Shares of Auna S.A. (AUNA) have gained 9.7% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $5.32, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $6.88 indicates a potential upside of 29.3%.The average comprises five short-term price targets ranging from a low of $6.00 to a high of $9.00, with a standard deviation of $1.24. While the lowest estimate indicates an i ...

Auna S.A. (AUNA) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this company, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in e ...

Momentum investing is essentially the opposite of the tried-and-tested Wall Street adage -- "buy low and sell high." Investors following this investing style typically avoid betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. They believe instead that one could make far more money in lesser time by "buying high and selling higher."Everyone likes betting on fast-moving trending stocks, but it isn't easy to determine the right entry point. These stocks often lose momentum when their future growth po ...

Core Insights - Auna S.A. has a strong history of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 93.59% over the last two quarters, indicating potential for continued performance in upcoming reports [1][2] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Auna S.A. achieved earnings of $0.20 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.15 per share by 33.33% [2] - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.33 per share against an expected $0.13 per share, resulting in a surprise of 153.85% [2] Earnings Estimates - Recent estimates for Auna S.A. have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP of +44.00%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding the company's near-term earnings potential [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a strong likelihood of another earnings beat [5][8] Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have historically produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time, indicating a high probability of exceeding consensus estimates [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions and potentially more accurate predictions [7]

Core Viewpoint - Auna SA is identified as a promising investment opportunity, particularly as analysts project significant upside potential due to its growth strategies and market positioning [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Auna SA operates a vertically integrated network of healthcare facilities, including hospitals, clinics, and outpatient services across Peru, Colombia, and Mexico, with a focus on high-complexity care, especially in oncology and prepaid health plans [4]. - The company is currently trading at a low valuation of 4.5 times its estimated adjusted earnings for 2026, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Auna's growth is expected to accelerate due to the expansion of its operations in Mexico, supported by a $500 million investment from Sojitz and the Trecca PPP project in Peru [2][3]. - The healthcare spending increase in Latin America is anticipated to benefit Auna, with strong growth reported in Peru and Colombia, which helped mitigate declines in Mexico [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The Latin American healthcare market is characterized by low penetration of private insurance, covering only about 10% of the population, presenting a substantial growth opportunity for Auna [2].

Core Insights - AUNA has shown a modest gain of 0.43% over the past month, but a decline of 4.93% in the last 10 days may present a buying opportunity for investors [1][6] - The stock has a forecasted increase of 94.38%, indicating significant growth potential and making it attractive for growth-oriented investors [2][6] - AUNA's financial health is strong, evidenced by a Piotroski Score of 8, which suggests robust financials and efficient operations [3][6] - The recent local minimum touched by AUNA could signal a potential turnaround, enhancing its appeal for investors [4] - With a target price of $9, AUNA offers significant upside potential from current levels, making it a promising investment opportunity [5]

