Core Points - Burford Capital Limited announced an interim dividend of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share for the year ending December 31, 2025, to be paid on December 4, 2025 [1] - For shareholders opting for pound sterling, the interim dividend is set at 4.785971 pence per ordinary share, based on an exchange rate of £1 = US$1.3059 as of November 5, 2025 [2] Company Overview - Burford Capital is a leading global finance and asset management firm focused on law, involved in litigation finance, risk management, asset recovery, and various legal finance and advisory activities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Burford Capital Limited reported a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, significantly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30, and down from earnings of $0.61 per share a year ago, indicating a substantial earnings surprise of -130.00% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $69.8 million for the quarter ended September 2025, which was 45.95% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a decrease from $249.11 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Burford Capital has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Burford Capital shares have declined approximately 25.7% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 15.1% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Burford Capital is 3 (Hold), suggesting that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.34 on revenues of $129.59 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.18 on revenues of $568.89 million [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Burford Capital was mixed ahead of the earnings release, which may change following the recent report [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Burford Capital belongs, is currently ranked in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Definitive commitments increased by over 50% year-to-date, with the overall portfolio up 15% year-to-date, translating to a 20% annualized growth rate [11] - Deployments rose by 61% in the third quarter compared to the previous year [12] - Internal rates of return (IRRs) remained steady at 26% on $3.6 billion of realizations, with loss rates stable [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capital provision income revenue decreased year-to-date, primarily due to extensions in fair model durations [27] - The total fair value increased from $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion, driven by deployments and realizations [28] - Realizations for the year reached $310 million, with a focus on multi-period performance rather than quarterly fluctuations [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a diversified portfolio across various geographies and case types, including arbitration, antitrust, contract cases, and patents [27] - The market reaction to the YPF case has been noted as an overreaction, with management remaining bullish on the case's potential outcomes [10][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its business by 2030, with ongoing organic and inorganic growth strategies [11][22] - Management is focused on maintaining a strong alignment of interests as large shareholders and committed executives [19] - The company is cautious about share buybacks, preferring to invest in business growth rather than diverting cash for stock repurchases [21][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio's performance despite litigation delays and uncertainties [15][20] - The company anticipates continued momentum in realizations, with more trials and hearings scheduled compared to the previous year [46] - The impact of the U.S. government shutdown on litigation operations has been negligible [55] Other Important Information - The appointment of Bank of America as corporate broker signifies a step forward in market leadership [25] - The company maintains a strong cash position of $740 million, partly due to the recent issuance of $500 million notes [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of the appeal regarding YPF shares - The appeal is expected to be fully briefed by December, with no fixed argument date yet scheduled, likely extending into 2026 [44] Question: Trajectory of realizations in the coming years - There is a continuing velocity in the portfolio, with more scheduled events than the previous year, indicating elevated realizations as courts catch up [46][48] Question: Details on the change of expected timing for case durations - The impact of duration changes is estimated to be around $40 million-$50 million compared to the overall deployed cost fair value [50] Question: Thoughts on share buybacks and capital utilization - Management is focused on prudent management of the business, weighing the risks of leveraging against the unpredictability of cash flows from realizations [51][53] Question: Impact of the U.S. government shutdown - The shutdown has not affected the litigation portfolio, with courts continuing to operate normally [55] Question: Opportunities for growth through acquisitions - The competitive landscape is evolving, with potential opportunities for growth through acquisitions, though the outcome remains uncertain [57]

Financial Performance - GAAP consolidated net income/(loss) was $(20) million in 3Q25 and $122 million in YTD25[17] - Net income attributable to Burford Capital Limited shareholders was $(19) million in 3Q25 and $100 million in YTD25[17] - New definitive commitments of $637 million in YTD25, up 52% compared to YTD24[24] - Deployments of $329 million in YTD25, up 20% compared to YTD24[24] - Realizations of $310 million in YTD25, were down from $388 million in YTD24[24] - Cash and marketable securities were $740 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $521 million as of December 31, 2024[102] Portfolio and YPF Cases - Group-wide portfolio fair value and undrawn commitments totaled $7.5 billion as of September 30, 2025[20, 22] - Fair value of YPF-related assets was $1.7 billion as of September 30, 2025[27] - The company believes YPF-related assets will ultimately deliver a ten-figure recovery for Burford[27] London Listing - NYSE share registration increased from 40% in June 2023 to 70% in September 2025, while LSE share registration decreased from 60% to 30%[45]

