BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) FY2026 First Quarter Results February 4, 2026 1 Agenda Introductions & Forward-Looking Statements Mark Benfield Investor Relations Lead | Key Results and Highlights | John Wyskiel | | --- | --- | | | President & CEO | | Financial Results | Razvan Radulescu | | | CFO | | Outlook | John Wyskiel | | | President & CEO | | Q&A | Group | This presentation includes forward-looking statements, including statements regarding full-year guidance and seasonality, that are subject to ...

BLUE BIRD REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS Net Sales of $333M and GAAP Net Income of $31M Adj. EBITDA of $50M with 15% Margin and 2,135 Buses Sold FY2026 Adj. EBITDA Guidance Raised MACON, Ga. (February 4, 2026) – Blue Bird Corporation ("Blue Bird") (Nasdaq: BLBD), the leader in electric and low-emission school buses, announced today its fiscal 2026 first quarter financial results. Highlights | (in millions except Unit Sales and EPS data) | | Three Months Ended December 27, 2025 | | B/(W) Prior Yea ...

Core Viewpoint - Blue Bird Corporation, a leader in electric and cleaner-emission school buses, will release its fiscal 2026 first quarter results on February 4, 2026, with an audio webcast featuring key executives discussing the results [1]. Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation (Nasdaq: BLBD) has been a technology leader and innovator in the school bus industry since its founding in 1927, focusing on safety, reliability, and durability [3]. - The company has sold over 25,000 propane, natural gas, and electric-powered buses, establishing itself as a leader in low- and zero-emission school buses [3]. - Blue Bird is committed to transforming the student transportation industry through cleaner energy solutions, emphasizing the importance of safety for the 25 million children transported daily [3].

Core Insights - Blue Bird Corporation shares closed at $50.91 on December 10, 2025, reflecting a 27.24% increase over the trailing year, with CFO Razvan Radulescu retaining a holding valued at approximately $2.5 million post-sale [1][5] - The company specializes in manufacturing school buses and related parts, including alternative fuel and electric vehicle offerings, leveraging nearly a century of operational experience [6] - Radulescu's recent share sale of 7,984 shares for approximately $402,300 was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, indicating a prearranged schedule for transactions [7][5] Financial Performance - Blue Bird Corporation reported record financial results for fiscal year 2025, with the highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA to date [9] - The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance for net revenue at approximately $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $220 million, with a long-term profit outlook targeting an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 16% on approximately $2 billion in revenue [9] Market Position - The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, returning over 27% compared to the benchmark's gain of about 14%, and has increased by 137% over the past five years compared to the market's 83% gain [8] - Blue Bird's focus on innovation and alternative energy solutions positions it as a key supplier for safe, efficient, and sustainable transportation for students [6]

Industry Overview - The auto industry is undergoing a transformation with electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs) reshaping the future of mobility, driven by advances in battery technology and a growing charging network [1] - The adoption of EVs varies by region, with the U.S. facing temporary obstacles due to policy changes, while China leads the transition supported by competitive pricing and government backing [3] - Global EV sales are projected to reach nearly 90 million units by 2040, accounting for 27.5% of total sales in 2026, 43.2% by 2030, and over 83% by 2040 [4] Competitive Landscape - Tesla has historically led the EV market, but competition is intensifying with the emergence of Chinese automakers and new EV-only startups, providing consumers with more choices [2] - The autonomous vehicle market is valued at approximately $1.5 trillion in 2022 and is expected to exceed $13.6 trillion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 32% from 2023 to 2030 [4] Key Companies - **Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)**: A leading provider of low- and zero-emission school buses, with over 20,000 buses in operation. The company is expanding its services and is well-positioned to benefit from trends in clean transportation [8][10] - **WeRide Inc. (WRD)**: A leader in autonomous driving with a fleet of over 1,600 AVs, including robotaxis. The company is expanding its operations globally and commercializing various autonomous vehicle solutions [11][14] - **Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS)**: Focused on electric commercial vehicles, the company has a strong sales pipeline and partnerships with major fleets. It aims to capture growth in the medium-duty truck market [15][17] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Through its subsidiary Zoox, Amazon is entering the autonomous driving space with robotaxi services in Las Vegas and plans for expansion. Zoox's unique design positions it as a competitor in the robotaxi market [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - Blue Bird Corporation announced the immediate resignation of Phil Horlock from its Board of Directors, marking a significant leadership change for the company [1] Company Summary - Phil Horlock served as President & CEO of Blue Bird for over 12 years, during which he led the company through transformative growth and operational excellence [1] - The company is recognized as a leader in electric and clean-emission school buses, indicating its commitment to sustainability and innovation in the transportation sector [1]

