Olena_T We previously covered Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:BLBD) in May 2024, discussing its robust prospects, thanks to the pent-up demand for school bus replacements after multiple delays over the past three years. Combined with the improved sales across electric/ low-emission school buses against its competitors, compared to the massive electrification trend over the next decade, we had initiated a Buy rating upon a moderate retracement for an improved margin of safety. Since then, BLBD has retra ...

Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 7, 2024 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Mark Benfield - IR Phil Horlock - CEO Razvan Radulescu - CFO Conference Call Participants Mike Shlisky - D. A. Davidson. Chris Pierce - Needham Eric Stine - Craig-Hallum Sherif El-Sabbahy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Operator Hello all and welcome to Blue Bird's Fiscal 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lydia and I'll be your operator today. After the prepared remarks t ...

Group 1 - Blue Bird (BLBD) reported quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.50 per share, and up from $0.44 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 82% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $333.37 million for the quarter ended June 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.02%, and an increase from $294.28 million year-over-year [2] - Blue Bird has consistently outperformed consensus EPS and revenue estimates over the last four quarters [2] Group 2 - The stock has gained approximately 79.9% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 9.9% [3] - The future performance of Blue Bird's stock will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the sustainability of the recent price movements [3][4] - Current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.54 on revenues of $335 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.88 on revenues of $1.33 billion [7] Group 3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Automotive - Domestic sector is currently in the bottom 17% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - The correlation between near-term stock movements and earnings estimate revisions suggests that tracking these revisions can provide insights into future stock performance [5][6]

Supply Chain Disruptions - The company experienced significant supply chain disruptions that began in the second half of fiscal 2021 and continued into fiscal 2024, impacting production capabilities and increasing costs[86]. - Supply chain constraints have resulted in significant economic disruption, adversely affecting the company's operations and cash flows[88]. - The impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have contributed to higher inventory purchase costs and volatility in commodity prices, further straining the supply chain[95]. - The company has no direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia but has been affected indirectly through increased costs of materials and components[91]. - Management believes that ongoing supply chain disruptions could continue to materially impact results if parts and supplies cannot be obtained in sufficient quantities[88]. - Supply chain disruptions continued to impact operations, limiting the number of school buses produced and sold, while also increasing manufacturing costs[153]. Financial Performance - Net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2024 were $333.4 million, an increase of $39.1 million, or 13.3%, compared to $294.3 million for the same period in fiscal 2023[112]. - Net sales for the nine months ended June 29, 2024, were $996.9 million, an increase of $167.1 million, or 20.1%, compared to $829.8 million for the same period in 2023[126]. - Operating profit for the third quarter was $39.7 million, an increase of $20.3 million compared to $19.4 million for the same period in fiscal 2023[116]. - Operating profit was $113.8 million, an increase of $91.3 million compared to $22.5 million for the same period in 2023[133]. - The company experienced a significant increase in net income of $75.7 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2024 compared to the same period in fiscal 2023[164]. Cost and Pricing - The company faced higher inventory purchase costs, including freight costs, which negatively impacted gross profit beginning in the latter part of fiscal 2022 and continuing into fiscal 2024[95]. - The company has implemented periodic pricing actions to ensure that sales prices keep pace with increased costs to procure inventory[86]. - The company reported that cumulative price increases began to have a significant positive impact on sales and gross profit during the remainder of fiscal 2023 and the first nine months of fiscal 2024[100]. - Parts sales increased by $1.3 million, or 5.5%, primarily due to price increases driven by inflationary pressures[114]. - Parts sales increased by $4.7 million, or 6.4%, primarily due to price increases driven by inflationary pressures[128]. Backlog and Orders - Blue Bird's backlog remained strong at approximately 4,600 units as of September 30, 2023, and increased to 5,200 units by June 29, 2024, despite selling over 8,500 units during fiscal 2023[87]. - New bus orders remained robust due to pent-up demand from the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing supply chain challenges, contributing to a strong backlog[87]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash provided by operating activities totaled $55.8 million for the nine months ended June 29, 2024, a decrease of $28.4 million from $84.1 million during the same period in 2023[160]. - Free Cash Flow for the nine months ended June 29, 2024 was $45.6 million, which is $32.1 million lower than the $77.7 million reported for the nine months ended July 1, 2023[167]. - The company had $88.4 million of available cash and $143.3 million of additional borrowings available under its revolving credit facility as of June 29, 2024[142]. - The company executed a $250.0 million five-year credit agreement, which includes a term loan facility of $100.0 million and a revolving credit facility of $150.0 million[144]. - The company borrowed $100.0 million from the Term Loan Facility and $36.2 million from the Revolving Credit Facility to pay off $131.8 million of term loan indebtedness and associated costs[147]. Segment Performance - The company operates in two segments: the Bus segment, which includes the design and sales of school buses, and the Parts segment, which involves the sale of replacement bus parts[109]. - The company evaluates segment performance based on revenues and gross profit, with the Chief Executive Officer identified as the chief operating decision maker[109]. Tax and Interest Expenses - Interest expense decreased by $2.4 million, or 53.3%, to $2.1 million due to a lower interest rate and reduced borrowings[117]. - Income tax expense for the third quarter was $9.9 million, compared to $1.9 million for the same period in fiscal 2023[120]. - The effective tax rate for the third quarter was 27.7%, influenced by state taxes and certain permanent items[121]. - The effective tax rate for the nine months ended June 29, 2024, was 26.4%, compared to 22.2% for the same period in 2023[140].

