The market expects Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 29, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are ...

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. has filed a base shelf prospectus and a registration statement to maintain financial flexibility, allowing potential future offerings of various securities over a 25-month period, although there is no immediate intention to raise capital [1][2]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario [5]. - The company is a fully integrated producer and key supplier of steel products in North America, being the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada [5]. - Algoma's Direct Strip Production Complex (DSPC) is noted as one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in North America [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Algoma is undergoing a transformation journey, modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology to significantly lower carbon emissions [6]. - The company is focused on building a greener future and investing in its people and processes to become a leading producer of green steel in North America [6]. Market Position - As a founding industry in its community, Algoma aims to deliver greater value and ensure a secure steel supply for North America [7].

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is set to release its Q2 2025 financial results on July 29, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for July 30, 2025, to discuss the results and recent developments [1][3] Financial Performance - Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 472,000 tons [2] - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be in the range of ($30) million to ($35) million [2] Company Strategy and Operations - The CEO highlighted that the results were in line with expectations, particularly noting strength in the plate business despite macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff policies affecting the sector [3] - Algoma is advancing its transformation into one of North America's greenest steel producers, having achieved first arc and first steel production from its electric arc furnace project [3][8] Company Overview - Algoma is a fully integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, including sheet and plate, and is a key supplier in North America [7] - The company is modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology to significantly lower carbon emissions, emphasizing its commitment to environmental stewardship [8]

Core Insights - Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) has achieved its first steel production at Unit One of its new electric arc furnace (EAF) project, marking a significant milestone for the company [1][8] - The EAF project is the largest industrial decarbonization initiative in Canada, enabling the production of green steel with potential carbon emissions reduction of up to 70% [2][8] - The steel produced is branded as "Volta," which is powered by Ontario's clean electricity grid, aligning with the increasing demand for environmentally friendly products [3][8] Company Performance - ASTL's stock has declined by 14.3% over the past year, while the industry has seen a larger decline of 23.8% [5] - Currently, ASTL holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating a less favorable outlook compared to other stocks in the Basic Materials sector [6] - In contrast, other companies in the sector, such as Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) and Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE), have shown stronger performance and higher Zacks Ranks [6][7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. has achieved its first steel production at its new electric arc furnace project, marking a significant milestone in its transformation towards producing green steel with a potential reduction in carbon emissions by up to 70 percent [1][2]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario [6]. - The company is a fully integrated producer and key supplier of steel products in North America, recognized for its Direct Strip Production Complex, which is one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in the region [6]. Transformation and Innovation - The first steel production from the electric arc furnace (EAF) project is part of Algoma's largest industrial decarbonization initiative in Canada, reflecting years of planning and execution since the project began in November 2021 [3]. - The EAF technology is expected to significantly lower carbon emissions, aligning with the company's commitment to environmental stewardship and recycling [7]. Product Development - All steel produced through the EAFs will be branded as Volta, which aims to deliver the same performance as existing products but with dramatically lower emissions, leveraging Ontario's clean electricity grid [4]. - The introduction of Volta is part of Algoma's strategy to support the growth of a low-carbon economy [4]. Leadership Perspective - The President and CEO of Algoma expressed pride in reaching this critical milestone, emphasizing the company's determination to innovate and lead in the steel industry during a period of trade uncertainty [3].

Company Overview - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario [6] - The company is a key supplier of steel products in North America and the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada [6] Annual Meeting Results - All nominees listed in the management information circular were elected as directors, with a total of 64,907,782 votes cast [2] - The appointment of Deloitte LLP as the Company's auditors for the 2025 calendar year was approved by a majority of votes [2] - A non-binding advisory resolution on executive compensation was also approved by a majority at the Meeting [3] Transformation and Sustainability Initiatives - Algoma is on a transformation journey, modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology to lower carbon emissions [7] - The company aims to become one of North America's leading producers of green steel, focusing on recycling and environmental stewardship [7] - Algoma is committed to investing in its people and processes to enhance safety and teamwork [7] Market Position and Strategy - Algoma's Direct Strip Production Complex (DSPC) is recognized as one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in North America [6] - The company emphasizes delivering responsive, customer-driven product solutions across various sectors, including automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. emphasizes its commitment to sustainability as a strategic priority, particularly through the completion of its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) project, which aims to significantly reduce carbon emissions and position the company as a leading producer of green steel in Canada [2][6]. Group 1: Sustainability Report Highlights - The 2024 Sustainability Report covers a nine-month transition period from April 1 to December 31, 2024, aligning with the company's financial reporting period [1]. - The report showcases Algoma's advancements in enterprise risk management and integrated business planning, enhancing governance and operational reliability [2]. - Algoma's EAF project is expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%, marking a significant step towards decarbonization in the steel industry [2][6]. Group 2: Commitment to Transparency - The report is prepared in accordance with the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), highlighting Algoma's dedication to transparency and long-term value creation [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a fully integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, serving various sectors including automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing [5]. - The company operates one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in North America, with a focus on customer-driven product solutions [5].