Group 1 - Auna SA (NYSE:AUNA) is recognized as one of the 10 Best New Penny Stocks to Invest In, with Morgan Stanley lowering its price target from $11.50 to $10 while maintaining an Overweight rating [1] - By the end of Q3 2025, Auna SA's network will include 31 healthcare facilities, comprising 2,333 beds and approximately 1.4 million healthcare plans [2] - Auna SA generates strong operating cash flow, enabling the company to reduce its debt levels over time [3] Group 2 - Auna SA's strategy focuses on expanding into markets with low-priced healthcare policies, particularly in Peru and Mexico, where private healthcare access is limited [3][4] - The company is a leading healthcare provider in Latin America, operating hospitals and clinics while offering health plans that prioritize prevention and high-complexity care [4] - The growth potential in Mexico is significant, requiring minimal capital expenditure for occupancy of existing beds [1][3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 5% decline in total adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to weaker performance in Mexico [6][9] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was PEN 58 million, with a 1% increase in FX-neutral consolidated revenue driven by Peru and Colombia [9][18] - Capacity utilization decreased by 3 percentage points to 64%, with a 1.5 percentage point increase in Peru offset by declines in Colombia and Mexico [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru's top line and EBITDA grew by 9% and 15% respectively, driven by an improving healthcare pricing mix and strong insurance MLR [7][18] - Colombia's revenue increased by 5%, supported by risk-sharing models, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 18% [19][18] - Mexico experienced a 12% decline in revenue, although surgery volumes and oncology services showed growth [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru accounted for over half of the company's revenues, with a solid growth trajectory [21] - Colombia's revenue share from Nueva EPS decreased from 20% to 13%, indicating successful diversification of payers [19][45] - Mexico's revenue decline was attributed to a slow recovery in volumes and non-operating impacts from system migrations [21][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its growth in Mexico through a partnership with Sojitz, focusing on co-investment opportunities [32][39] - Auna is committed to maintaining a leverage ratio below three times net debt to EBITDA while pursuing growth initiatives [28][32] - The Trecca project in Peru is expected to generate significant revenue, with a focus on expanding services to state beneficiaries [53][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for a recovery in Mexico in 2026, despite current challenges [8][32] - The company remains focused on improving operational efficiency and expanding its market presence in Peru and Colombia [30][31] - Management highlighted the importance of attracting and retaining healthcare talent in Mexico to drive growth [13][15] Other Important Information - The company successfully refinanced $765 million in debt, improving its debt profile and financial flexibility [27][28] - Auna's cash position at the end of the quarter was PEN 226 million, reflecting a 4.2% decrease from the beginning of the year [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you explain the rationale for expanding in Mexico and how it aligns with your deleveraging goals? - Management emphasized that the partnership with Sojitz will help accelerate growth in Mexico while maintaining leverage targets [39][40] Question: Do you think a change in Colombia's leadership could ease pressures on EPSs? - Management indicated that while political changes may not yield immediate results, there are signs of stabilization in the Colombian healthcare sector [40][41] Question: What key KPIs should be tracked to confirm a recovery in 2026? - Management suggested monitoring occupancy, payer mix, and surgical productivity as indicators of recovery [61] Question: What is the nature of the $500 million investment plan in Mexico? - Management confirmed that the investment plan is related to the MOU with Sojitz and aims to drive significant top-line growth [72] Question: How is Auna managing insurance risk at a group level? - Management explained that risk is managed through continuous repricing and cost containment strategies [75][78] Question: Have the preferred payer network and bundled packages for corporates been launched? - Management confirmed that the preferred payer network has been launched and is continuously evolving [79][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported weaker financial results for Q3 2025, with a 5% decline in total adjusted EBITDA primarily due to performance in Mexico [6][9] - Adjusted net income was PEN 58 million for the quarter, with FX-neutral consolidated revenue increasing by 1% [9][24] - Capacity utilization decreased by 3 percentage points to 64%, with a 1.5 percentage point increase in Peru offset by declines in Colombia and Mexico [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru's top line and EBITDA grew by 9% and 15% respectively, driven by an improving healthcare pricing mix and strong insurance MLR [7][18] - Colombia's revenue increased by 5%, supported by risk-sharing models, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% [19][21] - Mexico experienced a 12% revenue decline, although surgery volumes and oncology services showed growth [9][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru accounted for over half of the company's revenues, with a solid growth trajectory [21] - Colombia's revenue share from Nueva EPS decreased from 20% to 13%, indicating successful diversification [19][45] - Mexico's revenue decline was attributed to a slow recovery in volumes and non-operating impacts from system migrations [21][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capture long-term growth opportunities in Mexico, anticipating a full