Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is undergoing a planned leadership transition with Rajat Marwah set to succeed Michael Garcia as CEO on January 1, 2026, while Michael Moraca will be promoted to CFO on the same date [1][2][4] Leadership Transition - Michael Garcia will retire at the end of 2025 after leading the company through significant transformation, initiating a comprehensive succession planning process in late 2024 [2][5] - Rajat Marwah, currently CFO, will take on the role of President and CFO effective November 1, 2025, and will become CEO on January 1, 2026 [3] - Michael Moraca, currently Vice President, will be appointed CFO effective January 1, 2026, bringing extensive experience in corporate finance and strategic planning [4] Company Strategy and Transformation - Rajat Marwah has been with Algoma since 2008 and has played a key role in shaping the company's long-term strategy and business transformation, particularly in advancing the transition to electric arc steelmaking [3][5] - The company is focused on becoming a leading low-carbon steel producer, with a significant transformation initiative aimed at reducing carbon emissions by approximately 70% through the adoption of electric arc furnace technology [9] Product Development - The transition to electric arc furnace steelmaking will introduce Volta™, a brand for all steel produced through this technology, which promises lower emissions while maintaining performance [10] - Algoma Steel is committed to investing in sustainable steelmaking practices, supporting critical sectors such as energy, defense, automotive, and infrastructure [8][10]

Core Thesis - Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) is positioned as a compelling investment opportunity due to its unique status as the only fully leveraged Canadian steel platform capable of meeting the country's growing infrastructure demands [3][4][6] Financial Metrics - As of October 3rd, ASTL's share price was $3.31, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 14.30 and 9.12 respectively [2] - The stock is currently trading at $4.73, significantly below its estimated replacement cost of $3.4–5.8 billion, which translates to a potential share value of $22–45 net of liabilities [5] Market Position and Demand Drivers - The company benefits from a predictable, multi-year domestic steel demand driven by government-backed infrastructure programs, including the National Shipbuilding Strategy and various transportation projects [4] - A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Seaspan to source steel domestically for shipbuilding further supports the demand outlook and reduces logistical risks [4] Asset Valuation and Upside Potential - ASTL's balance sheet reveals hidden assets valued between $86 million and $425 million, indicating substantial upside potential [5] - The stock trades at just 0.53× book value and 0.44× base-adjusted book value, providing a significant margin of safety for investors [5] Risks and Mitigation - While there are downside risks related to tariffs and project timing, these are considered temporal rather than terminal, suggesting that the long-term investment case remains strong [6] - The combination of undervalued hard assets and imminent infrastructure catalysts positions Algoma Steel favorably for future growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is set to release its third quarter financial results for 2025 on October 29, 2025, followed by a conference call on October 30, 2025, to discuss the results and recent events [1][2] Company Overview - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario [3] - The company is a fully integrated producer and a key supplier of steel products in North America, being the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada [3] - Algoma's Direct Strip Production Complex (DSPC) is recognized as one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in North America [3] Transformation and Sustainability - Algoma is undergoing a transformation to modernize its plate mill and adopt electric arc technology, focusing on recycling and environmental stewardship to reduce carbon emissions [4] - The company aims to become one of North America's leading producers of green steel, emphasizing investment in its workforce and processes [4][5] - Algoma's commitment to sustainability is positioned to provide North America with a secure steel supply and a sustainable future [5]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is facing challenges with expected negative Adjusted EBITDA while achieving significant milestones in its transition to low-carbon steelmaking [2][3]. Financial Guidance - Total steel shipments for the quarter are projected to be approximately 415,000 – 420,000 net tons [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be negative $80 million – negative $90 million [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully completed its first arc and first steel production from its electric arc furnace (EAF) in July, marking a key milestone in its transformation [3]. - Algoma is focusing on Canadian market demand with a tailored product mix of plate and coil, supported by federal and provincial financial assistance [3]. Leadership Changes - David Sgro has resigned from the board of directors for personal reasons, with acknowledgments of his contributions during a transformative period for the company [4][5]. - The Chair of the Board, Andy Harshaw, expressed gratitude for Sgro's leadership and impact on the company's strategic vision [5]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, is a fully integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, serving various sectors including automotive, construction, and energy [6]. - The company is recognized as a key supplier of steel products in North America and is the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada [6]. Environmental Commitment - Algoma is modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology to significantly reduce carbon emissions, emphasizing its commitment to environmental stewardship [7]. - The company aims to become one of North America's leading producers of green steel through investments in people and processes [7].