Core Insights - Algoma Steel Group Inc. reported a consolidated revenue of $517.1 million for Q1 2025, down from $620.6 million in the same quarter of the previous year, reflecting ongoing market challenges and lower pricing in the steel market [6][5][8] - The company experienced a net loss of $24.5 million in Q1 2025, compared to a net income of $28.0 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower realized pricing and higher input costs, partially offset by a $50 million insurance receivable [8][9][6] - Algoma is advancing its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking, with first steel production expected in Q2 2025, which is anticipated to improve cost structure and reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70% [11][13][29] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $517.1 million, a decrease of 16.6% from $620.6 million in Q1 2024 [6][8] - Steel revenue was $463.2 million, down from $568.1 million year-over-year, with the average realized price of steel dropping to $986 per ton from $1,260 per ton [6][9] - The company reported an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $46.7 million, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of (9.0%), compared to an Adjusted EBITDA of $41.5 million and a margin of 6.7% in the prior-year quarter [9][35] Operational Highlights - Shipments increased by 4.2% to 469,731 tons in Q1 2025, compared to 450,966 tons in Q1 2024 [9][6] - The company incurred tariff-related costs of $10.5 million during the quarter, contributing to operational losses [7][17] - Construction on the EAF project is progressing, with critical systems commissioned despite delays caused by harsh winter conditions [11][5] Market Environment - The North American steel market is experiencing significant volatility due to evolving U.S. tariffs, which have added uncertainty and increased imports into Canada [5][16] - The Canadian steel market is facing oversupply issues, leading to lower transactional pricing compared to the U.S. market [16][17] - The company is positioned to become a strategic force in the North American steel industry, focusing on safety, sustainability, and the production of green steel [5][29][28] Liquidity and Dividends - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash of $226.5 million and unused availability under its Revolving Credit Facility of $360.9 million [18] - A quarterly dividend of US$0.05 per share has been declared, payable on May 30, 2025 [19]

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is set to release its first quarter financial results for 2025 on April 29, 2025, followed by a conference call on April 30, 2025, to discuss the results and recent developments [1][2]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, including sheet and plate [3]. - The company aims to provide customer-driven product solutions across various sectors such as automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing [3]. - Algoma is the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada and operates one of the lowest-cost hot rolled sheet steel producers in North America through its Direct Strip Production Complex [3]. Transformation and Sustainability - Algoma is undergoing a transformation by modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology, which focuses on recycling and environmental stewardship to reduce carbon emissions significantly [4]. - The company is committed to investing in its workforce and processes to become a leading producer of green steel in North America [4][5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 60.3 million for Q4 2024, with cash used in operating activities amounting to CAD 76.9 million [14] - Total shipments for Q4 2024 reached 549,000 tons, a 6.3% increase compared to the same quarter last year, while net sales realization averaged CAD 976 per ton, down from CAD 1,079 per ton in the prior year [15] - For the full year 2024, the company shipped 2 million net tons, down from 2.1 million net tons in the previous year, with net sales realizations averaging CAD 1,107 per ton, a decrease of 5.6% [18] - Steel revenue for Q4 2024 was CAD 536 million, a decline of 3.8% year-over-year, while the cost per ton of steel products sold averaged CAD 1,032, similar to the prior year [16][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Plate shipments for Q4 2024 reached approximately 82,000 tons, up from 73,000 tons in Q3 2024, with expectations for Q1 2025 plate production to be directionally higher [5] - The company is dynamically adjusting its product mix between plate and coil products based on market conditions and contractual obligations, focusing on higher-margin products [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the Canadian market is currently oversupplied with coil and undersupplied with plate, which may lead to price increases for plate products [37] - The implementation of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports has introduced uncertainty into the North American steel market, but the company expects a rational dialogue to restore normal trade [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on completing its electric arc furnace (EAF) project, with first steel production expected in April 2025, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and cost structure [8][25] - The transition to EAF steelmaking is seen as a long-term strategy to strengthen the company's position in the market and improve its ability to navigate uncertainties [11][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the challenging market conditions due to tariff uncertainty, soft demand, and other macroeconomic factors affecting customer behavior [4] - Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about the upcoming EAF operations and the potential for increased production and market share in the plate segment [25][72] Other Important Information - The cumulative investment for the EAF project was CAD 740 million as of December 31, 2024, with expectations to complete the project within 5% of the upper budget range [10] - The company expects to release approximately CAD 100 million of working capital from March 2024 to March 2025 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on the Blast Furnace outage duration and costs - The outage lasted a couple of days to a week due to extreme weather conditions, with no significant costs involved [31][32] Question: Impact of tariffs on EBITDA generation - The company indicated that with current pricing, it could break even or generate a small profit despite the 25% tariff on shipments to the US [34][35] Question: Canadian sheet prices and potential oversupply - The Canadian market is currently oversupplied with coil and undersupplied with plate, which may lead to price increases for plate products [37] Question: Mitigation strategies in response to tariffs - The company is focused on cost reduction initiatives and transitioning to EAF production as a primary strategy to lower costs [45][46] Question: Expected insurance payout and timing - The company expects around CAD 100 million from insurance, with CAD 20 to CAD 25 million anticipated in the next month [52][54] Question: Volume expectations for 2025 - The company anticipates total shipments for the year to be between 2.1 million to 2.2 million tons, with a focus on increasing plate production [98]