recovery in 2026 [8][32] - Auna is focusing on enhancing its oncology capabilities and expanding its service offerings in Mexico [16][14] - The partnership with Sojitz is expected to accelerate growth in Mexico while maintaining leverage targets [39][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in Mexico but expressed optimism about future growth and recovery [6][32] - The company remains committed to improving its leverage ratio and enhancing shareholder value [27][62] - Management highlighted the resilience of its integrated model and the potential for growth in Peru and Colombia despite external challenges [30][41] Other Important Information - Auna successfully completed a $765 million debt refinancing, improving its debt profile and financial flexibility [27][28] - The company is implementing a new comprehensive IT system to enhance operational efficiency and data management [17][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you explain the rationale for expanding in Mexico and how it aligns with your goal to deleverage Auna? - Management emphasized that Auna is a growth story and sees significant opportunities in Mexico, with the partnership with Sojitz facilitating this growth while maintaining leverage targets [39][40] Question: Do you think a potential change in Colombia's leadership could ease pressures on EPSs? - Management indicated that while political changes may not have immediate effects, there are signs of stabilization in the Colombian healthcare sector [40][45] Question: What key KPIs should be tracked to confirm a tangible recovery in 2026? - Management suggested monitoring occupancy, payer mix, and surgical productivity as key indicators of recovery [61] Question: Could you provide more details around the partnership with Sojitz and the TRECA project? - Management confirmed that the TRECA project is a significant public-private partnership that will enhance Auna's service capabilities in Peru [52][53] Question: How do you plan to increase out-of-pocket sales mix in Mexico? - Management outlined initiatives to aggressively capture out-of-pocket patients through packaged services and improved pricing strategies [80][81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported weaker financial results for Q3 2025, with a 5% decline in total adjusted EBITDA primarily due to performance in Mexico [6][9] - Adjusted net income was PEN 58 million for the quarter, with FX-neutral consolidated revenue increasing by 1% [9][22] - Capacity utilization decreased by 3 percentage points to 64%, with a 1.5 percentage point increase in Peru offset by declines in Colombia and Mexico [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru's revenue grew by 9% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 15%, driven by improved healthcare pricing mix and strong insurance MLR [9][19] - Colombia's revenue grew by 5%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 18%, attributed to risk-sharing models and higher average tickets for surgery [20][21] - Mexico experienced a 12% revenue decline, although surgery volumes and oncology services increased [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru accounted for over half of the company's revenues, continuing to be a strong growth driver [21] - Colombia's share of revenues from major government payers decreased from 20% to 13%, indicating successful diversification efforts [20][21] - Mexico's revenue decline was influenced by a slower market and operational challenges, including the implementation of new IT systems [12][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capturing long-term growth opportunities in Mexico, anticipating a full recovery in 2026 [8][30] - Auna is rolling out new service offerings and enhancing collaboration with physicians to penetrate profitable market segments [14][15] - The partnership with Sojitz Corporation aims to accelerate growth in Mexico while maintaining a disciplined deleveraging path [31][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about Mexico's recovery, highlighting stable hospital operations and increased service volumes [6][8] - The company remains committed to improving its leverage ratio to below three times net debt to EBITDA in the medium term [26][27] - Management acknowledged the challenges in Colombia but emphasized the strength of Auna's positioning and growth potential [36][38] Other Important Information - Auna successfully refinanced $765 million in debt, improving its debt profile and extending maturities [26][27] - The company is implementing a comprehensive IT system to enhance operational efficiency and data management [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future strategy in Mexico and the rationale for expanding - Management clarified that the partnership with Sojitz is aimed at accelerating growth in Mexico while maintaining leverage targets [34][35] Question: Potential changes in Colombia's leadership and their impact - Management indicated that while political changes may not yield immediate improvements, there are signs of stabilization in the Colombian healthcare sector [36][38] Question: Key KPIs to track for recovery in 2026 - Management highlighted occupancy, payer mix, and surgical productivity as critical KPIs to monitor for tangible recovery [44] Question: Recent share price weakness and institutional investor activity - Management noted that the current share price does not reflect the company's fundamentals and is evaluating options to enhance shareholder value [45] Question: Return on investment timeline for Mexico performance - Management expects 2026 to be a growth year for Mexico, despite setbacks in 2025 [47] Question: Expansion plans in Peru and Mexico - Management confirmed plans to increase capacity in both countries, focusing on high-complexity services [48] Question: Details on the partnership with Sojitz and investment plans - Management confirmed that the $500 million investment plan is related to the MoU with Sojitz, aimed at significant top-line growth [49][50]