Summary of Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) Conference Call - December 09, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG) - **Industry**: Asset Management - **Key Focus**: Transition towards alternative investment capabilities, which now represent over 50% of EBITDA [2][4][6] Core Points and Arguments Business Evolution and Strategy - AMG has successfully pivoted towards alternative investments, with alternatives now comprising approximately 55% of EBITDA, aiming for two-thirds in the coming years [2][4][6][8] - The growth in alternatives is driven by both organic growth and strategic acquisitions, with a focus on independent firms that align with AMG's investment strategy [5][6][7] - AMG has made four new investments and one strategic partnership in alternatives this year, contributing to the growth of its affiliate base [7][8] Acquisition Strategy - AMG's acquisition strategy focuses on smaller deals, typically with an enterprise value between $250 million and $1 billion, investing 20%-60% of the economics of the business [15][16][17] - The company emphasizes maintaining the independence of its affiliates while providing strategic support, including business development and product innovation [13][14] Organic Growth - Liquid alternatives have seen a significant turnaround, with AQR being a major contributor, managing approximately $45 billion in assets [18][19][21] - AMG has observed positive flows in liquid alternatives, with total alternative flows exceeding $50 billion, two-thirds of which are from liquid alts [21][22] - AQR's tax-aware strategies are highlighted as a durable trend, addressing the needs of high-net-worth individuals and wealth advisors [22][25][26] Private Markets - AMG's private markets strategy is focused on specialized areas, with Pantheon being a key affiliate [33][34] - The company aims to leverage its scale to provide unique access to differentiated return streams in private markets [35][36] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - AMG has reduced its share count by approximately 40% over the last five years, indicating a strong capital return strategy through share repurchases [42][44] - The company anticipates continued share repurchases, viewing its current share price as attractive [47][48] - Performance fees have averaged around $150 million annually, with potential for growth as the business evolves [51][52] Outlook for 2026 - AMG expects continued momentum in alternative flows, with higher fees and margins contributing positively to earnings [56][57] - The company is not yet ready to provide specific guidance for 2026 but acknowledges a step function increase in flows and net effects from new investments [58][59] Additional Important Insights - AMG's unique position as a one-stop shop for various differentiated return streams allows it to capitalize on the trend of institutional LPs consolidating their relationships with fewer managers [35][36] - The company is exploring new product offerings in private markets, including structured credit and multi-asset products [39][40] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting AMG's strategic focus on alternatives, acquisition strategy, organic growth, financial performance, and outlook for the future.

Core Insights - The asset and investment management sector has shown impressive performance in 2025, driven by strong market rebounds, record inflows, and a broad expansion in global assets under management (AUM) [1] Market Performance - Significant equity market volatility has led to increased trading activities, positively impacting companies like BlackRock, Invesco, and Affiliated Managers Group [2] - Elevated volatility has pushed investors towards active management and tactical allocation products, resulting in increased flows into active ETFs, private credit vehicles, and multi-asset strategies [4] Asset Management Growth - Global AUM has grown sharply due to market appreciation and substantial net inflows, particularly from the Asia-Pacific region and high-net-worth channels [4][5] - Demand for alternative investments remains strong, with private credit funds and diversified alternatives attracting institutional and retail interest [5] Company-Specific Insights BlackRock - As of September 30, 2025, BlackRock's total AUM reached a record $13.46 trillion, with a CAGR of 9.2% over the past five years [11] - The company expects continued momentum in AUM growth due to its focus on the iShares unit and active equity business [12] - BlackRock's revenues are projected to grow by 17.1% year-over-year in 2026, with earnings expected to increase by 12.9% [15] Invesco - Invesco's AUM was $2.1 trillion as of September 30, 2025, with a CAGR of 8.5% over the past five years [16] - The company is focusing on improving operating efficiency and has achieved $200 million in annualized net savings from the OppenheimerFunds acquisition [18] - Invesco's revenues and earnings are expected to grow by 14.5% and 32.2% year-over-year in 2026, respectively [20] Affiliated Managers Group - Affiliated Managers had total AUM of $803.6 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a shift towards alternatives reversing previous net outflows [23][24] - The company has been pivoting towards private markets and liquid alternatives, which are expected to support cash flows [25] - AMG's revenues and earnings are projected to grow by 8% and 18.9% year-over-year in 2026, respectively [27]

