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Why Blue Bird Stock Soared More Than 27% Higher This Week
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-09 00:24
Core Insights - Blue Bird has successfully transitioned to alternative fuel vehicles, resulting in significant stock performance and financial results [1][5] - The company achieved record quarterly revenue of $398 million, a 19% increase, and adjusted net income of $38.7 million, up over 26% [2][4] - Analysts underestimated Blue Bird's performance, predicting only $1 per share for adjusted net income and less than $378 million in revenue [4] Financial Performance - Blue Bird's fiscal third quarter saw a stock increase of over 27% due to strong financial results [1] - The adjusted net income per share reached $1.19, exceeding analyst expectations [2][4] - The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $1.45 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $205 million and $215 million [7] Strategic Initiatives - Blue Bird has been actively upgrading its traditional school bus offerings to include alternative fuel options, particularly electric vehicle technology [5] - The company has expanded its leadership in alternative fuel offerings and successfully navigated tariffs imposed by the previous administration [6]
Blue Bird(BLBD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-06 21:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record sales and adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA at $58 million, a 20% increase compared to the previous year [10][23][26] - Revenue for Q3 reached $398 million, which is $65 million or 20% higher than the prior year [11][23] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $52 million, significantly higher than the previous year [23][30] - The company raised its full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $210 million, reflecting a 14.5% margin [33][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 2,467 buses in Q3, marking a 15% increase year-over-year [23] - Electric vehicle (EV) sales reached a record 271 units, which is 33% higher than the previous year [25][26] - Parts revenue remained flat at $26 million year-over-year [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog at the end of Q3 was nearly 4,000 units, indicating a slight decrease due to tariff uncertainties [24][25] - The average selling price for buses increased by approximately $7,700 per unit compared to the previous quarter [14][26] - The company noted that the fleet is aging, leading to a heavy replacement cycle, which is expected to drive future demand [13][54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its manufacturing strategy, including automation and production efficiency improvements [6][9] - Investment in differentiated products and features is planned to drive top-line growth [9][10] - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge in alternative-powered vehicles, particularly in the EV segment [7][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term outlook for EVs, despite current demand softening due to tariff uncertainties [7][16] - The company is well-positioned to navigate tariff impacts to achieve a margin-neutral outcome [10][90] - Management believes the current order drop is temporary and expects a pickup in orders as tariff uncertainties stabilize [54][90] Other Important Information - The company has initiated production at its new MicroBird plant, which will double small bus capacity [18][19] - A new share repurchase program of up to $100 million has been approved, reflecting strong cash flow generation [32][45] - The company is also working on a new commercial chassis, expected to enter production in 2026 [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Order and backlog commentary - Management noted that the drop in backlog was consistent with industry trends and attributed it to tariff uncertainties, which are expected to stabilize [50][52][54] Question: Operational improvements and margin sustainability - Management confirmed that operational improvements have contributed to margin stability and that they are less sensitive to product mix changes [58][60] Question: EV sales visibility and backlog - The company has 500 EV units in backlog and projects to sell about 200 units in Q4, with additional opportunities expected from EPA funding [68][70] Question: Pricing strategy and market conditions - Management discussed their pricing strategy, emphasizing that tariffs are viewed as a tax and that customers understand the need for price adjustments [88][92] Question: Long-term growth outlook and chassis orders - Management highlighted that the new commercial chassis and MicroBird expansion will contribute to revenue growth and profitability [98][99]
Blue Bird(BLBD) - 2025 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2025-08-06 20:39
