Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Aon (AON) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended September 2025, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Aon is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.89 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.3% [3]. - Revenues are projected to reach $3.94 billion, which is a 5.9% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.62% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - Aon has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.60%, suggesting analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Aon was expected to post earnings of $3.4 per share but actually delivered $3.49, resulting in a surprise of +2.65% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Aon has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Comparison - Another player in the insurance brokerage industry, Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), is expected to report earnings of $2.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of +11.1% [18]. - AJG's revenues are anticipated to be $3.45 billion, up 25.8% from the previous year [19].

Group 1: Company Overview - Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is recognized as one of Warren Buffett's top stock picks with significant upside potential [1] - Aon operates as a global professional services company through its Risk Capital and Human Capital segments, offering services such as retail brokerage, specialty solutions, and global risk consulting [4] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - BofA has raised the price target for Aon from $397 to $412 while maintaining a Sell rating on the stock [1][3] - The average price target for Aon, based on analysts' estimates, is $422.50, indicating an upside of approximately 23.02% from current levels [4] Group 3: Earnings Expectations - For the third quarter, analysts expect Aon to report adjusted earnings per share of around $2.91 and projected revenue of $3.96 billion [3] - Out of 26 Wall Street analysts, 13 have given a Buy rating to Aon ahead of the Q3 earnings report [3]

Core Insights - Aon plc has launched a new AI-powered supply chain risk consulting solution aimed at enhancing the management of complex supply chains [1][2] - The solution utilizes predictive analytics to identify potential risks, improving accuracy and responsiveness for organizations [2][4] Supply Chain Risk Management - The new offering builds on Aon's existing supply chain diagnostics and analyzes data from over 80,000 sources across 200 countries [2][5] - It helps organizations identify both direct and indirect risks, including supplier concentration and logistics constraints, which can impact operational performance [3][5] Decision-Making Support - Aon's solution provides a clear view of the supply chain risk environment, enabling better decision-making and enhancing resilience against disruptions [3][4] - Real-time insights and recommendations are delivered through Aon's Supply Chain Diagnostic, equipping decision-makers with necessary tools for effective responses [6] Industry Challenges and Solutions - Richard Waterer, Aon's Global Risk Consulting Leader, highlighted that many organizations are unaware of hidden vulnerabilities in their supply chains, and the new capabilities aim to surface these risks [4] - Joe Galusha, Head of Risk Consulting, North America, emphasized the need for a new approach to address the pace and complexity of supply chain disruptions, integrating AI analytics with industry knowledge [7]

Core Insights - The rise of catastrophe bonds is impacting the market share of reinsurers, with primary insurers increasingly relying on these bonds as a backstop for extreme disaster scenarios [1][2] - The market for catastrophe bonds has grown significantly, with primary insurers sponsoring 58% of all cat bonds, up from 48% two years ago [1] - Reinsurers are experiencing new market dynamics, as a larger share of their business is moving to alternative investment managers seeking higher returns [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Insurers' reliance on capital markets is increasing, coinciding with rising costs from natural catastrophes, with industry losses expected to exceed $150 billion this year [3] - The cat bond market has expanded by over 50% since 2023, reaching an estimated $55 billion [3] - The performance of cat bonds has been favorable, with the Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Performance Index up about 10% this year, following a 2% loss during Hurricane Ian in 2022 [5] Group 2: Reinsurer Strategies - Reinsurers are facing pressure on rates due to the expansion of the cat bond market, leading to signs of price correction [6] - Some reinsurers, like Swiss Re, are increasing their involvement in the cat bond market, both as issuers and investment managers [7] - Swiss Re emphasizes the importance of integrating capital markets with traditional reinsurance to enhance resilience against natural disasters [8] Group 3: Profit Risks - Property and casualty insurers face greater profit risks in 2025 compared to reinsurers, with significant losses from severe convective storms [8]

