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Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation, listed on NASDAQ as BLBD, is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America with a history of innovation and quality in the transportation industry [1] Recent Performance - BLBD's recent performance shows a monthly decline of 1.28%, with a sharper loss of 7.40% in the past 10 days, which may present a strategic entry point for investors despite initial concerns [2] Growth Potential - The growth potential for BLBD is significant, with an estimated increase of 43.70%, indicating that the current market price may not fully reflect the company's value [3][6] Financial Health - A Piotroski Score of 8 for BLBD indicates strong financial health, reflecting the company's profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency, suggesting it is well-managed and financially stable [4][6] Target Price - The target price for BLBD is set at $73, which aligns with its growth potential and suggests a substantial increase from its current price, reflecting confidence in the company's market position and financial strength [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong Q4 earnings report from Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD), which showed both top-line and bottom-line outperformance, the stock experienced a decline of 5.5% following the earnings release, indicating market disappointment or concerns not reflected in the earnings figures [1] Financial Performance - Blue Bird Corporation reported impressive Q4 earnings, highlighting significant performance in both revenue and net income, which typically would be viewed positively by investors [1] Market Reaction - The market's reaction to the earnings report was negative, with a notable 5.5% drop in the stock price, suggesting that investors may have had different expectations or concerns that overshadowed the positive earnings results [1]

Core Insights - Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) reported strong Q4 earnings, with both top-line and bottom-line outperforming expectations, yet the stock price fell by 5.5% post-earnings release [1] Financial Performance - The Q4 earnings release showcased significant financial performance, indicating robust revenue and profit growth for Blue Bird Corporation [1] Market Reaction - Despite the positive earnings report, the market reacted negatively, leading to a notable decline in the stock price, suggesting potential investor concerns or market dynamics at play [1]

Core Insights - Rockland Resources Ltd. announced initial gold assay results of up to 145 g/t from its Cole Gold Mine Property, located in the Red Lake Gold Mining District, Ontario [1][2] - The company appointed Danae Voormeij as Chief Geologist, who brings over 20 years of experience in gold and copper exploration [5][6] Gold Assay Results - The Fall 2025 prospecting program yielded gold assays of up to 111 g/t and 145 g/t from grab sampling of veins [2][7] - A total of 37 rock and vein samples were collected, with 22 results returned from the lab, while 15 samples are pending [2][11] - Notable samples include: - Sample ID 489969: 145.0 g/t Au from a quartz vein with visible gold [4] - Sample ID 489968: 111.0 g/t Au from a quartz vein with visible gold [4] Appointment of Chief Geologist - Danae Voormeij, PGeo, has been appointed as Chief Geologist, recognized for her expertise in orogenic gold systems and geological modeling [5][6] - Voormeij previously led the discovery of a multi-million gold deposit in Liberia and serves on the boards of Miata Metals and Sky Gold Corp [5] Future Plans - The company plans to conduct drilling and trenching programs in 2026 to further explore the identified gold-bearing veins [7][11] - Upcoming activities include drilling to a vertical depth of 400m to verify the 3D-modelled gold-vein system at the Cole Gold Mine [11] Property Insights - Fieldwork in 2025 identified multiple visible-gold-bearing vein targets on the Cole Gold Property, in addition to the existing vein system [6][10] - The location of the 2025 sampling indicates significant geological structures that control gold mineralization [8][10]