PART I – FINANCIAL INFORMATION [Item 1. Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=4&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20(Unaudited)) The unaudited financial statements for the period ended June 28, 2025, show significant growth in revenue and net income [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) Total assets grew to $575.5 million while stockholders' equity increased to $221.8 million, reflecting strong earnings growth Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Balance Sheet Item | June 28, 2025 | September 28, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | $173,066 | $127,687 | | Inventories | $151,042 | $127,798 | | Total current assets | $360,673 | $323,379 | | Total assets | $575,450 | $524,894 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | Total current liabilities | $228,579 | $235,973 | | Total liabilities | $353,603 | $365,330 | | Total stockholders' equity | $221,847 | $159,564 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) The company reported strong year-over-year growth in net sales and net income for both Q3 and the first nine months of fiscal 2025 Three Months Ended Performance (in thousands, except per share data) | Metric | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net sales | $398,011 | $333,367 | +19.4% | | Gross profit | $85,928 | $69,353 | +23.9% | | Operating profit | $50,069 | $39,728 | +26.0% | | Net income | $36,455 | $28,711 | +27.0% | | Diluted EPS | $1.12 | $0.85 | +31.8% | Nine Months Ended Performance (in thousands, except per share data) | Metric | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net sales | $1,070,734 | $996,942 | +7.4% | | Gross profit | $217,099 | $196,550 | +10.4% | | Operating profit | $116,822 | $113,752 | +2.7% | | Net income | $91,223 | $80,884 | +12.8% | | Diluted EPS | $2.76 | $2.43 | +13.6% | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=8&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Net cash from operations nearly doubled year-over-year, driven by higher net income and favorable working capital changes Nine Months Ended Cash Flow Summary (in thousands) | Cash Flow Activity | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $111,096 | $55,760 | | Net cash used in investing activities | ($19,065) | ($10,137) | | Net cash used in financing activities | ($46,652) | ($36,195) | | **Change in cash and cash equivalents** | **$45,379** | **$9,428** | - Financing activities in the first nine months of fiscal 2025 were significantly impacted by a **$39.0 million share repurchase program**, which was not present in the prior-year period[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=12&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The notes detail accounting policies, segment performance, and the initiation of a $60 million share repurchase program - The company continues to be impacted by global supply chain constraints, but pricing actions have allowed it to report **gross margins exceeding pre-pandemic levels**[27](index=27&type=chunk) - On January 31, 2024, the Board authorized a share repurchase program for up to **$60 million**, and through June 28, 2025, the company repurchased **1,048,051 shares for $39.0 million**, with **$11.1 million remaining**[73](index=73&type=chunk)[74](index=74&type=chunk) Segment Net Sales (in thousands) | Segment | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | 9 Months 2025 | 9 Months 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Bus | $372,240 | $308,037 | $993,099 | $919,433 | | Parts | $25,771 | $25,330 | $77,635 | $77,509 | Revenue by Product Category - Nine Months Ended (in thousands) | Product Category | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Diesel buses | $367,855 | $318,239 | | Alternative power buses | $582,757 | $560,944 | | Parts | $75,651 | $75,678 | [Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=23&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations.) Management attributes strong performance to robust demand and effective pricing, resulting in a strong backlog and increased Adjusted EBITDA [Executive Overview and Business Impacts](index=24&type=section&id=Executive%20Overview%20and%20Business%20Impacts) The company navigated supply chain disruptions through pricing actions, maintaining strong margins and a backlog of approximately 3,900 units - The company is the **market leader in alternative powered school buses**, including propane, gasoline, and all-electric models[86](index=86&type=chunk) - Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, pricing actions have allowed the company to report **gross profit and margins consistent with fiscal 2024 levels**[92](index=92&type=chunk) - The company's sales **backlog remained strong at approximately 3,900 units** as of June 28, 2025[93](index=93&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=29&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) Q3 net sales grew 19.4% and nine-month net sales rose 7.4%, driven by increased unit bookings and higher pricing - The increase in Bus sales for Q3 was driven by a **14.7% increase in unit bookings** (2,467 units vs 2,151) and a **5.4% increase in average sales price per unit**[118](index=118&type=chunk) Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024 Performance Summary (in thousands) | Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $398,011 | $333,367 | +19.4% | | Gross Profit | $85,928 | $69,353 | +23.9% | | Net Income | $36,455 | $28,711 | +27.0% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $58,479 | $48,246 | +21.2% | | Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 14.7% | 14.5% | +0.2 p.p. | Nine Months 2025 vs 2024 Performance Summary (in thousands) | Metric | 9M 2025 | 9M 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,070,734 | $996,942 | +7.4% | | Gross Profit | $217,099 | $196,550 | +10.4% | | Net Income | $91,223 | $80,884 | +12.8% | | Adjusted EBITDA | $153,438 | $141,601 | +8.4% | | Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 14.3% | 14.2% | +0.1 p.p. | [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=35&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) The company maintains a strong liquidity position, generating $92.9 million in free cash flow during the first nine months of fiscal 2025 - Primary sources of liquidity are cash from operations, cash on hand, and borrowings under the revolving credit facility[156](index=156&type=chunk) Liquidity Position as of June 28, 2025 (in millions) | Item | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Cash and cash equivalents | $173.1 | | Available borrowings on revolving credit facility | $141.7 | Free Cash Flow - Nine Months Ended (in thousands) | Metric | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $111,096 | $55,760 | | Cash paid for fixed assets | ($18,215) | ($10,137) | | **Free Cash Flow** | **$92,881** | **$45,623** | [Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=38&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk.) The company reported no material changes to its market risk exposures since its fiscal 2024 Form 10-K filing - There have been **no material changes** to the company's market risk exposures since the fiscal year 2024 Form 10-K filing[183](index=183&type=chunk) [Item 4. Controls and Procedures](index=38&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures.) Management concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective, with no material changes to internal controls - The Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that the company's **disclosure controls and procedures were effective** as of June 28, 2025[185](index=185&type=chunk) - **No changes in internal control over financial reporting** occurred during the quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, internal controls[186](index=186&type=chunk) PART II – OTHER INFORMATION [Item 1. Legal Proceedings](index=39&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings.) The company does not expect pending legal proceedings to have a material adverse effect on its financial condition - Management does not believe that the outcome of any pending legal proceedings will have a **material adverse effect** on the company's financial statements[188](index=188&type=chunk) [Item 1A. Risk Factors](index=39&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors.) The company highlights risks from potential changes in trade policies, tariffs, and government incentive programs - **Changes in trade policies and tariffs** could increase the cost of components, negatively impacting production costs, profitability, and cash flows[190](index=190&type=chunk) - **Changes in laws or government programs** involving grants and subsidies for alternative-powered school buses may negatively impact customer purchasing decisions[191](index=191&type=chunk) [Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=39&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds.) The company repurchased 245,249 shares for approximately $8.9 million during the third quarter of fiscal 2025 - On January 31, 2024, the Board approved a share repurchase program for up to **$60 million of common stock over 24 months**[193](index=193&type=chunk) - As of June 28, 2025, the approximate dollar value of shares that may yet be purchased under the program is **$11.1 million**[197](index=197&type=chunk) Share Repurchase Activity - Quarter Ended June 28, 2025 | Period (Fiscal Month) | Total Shares Repurchased | Average Price Paid per Share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | March 30 - April 26, 2025 | 73,400 | $34.08 | | April 27 - May 24, 2025 | 70,150 | $36.17 | | May 25 - June 28, 2025 | 101,699 | $38.36 | | **Total** | **245,249** | | [Item 5. Other Information](index=40&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information.) No company directors or officers adopted or terminated Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements during the third quarter - **No directors or officers adopted or terminated** any "Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" or "non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" during the third quarter of fiscal 2025[198](index=198&type=chunk) [Item 6. Exhibits](index=41&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits.) This section lists exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including officer certifications and XBRL interactive data files - The exhibits filed with the report include **CEO and CFO certifications** pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a) and Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, as well as **XBRL data files**[199](index=199&type=chunk)
Blue Bird(BLBD) - 2025 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2025-08-06 20:32
[Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Fiscal%202025%20Third%20Quarter%20Financial%20Results) This report details Blue Bird's record-breaking Q3 FY2025 financial results, including executive highlights, updated FY2025 guidance, comprehensive financial performance analysis, and supplementary information [Executive Summary & Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Executive%20Summary%20%26%20Highlights) Blue Bird achieved record Q3 FY2025 revenue and profit, exceeding guidance with $398 million net sales and $58.5 million Adjusted EBITDA, alongside a new $100 million share buy-back program Key Financial Metrics | Metric | Three Months Ended June 28, 2025 | Nine Months Ended June 28, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Unit Sales** | 2,467 units | 6,892 units | | **Revenue (GAAP)** | $398.0M | $1,070.7M | | **Net Income (GAAP)** | $36.5M | $91.2M | | **Diluted EPS (GAAP)** | $1.12 | $2.76 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $58.5M | $153.4M | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS** | $1.19 | $3.05 | - The company achieved a new all-time quarterly record for revenue and profit, driven by improved operations and leadership in alternative-powered buses[3](index=3&type=chunk) - Blue Bird delivered a record **271 electric-powered buses** in Q3 and has a total of **1,200 EV buses** either sold or in its firm order backlog[4](index=4&type=chunk) [FY2025 Guidance and Long-Term Outlook](index=1&type=section&id=FY2025%20Guidance%20and%20Long-Term%20Outlook) The company raised FY2025 guidance to $1.45 billion Net Revenue and $205-$215 million Adjusted EBITDA, while increasing its long-term Adjusted EBITDA margin target to 16%+ FY2025 Financial Guidance | FY2025 Guidance | Value | | :--- | :--- | | Net Revenue | ~$1.45 Billion | | Adjusted EBITDA | $205M - $215M | | Adjusted Free Cash Flow | $90M - $100M | - The company announced a new **$100 million share repurchase program**, signaling confidence in its profitable growth plans[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Long-term profit outlook has been raised, targeting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of **16%+** on approximately **$2 billion in revenue**[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Financial Performance Analysis](index=2&type=section&id=Financial%20Performance%20Analysis) The company demonstrated significant year-over-year financial growth in Q3 and YTD FY2025, driven by increased bus unit sales, favorable product mix, and effective pricing strategies [Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Results](index=2&type=section&id=Fiscal%202025%20Third%20Quarter%20Results) Q3 FY2025 net sales grew **19.4%** to **$398.0 million**, with gross profit increasing by **$16.6 million** and Adjusted EBITDA rising by **$10.2 million** to **$58.5 million** Q3 FY2025 Financial Performance | Q3 FY2025 Metric | Value | Change vs. Q3 FY2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $398.0M | +$64.6M (+19.4%) | | Gross Profit | $85.9M | +$16.6M | | Net Income | $36.5M | +$7.7M | | Adjusted EBITDA | $58.5M | +$10.2M | - Bus sales increased by **20.8%**, reflecting a **14.7%** increase in unit bookings (**2,467 units** vs. 2,151) and a **5.4%** increase in average sales price per unit[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The increase in net sales was primarily due to higher bus unit bookings, product mix changes, and price increases intended to mitigate the impact of tariffs[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Year-to-Date Fiscal 2025 Results](index=2&type=section&id=Year-to-Date%20Fiscal%202025%20Results) YTD FY2025 net sales increased **7.4%** to **$1,070.7 million**, with gross profit growing by **$20.5 million** and Adjusted EBITDA rising by **$11.8 million** to **$153.4 million** YTD FY2025 Financial Performance | YTD FY2025 Metric | Value | Change vs. YTD FY2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Sales | $1,070.7M | +$73.8M (+7.4%) | | Gross Profit | $217.1M | +$20.5M | | Net Income | $91.2M | +$10.3M | | Adjusted EBITDA | $153.4M | +$11.8M | - Bus sales for the nine-month period increased **8.0%**, with **6,892 units** booked compared to 6,534 in the prior year period[14](index=14&type=chunk) - The increase in selling, general and administrative expenses was partly due to share-based compensation related to the retirement of the former President and CEO[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Financial Statements](index=6&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements) The unaudited consolidated financial statements as of June 28, 2025, show total assets at **$575.5 million**, cash at **$173.1 million**, and stockholders' equity at **$221.8 million**, with **$111.1 million** cash from operations [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of June 28, 2025, total assets reached **$575.5 million**, cash and cash equivalents increased to **$173.1 million**, and total stockholders' equity grew to **$221.8 million** Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (in millions) | Balance Sheet Item | June 28, 2025 | September 28, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Cash and cash equivalents | $173.1M | $127.7M | | Total current assets | $360.7M | $323.4M | | Total assets | $575.5M | $524.9M | | Total current liabilities | $228.6M | $236.0M | | Total liabilities | $353.6M | $365.3M | | Total stockholders' equity | $221.8M | $159.6M | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) For the nine months ended June 28, 2025, net sales reached **$1,070.7 million**, resulting in **$91.2 million** net income and **$2.76** diluted EPS Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (in millions, except per share data) | Income Statement (Nine Months Ended) | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net sales | $1,070.7M | $996.9M | | Gross profit | $217.1M | $196.6M | | Operating profit | $116.8M | $113.8M | | Net income | $91.2M | $80.9M | | Diluted earnings per share | $2.76 | $2.43 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=8&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For the nine months ended June 28, 2025, operating activities generated **$111.1 million** cash, with **$19.1 million** used in investing and **$46.7 million** in financing, ending with **$173.1 million** cash Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (in millions) | Cash Flow (Nine Months Ended) | June 28, 2025 | June 29, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash from operating activities | $111.1M | $55.8M | | Net cash used in investing activities | ($19.1M) | ($10.1M) | | Net cash used in financing activities | ($46.7M) | ($36.2M) | | Change in cash and cash equivalents | $45.4M | $9.4M | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | $173.1M | $88.4M | [Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=9&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) This section details reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures, including Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Diluted EPS, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow, for Q3 and YTD FY2025 Reconciliation to Adjusted EBITDA (in thousands) | Reconciliation to Adjusted EBITDA (in thousands) | Three Months Ended June 28, 2025 | Nine Months Ended June 28, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net income | $36,455 | $91,223 | | Adjustments (Interest, Tax, D&A, etc.) | $22,024 | $62,215 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | **$58,479** | **$153,438** | Reconciliation to Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reconciliation to Adjusted Diluted EPS | Three Months Ended June 28, 2025 | Nine Months Ended June 28, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Diluted EPS (GAAP) | $1.12 | $2.76 | | One-time charge adjustments, net of tax | $0.07 | $0.29 | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP)** | **$1.19** | **$3.05** | - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for the nine months ended June 28, 2025, was **$92.9 million**, a substantial increase from **$48.7 million** in the prior year period[45](index=45&type=chunk) [Supplementary Information](index=3&type=section&id=Supplementary%20Information) This section provides investor conference call details, a company overview, definitions of non-GAAP financial measures, and forward-looking statement disclaimers - The company will host a conference call and webcast to discuss its third quarter 2025 results[20](index=20&type=chunk)[23](index=23&type=chunk) - Blue Bird leads in low- and zero-emission school buses, with over **20,000** propane, natural gas, and electric buses in operation[22](index=22&type=chunk) - The report includes non-GAAP measures like Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, which management uses for performance evaluation, incentive compensation, and covenant compliance[24](index=24&type=chunk)
Blue Bird(BLBD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-08-06 20:30
Financial Performance Highlights - Blue Bird's Q3 FY2025 net sales reached $398 million, a $65 million increase compared to Q3 FY2024[20, 25] - The company's Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 FY2025 was $58 million, up $10 million from Q3 FY2024[20, 25] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q3 FY2025 was $52 million, a $56 million increase compared to Q3 FY2024[20, 25] - Blue Bird is raising its full-year FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $210 million and expects ~14.5% margin[36, 37] - The company's Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.7%, a 20 bps increase compared to Q3 FY2024[21, 27] Business Operations and Backlog - The company sold 2,467 units in Q3 FY2025, an increase of 316 units compared to Q3 FY2024[20, 25] - Blue Bird has a strong backlog of approximately 3,900 units, valued at around $618 million[20, 27] - The company has approximately $174 million in firm orders for electric vehicles (EVs) in its backlog[20] - Alternative power sales accounted for 61% of the sales mix[20] Future Outlook and Capital Allocation - Blue Bird anticipates approximately $1.5 billion in revenue for FY2026, with an Adjusted EBITDA of around $220 million, representing a margin of approximately 14.5%[39] - The company has initiated a new share repurchase program of up to $100 million over two years[32, 34, 52]
Blue Bird: Too Much Government Support For Me
