BlackSky and Jumia could have more upside potential than the struggling AI underdog.BigBear.ai (BBAI 20.20%), a developer of artificial intelligence (AI) modules for edge networks, has seen its stock decline nearly 70% since it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Dec. 8, 2021. Like many other SPAC-backed start-ups, BigBear.ai set some ambitious growth targets but missed them by a mile.Prior to going public, BigBear.ai claimed it could grow its annual revenue from $182 ...

Customer Dependency and Revenue Risks - In fiscal years 2024 and 2023, three customers accounted for 88% of total revenue, indicating a high dependency on a small number of clients[70] - The company relies on a limited number of customers for a large portion of revenue, which poses a risk if any major customer is lost[70] - Existing customers' decisions to renew or expand contracts are critical for revenue stability[71] - The sales cycle for products and services is long and unpredictable, impacting revenue recognition timing[65] - The company may not be able to convert its backlog into revenue, as backlog is subject to large variations and may not accurately indicate future earnings[79] - U.S. government contracts included in backlog can be terminated at the government's convenience, potentially affecting revenue realization[80] Financial Performance and Profitability - The company has incurred significant losses each year since inception and cannot assure future profitability[57] - The company has an accumulated deficit of $656.2 million as of December 31, 2024, and has incurred significant losses each year since inception[94] - Revenue growth increased in 2023 and 2024, but there are no assurances that this growth will continue at current rates[61] - The company's results of operations have fluctuated significantly, making it difficult to predict future performance[62] - The company may not be able to offset increases in operating expenses with revenue growth, hindering future profitability[94] Competition and Market Dynamics - The company faces intense competition from larger competitors with greater resources, which may lead to price reductions and loss of market share[86] - The market for the company's products and services is still emerging and may not achieve expected growth, impacting revenue potential[85] - The company faces risks from competitors potentially developing superior technologies that could render its offerings obsolete, impacting contract procurement and growth[107] - Market acceptance of the company's high-resolution imagery products is crucial for revenue, influenced by quality, price, and competition[106] Operational and Technical Risks - The business is capital intensive, and financing future satellites may be challenging[63] - The company relies on third-party computing infrastructure, such as Amazon Web Services and Microsoft, which could adversely affect operations if disruptions occur[103] - The company has significant risks related to satellite launches and in-orbit operations, with potential for substantial impairment charges if insurance coverage is inadequate[108] - The complexity of the company's products may lead to defects or errors, resulting in increased costs and potential damage to customer relationships[114] - Satellites may experience malfunctions, which could reduce expected capacity and revenue generation[151] Regulatory and Compliance Challenges - Government contracts are subject to substantial rights and remedies favoring the government, including unilateral contract modifications and terminations for convenience[127] - The U.S. government can terminate contracts for default, potentially exposing the contractor to liability for additional costs incurred by the government[128] - Compliance with cybersecurity requirements is critical, as failure to meet these standards may delay or prevent contract awards[138] - The company is subject to extensive and evolving government regulations, and non-compliance could have a material adverse effect on business operations[192] - The company is subject to anti-bribery and anti-corruption laws, which have been enforced aggressively and could result in penalties if violated[211] Strategic and Growth Considerations - The company anticipates entering into joint ventures and strategic alliances, which may present significant risks and challenges that could adversely affect its business[225] - Future acquisitions may pose risks such as difficulties in assimilating operations and personnel, which could negatively impact the company's business and financial results[251] - The company acquired the remaining 50% of LeoStella LLC in November 2024, aiming to improve control over the Gen-3 satellite supply chain and production operations[249] - The anticipated benefits from the acquisition of LeoStella may take longer to realize or may not be fully realized, potentially affecting the company's financial condition[250] Economic and Market Conditions - The company is exposed to geopolitical and economic risks that may decrease demand for its products and services[252] - Adverse macroeconomic conditions and U.S. trade policy changes could materially affect the company's business[252] - Changes in credit ratings or macroeconomic conditions could increase borrowing costs and limit financing options, adversely affecting operational resources[191] - The overall financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected if economic conditions worsen[254] Internal Control and Governance - The company must maintain effective internal controls over financial reporting to ensure investor confidence and avoid material misstatements in financial statements[122] - The company is classified as a smaller reporting company, which may limit the comparability of its financial performance with other public companies[234] - There are no current plans to pay cash dividends on Class A common stock for the foreseeable future, with future earnings intended for operations, expansion, and debt repayment[236]