Industry Overview - The auto industry in 2025 is navigating policy uncertainty and shifting incentives, with U.S. new-vehicle sales expected to reach about 16.3 million units, the strongest level since 2019 [1] - Sales are projected to settle near 16 million units in 2026 as pricing, inventory, and dealer supply normalize, with growth driven by real consumer demand rather than short-term incentives [2] - Affordability remains a key theme, with higher-income buyers supporting demand for larger vehicles while cost-conscious shoppers lean towards used and off-lease options [3] Company Insights Garrett Motion - Garrett Motion develops advanced turbocharging and zero-emission technologies, securing new light-vehicle turbo programs and expecting over $40 million in lifetime revenues from turbochargers used in data-center backup power systems [6][7] - The company raised its 2025 profit outlook and approved a $250 million share repurchase program for 2026, with a Wall Street average price target of $20.75/share suggesting a nearly 19% upside [8] Standard Motor Products - Standard Motor Products specializes in premium automotive replacement parts, with demand driven by an aging vehicle fleet and long-term growth themes like electrification and affordability [9] - The acquisition of Nissens in November 2024 is expected to deliver $8-12 million in annualized cost savings, with a Wall Street average price target of $47/share suggesting a nearly 25% upside [11][12] Blue Bird Corporation - Blue Bird is a leader in low- and zero-emission school buses, with a record delivery of 901 electric buses in fiscal 2025 and an order backlog of 680 electric buses supporting its 2026 sales outlook [13][14] - The company targets $1.5 billion in revenues and $220 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026, with a Wall Street average price target of $56.71/share suggesting a nearly 12% upside [15] WeRide Inc. - WeRide is a leader in the autonomous driving space with a fleet of over 1,600 AVs, including robotaxis and driverless licenses across eight countries, and is expanding its commercial operations [16][17] - The company has an attractive average broker recommendation of 1.42, with a Wall Street average price target of $15/share suggesting a nearly 72% upside [18]

Company Performance - Blue Bird (BLBD) closed at $50.74, down 2.12% from the previous trading session, which is less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.03% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Blue Bird have decreased by 1.71%, underperforming the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, which gained 12.09%, and the S&P 500, which gained 2.57% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Blue Bird is expected to report an EPS of $0.8, reflecting a decrease of 13.04% from the prior-year quarter, with anticipated revenue of $350 million, indicating an 11.51% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $4.21 per share and revenue of $1.57 billion, representing changes of -3.88% and +5.74% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Blue Bird suggest optimism regarding the business and profitability, as positive revisions typically reflect favorable near-term business trends [3] Zacks Rank - Blue Bird currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the consensus EPS projection having increased by 1.63% in the past 30 days [5] Valuation Metrics - Blue Bird has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.31, which is lower than the industry average of 16.69, indicating that Blue Bird is trading at a discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.37, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.97 [6] Industry Overview - The Automotive - Domestic industry, which includes Blue Bird, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 76, placing it in the top 31% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Industry Overview - Global electric vehicle (EV) sales reached approximately 2 million units in November 2025, totaling around 18.5 million vehicles year-to-date, representing a 21% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][10] - EVs accounted for over one-quarter of all new cars sold worldwide in 2025 [1][10] - Europe experienced a significant growth in EV sales, with November sales up 36% year-over-year, driven by new incentives and a broader range of available models [2][10] Market Dynamics - China and Europe are expected to remain leaders in EV adoption, with emerging regions like the Middle East and Africa anticipated to see faster growth in 2026 due to improved financing and more affordable models [4] - The global EV penetration is projected to reach 26.7% in 2026 [4] - The expansion of charging infrastructure is critical for EV adoption, with ongoing investments from public and private sectors enhancing the viability of long-distance travel for EV users [5] Company Insights General Motors (GM) - GM is the top-selling automaker in the U.S., holding a 17% market share in Q3 2025, up 50 basis points year-over-year, and retained its 2 spot in the U.S. EV market with 67,000 deliveries and a 16.5% share [7][9] - The company benefits from the federal government's Auto Tariff Offset Process, enhancing its cost competitiveness and supporting U.S.-based manufacturing [8] - GM has a Zacks Rank 1, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS implying year-over-year growth of 12.9% [9] BorgWarner (BWA) - BorgWarner is a leader in clean and efficient technology solutions for combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicles, securing several new programs in Q3 2025 [11] - The company booked 17 awards over the past six months, broadening its customer base and increasing hybrid and EV exposure [12] - BWA carries a Zacks Rank 2, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 sales and EPS implying year-over-year growth of 2.1% and 6.8%, respectively [13] Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) - Blue Bird is a leading player in low- and zero-emission school buses, well-positioned to benefit from long-term trends such as a growing school-age population and ongoing federal funding for clean transportation [14] - The company expects fiscal 2026 revenues of $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $220 million, anticipating continued profitable growth [15] - BLBD carries a Zacks Rank 2, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 sales implying year-over-year growth of 5.7% [16]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is positioned as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that will benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports [5][6] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened with debt [8][10] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potentially undervalued investment opportunity in the context of its critical role in the AI and energy sectors [10][12] Market Trends - The article discusses the broader trends of onshoring driven by tariffs and a surge in U.S. LNG exports, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [14][7] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive rapid advancements and innovation, further solidifying the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12][11] Conclusion - The narrative emphasizes the urgency for investors to engage in the AI market, suggesting that the time to act is now to capitalize on the anticipated growth and disruption caused by AI technologies [13][15]