Core Viewpoint - Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) has shown a positive performance with a 5.9% increase in shares since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 economic earnings were reported at $6.10 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.83, and reflecting a 26.6% increase year-over-year [3]. - Economic net income reached $179.7 million, up 17.3% from the previous year, surpassing the estimate of $166.8 million [4]. - Total revenues for the quarter increased by 2.2% year-over-year to $528 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $521.1 million [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $250.9 million, a 17.2% increase, exceeding the projected $233.3 million [5]. Assets Under Management (AUM) - As of September 30, 2025, total AUM was $803.6 billion, reflecting a 10.3% increase, surpassing the estimate of $780.8 billion [6]. - Average AUM totaled $786.9 billion, up 10.6% year-over-year, with net client cash outflows of $2.8 billion during the quarter [6]. Capital and Liquidity - The company had $476.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, down from $950 million at the end of 2024 [7]. - Total debt decreased to $2.37 billion from $2.62 billion as of December 31, 2024, while stockholders' equity slightly decreased to $3.34 billion [7]. Share Repurchase Activity - During Q3, Affiliated Managers repurchased shares worth $77 million [8]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates adjusted EBITDA in the range of $325-$370 million for Q4 2025, based on current AUM levels and expected net performance fees of $75-$120 million [9]. - Economic net income (controlling interest) is projected between $234-$267 million, with economic EPS expected to range from $8.10 to $9.26 [11]. Estimate Revisions - There has been an upward trend in estimates revisions, with the consensus estimate shifting by 7.88% in the past month [12]. Investment Strategy Scores - Affiliated Managers has an average Growth Score of C, a Momentum Score of A, and a Value Score of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of A [13]. Industry Context - Affiliated Managers operates within the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry, where competitor Invesco reported a 4.3% gain over the past month and revenues of $1.19 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +7.4% [15].

Core Viewpoint - Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) has experienced significant stock performance, reaching a 52-week high, driven by strong quarterly results and a strategic pivot towards alternative investments [1][8][27]. Group 1: Stock Performance - AMG shares hit a new 52-week high of $276.24, closing at $266.16, with a year-to-date increase of 43.9%, contrasting with a 16.9% decline in the industry [1]. - The stock has consistently performed better than peers such as Janus Henderson Group plc and SEI Investments Company [1]. Group 2: Quarterly Performance - AMG reported economic earnings per share of $6.10, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.83, marking a 26.6% year-over-year increase [2]. - The company anticipates net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be between $189 million and $223 million, with economic earnings projected between $8.10 and $9.26 per share [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - AMG has shifted focus towards private markets and liquid alternatives since 2021, resulting in strong client inflows and offsetting weaknesses in traditional asset categories [4]. - New partnerships announced this year are expected to add approximately $24 billion to AUM across private markets and liquid alternatives [4][5]. Group 4: Alternatives and AUM - As of September 30, 2025, alternatives made up nearly 44% of total AUM and contributed about 55% of AMG's earnings [6]. - The company aims to increase earnings from alternatives to over 66% in the coming years, enhancing its ability to manage market volatility [6]. Group 5: Financial Position - AMG has sufficient liquidity to support its expansion plans, bolstered by divestitures and a recent sale of its interest in Comvest Partners' private credit business for $285 million [9][10]. - As of September 30, 2025, AMG's total debt was $2.37 billion, with cash and cash equivalents of $476.1 million, and it has a $1.25 billion revolving credit facility [17]. Group 6: Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The company expects performance fees in 2025 to range between $110 million and $150 million, with revenue growth estimates of 1.9% and 8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [14][23]. - Analysts project an 18.7% increase in earnings for 2025 and an 18.9% growth for 2026, with upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past month [23]. Group 7: Shareholder Returns - AMG prioritizes share repurchases, with plans to buy back at least $500 million worth of shares in 2025, having repurchased $350 million in the first nine months of 2025 [19][18]. - The company has a history of share repurchase authorizations, with nearly 3.4 million shares remaining available for repurchase as of September 30, 2025 [18].

