Core Viewpoint - Amerisafe (AMSF) shares have increased by approximately 4.3% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this positive trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Group 1: Earnings Report and Estimates - Recent estimates for Amerisafe have trended upward over the past month, indicating a positive outlook for the company [2][4] - The stock has received a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [4] Group 2: VGM Scores - Amerisafe currently holds a poor Growth Score of F, a Momentum Score of D, and a Value Score of D, placing it in the bottom 40% for the value investment strategy [3] - The overall aggregate VGM Score for Amerisafe is F, which is a critical metric for investors not focused on a single strategy [3]

Premiums and Business Performance - The company reported gross premiums written of $294.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, an increase from $285.4 million in 2023 and $276.1 million in 2022[44]. - The voluntary business accounted for 97.2% of total gross premiums written in 2024, with a policy renewal rate of 94.2%[36][44]. - In 2024, 14.7% of gross premiums written were derived from Florida, followed by Georgia at 10.3% and Pennsylvania at 7.2%[47]. - Independent agencies accounted for 98.4% of voluntary in-force premiums as of December 31, 2024, with no single agency exceeding 2.0%[49]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had over 9,300 voluntary business policyholders, with the ten largest accounting for only 2.3% of in-force premiums[36]. - The company derived 3.9% of its voluntary in-force premiums from employers engaged in the maritime industry for the year ended December 31, 2024[158]. - In 2024, 85.4% of gross premiums written were derived from policyholders in the construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, maritime, and telecommunications industries[186]. Underwriting and Risk Management - The company has a disciplined underwriting approach, with a focus on maintaining adequate rate levels and improving risk selection and pricing[27]. - The underwriting strategy focuses on hazardous industries in profitable states, with specific guidelines excluding certain high-risk activities[50]. - The company’s expense ratio was 29.6% in 2024, which is believed to be lower than that of competitors, enhancing the opportunity for underwriting profit[26]. - The company’s proactive claims management practices resulted in an average of 44 open indemnity claims per field case manager as of December 31, 2024, significantly lower than the industry average[25]. - The company conducts annual premium audits for all voluntary business policyholders to verify payroll expenses and job classifications[62]. - The company stopped accepting direct assignments and only participates in pooling arrangements to fulfill its residual market obligations beginning in 2023[155]. Claims and Reserves - As of December 31, 2024, the company's ultimate liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses is estimated at $538.6 million, including $13.0 million for mandatory pooling arrangements[79]. - The gross unpaid loss, DCC, and AO reserves decreased to $651.3 million in 2024 from $673.9 million in 2023, primarily due to favorable development from prior accident years[87]. - The average unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses per open claim increased to $171,487 in 2024 from $168,372 in 2023[87]. - The total incurred related to the current accident year for 2024 was $192.2 million, compared to $189.7 million in 2023[86]. - The company recognized $34.9 million of favorable development for prior accident years in 2024[87]. - The company’s loss reserves are based on estimates and may be inadequate to cover actual losses, with substantial judgment required to determine the relevance of historical experience[187]. Investment Portfolio - As of December 31, 2024, the carrying value of the investment portfolio was $832.8 million, while the fair value was $819.5 million[94]. - The majority of fixed maturity securities are classified as "held-to-maturity," with changes in non-credit related unrecognized gains and losses not reflected until realized[97]. - The pre-tax investment yield for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was 3.4% per annum[99]. - The average composite rating of the investment portfolio, excluding equity holdings, was "AA-" as of December 31, 2024[104]. - The company limits holdings in equity securities to the lesser of 10% of the investment portfolio or 30% of shareholders' equity, on a fair value basis[97]. - The company periodically reviews its investment portfolio with the risk committee of the board of directors for compliance with the investment policy[96]. Reinsurance - The company has a reinsurance treaty program providing coverage for each loss occurrence up to $100.0 million, with a retention of $2.0 million for each occurrence[109][111]. - Total amounts recoverable from reinsurers as of December 31, 2024, were $117.3 million, net of an allowance for credit losses of $300, resulting in $117.0 million recoverable[116]. - The company evaluates the financial condition of reinsurers and monitors credit risk concentrations continuously to minimize exposure to significant losses[108]. - The company has 26 reinsurers participating in its 2025 reinsurance program, with most rated "A" or better by A.M. Best[113][114]. - The company remains liable to policyholders even if it is unable to recover amounts due from reinsurers, exposing it to credit risk[210]. Regulatory and Compliance - The company is subject to periodic examinations by state insurance departments, with recent examinations covering calendar years 2018 through 2021[151]. - The company is required to participate in residual market programs, which provide workers' compensation insurance to employers unable to obtain coverage[154]. - The company is subject to extensive regulation, which may limit its ability to obtain premium rate increases or take actions to increase profitability[195]. - The company must maintain minimum capital and surplus of $2.0 million under Nebraska law and $5.0 million under Texas law[165]. Employee and Community Engagement - The company has established an endowment to provide scholarships to dependents of employees and community members, emphasizing its commitment to education[131]. - The company invests in employee professional development, including insurance certification programs and leadership training[133]. - The company has launched a new committee to focus on charitable giving and corporate volunteering efforts, enhancing community engagement[130]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 362 full-time employees, with an average employee tenure of 10.0 years and 61% of the workforce being female[132].

AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMSF) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 27, 2025 10:30 AM ET Company Participants Kathryn Shirley - Chief Administrative Officer Janelle Frost - President & Chief Executive Officer Andy Omiridis - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Mark Hughes - Truist Matt Carletti - Citizens JMP Bob Farnam - Janney Operator Good day, and welcome to the AMERISAFE fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AMERISAFE reported net income of $13.2 million or $0.69 per diluted share for Q4 2024, down from $19.2 million or $1 per diluted share in Q4 2023 [13] - For the full year, net income was $55.4 million compared to $62.1 million in 2023, while net operating income decreased to $48.4 million from $55.9 million [14] - The combined ratio improved to 88.7% with a return on equity (ROE) of 20.2% [8][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross premiums written increased by 3.9% in Q4 and 3.1% for the full year, with voluntary premiums rising by 8.5% in Q4 and 4.6% for the year [6] - The enforced policy count grew by 9.6% for the year, indicating strong premium retention and new business production [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The accident year loss ratio remained steady at 71%, consistent with the prior year, with favorable development from prior accident years amounting to $9.7 million in Q4 and $34.9 million for the full year [10] - The investment portfolio's net investment income decreased by 14.4% to $6.9 million for Q4 and by 6.8% to $29.2 million for the full year [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on top-line growth while maintaining consistent underwriting margins, emphasizing the importance of agent relationships and a sales-driven culture [6][8] - AMERISAFE aims to identify and ensure profitable high-risk, high-hazard risks to offset broader market challenges [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a competitive landscape and maintain strong policy retention [11][79] - The outlook for the construction industry remains positive, with expectations of continued payroll growth and opportunities for business [74][79] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors approved a 5.4% increase in the regular dividend to $0.39 per share [11] - The company reported a book value per share of $13.51 after paying a special dividend, reflecting an 11.6% decrease from year-end 2023 [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide context for the 9.6% policy count growth? - Management clarified that the 9.6% growth was for the entire year, with a 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter [24][28] Question: How has the average policy size trended? - The average policy size for 2024 was slightly lower than in 2023, with a noted decrease in average wages in Q4 [34] Question: What impact did renewal rates have on the top line? - Renewal rates were strong, with a policy retention rate of 94.1% on a policy basis and 88% on a premium basis [37] Question: How are claims from prior years developing? - Favorable development from prior accident years was noted, with significant contributions from 2022 and earlier years [39] Question: What is the outlook for the construction industry? - Management believes the construction industry remains strong, with payroll growth and opportunities for business despite potential economic challenges [74][79] Question: How many large claims were there in 2024? - The company reported 18 claims over a million dollars, which is consistent with the five-year average [81] Question: Any updates on medical inflation and reimbursement rates? - No significant changes were noted, but home health costs remain a focus due to their impact on larger claims [86] Question: What is the outlook for audit premiums? - Management expects audit premiums to remain positive in 2025, despite potential deceleration in year-over-year comparisons [102] Question: Have competitors become more aggressive in the workers' comp market? - The market remains competitive, but AMERISAFE is prepared to handle competitors entering the high hazard space [104]

Core Viewpoint - AMERISAFE, Inc. reported mixed financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, with adjusted earnings per share beating estimates but overall revenues and net income declining year over year [1][3]. Group 1: Fourth Quarter Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was 67 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.7%, but down 9.5% from the previous year [1]. - Operating revenues decreased by 0.5% year over year to $73.5 million, missing the consensus mark by 4.9% [1]. - Net premiums earned rose by 1.2% year over year to $66.5 million but fell short of estimates by 4.6% [4]. - Net investment income dropped 14.4% year over year to $6.9 million due to reduced investable assets [4]. - Total expenses increased to $57.3 million in Q4, up from $56.2 million a year ago [5]. - The net combined ratio worsened by 60 basis points year over year to 86.1%, although it was better than the consensus estimate of 90.95% [5]. Group 2: Full-Year Performance - Full-year operating revenues were $300.1 million, slightly up from $299 million the previous year [3]. - Total expenses rose to $240 million from $229.5 million in the prior year [3]. - Operating earnings per share decreased to $2.53 from $2.91 year over year [3]. - Net income fell to $55.4 million from $62.1 million a year ago [3]. - Pre-tax underwriting profit declined by 18.6% year over year to $30.6 million [3]. Group 3: Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents increased to $44 million from $38.7 million at the end of 2023 [6]. - Total assets decreased to $1.16 billion from $1.23 billion at the end of 2023 [6]. - Shareholders' equity fell to $257.3 million from $292.5 million at the end of 2023 [6]. - Book value per share increased by 11.6% to $13.51 as of December 31, 2024 [6]. Group 4: Return on Equity and Capital Deployment - Return on average equity decreased by 590 basis points year over year to 18.5% in Q4 [7]. - A quarterly cash dividend of 39 cents per share was announced, reflecting a 5.4% increase, to be paid on March 21, 2025 [8].