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Core Insights - Blue Bird (BLBD) reported quarterly earnings of $1.32 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.97 per share, and showing an increase from $0.77 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +36.08% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $409.37 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.73% and up from $350.21 million year-over-year [2] - Blue Bird shares have increased approximately 39.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 12.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.86 on revenues of $350 million, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $4.15 on revenues of $1.57 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Blue Bird was mixed prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, to which Blue Bird belongs, is currently ranked in the top 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Another company in the same industry, REV Group (REVG), is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.78 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +52.9% with revenues projected at $647.12 million, up 8.2% from the previous year [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blue Bird achieved record sales and adjusted EBITDA for Fiscal 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $221 million, representing 15% of revenue, which is $38 million higher than the previous year [7][20][21] - Total revenue for Fiscal 2025 reached $1.48 billion, an increase of $133 million compared to the prior year [7][19] - Adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $43.4 million, a 68% improvement year-over-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 9,409 buses in Fiscal 2025, with an average bus revenue per unit of $146,000, up $8,000 from the previous year [7][19] - Electric vehicle (EV) sales totaled 901 units for the year, marking a 30% increase compared to the previous year [7][19] - Parts revenue for the year remained flat at $103 million, indicating strong demand due to an aging fleet [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog at the end of Q4 was 3,100 units, which included 680 EVs, but has since increased to nearly 4,000 units [8][16] - Year-over-year selling prices for buses increased by almost $8,300 per unit, reflecting pricing actions and tariff recovery [9] - The company maintains a strong position in the alternative powered vehicles segment, with all powered buses representing 56% of mixed unit sales for the year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Blue Bird is focusing on long-term manufacturing strategies, including automation and production efficiency improvements [4][6] - The company plans to invest in projects with clear returns and aims to maintain a disciplined pricing strategy [5][6] - The outlook for EVs remains optimistic, with expectations of stable demand supported by government funding programs [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff volatility and maintaining margin-neutral outcomes [7] - The company anticipates a heavy replacement cycle in the school bus market, driven by an aging fleet and pent-up demand [9] - Management remains cautious about the impact of tariffs and material costs but expects strong demand to continue [24] Other Important Information - Blue Bird ended the year with $229 million in cash and a liquidity of $371 million, reflecting a strong financial position [22][23] - The company has repurchased $40 million worth of shares during the year and plans to continue returning value to shareholders [23][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Importance of federal EV bus program for Fiscal 2026 guidance - Management indicated that Fiscal 2026 guidance does not rely on rounds four and five of the federal EV program, with a strong backlog supporting the outlook [39][41] Question: Order season and demand outlook - Management acknowledged that while the order season typically picks up after the Christmas break, they are confident in the underlying demand fundamentals [43][45] Question: Commercial chassis project details - Management confirmed that prototypes are being tested and received positively by customers, indicating potential for market entry [47][48] Question: EV backlog and state incentive programs - Management noted that New Jersey's updated incentive program reflects a trend of increasing state-level funding for EVs, which is expected to continue [70][72] Question: Pricing dynamics and guidance for first half versus second half - Management explained that pricing stability and the new price increase will impact the second half of the fiscal year, with a ramp expected in production [60][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blue Bird achieved record sales and Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025, with Adjusted EBITDA at $221 million, representing 15% of revenue, which is $38 million higher than the previous year [7][20][34] - Total revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $1.48 billion, an increase of $133 million compared to the prior year [7][20] - Free cash flow for the year was $153 million, marking a significant achievement [8][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 9,409 buses in fiscal 2025, with an average bus revenue per unit of $146,000, up $8,000 from the previous year [7][19] - Electric vehicle (EV) sales totaled 901 units, representing a 30% increase year-over-year [7][19] - Parts revenue remained stable at $103 million, reflecting strong demand due to an aging fleet [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog at the end of fiscal 2025 was 3,100 units, which is expected to increase to nearly 4,000 units, including 850 EVs [4][16] - Year-over-year selling prices for buses increased by approximately $8,300 per unit, driven by pricing actions and tariff recovery [9][19] - The company noted that the fleet is aging, leading to a heavy replacement cycle and pent-up demand in the market [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Blue Bird is focusing on long-term manufacturing strategies, including automation and production efficiency improvements [4][6] - The company aims to maintain its leadership in alternative powered vehicles, particularly in the EV segment, with a strong outlook for future demand [5][10] - Investment in projects with clear returns is a priority, with plans to enhance manufacturing capabilities and product offerings [6][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff volatility and maintaining margin-neutral outcomes [7][11] - The outlook for EVs remains optimistic, supported by government funding programs and stable demand [10][34] - The company anticipates a strong demand driven by an aging fleet and stable pricing, despite some headwinds from tariffs and material costs [22][23] Other Important Information - Blue Bird's liquidity reached a record $371 million, with $229 million in cash at year-end [22] - The company plans to invest up to $200 million in manufacturing capabilities over the next two years while also returning value to shareholders through stock buybacks [28][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Importance of federal EV bus program for fiscal 2026 guidance - Management indicated that fiscal 2026 guidance does not rely on federal funding rounds four and five, with a strong backlog supporting the outlook for 750 EV sales [37][39] Question: Order season and demand outlook - Management acknowledged strong fundamentals and a stable demand outlook, with confidence in production capabilities to meet potential increases in demand [41][42] Question: Commercial chassis project details - Prototypes are undergoing testing, and initial customer feedback has been positive, indicating a favorable market reception [44][45] Question: EV backlog and state incentive programs - Management confirmed an increase in EV backlog and noted that state-level funding programs are becoming increasingly significant drivers of demand [65][68] Question: Competitive dynamics in the school bus market - Management stated it is too early to assess any significant competitive shifts in the market, with no meaningful changes observed so far [83][88]

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