Company Performance - Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) shares have increased by 12.5% over the past month and reached a new 52-week high of $271.48 [1] - The stock has gained 44.7% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the Zacks Finance sector's 14.3% increase and the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry's decline of 17.3% [1] Earnings and Revenue - AMG has consistently exceeded earnings consensus estimates, reporting EPS of $6.1 against a consensus of $5.83 in its last earnings report [2] - For the current fiscal year, AMG is projected to achieve earnings of $25.36 per share with revenues of $2.08 billion, reflecting an 18.73% increase in EPS and a 1.78% increase in revenues [3] - The next fiscal year forecasts earnings of $30.15 per share on revenues of $2.24 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of 18.91% for EPS and 7.95% for revenues [3] Valuation Metrics - AMG currently trades at 10.6 times the current fiscal year EPS estimates, below the peer industry average of 12.1 times [7] - The stock's trailing cash flow basis is at 10.9 times, compared to the peer group's average of 11.5 times, and has a PEG ratio of 0.59, positioning it favorably for value investors [7] Zacks Rank and Style Scores - AMG holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) due to rising earnings estimates [8] - The stock has a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of C, and a Momentum Score of B, resulting in a combined VGM Score of B [6][9] Industry Comparison - Patria Investments Limited (PAX) is a notable peer with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of A, indicating a competitive position within the industry [10] - PAX is expected to post earnings of $1.49 per share on revenues of $342.25 million for the current fiscal year, having beaten consensus estimates by 15.38% last quarter [11] - The Financial - Investment Management industry is performing well, ranking in the top 28% of all industries, suggesting favorable conditions for both AMG and PAX [12]

Core Insights - The article compares Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) and Ares Management (ARES) to identify which company presents a better investment opportunity for undervalued stocks [1] Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - AMG has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision trend compared to ARES, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - The improving analyst outlook for AMG suggests a positive earnings estimate revision activity [3][7] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - AMG's forward P/E ratio is 10.22, significantly lower than ARES's forward P/E of 29.04, indicating that AMG may be undervalued [5] - AMG has a PEG ratio of 0.57, while ARES has a PEG ratio of 1.14, further suggesting that AMG is a better value option based on expected earnings growth [5] - AMG's P/B ratio is 1.71, compared to ARES's P/B of 6.74, reinforcing AMG's position as a more attractive investment based on market value versus book value [6] - These metrics contribute to AMG's Value grade of A and ARES's Value grade of C [6]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Investment Management industry is experiencing growth driven by asset growth, digital transformation, evolving investment vehicles, deeper personalization, and strategic scale [1] - Investment managers, also known as asset managers, manage various financial investments for clients, providing diversification and reducing volatility impacts [3] Key Trends - Continued asset inflows are expected to drive AUM growth, with equity markets performing well and institutional interest increasing [4] - There is a notable rise in inflows into alternative investments, including index funds, private credit funds, and ETFs, alongside the growth of tokenized assets [5] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are being utilized by firms to expand scale, cut costs, and enhance product diversification [6][7] - Elevated expenses due to regulatory compliance and technology upgrades are anticipated to impact profits, although investments in AI and digital platforms may improve margins in the long run [9][10] Industry Performance - The Zacks Investment Management industry ranks 58, placing it in the top 24% of 243 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [11][12] - The industry's earnings estimates have been revised upward by 1.9% since April 2025, reflecting growing analyst confidence [13] Comparative Analysis - Over the past two years, the industry has underperformed the S&P 500 Index, gaining 33.9% compared to the S&P 500's 52% increase [15] - The industry's trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio is 3.35X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.55X, indicating a discount compared to the broader market [18][19] Company Highlights - **Ameriprise Financial (AMP)**: As of September 30, 2025, AMP's total AUM was $1.66 trillion, with a CAGR of 5.9% in net revenues over the last five years [27][28]. The company has been restructuring to improve profitability and has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [31] - **Invesco (IVZ)**: IVZ's AUM reached $2.1 trillion as of September 30, 2025, with a CAGR of 8.5% over the last five years [34]. The company has undertaken initiatives to improve efficiency and has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [38] - **Affiliated Managers Group (AMG)**: AMG's total AUM was $803.6 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a recent shift towards private markets and liquid alternatives to counter revenue challenges [41][43]. The company also holds a Zacks Rank of 1 [45]

