玻璃：产销出现回落 继续弱势看待 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-17 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：震荡偏弱 震荡偏弱 p 风险提示 1、宏观政策（上行风险） 2、年前下游休息（下行风险） p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货整体弱势运行，周线报收中阴线。上周主力合约持仓创新高，宏观政策预期不足背景下，盘面更 贴合基本面，表现为偏弱走势。供给方面，产线无变动情况，日熔量持平。沙河产线停产效果减弱，贸易商补库动作放缓，叠 加期现商平仓释放货源，地区价格逐步走低。湖北依然还是累库情况严重，中下游观望情绪较浓。华东华南降库速度一般，实 际成交还是以低价去库为主。需求方面，厂家产销有所转弱，接近年底，下游悲观情绪较浓，加工厂订单仍是进一步恶化。纯 碱方面，近期交易煤炭价格上涨带动成本上升的逻辑，但考虑到短期内对供给量影响不大，且下游浮法、光伏厂需求稳定，仍 然空头思路对待，纯碱01关注1250~1260。 后市展望：年末中下游补货情绪消沉，需求有继续走弱的可能，加上库存相对高位 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the acceleration of AI integration, weak consumer spending, and rising costs are driving companies to cut expenditures and adjust their workforce structures, leading to significant layoffs in the U.S. job market [1][4][5] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs of 153,000 employees, a staggering increase of 183% month-over-month, marking the highest monthly total since 2003 and a 175% increase compared to the same month last year [1][3] - Year-to-date, approximately 1.1 million layoffs have been announced, representing a 65% increase from the previous year, making it the largest year for layoffs since the pandemic began [1][3] Group 2 - The technology sector is identified as the most affected industry, with 33,300 layoffs in October, nearly six times the number in September, primarily due to the impact of AI integration and automation [3][4] - Other sectors experiencing layoffs include consumer goods, with 3,400 layoffs, and non-profit organizations, which have seen a staggering 419% increase in layoffs this year due to government shutdowns [3] - The five industries with the highest cumulative layoffs this year are government, technology, warehousing, retail, and services, collectively accounting for over 70% of total layoffs [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current wave of layoffs is closely linked to the accelerated application of AI technology, which is reshaping workforce demand, particularly in the technology and media sectors [4][5] - The labor market is experiencing a longer re-employment cycle for laid-off workers, with reduced job supply and extended job search periods, indicating a weakening momentum for job growth [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the combination of AI penetration, cooling consumer demand, and fiscal uncertainties is prompting companies to adopt defensive measures, potentially delaying economic recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic white cardboard market is experiencing a new round of price increases, with several paper companies announcing a price hike of 200 yuan/ton effective November 1, 2025, driven by rising costs, seasonal demand, and delayed new capacity releases [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase Announcement - Multiple paper companies, including Bohui Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, have issued price increase notices, raising the price of white cardboard products by 200 yuan/ton [1][2]. - APP (China) also announced a price increase for all products produced by its subsidiaries, indicating a widespread trend among paper manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The price hike is primarily driven by three factors: continuous cost increases nearing the breakeven point for companies, the arrival of the traditional demand peak season ("Golden September and Silver October"), and delays in the release of new production capacity [1][2]. - Rising prices of raw materials such as waste paper and coal have significantly increased operational costs, leading to a divergence between current product prices and their actual value [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Movements - The average market price for white cardboard in Q3 was 3981.78 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.56% decrease from the previous quarter and a 9.32% year-on-year decline [3]. - The lowest market price was recorded at 3930 yuan/ton in late August, with a recovery to 3999 yuan/ton by the end of September, and a further increase to 4054 yuan/ton by October 23, marking a 1.38% rise since the end of September [3]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand and Supply Adjustments - The traditional consumption peak in September and October has led to a rigid increase in orders, particularly in the packaging sector, driven by the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [4]. - The overall inventory in the industry has decreased to a low level, and demand is expected to grow by 5.80% in Q4 [4]. - New production capacity releases have been adjusted, with a significant line in South China successfully launched, while another planned line by Nine Dragons Paper has faced delays, easing supply pressure [4]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The price of white cardboard is expected to rise further in October, with an overall average price forecasted to reach 4182 yuan/ton in Q4, representing a 5.02% increase [4].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to market uncertainties caused by geopolitical factors and intensified domestic competition [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 8.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.64% [2]. - The net profit for the same period was -204 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 274.96% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was -221 million yuan, down 348.89% year-on-year [2]. - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 2.737 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.29% compared to the same quarter last year [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was -135 million yuan, a decline of 227.45% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the third quarter was -141 million yuan, down 252.93% year-on-year [3]. Operational Challenges - The decline in revenue and profit was attributed to market uncertainties stemming from geopolitical shocks, leading to reduced sales in the third quarter [4]. - Increased competition in the domestic market and changes in the international political and economic landscape contributed to the sales decline and idle production capacity, resulting in higher costs [4]. - The company's overall net profit margin decreased, and profitability did not meet expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - JD Wetherspoons' share price declined by 4.2% due to rising cost warnings overshadowing strong sales performance in challenging market conditions [3] Financial Performance - For the 52 weeks ending 27 July, Wetherspoons reported a 4.5% increase in headline sales to £2.1 billion, despite operating six fewer pubs compared to the previous financial year [4] - Like-for-like sales rose by 5.1% year-on-year [4] - Underlying pre-tax profit increased by 10.1% to £81.4 million, while underlying operating profit rose by 4.9% to £146.4 million [4] - Free cash flow surged by 71.5% year-on-year to £56.6 million [4] Cost Warnings - Wetherspoons anticipates that higher National Insurance contributions and an increased National Living Wage will add £60 million to its annual cost base [5] - Increased energy costs are expected to contribute an additional £7 million in expenses [5] - The Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) tax will result in costs of £2.4 million this financial year, up from £800,000 in financial 2025 [5][6] Market Position and Outlook - Sales in the nine weeks to 28 September were up by 3.2% on a like-for-like basis, continuing to outperform the broader market [7] - August like-for-like sales improved by 3.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 0.5% rise reported for the wider pub industry [7] - Wetherspoons has outperformed the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker for 36 consecutive months [7] - The company plans to open approximately 15 managed pubs and the same number of franchised sites in financial 2026 [7] Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that Wetherspoons' results reflect resilience in a cost-of-living climate, positioning it as a budget-friendly option [8] - Despite rising labor and energy costs, Wetherspoons has managed to grow profits faster than revenue, indicating a resilient business model [8] - However, concerns over rising costs have tempered enthusiasm for the company's improved sales figures [8]

