 million increase in net income[110] Cost Management - The airline operating cost per available seat mile (CASM) decreased by 12.6% to 11.14 cents, with CASM excluding fuel down 11.9% to 8.09 cents[84] - Airline operating CASM, excluding fuel and special charges, decreased 9.0% to 8.07¢ from 8.87¢ in Q1 2024, driven by a 14.2% increase in ASMs[85] - Aircraft fuel expense decreased by $3.8 million or 2.2% compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to a 13.9% decrease in average fuel cost per gallon[86] - Salaries and benefits expense increased by $20.9 million or 10.5% compared to Q1 2024, mainly due to a new collective bargaining agreement and a 15.5% increase in total block hours flown[87] - Aircraft fuel expenses accounted for 26.2% of total operating expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2025[118] Fleet and Capacity - The fleet consisted of 127 aircraft as of March 31, 2025, with plans to retire 21 aging airframes by December 2026 to facilitate fleet renewal[58][59] - The company identified over 1,400 incremental domestic nonstop routes for future growth, with 78% currently lacking nonstop service[61] Future Outlook and Risks - The new Navitaire reservation system is expected to restore lost ancillary revenue and generate incremental passenger revenue by the first half of 2026[70] - The company is awaiting U.S. government approval for a commercial alliance with VivaAerobus, which is anticipated to enhance competition and increase nonstop service between the U.S. and Mexico[75][76] - The company has made forward-looking statements regarding future aircraft deliveries and the implementation of a joint alliance with VivaAerobus[113] - Risks include reliance on Boeing for timely aircraft delivery and potential impacts from regulatory reviews[114] - The potential impact of economic conditions on leisure travel is a significant risk factor for the company[114] - The company does not hedge fuel price risk, exposing it to volatility in fuel costs[118] Financial Position - Cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities increased to $906.3 million as of March 31, 2025, from $832.9 million at December 31, 2024[101] - Debt and finance lease obligations decreased from $2.08 billion as of December 31, 2024, to $2.03 billion as of March 31, 2025[107] - Cash used for investing activities was $121.9 million in Q1 2025, compared to $93.6 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to purchases of investment securities[111] - Interest expense increased by $5.6 million or 33.6% compared to Q1 2024, including a $3.4 million loss on debt extinguishment related to the early repayment of the Sunseeker construction loan[97] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $656.8 million of variable-rate debt, with a potential 100 basis point change in interest rates affecting interest expense by approximately $1.6 million[119] Accounting and Compliance - There have been no material changes to critical accounting estimates during the three months ended March 31, 2025[116] - The company is subject to market risks, particularly related to commodity prices such as aircraft fuel[117]

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel reported revenue of $699.07 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 6.5% increase year-over-year, and an EPS of $1.81 compared to $0.57 in the same quarter last year, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates for both revenue and EPS [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $699.07 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $690.25 million, resulting in a surprise of +1.28% [1] - EPS of $1.81 exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.54, delivering a surprise of +17.53% [1] - Total passenger revenue was reported at $616.75 million, compared to the average estimate of $605.58 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +6.4% [4] - Operating Revenues from third-party products were $35.20 million, slightly below the estimated $37.84 million, but still showing a +5.4% change year-over-year [4] - Fixed fee contracts revenue was $16.25 million, significantly lower than the estimated $22.04 million, representing a -13.8% change compared to the previous year [4] Key Metrics - Airline operating expense per ASM (CASM) was reported at 11.14 cents, better than the average estimate of 11.74 cents [4] - Available seat miles (ASMs) were 5.31 billion, exceeding the average estimate of 5.24 billion [4] - Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) were 4.27 billion, slightly below the estimated 4.28 billion [4] - Average fuel cost per gallon was $2.6, matching the average estimate [4] - Load factor was reported at 80.5%, slightly below the average estimate of 80.8% [4] - Airline operating CASM, excluding fuel, was 8.07 cents, outperforming the average estimate of 8.59 cents [4] - Total passenger revenue per ASM (TRASM) was 12.29 cents, slightly above the average estimate of 12.22 cents [4] Stock Performance - Allegiant Travel's shares returned +9.8% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +11.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Allegiant Travel reported quarterly earnings of $1.81 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54 per share, and showing a significant increase from $0.57 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 17.53% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $699.07 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.28% and increasing from $656.41 million year-over-year [2] - Allegiant Travel has outperformed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates four times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing approximately 46.4% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 3.9% for the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.27 on revenues of $721.29 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.27 on revenues of $2.75 billion [7] - The Transportation - Airline industry, to which Allegiant Travel belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 39% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8]