Group 1 - Amerisafe reported quarterly earnings of $0.67 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.60 per share, but down from $0.74 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 11.67% [1] - The company posted revenues of $73.51 million for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.90%, compared to $73.88 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Amerisafe has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2 - The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary on the earnings call and the sustainability of earnings expectations [3][4] - Amerisafe shares have underperformed the market, losing about 0.1% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 1.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.56 on revenues of $76.94 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.18 on revenues of $314.81 million [7] Group 3 - The Zacks Industry Rank for Insurance - Accident and Health is currently in the top 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5] - The current estimate revisions trend for Amerisafe is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, suggesting it will perform in line with the market in the near future [6]

Financial Performance - AMERISAFE reported a net income of $55.4 million for the year 2024, with a return on equity of 20.2%[1][3]. - The company experienced a 31.2% decline in net income for Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, dropping to $13.2 million[3][8]. - Operating net income for the full year 2024 decreased by 13.5% to $48.4 million compared to 2023[3][8]. - Net income for Q4 2024 was $13,194,000, down from $19,181,000 in Q4 2023, reflecting a decrease of 31.1%[19]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2024 was $0.69, compared to $1.00 in Q4 2023, a decline of 31.0%[19]. Premiums and Revenues - Net premiums earned increased by 1.3% year-over-year to $270.6 million for the full year 2024[3][4]. - Gross premiums written rose by 3.1% year-over-year to $294.1 million for the full year 2024[4][5]. - Gross premiums written for Q4 2024 were $62,702,000, an increase from $60,324,000 in Q4 2023, representing a growth of 2.3%[19]. - Total revenues for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, were $309,043,000, slightly up from $306,853,000 in 2023, indicating a growth of 0.4%[19]. Investment Income - The company’s net investment income fell by 6.8% to $29.2 million for the full year 2024[6][7]. - Net investment income decreased to $6,914,000 in Q4 2024 from $8,077,000 in Q4 2023, a decline of 14.4%[19]. - The company reported net unrealized gains on equity securities of $9,508,000 for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1,228,000 in 2023, an increase of 676.5%[19]. Expenses and Ratios - The net combined ratio for the year was 88.7%, up from 85.9% in 2023, indicating increased underwriting costs[3][4]. - The underwriting expense ratio increased to 29.6% for the full year 2024, compared to 29.3% in 2023[5][4]. - Total expenses for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, were $239,987,000, up from $229,476,000 in 2023, an increase of 4.6%[19]. Assets and Equity - The company's total assets decreased to $1,157,791,000 as of December 31, 2024, from $1,229,162,000 in 2023, a reduction of 5.8%[21]. - Reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses were $651,309,000 as of December 31, 2024, down from $673,994,000 in 2023, a decrease of 3.4%[21]. - Shareholders' equity decreased to $257,341,000 as of December 31, 2024, from $292,451,000 in 2023, a decline of 12.0%[21]. Dividends and Tax - AMERISAFE's board of directors announced a 5.4% increase in the quarterly dividend, raising it from $0.37 to $0.39 per share[7][8]. - The effective tax rate for the full year 2024 remained unchanged at 19.7%[5][7].

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF) . Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. AMERISAFE’s Q3 Earnings Beat on Higher Premiums A ...

Specialty insurer, AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF ), has faced declining core profits in each year since 2019, as a result of the after effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, the business has continued to generate more and more profits for every dollar invested into theAn economics graduate with a passion for financial history; I apply my knowledge to markets in an effort to hopelessly predict trends and spot value. All opinions are my own and should not be taken seriously.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no ...

AMERISAFE, Inc.'s (AMSF) shares have gained 8.1% since it reported third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 23. The quarterly earnings benefited from improved net premiums earned and fee and other income. However, declining net investment income and an elevated operating expense level, resulting from an increase in loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, partially offset the positives. AMSF reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 58 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6%. H ...