Core Viewpoint - Amplitude Inc. (NASDAQ:AMPL) is recognized as a promising small-cap tech stock, with recent upgrades from Morgan Stanley and Baird indicating positive market sentiment and growth potential [1][3]. Group 1: Analyst Upgrades - Morgan Stanley upgraded Amplitude to Overweight from Equal Weight, raising its price target to $16 from $14, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects [1]. - Baird also increased its price target for Amplitude to $15 from $14 while maintaining an Outperform rating, following insights from recent management meetings [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - The firm believes Amplitude is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for digital product user behavior data, particularly due to the influence of generative AI on mobile and web application development [2]. - Amplitude's shares are considered to trade at a reasonable valuation, lacking the seat-based model overhang that affects other companies in the sector, which suggests further upside potential [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Amplitude Inc. provides a digital analytics platform that analyzes customer behavior both in the US and internationally, positioning itself as a key player in the analytics space [4].

Core Viewpoint - Amplitude is showing signs of momentum and potential growth, particularly with improvements in its fundamentals and product offerings, which could lead to a stock surge in 2026 [3]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Amplitude's revenue increased by 16% to $347 million, while remaining performance obligations rose by 37% to $391.9 million, indicating longer customer contracts [4]. - Wall Street analysts project a modest revenue growth of 14% for 2026, but the company has the potential to exceed these expectations given its recent GAAP revenue growth of 18% in the third quarter [8]. Product Development - Amplitude has expanded its product portfolio with new features such as AI visibility and web experimentation, enhancing its value proposition to customers [5]. - The company has launched several AI agents to help customers gain insights into product usage, which is expected to drive further growth [2]. Market Position - Amplitude is recognized as a leader in product analytics, receiving accolades from Forrester Wave and G2 for its performance in digital analytics [6]. - Currently, 27% of the Fortune 500 companies are customers of Amplitude, providing a solid customer base for future revenue growth [5]. Valuation Metrics - Amplitude is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 4, which is considered attractive for a small-cap cloud software company with accelerating growth [7]. - The company is operating close to break-even on an adjusted basis, which is typical for the software sector [7].

We recently compiled a list of the 12 Cheap Small-Cap Stocks to Invest In Before the Next Breakout. The third stock on our list of best small-cap stocks is Amplitude, Inc. TheFly reported on January 15 that Morgan Stanley upgraded AMPL from Equal Weight to Overweight and raised its price target to $16 from $14. The firm expects AMPL to benefit from increased volumes of digital product user behavior data as generative AI accelerates the development of mobile and web applications. Additionally, Morgan Stanl ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Amplitude, Inc. on r/Valueinvesting by OneOneCap. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AMPL. Amplitude, Inc.'s share was trading at $9.95 as of January 16th. AMPL’s forward P/E was 60.24 according to Yahoo Finance. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Gets 20% Boost on Expected Business Updates Charts on the computer Amplitude, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a digital analytics platform that analyzes customer behavior in the United States and intern ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Application Software, specifically focusing on Software as a Service (SaaS) in North America - **2025 Performance**: Application SaaS underperformed due to muted revenue growth, limited upward estimate revisions, and multiple compression driven by AI-related concerns. The valuation discount on application SaaS relative to broader software increased to approximately 37% from 20% a year ago [3][7][21]. Key Insights - **AI Concerns**: Peak AI fears were noted in 2025, leading to a shift in investor sentiment. Companies emphasized competitive advantages such as proprietary data and large installed bases but struggled to improve investor confidence [3][23]. - **Bull Case for 2026**: The bull case hinges on application software becoming the primary delivery mechanism for AI capabilities, potentially expanding the total addressable market and improving growth trajectories. However, the lack of clear growth inflection in 2025 left many vendors perceived as disrupted by AI [3][23][35]. - **CIO Survey Insights**: A survey indicated that 19% of CIOs operationalizing AI/ML technologies view application vendors as primary partners, an increase from 13% in the previous quarter. This suggests a shift in perception towards application software as a vehicle for AI functionalities [26][29]. Investment Recommendations - **Selective Approach**: A selective investment strategy is recommended, favoring companies with strong positioning in the "AI Success Framework" and idiosyncratic growth stories. Preferred companies include HUBS, KVYO, WIX, AMPL, BL, DSGX, and NAVN [2][7][52]. - **Price Target Adjustments**: Price targets for several companies were updated, reflecting changes in growth outlooks and market conditions. For example, HUBS was adjusted to $577, while KVYO was set at $42 [5][54]. Risks and Considerations - **AI Risks**: The report outlines three core areas of AI-related risks: DIY risk, start-up risk, and seat-based model risk. Evidence suggests that fears regarding these risks may be overstated, but ongoing monitoring is necessary [24][26][27]. - **Cyclical Headwinds**: The optimization cycle that began in 2022 is largely digested, with stabilization in key performance indicators like ARR and billings growth. However, broad-based positive spending revisions remain absent, necessitating a cautious approach [35][36]. - **2026 Spending Growth**: Software is expected to see modest growth in spending, projected at 3.8%, compared to declines in hardware and communications sectors. This indicates a relatively healthier positioning for software in IT spending plans [43][44]. Conclusion - **Outlook for 2026**: The outlook for application SaaS in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with potential for improved sentiment as AI risks are reassessed and growth trajectories begin to stabilize. However, the absence of broad-based positive revisions in spending necessitates a selective investment approach [2][35][52].

Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing renewed investor interest in 2026, driven by positive remarks from Nvidia's CEO at the CES Conference [1][2] - A significant majority of AI investors, specifically nine out of ten, plan to maintain or increase their holdings in AI stocks this year, with younger investors showing the most confidence [2] Group 1: AI Infrastructure vs. Semiconductors - The AI sector is not uniform; it consists of various categories, including AI infrastructure and semiconductors, which are experiencing different market dynamics [3] - AI infrastructure companies, such as CoreWeave and Nebius, face higher risks due to substantial capital expenditures on data centers before monetization, with Oracle also facing cash flow challenges [4][6] - Semiconductor stocks are currently favored due to established demand for AI chips, which is outpacing supply, and they do not face the same depreciation risks as infrastructure stocks [7][8] Group 2: Emergence of Software Stocks - While chipmakers have been the primary beneficiaries of the AI boom, the need for software to utilize the built infrastructure suggests that software stocks will also gain prominence [9] - Palantir has emerged as a leading AI software company, showing consistent revenue growth and improved operating margins since 2023 [10] - OpenAI and Anthropic are generating significant revenue, with OpenAI projected to exceed a run rate of $20 billion and Anthropic targeting $9 billion, indicating strong market demand for AI software [11] - Smaller software companies like Appian, Amplitude, and Figma are positioned to capitalize on the AI trend, with potential for significant upside if they successfully integrate AI into their offerings [12][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are evaluating Jamf Holding (JAMF) and Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) to determine which stock offers better value for investment at the current time [1] Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - JAMF has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while AMPL has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3] - The Zacks Rank emphasizes stocks with recent positive revisions to earnings estimates, suggesting that JAMF has an improving earnings outlook [3] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - JAMF has a forward P/E ratio of 13.14, significantly lower than AMPL's forward P/E of 103.93 [5] - JAMF's PEG ratio is 0.76, indicating it is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth, while AMPL's PEG ratio is 2.50 [5] - JAMF's P/B ratio is 2.21, compared to AMPL's P/B of 5.93, further highlighting JAMF's relative undervaluation [6] Group 3: Value Grades - Based on valuation metrics, JAMF has earned a Value grade of B, while AMPL has received a Value grade of F [6] - The combination of Zacks Rank and Style Scores indicates that JAMF is a more attractive option for value investors compared to AMPL [6]