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-10 13:09
Group 1 - Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is currently facing short-term supply chain challenges but is managing them effectively with a strong backlog of 4,900 units, revenue growth, and margin expansion [1] - The company operates primarily in a mature market, which may limit growth potential compared to emerging markets [1] - There is a belief that the market is overly focused on short-term issues, leading to mispricing of fundamentally strong companies, which presents potential long-term investment opportunities [1]
Blue Bird (BLBD) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-02 12:21
Financial Performance and Guidance - Blue Bird confirms FY25 revenue guidance of $1425 million to $1475 million[45] - The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $200 million with a margin of ~14% for FY25[45, 47] - Q2 FY25 adjusted EBITDA reached $49 million with a 14% margin, marking a $3 million increase compared to Q2 FY24[66, 67, 69] - Adjusted free cash flow for Q2 FY25 was $19 million[66, 69] Industry and Market Position - The school bus industry is expected to reach approximately 31,000 units in FY25[22] - Over 47% of school buses in service are 10 years or older, supporting replacement demand[24] - Blue Bird holds a leading market position in alternative power and electric school buses, with over 60% of sales being non-diesel[31, 34] Strategic Initiatives - Blue Bird is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through the introduction of an EV commercial chassis offering[15, 40] - The company is focused on reducing structural costs through Lean Transformation initiatives[15] - Blue Bird was awarded an $80 million grant by the DOE for a new plant to support profitable growth plans for 12,000+ units[50, 52]
Blue Bird (BLBD) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note
ZACKS· 2025-07-01 22:51
Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $44.20, reflecting a +2.41% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.11% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Blue Bird gained 13.71%, significantly surpassing the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's decline of 5.6% and the S&P 500's increase of 5.17% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Blue Bird is expected to report an EPS of $0.9, which represents a 1.1% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects net sales of $375 million, indicating a 12.49% increase from the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $3.74 per share and revenue of $1.42 billion, reflecting increases of +8.09% and +5.61% respectively from the last year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Blue Bird are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends [4] - Upward revisions in estimates indicate analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Blue Bird currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 11.53, which aligns with its industry's Forward P/E of 11.53, and has a PEG ratio of 0.97 compared to the industry average of 1.15 [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 213, placing it in the bottom 14% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]
Blue Bird (BLBD) Surpasses Market Returns: Some Facts Worth Knowing
ZACKS· 2025-06-23 22:51
Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $42.88, reflecting a +2.17% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.96% [1] - Over the past month, Blue Bird's shares have risen by 8.65%, while the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector has declined by 6.24% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Analysts expect Blue Bird to report earnings of $0.9 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 1.1% [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $375 million, representing a 12.49% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.74 per share, with revenue expected to reach $1.42 billion, reflecting changes of +8.09% and +5.61% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a positive outlook for the business [3][4] Valuation Metrics - Blue Bird has a Forward P/E ratio of 11.21, which is in line with its industry's Forward P/E [5] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.95, compared to the Automotive - Domestic industry's average PEG ratio of 1.12 [6] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry is part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, which has a Zacks Industry Rank of 188, placing it in the bottom 24% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]
Blue Bird Still Looks Cheap For A Stock With This Much Visibility
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-15 12:33
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of strong foundational companies in the technology, industrial, and conglomerate sectors for long-term success [1] - It highlights the dual approach of analyzing financial data while narrating the stories and strategies of businesses to provide insights into market performance [1] - The focus on both quantitative analysis and qualitative storytelling reflects a commitment to understanding and explaining the financial landscape [1]