Group 1 - In September, U.S. employers announced layoffs of 54,064, a decrease of 37% from August and a 26% drop from the same month last year [1] - Year-to-date layoffs reached 946,426, the highest since the pandemic in 2020, and the fifth highest in the company's 36-year history [1] - Year-to-date layoffs increased by 55% compared to the same period last year and are 24% higher than the total for 2024 [1] Group 2 - The services sector announced the most layoffs in September, totaling 6,290, a significant rise from 1,862 in August and 2,996 in September 2024 [1] - Year-to-date layoffs in the services sector reached 61,590, reflecting a 64% increase year-on-year [1] - The energy sector reported 5,807 layoffs in September, bringing the year-to-date total to 14,811 [1] Group 3 - Major reasons for layoffs include DOGE behavior, market and economic conditions, and technological updates, with 293,753 layoffs attributed to DOGE behavior and 208,227 to market conditions [2] - Employers plan to add 204,939 new positions this year, a 58% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to fewer seasonal hiring plans [2] - The number of seasonal hiring plans tracked last month was 100,800, significantly lower than 401,850 at the beginning of October 2024 [2]

Core Insights - In the second quarter, 40% of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ireland reported growth, marking the highest level in over two years [1] - The latest "All-Island Business Monitor" surveyed over 750 business managers, revealing that more than half of SMEs remained stable, with only 7% reporting a decline [1] - SME confidence is stable with signs of moderate growth, but rising costs and tightening profit margins are testing resilience, with 60% of businesses citing costs as the biggest obstacle [1] Cost and Economic Challenges - Over one-third of businesses reported cost increases of over 10% in areas such as wages, energy, and insurance over the past two years [1] - One-fifth of businesses indicated that global political and trade uncertainties are a concern for the second quarter of 2025 [1] - Ten percent of businesses reported feeling the impact of tariffs [1] Strategic Insights - Martin Robinson, Strategic Director of InterTradeIreland, noted that resilience and moderate growth characterize the current situation, but ongoing cost and profit margin pressures are stressing businesses [1] - The Minister for Enterprise, Burke, emphasized that SMEs are the "backbone of our economy" and expressed commitment to supporting their growth and resilience [1]