Industry Overview - The AI revolution presents numerous investment opportunities and potential for significant economic transformation and productivity enhancements [1] - Companies of all sizes are heavily investing in AI research and infrastructure to remain competitive in the global technology landscape [1][2] Institutional Support - Strong institutional support is anticipated to accelerate the development and adoption of AI technologies, creating a stable environment for AI-focused businesses [2] Investment Recommendations - For investors with $2,000, three AI stocks are recommended for long-term holding [3] Company Analysis: Alphabet - Alphabet has a comprehensive AI ecosystem, including proprietary AI chips (TPUs), foundational models (Gemini), and a robust cloud platform, which provide competitive advantages [5][6] - TPUs are specifically designed for AI tasks, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs in AI training and inference [6] - Alphabet's ability to develop its own silicon allows for greater control over AI development and positions it as a significant player in the AI hardware market [7] - The company utilizes user interaction data from its platforms to refine AI models, boosting its core revenue-generating business, Google Search [9][10] - Alphabet reported a 33% increase in net income in Q3, demonstrating strong financial health and ongoing investment in AI infrastructure [11] Company Analysis: SoundHound - SoundHound specializes in voice and conversational AI solutions, enabling businesses to integrate customized voice assistants [12] - The company has diversified its client base beyond the automotive sector into industries like restaurants and customer service [13][14] - SoundHound's Q3 2025 revenue reached $42 million, a 68% increase year-over-year, although it has not yet posted an annual profit [15] - The company has a significant contractual backlog of approximately $1.2 billion, indicating potential future growth [16] - SoundHound offers customizable solutions that allow businesses to maintain brand control and data privacy, differentiating it from larger tech competitors [17] Company Analysis: Amplitude - Amplitude is a digital analytics platform that leverages AI to enhance user experience and drive revenue growth [18] - The company reported Q3 2025 results with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $347 million, up 16% year-over-year, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $391.9 million, up 37% year-over-year [20] - Amplitude employs a freemium software-as-a-service model, acquiring customers through a free tier and scaling revenue as they adopt more features [21] - The company has over 4,500 customers, with a 15% year-over-year increase in customers generating $100,000 or more in ARR [22] - Although still posting a GAAP net loss, Amplitude is cash-flow positive and anticipates achieving non-GAAP operating income for the full year 2025 [23]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market is expected to close 2025 with a 15.7% increase in the S&P 500, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains [1] - There are mixed opinions on the market's direction in 2026, with some investors concerned about an AI bubble while others believe the gains will extend beyond the "Magnificent Seven" stocks [2] Group 2: Sweetgreen - Sweetgreen has faced significant challenges in 2025, with its stock down 77% year-to-date due to declining comparable sales and widening losses [4] - The company is taking steps to stabilize its finances, including selling its subsidiary Spyce and reducing new store openings from 37 in 2025 to 15-20 in 2026 [5] - Despite its struggles, Sweetgreen may see a recovery due to easier sales comparisons in 2026, with expected comparable sales declines of 7.7%-8.5% after a 6% gain in 2024 [7][9] - Sweetgreen maintains a quality product with average unit volumes of $2.8 million per store, comparable to industry leaders [8] - A 100% gain in Sweetgreen's stock next year is considered achievable, although it would still be down over 50% from the end of 2024 [9] Group 3: Amplitude - Amplitude, a cloud software company specializing in digital product analytics, is positioned for a strong recovery in 2026 [10] - The company has made strategic acquisitions and is enhancing its platform with AI capabilities, which is expected to drive growth [11] - In Q3, Amplitude reported a 16% increase in annual recurring revenue to $347 million and an 18% increase in revenue to $88.6 million, indicating growing customer confidence [13] - Amplitude's market cap is $1.4 billion, and it is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 4.3, suggesting significant long-term potential if growth accelerates [14]

Group 1 - The company has experienced a reacceleration in growth, achieving an 18% increase, indicating a positive demand environment [1] - The founders recognized that many companies in the analytics ecosystem were not providing a complete platform, leading to efforts to consolidate various functionalities [2] - The company has been developing a range of products around analytics, starting with experimentation and expanding to activation, web analytics, guides, surveys, and session replay [3]