Core Points - The United Steelworkers union (USW) welcomes a $400 million federal loan and an additional $100 million from the Ontario government to support Algoma Steel, emphasizing the need for transparency and public commitments to protect jobs and community interests [1][2] - The USW highlights the absence of specific investment commitments for product diversification, which is crucial for meeting Canadian steel demand in infrastructure and other sectors [2][3] - The union calls for a comprehensive industrial strategy to ensure Canada can meet its own steel needs and avoid vulnerabilities from foreign trade policies [3] Summary by Sections Government Support - The federal government is providing a $400 million loan through the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility, with an additional $100 million from the Ontario government to Algoma Steel [1] - The USW stresses the importance of transparent terms for this public funding to protect jobs and community interests [2] Job Security and Product Diversification - The USW expresses concern over potential layoffs as Algoma transitions to an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) and emphasizes the need for training and reskilling funding [3] - The union criticizes the lack of specified investment commitments for product diversification, which is essential for the long-term viability of steel production in Sault Ste. Marie [2][3] Industrial Strategy - The USW advocates for a comprehensive industrial strategy that includes Buy Canadian procurement, diversification investments, strict import controls, and worker transition supports [3] - The union has been vocal about the need for decisive government action since the imposition of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel by the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. has secured C$500 million in liquidity support to navigate trade uncertainties and advance its business transformation [1][3][10] Financial Support - The liquidity support consists of C$400 million in loan facilities from the Government of Canada and C$100 million from the Province of Ontario [1][4] - The loan facilities will have a seven-year term with interest set at CORRA + 200 basis points for the first three years, increasing by 200 basis points each subsequent year [4] Government Involvement - Key government officials, including the Minister of Jobs and Families and the Minister of Finance, participated in the announcement of the financial support [2] - The support is seen as recognition of Algoma's critical role in Canada's industrial base and its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking [9][10] Operational Adjustments - Algoma is adjusting its production strategy to align with domestic demand due to the ongoing 50% tariff on Canadian steel, which has effectively closed the U.S. market [3][7] - The company plans to exit traditional blast furnace operations and transition to EAF steelmaking, with an estimated project cost of approximately C$987 million [8][9] Strategic Focus - Algoma intends to focus on producing as-rolled and heat-treated plate products primarily for the Canadian market [9] - The company aims to enhance its sustainability efforts by adopting EAF technology, which is expected to significantly lower carbon emissions [12]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. has amended its credit agreement to increase its asset-based revolving credit facility from US$300 million to US$375 million, enhancing its financial flexibility amid challenging market conditions [1][2][3] Financial Position - The additional US$75 million in commitments is provided by Export Development Canada (EDC), which joins the existing lending syndicate as a direct lender [2] - This transaction is part of a broader set of liquidity initiatives aimed at strengthening the company's financial position [2] Strategic Initiatives - The upsizing of the ABL Facility is expected to support Algoma's operations and strategic priorities, particularly its transformation to Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking [3] - The facility remains secured by a first-priority lien on accounts receivable, inventory, and related assets [3] Company Overview - Algoma is a fully integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, serving various sectors including automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing [4] - The company is the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada and operates one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in North America [4] Environmental Commitment - Algoma is modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology to significantly lower carbon emissions, positioning itself as a leading producer of green steel in North America [5] - The company emphasizes its commitment to recycling and environmental stewardship as part of its transformation journey [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter results included an adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 32.4 million, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of negative 5.5% and cash used in operating activities of CAD 37.9 million [17][18] - The company finished the quarter with CAD 82 million in cash and CAD 329 million available under its revolving credit facility [17] - Net loss in the second quarter was CAD 110.6 million compared to net income of CAD 6.1 million in the prior year quarter, driven primarily by lower steel shipment volumes and lower realized pricing [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Plate shipments reached approximately 103,000 tons, up from 91,000 tons in 2025 and 82,000 tons in 2024, indicating a strategic focus on plate production [10] - The company shipped 472,000 net tons in the quarter, a decline of 6.2% versus the prior year quarter, attributed to weakening market conditions [18] - Net sales realization