Core Insights - The rise of catastrophe bonds is impacting the market share of reinsurers, with primary insurers increasingly relying on these bonds instead of traditional reinsurance [1][2] - The market for catastrophe bonds has grown significantly, with estimates indicating a growth of over 50% to $55 billion since 2023 [3] - Reinsurers are experiencing pressure on their rates due to the shift towards capital markets for risk transfer, leading to price corrections and diminished market dominance [6] Market Dynamics - Primary insurers now sponsor 58% of all catastrophe bonds, up from 48% two years ago, indicating a shift in reliance from reinsurers [1] - Reinsurers remain dominant but are losing market share to alternative investment managers seeking higher returns [2] - The increasing reliance on capital markets coincides with rising costs from natural catastrophes, with industry losses expected to exceed $150 billion this year [3] Catastrophe Bonds Performance - Catastrophe bonds can yield significant returns if no catastrophic event occurs, as evidenced by the Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Performance Index, which gained about 10% this year [4][5] - The issuance of catastrophe bonds has reached record levels, with projections for continued growth into 2025 [5] Reinsurers' Response - Some reinsurers are adapting by increasing their involvement in the catastrophe bond market, both as issuers and investment managers [7] - Swiss Re emphasizes the importance of capital market instruments as complementary to traditional reinsurance, aiming to provide effective risk transfer solutions [8]

Group 1: Miller Appointments - Miller appointed Rodolphe Menn as head of France to enhance its presence in the country [2][4] - Menn has over 25 years of industry experience, previously serving as managing director of Intact's French operations since 2019 [3] - His responsibilities include executing Miller's French business strategy and fostering collaboration with the global network [4][5] Group 2: Aon Appointments - Aon UK promoted Michelle Beverely to chief broking officer and Lucy Gleeson to head of Products and Facilities [5][6] - Beverely has over 20 years of experience and will shape the UK Commercial Risk broking strategy [6][7] - Gleeson, who joined Aon in 2022, previously led the Structured Portfolio Solutions team and will enhance Aon's client offerings [8]

Core Insights - Aon has appointed Simon Chisholm as the chairman of Asia for Reinsurance Solutions, effective from January 1, 2026, to enhance client relationships in key markets like Japan and Thailand [1][2] Group 1: Appointment and Responsibilities - Chisholm will lead the Global Clients Segment within the Asian markets, focusing on strengthening client relationships [1] - He will operate from Singapore and report to Asia Reinsurance Solutions CEO Soeren Soltysiak [2] - His extensive experience at Aon and knowledge of both Asia and global markets make him a suitable fit for this role [3] Group 2: Strategic Alignment - Chisholm's appointment is part of Aon's strategy to align services with the diverse needs of clients across Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Aon APAC Reinsurance Solutions CEO Rupert Moore emphasized Chisholm's central role in partnering with major insurers in the region [2][3] Group 3: Product Development - Aon recently expanded its analytics offerings with the enhanced TPI Portfolio, aimed at helping insurers assess risk profiles and make data-driven underwriting decisions [3] - The TPI Portfolio supports sectors in monitoring sustainability progress, particularly in reducing emissions, aligning with Aon's 3×3 Plan and Risk Capital Strategy [4]

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Core Points - Aon plc plans to announce its third-quarter results on October 31, 2025, at 6:30 AM ET [1] - Aon’s President and CEO Greg Case, along with CFO Edmund Reese, will host a conference call at 8:30 AM ET on the same day, which will be available live on Aon's Investor Relations website [2] - Aon operates in over 120 countries, providing clients with insights and solutions in risk and human capital management [3]

Core Insights - Aon plc, a professional services firm based in Dublin, operates in over 120 countries with a market cap of $78.9 billion, offering services in risk management, insurance, human resources consulting, and outsourcing [1] Financial Performance - Aon is expected to announce its third-quarter results soon, with analysts predicting a non-GAAP profit of $2.89 per share, reflecting a 6.3% increase from $2.27 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2025, Aon's non-GAAP EPS is projected to be $16.86, an 8.1% increase from $15.60 in 2024, and is expected to rise further by 13.2% to $19.09 per share in fiscal 2026 [3] Stock Performance - Aon's stock has increased by 6.7% over the past 52 weeks, which is significantly lower than the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund's 19.3% and the S&P 500 Index's 17.9% gains during the same period [4] - Following the release of strong Q2 results, Aon's stock surged by 4.6%, with the company reporting a 6% growth in organic revenues and a 10.5% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $4.2 billion, exceeding market expectations [5] Operating Metrics - Aon experienced a 13.8% growth in non-GAAP operating income to $1.2 billion, alongside a 19.1% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP EPS to $3.49, surpassing consensus estimates by 2.7% [6] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating for Aon, with 12 "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," seven "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and two "Strong Sells" among 23 analysts. The mean price target of $415.06 indicates a potential upside of 13.1% from current levels [7]