Core Insights - Steady earnings growth is valued by company executives and analysts as a sign of profitability, but earnings acceleration has a stronger impact on stock prices, with leading stocks often experiencing this acceleration before price increases [1][3] - QuantumScape Corporation (QS), Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB), and Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) are currently demonstrating strong earnings acceleration [1][8] Earnings Acceleration Definition - Earnings acceleration refers to the incremental growth in a company's earnings per share (EPS), specifically when the quarter-over-quarter earnings growth rate increases over a specified time frame [2] Importance of Earnings Acceleration - Unlike earnings growth, which may already be reflected in stock prices, earnings acceleration helps identify stocks that have not yet attracted investor attention, leading to potential price rallies [3] - An increasing percentage of earnings growth indicates a fundamentally sound company, while a sideways or decelerating growth percentage may signal consolidation or a downturn [4] Screening Parameters - The screening process involves identifying stocks where the last two quarter-over-quarter EPS growth rates exceed previous periods' growth rates, with projected EPS growth rates for the upcoming quarter expected to surpass prior periods [5][6][7] - Additional criteria include a current price of at least $5 and an average 20-day trading volume of 50,000 or more to ensure adequate liquidity [7] Top Stocks Identified - The screening narrowed down approximately 7,735 stocks to nine, highlighting QS, SLAB, and AMG as top candidates showing strong EPS acceleration [8] - QuantumScape focuses on solid-state lithium-metal batteries for electric vehicles, with an expected earnings growth rate of 21.3% for the current year [9] - Silicon Laboratories specializes in analog-intensive mixed-signal solutions, with an expected earnings growth rate of 152.3% for the current year [10] - Affiliated Managers provides investment management services, with an expected earnings growth rate of 17.7% for the current year [11]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) - AMG currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting it is positioned for potential outperformance [3] Price Performance - AMG shares have increased by 8.95% over the past week, significantly outperforming the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry, which rose by only 0.15% [5] - Over the past month, AMG's price change is 10.8%, compared to the industry's mere 0.04% [5] - In the last quarter, AMG shares rose by 18.66%, and over the past year, they increased by 38.41%, while the S&P 500 only moved 4.53% and 13.83%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - AMG's average 20-day trading volume is 293,917 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, five earnings estimates for AMG have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $24.26 to $25.13 [9] - For the next fiscal year, five estimates have also moved upwards without any downward revisions [9] Conclusion - Given the strong momentum indicators and positive earnings outlook, AMG is recommended as a stock to consider for near-term investment opportunities [11]

Group 1 - AMG announced an adjustment to the conversion rate of its 5.15% junior convertible trust preferred securities due 2037, increasing the conversion rate from 0.2558 to 0.2582 common shares per $50.00 junior convertible security, resulting in an adjusted conversion price of $193.6483 per common share [1] - The adjustment is in accordance with the indenture governing the conversion of the junior convertible securities and is a result of quarterly cash dividends paid by AMG on common shares since Q4 2019 [1] - The next quarterly cash dividend has an ex-dividend date of November 13, 2025, and is scheduled to be paid on November 28, 2025 [1] Group 2 - AMG is a strategic partner to leading independent investment management firms globally, focusing on generating long-term value through investments in high-quality independent partner-owned firms [2] - As of September 30, 2025, AMG's aggregate assets under management were approximately $804 billion, covering a diverse range of investment strategies including private markets and liquid alternatives [2]