averaged CAD 11.32 per tonne compared to CAD 11.87 per tonne in the prior year period, reflecting weakening market conditions [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market is effectively closed to Canadian steel producers due to prohibitive 50% tariffs, significantly impacting export sales [7][10] - The Canadian plate market is characterized as stable, with the company holding over 40% market share, while the sheet market remains weak [28] - Pricing in the Canadian plate market is about 40% lower than in the U.S. plate market, which is currently a spot market [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on completing its transition to lower cost, lower carbon green steelmaking, positioning itself as a competitive and sustainable operator [9][15] - Algoma is actively engaging with policymakers to ensure the strategic importance of Canadian steelmaking is recognized and supported [16] - The company is pursuing opportunities aligned with domestic demand in sectors such as defense, infrastructure, and clean manufacturing [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the unprecedented disruption in the steel industry due to trade barriers and macroeconomic volatility, but remains optimistic about market normalization in the future [8][9] - The successful production of first steel from the EAF Unit 1 is seen as a transformative milestone, reinforcing confidence in the company's transformation strategy [12][15] - The company is reviewing multiple scenarios to manage risks associated with prolonged U.S. tariffs and is actively working on liquidity management [13][14] Other Important Information - Cumulative investment in the EAF project was CAD 880.5 million as of June 30, 2025 [12] - The company received final approval totaling CAD 21.3 million related to its EAF investment under Ontario's emissions performance program [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the current plate market? - The plate market in Canada is stable and not as oversupplied as the sheet market, with the company building market share to over 40% [27][28] Question: How does Canadian pricing compare to U.S. pricing? - Canadian plate pricing is about 40% lower than U.S. pricing, currently operating as a spot market [29] Question: What is the remaining CapEx for the EAF project? - The guidance remains unchanged, with the project being de-risked by demonstrating the operation of the first unit [30] Question: How will CapEx be affected if the market remains weak? - CapEx is expected to be lower if the market stays weak, with maintenance CapEx flexing between CAD 80 million to CAD 120 million [31] Question: What additional measures are being considered to improve liquidity? - The company is actively working on optimizing working capital to generate more cash during uncertain times [36] Question: What are the expectations for shipments in the upcoming quarters? - Shipments are expected to remain around current levels, with uncertainty driven by trade discussions [39] Question: How long can the company service volumes under the 50% tariffs? - The company and its customers will need to assess the situation as they approach the contract season in the fourth quarter [55] Question: What are the next steps for ramping up EAF production? - The company expects to produce approximately 200,000 tons of EAF steel in 2025, with ongoing construction and commissioning of the second unit [56][57]

Financial Performance - Shipping volume for Q2 2025 was 472K NT, a slight increase from 470K NT in Q1 2025 but a 6% decrease from 503K NT in Q2 2024[21] - Steel Revenue in Q2 2025 reached $534 million, up 15% from $463 million in Q1 2025 but down 11% from $597 million in Q2 2024[21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $(32) million, an increase of $15 million from $(47) million in Q1 2025 but a decrease of $70 million from $38 million in Q2 2024[21] - Net Income in Q2 2025 was $(111) million, down $86 million from $(25) million in Q1 2025 and down $117 million from $6 million in Q2 2024[21] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q2 2025 was -55%[21, 22] Strategic Initiatives - The company is progressing with its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) transformation, with the first heat achieved in July 2025[39] - The EAF project is expected to reduce emissions by 70% and improve GHG performance[39] - Algoma commenced quarterly dividend of $005 per share[39] Market Factors - Increased US tariffs of 50% on imported steel and aluminum have disrupted global steel markets[36] - Tariffs on imported pig iron into the US are also expected to impact market dynamics[36]

Company Performance - Algoma Steel Group Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.74 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.45, and compared to a loss of $0.05 per share a year ago, indicating a significant decline in performance [1] - Legato Merger, part of the Zacks Steel - Producers industry, posted revenues of $426.19 million for the quarter ended June 2025, slightly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.15%, but down from $475.44 million year-over-year [2] - The earnings surprise for Algoma Steel was -64.44%, while Legato Merger has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters [1][2] Stock Performance - Legato Merger shares have decreased by approximately 37.4% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for Legato Merger for the upcoming quarter is -$0.65 on revenues of $436.28 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$1.74 on revenues of $1.69 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Steel - Producers industry is currently ranked in the bottom 12% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a challenging environment for companies within this sector [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact investor sentiment and stock performance [5][6]