One company that I have been very bullish on lately has been electric bus producer Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD ). Even though I am cautious about the electric vehicle market at this time, management has proven itself toCrude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. We focus on cash flow and the companies that generate it, leading to value and growth prospects with real potential.Subscribers get to use a 50+ stock model account, in-depth cash flow a ...

Blue Bird (BLBD) Q2 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 04:30 PM ET Speaker0 This is a holding announcement for the Blue Bird Fiscal twenty twenty five Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. The call will begin shortly. Please stay on the lines. Good morning or good afternoon all, and welcome to the Blue Bird Fiscal twenty twenty five Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator for today. I will now hand the floor to Mark Benefield to begin. Sir, Mark, please go ahead w ...

BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) FY2025 Second Quarter Results 2 Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements Earnings Conference Call May 7, 2025 Agenda | Introductions & | Mark Benfield | | --- | --- | | Forward-Looking Statements | Executive Director, Investor Relations | | Key Results and Highlights | John Wyskiel | | | President & CEO | | Financial Results | Razvan Radulescu | | | CFO | | Outlook | John Wyskiel | | | President & CEO | | Q&A | Group | This presentation includes forward-looking s ...

Over the last year, Blue Bird Corporation ( BLBD ) has given up most of the gains that it generated in May 2024 due to uncertainty regarding a key industry tailwind for the EV school buses. Although theI am a value focused investor, conducting fundamental research on sectors like but not limited to chemicals, homebuilders, building materials, industrials and metals & mining. I prefer to invest in stocks which are cheaply available and have a catalyst in the near future. My investment horizon ranges from a q ...

Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $35.36, reflecting a -0.69% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.58% gain [1] - Over the past month, Blue Bird's shares have increased by 9.98%, surpassing the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 5.01% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.84% [1] Earnings Forecast - Blue Bird is expected to release earnings on May 7, 2025, with a forecasted EPS of $0.96, indicating a 7.87% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects net sales of $390 million, up 12.74% from the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $4 per share and revenue of $1.45 billion, representing increases of +15.61% and +7.92% respectively from the last year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Blue Bird are crucial as they reflect changing business trends and analysts' outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Blue Bird's current Forward P/E ratio is 8.91, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 9.95, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.82, aligning with the average PEG ratio of the Automotive - Domestic industry [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 202, placing it in the bottom 19% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that industries in the top 50% of the Zacks Industry Rank outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry encompasses companies involved in designing, manufacturing, and retailing various types of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, and electric vehicles [2] - The industry is highly consumer cyclic and is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements and digitization [2] Factors Affecting Industry Prospects - The newly introduced tariff by President Trump is expected to worsen affordability issues, with average new car prices nearing $50,000, potentially leading to higher costs for consumers [3] - Economic uncertainty is projected to impact demand, with the Fed reducing its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% and raising core inflation estimates to 2.8% [4] - The introduction of more affordable electric vehicles (EVs), priced at $35,000 or less, is anticipated to attract buyers despite economic challenges [5] Current Industry Ranking and Performance - The Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 188, placing it in the bottom 23% of 250 Zacks industries, indicating dim near-term prospects [6][7] - The industry's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have decreased by 42.9% and 15.6%, respectively, over the past year, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [8] Market Performance - Over the past year, the Domestic Auto industry has outperformed the auto sector but lagged behind the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a decline of 4.2% compared to the sector's 16.4% and S&P 500's 1.9% [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 26.02X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 14.96X and the sector's 14.69X, indicating a premium valuation despite being debt-laden [14] Company Highlights - **Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)**: Engaged in manufacturing school buses, with a strong order backlog of nearly 4,400 units. The company expects a record full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 14% for fiscal 2025 [19][20] - **Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)**: Recognized as a technology innovator in the EV space, with plans for Full Self-Driving services and new product launches expected to enhance profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 7.54% and 9.92%, respectively [23][24] - **General Motors Company (GM)**: Holds a 16.5% market share in the U.S. and has achieved significant cost reductions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GM's 2025 EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 8.58% [27][28]

Core Insights - Economic and political policy changes can have both positive and negative impacts on companies, highlighting the importance of monitoring these factors for investment decisions [1]. Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) has gained attention since July 2023, indicating a potential undervaluation or overlooked investment opportunity by the market [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst, Dilantha De Silva, has over 10 years of experience in the investment industry, focusing on small-cap stocks that are often overlooked by Wall Street [1]. - Dilantha is a CFA Level III candidate and an Associate Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI), showcasing a strong professional background [1]. - His work has been featured on major financial platforms such as CNBC, Bloomberg, Nasdaq, and Yahoo Finance, indicating a reputable presence in the investment community [1].

Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is experiencing significant attention from investors due to high implied volatility in its options market, particularly the Apr 17, 2025 $22.50 Call option [1] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) in the Automotive - Domestic industry, which is positioned in the bottom 17% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] Analyst Insights - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised the earnings estimate for Blue Bird for the current quarter from 92 cents per share to 96 cents, indicating a positive outlook [3] - No analysts have revised their earnings estimates downward during this period, suggesting a stable or improving sentiment towards the company's performance [3] Market Sentiment - The high implied volatility suggests that options traders are anticipating a significant price movement for Blue Bird shares, which could be indicative of an upcoming event that may lead to a substantial rally or sell-off [2][4] - Options traders often seek to capitalize on high implied volatility by selling premium, aiming for the underlying stock to not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1]

Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $34.20, reflecting a -1.53% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.12% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Blue Bird have decreased by 4.14%, compared to a loss of 2.8% in the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector and a 2.91% loss in the S&P 500 [1] Upcoming Earnings - Blue Bird is expected to report an EPS of $0.96, representing a 7.87% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $390 million, which is a 12.74% increase from the year-ago period [2] Annual Forecast - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $4 per share and revenue of $1.5 billion, indicating increases of +15.61% and +10.97%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Blue Bird reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions seen as a good sign for the company's outlook [4] - Adjustments in estimates are directly associated with imminent stock price performance, and the Zacks Rank model incorporates these changes for actionable insights [5] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Blue Bird currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the consensus EPS projection remaining stagnant over the past 30 days [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.69, which is below the industry average of 11.06, and has a PEG ratio of 0.8, matching the industry average [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 209, placing it in the bottom 17% of over 250 industries [8]