Core Insights - BlackSky Technology, Inc. (NYSE: BKSY) reported revenue of $30.4 million, adjusted EBITDA of $7.4 million, and EPS of ($1.01), which fell short of consensus estimates of $38.7 million, $7.7 million, and ($0.43) respectively [1] - This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA for the company [1] - The Imagery and Software Analytics segment generated revenue of $17.5 million, a decrease of $1.6 million from the prior year, attributed to an upfront delivery of approximately $2.0 million in images for a previous project [1] - The Professional and Engineering segment reported revenue of $12.9 million in Q4 2024, showing a sequential increase due to approximately $7.0 million in deliverables under the Indonesian contract [1] - Consolidated gross margins improved to 77.4%, up from 66.2% in Q3 2024 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA significantly improved to $11.6 million from $(1.0 million) posted last year [1] Future Outlook - BlackSky has successfully launched its first Gen-3 satellite, which began delivering imagery that exceeded customer expectations for initial image quality [6] - The company has been awarded several nine-figure multi-year contracts, with one spanning 7 years [6] - For FY25, BlackSky set its revenue guidance in the range of $125.0 million to $142.0 million, driven by substantial multi-year sales opportunities [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company generated total revenue of $102.1 million, with Imagery & Software Analytical Services revenue growing to $70.1 million, driven by demand from U.S. and international government customers [35][36] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $11.6 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $1 million in 2023, marking the first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA [43][44] - Cash operating expenses for 2024 were $64.9 million, a slight increase from $63.1 million in 2023, primarily due to the integration of LeoStella [38][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Imagery & Software Analytical Services revenue increased by nearly $5 million with minimal cost growth, demonstrating strong operating leverage [36][37] - Professional and engineering services revenue rose to $32 million, driven by support for strategic imagery and analytics customer programs [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured a seven-year contract valued at over $100 million with a strategic international customer, reflecting the essential nature of its services for national and homeland security [21][22] - Contracts totaling approximately $20 million were won to support India's earth observation capabilities, marking entry into a growing market [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its Gen-3 satellite constellation, with plans to launch five additional Gen-3 satellites in 2025 and a total of at least eight within the next 12 months [18][19] - The strategy includes aggressively pursuing new major customers while expanding contracts with existing customers to unlock new revenue growth [51][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the performance of the Gen-3 satellite, which is expected to meet the needs of a rapidly evolving market, and forecasted total revenue growth of 30% in 2025 [32][48] - The company anticipates achieving a full year of adjusted EBITDA between $14 million and $22 million in 2025, supported by strong contract momentum and disciplined cost management [49] Other Important Information - The company ended 2024 with $53.8 million in cash and short-term investments, with expectations of receiving approximately $28 million in payments from major customer contracts over the next 12 months [46] - The acquisition of LeoStella allows the company to have full control over satellite manufacturing capabilities, which is crucial for the rapid deployment of the Gen-3 constellation [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Implications of Gen-3 commissioning going live faster than expected - Management confirmed that the Gen-3 satellite began imaging operations within five days, with exceptional image quality exceeding customer expectations [57][58] Question: Acceleration in launch cadence and CapEx implications - Management clarified that the planned CapEx of $60 million to $70 million was part of the original strategy, with a slight acceleration due to the successful validation of the Gen-3 satellite [60][62] Question: Impact of LeoStella integration on margins - Management indicated that while there are near-term impacts from the integration, long-term efficiencies are expected to improve overall cost and economics [83][84] Question: Revenue mix and growth rates for 2025 - Management noted that growth in 2025 is expected to come primarily from existing contracts, with new customer ramp-up anticipated later in the year as Gen-3 capabilities come online [112][113] Question: Backlog and revenue recognition - Management stated that the backlog stands at approximately $390 million, with about $100 million expected to be realized in 2025 [157]

BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 6, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Aly Bonilla - Vice President-Investor Relations Brian O'Toole - Chief Executive Officer Henry Dubois - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Daniel Hibshman - Craig-Hallum Greg Burns - Sidoti & Company Josh Sullivan - The Benchmark Company Chris Quilty - Quilty Space Edison Yu - Deutsche Bank Jaeson Schmidt - Lake Street Capital Markets Timothy Horan - Oppenheimer Scott Buck - H ...

BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) stock has performed impressively over the past six months. The stock has gained 49.8%, outperforming the industry's 45.3% rally and the 7.6% rise of the Zacks S&P 500 composite.Six Months' Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment Research BKSY’s performance has fallen short of its industry peers, AppLovin Corporation (APP) and Agora, Inc. (API) rallies of 253.4% and 186.3% for the same period, respectively.As of the last trading session, the stock closed at $13.2, 66. ...

BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.39 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.28. This compares to loss of $0.40 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -39.29%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.61 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.66, delivering a surprise of -8.20%.Over the last four quarters, the company ha ...

Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the full year 2024 was $102.1 million, an increase of $7.6 million or 8% from 2023[8] - Imagery and software analytical services revenue for the full year 2024 was $70.1 million, up $4.7 million or 7% over the prior year[8] - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $30,370, a decrease of 14.0% compared to $35,508 in Q4 2023[31] - Imagery & software analytical services revenue decreased to $17,484, down 8.2% from $19,039 in the same quarter last year[31] - Professional & engineering services revenue decreased to $12,886, down 21.0% from $16,469 in Q4 2023[31] - BlackSky expects total revenue for 2025 to grow by 30% over 2024, forecasting between $125 million and $142 million[20] Profitability and Loss - Net loss for the full year 2024 was $57.0 million, compared to a net loss of $53.9 million in 2023[15] - Net loss for the year 2024 was $57,023, compared to a net loss of $53,859 in 2023, representing a 5.9% increase in losses[31] - The company reported a basic and diluted loss per share of $2.66 for 2024, compared to $3.18 in 2023, showing a reduction in loss per share[31] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024 was $11.6 million, a $12.7 million improvement from an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.0 million in 2023[17] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year 2024 was $11,637, compared to $(1,030) in 2023, indicating a significant improvement[37] Expenses and Costs - The cost of sales as a percentage of revenue improved to 27% for the full year 2024, compared to 36% in 2023[10] - Operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $29.6 million, compared to $28.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2023[13] - Cash operating expenses for the year 2024 were $64,887, an increase of 2.8% from $63,142 in 2023[38] Cash Flow and Assets - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $13,056 from $32,815 year-over-year, a decline of 60.2%[33] - Total assets increased to $254,342, up 13.5% from $224,066 in 2023[33] - Total liabilities increased to $160,158, up 22.3% from $130,907 in 2023[33] Capital Expenditures and Contracts - Capital expenditures for the full year 2024 totaled $50.2 million, with expectations for 2025 capital expenditures between $60 million and $70 million[19] - The company secured over $150 million in recent contract awards, increasing the backlog from $261 million to approximately $390 million[12] Product Development - The first Gen-3 satellite was successfully launched and began delivering imagery five days post-launch, exceeding customer expectations[2]

Company Overview - BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) shares increased by 5.9% to $19.96 in the last trading session, with a notable trading volume and a total gain of 55.9% over the past four weeks, driven by rising demand for its advanced high-frequency monitoring and AI-powered analytic services [1] Earnings Expectations - The company is projected to report a quarterly loss of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +30%. Expected revenues are $33.58 million, which is a decrease of 5.4% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for BlackSky Technology has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [3] Industry Context - BlackSky Technology is categorized under the Zacks Technology Services industry, where CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) also operates. PMTS shares increased by 2.1% to $30.33, but have seen a return of -1.1% over the past month [3] - CPI Card Group's consensus EPS estimate for its upcoming report is $0.55, representing a significant year-over-year change of +139.1%, with the estimate remaining unchanged over the past month [4]

BlackSky Technology (BKSY 10.64%) stock has gained 42% over the past 52 weeks -- and its run is not yet done.On Tuesday, the Earth observation satellite operator posted a 15% gain through 3 p.m. ET, after announcing a "six-figure contract ... to provide immediate, subscription-based on-demand Gen-2 imagery and analytics services" to an international customer. BlackSky's "big" newsHow big is a "six-figure" contract? Big enough that I wouldn't mind winning one, to be sure. But for a space stock like BlackSky, ...