Group 1 - The UK manufacturing sector's improvement over the past three months has reversed in August, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48 in July to 47, marking 11 consecutive months of contraction [1] - Domestic and overseas market demand is declining at the fastest rate in nearly two years, as indicated by the August PMI data [1] - The total order volume for UK manufacturing in August fell below July levels and significantly below long-term averages, with export orders also declining more than in July [1] Group 2 - Input cost pressures for UK manufacturers are rising, with the input cost price index increasing from 57.0 in July to 57.7 in August due to higher minimum wage and national insurance tax rates [2] - Despite rising input costs, non-food retail prices in the UK are shrinking, making it difficult for manufacturers to pass on these costs to consumers, as non-food prices fell by 0.8% year-on-year in August [2] - The output price index for manufacturers decreased from 55.6 to 53.7, indicating that manufacturers are absorbing additional costs rather than raising prices [2] Group 3 - The UK manufacturing sector is facing a dual challenge with insufficient domestic market demand and rising costs, with no signs of relief in sight [3] - Domestic market demand is weak due to persistent inflation, exemplified by a 14% year-on-year drop in domestic car sales in July [3] - Exports to the US have also significantly declined, with a £700 million drop in goods exports in July, representing a 14.5% decrease, the lowest level since February 2022 [3] Group 4 - The UK government's tax increases have exacerbated cost pressures in the manufacturing and service sectors without alleviating fiscal pressures [4] - The outlook for UK manufacturing remains challenging due to weak demand, trade friction, and increased policy uncertainty [4] - The upcoming autumn budget is seen as a critical moment for boosting business confidence, with calls for certainty in corporate tax and support for industrial and infrastructure strategies [4]

Core Insights - Meituan and JD.com released their Q2 2025 financial reports, highlighting intense competition in the delivery market and the need for strategic adjustments in response to these challenges [1] Meituan Financial Performance - Meituan's Q2 revenue was approximately 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but operating profit plummeted by 98% and adjusted net profit fell by 89% [3] - The significant decline in profit was attributed to "irrational competition" starting in the quarter, primarily due to increased competition from JD.com and Alibaba in the food delivery sector [3] - Sales costs rose by 27.0% year-on-year, with sales and marketing expenses increasing by 51.8% to 22.519 billion yuan, driven by higher rider subsidies and expansion in grocery retail and overseas operations [3] - Core local business revenue grew by 7.7%, but operating profit dropped by 75.6%, indicating severe pressure on profitability [4] - New business revenue increased by 22.8%, but losses expanded to 1.9 billion yuan due to significant investments in overseas expansion [4] JD.com Financial Performance - JD.com's Q2 revenue reached 356.7 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase compared to Q2 2024, showcasing strong revenue growth [4] - However, net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion yuan, down 50.8% from 12.6 billion yuan in the same period last year, attributed to increased strategic investments in new businesses, particularly in food delivery [4] - JD.com's food delivery business saw a dramatic revenue increase of 199%, with daily order volume exceeding 25 million and coverage expanding to 350 cities [6] - Marketing expenses surged by 127.6% to 27 billion yuan, primarily for food delivery subsidies and promotions [6] - New business revenue grew by 199% to 13.852 billion yuan, but operating losses escalated from 0.695 billion yuan to 14.777 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of -106.7% [6] Industry Implications - The financial reports from Meituan and JD.com reveal a highly competitive food delivery market, rising costs, and challenges in profitability, presenting both risks and opportunities for delivery companies [7] - Increased competition may lead to lower delivery fees and pressure on delivery companies to reduce costs, potentially squeezing profit margins [7] - However, the expansion of Meituan and JD.com's food delivery services could result in more delivery orders, allowing companies to optimize processes and achieve economies of scale [7] - Delivery companies can leverage increased business volume to negotiate better terms with platforms and explore value-added services to diversify revenue streams [7] Strategic Recommendations - The financial results from Meituan and JD.com serve as a wake-up call for delivery companies, emphasizing the need to closely monitor industry trends and adjust business strategies accordingly [9] - Companies should seek to identify opportunities within the crisis and adapt to the competitive landscape to maintain a strong market position [9]

Core Viewpoint - Jiuxing Holdings (01836) experienced a decline of over 6% following the release of its 2025 interim results, with shares trading at HKD 15.75 and a transaction volume of HKD 37.73 million [1] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of USD 775 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.66% [1] - The profit attributable to the parent company was USD 78.63 million, a decrease of 14.48% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 9.5 cents, and the company proposed an interim dividend of 52 HK cents per share [1] Challenges Faced - The company faced short-term challenges in profitability due to two main factors: 1. Customers accelerated orders to meet the increased demand from the European summer tourism season ahead of the Paris Olympics, resulting in a high base effect with approximately 1 million pairs of orders shipped in advance for the first half of 2024 [1] 2. Short-term operational efficiency issues related to increased production capacity in Indonesia and the Philippines, where local labor productivity has not yet reached optimal levels [1] Strategic Adjustments - To meet demand and ensure the achievement of customer objectives, the company has shifted some production to its factories in Vietnam, which has led to increased costs, including overtime expenses [1]