Highlights BLUE BIRD REPORTS FISCAL 2024 THIRD QUARTER RECORD RESULTS; RAISES 2024 GUIDANCE AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOK Net Sales of $333M, up 13% and GAAP Net Income of $29M, up $19M Record Quarterly Adj. EBITDA of $48M, up $19M with 2,151 Buses Sold FY2024 Adj. EBITDA Guidance Raised to $175M or 13% of Revenue Long-Term Adj. EBITDA Margin Outlook Raised to 15% MACON, Ga. (August 7, 2024) – Blue Bird Corporation ("Blue Bird") (Nasdaq: BLBD), the leader in electric and low-emission school buses, announced today i ...

Industrial stocks are vital to daily operations. Many investors are drawn to these companies due to their inherent need, whether it's a period of strong economic growth or an overall downturn. The need for industrials never changes on a macro scale. Investors typically feel safe investing in industrials regardless of the overall economic background. During times of economic recovery, industrials may thrive due to their increased capacity to focus on producing new products, expanding their workforce, and bui ...

Blue Bird (BLBD) ended the recent trading session at $52.12, demonstrating a +1.46% swing from the preceding day's closing price. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.08%. At the same time, the Dow added 0.75%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 2.64%. Shares of the school bus maker have appreciated by 8.28% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 3.09% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.44%. The upcoming earnings release of Blue Bird will be ...

Blue Bird currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.14, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by seven brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.14 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy. While the ABR calls for buying Blue Bird, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to p ...

Blue Bird (BLBD) closed the latest trading day at $49.79, indicating a +0.4% change from the previous session's end. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.51%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.2%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.93%. Prior to today's trading, shares of the school bus maker had lost 7.77% over the past month. This has lagged the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's gain of 7.26% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.26% in that time. Regarding the entir ...

Technical Analysis - The stock of Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) has reached a significant support level, breaking through its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a potential short-term bullish trend [1][7] - The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for identifying support and resistance levels, and Blue Bird's movement above this mark suggests a positive shift [7][8] Expansion & Safety Initiatives - The company plans to double capital expenditure to expand manufacturing capacity, aiming to produce 50 new buses per day to meet rising demand [4] - Blue Bird is prioritizing enhancements in bus safety features, investing in supply chain capabilities, and modernizing production facilities [4] Financial Performance & Guidance - Blue Bird raised its FY24 revenue guidance to $1.27-$1.32 billion, up from the previous range of $1.15-$1.25 billion, and expects adjusted EBITDA between $145 million and $165 million, higher than the prior projection of $120-$140 million [5] - The company reported a profit of $26 million in the last quarter, a significant improvement from a loss of $11 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023 [13] Market Opportunity & Competitive Advantage - Blue Bird has a massive market opportunity with over 90% of U.S. school buses still diesel-powered, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for electric school buses [9] - The company has an exclusive partnership with Ford and Roush CleanTech, deploying over 30,000 propane and gasoline systems, reinforcing its dominant position in the alternative fuel market [10] Government & Regulatory Support - Favorable government policies, such as the EPA's Clean School Bus Program and state-level incentives, are accelerating the adoption of electric buses and supporting Blue Bird's market expansion [11] Turnaround & Growth Strategy - Blue Bird's turnaround strategy, implemented in late 2021, has proven effective, leading to expanded profit margins and leveraging the growing demand for EV buses [12][13] - The company has an order backlog of approximately 5,900 units valued at around $850 million, with nearly 500 electric orders in its backlog as of the second quarter of fiscal 2024 [22] Stock Performance & Valuation - Year-to-date, shares of Blue Bird have rallied roughly 94%, outperforming the industry, sector, and S&P 500 [14] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 1.15, higher than its 5-year median but lower than the industry's 1.53, with a Value Score of B [21] Earnings Growth & Revision Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 EPS implies a year-over-year uptick of 155%, with a bullish estimate revision trend for the current fiscal year, up 90.9% to $2.73 per share over the last year [17] Investor Considerations - Existing shareholders are advised to hold onto the stock, while new investors may consider adding BLBD to their watchlist and initiating positions during market dips [19] - Despite reliance on subsidies and grants, the company's improved financial performance, manageable debt, and strategic alignment with market demands suggest a positive outlook [24]