Company Overview - The company is the world's largest dedicated provider of capital for litigation and legal assets, focusing on large, complex disputes [240]. - The company maintains access to corporate debt capital markets, supported by credit rating upgrades from Moody's and S&P, and successfully completed a debt offering in July 2025 [241]. Financial Performance - Total revenues decreased by 72% to $69.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $249.1 million in the same period of 2024 [274]. - Operating income fell by 88% to $24.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down from $202.2 million in 2024 [274]. - Net loss attributable to Burford Capital Limited shareholders was $19.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to net income of $135.6 million in 2024 [275]. - Total revenues decreased by 16% to $379.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $453.1 million in 2024 [276]. - Net income attributable to Burford Capital Limited shareholders was $100.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, down from $159.5 million in 2024 [276]. - Total revenues decreased by 33% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to lower asset management income, reflecting a decrease in capital provision income earned by BOF-C [413]. Capital Provision and Asset Management - Capital provision income decreased by 70% to $80.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $271.0 million in 2024 [279]. - The company reported a higher incidence of pre-adjudication settlements since June 2021 compared to earlier periods, though the long-term trend remains uncertain [246]. - The company’s asset management business reports assets under management (AUM) based on the fair value of capital invested in private funds and vehicles [258]. - The total AUM was $3.2 billion as of September 30, 2025, down from $3.5 billion as of December 31, 2024 [429]. Cash Flow and Receivables - Cash receipts are considered an important measure of operating performance, reflecting cash generated from capital provision and other assets [268]. - Cash and cash equivalents increased by 44% to $677.7 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $469.9 million as of December 31, 2024 [314]. - Due from settlement of capital provision assets decreased by 47% to $96.8 million as of September 30, 2025, primarily due to cash received from realizations [318]. - Cash received from realizations during 2025 accounted for 68% of the $183.9 million due from settlement receivables collected [318]. Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses increased by 17% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reaching $135.2 million, compared to $115.2 million in 2024 [297]. - Total operating expenses increased by 24% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to an increase in compensation and benefits costs [414]. - The increase in operating expenses was primarily due to higher share-based and deferred compensation costs, which were partially offset by lower fair value driven compensation-related accruals [345]. Market Conditions and Economic Impact - Court systems have returned to functionality post-Covid-19, but some backlogs remain, affecting cash realizations [245]. - Inflation impacts revenues positively by increasing legal case fees and expenses, which can lead to higher returns on successful cases [248]. - The company has not seen any discontinuance of matters despite ongoing court backlogs and economic uncertainties [245]. Asset Valuation and Performance Metrics - The internal rate of return (IRR) is calculated on concluded legal finance assets, excluding unrealized gains or losses [262]. - Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures the absolute realizations from concluded assets in excess of financing expenditure, expressed as a percentage [263]. - The weighted average life (WAL) of legal finance assets indicates the average time until cash realizations are received [264]. - The cumulative realizations increased to $3.6 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $3.3 billion as of December 31, 2024 [396]. Debt and Leverage - The company plans to continue being an opportunistic issuer of debt securities to fund growth or refinance future debt maturities [435]. - The company had five series of debt securities outstanding as of September 30, 2025, with one series listed on the London Stock Exchange [433]. - The leverage ratio requirement mandates that Group Net Debt must be less than 50% of Group Total Assets [436]. - The company is in compliance with all covenants under the trust deeds and indentures as of September 30, 2025 [437].

Growth and Strategy - Burford Capital is experiencing strong growth, aiming to double the size of its platform by 2030, as highlighted during the recent Investor Day[17]. - The portfolio is active, with rolling three-year realizations at their highest level ever, and 61 assets generating proceeds in 2025[17]. - The YPF matter is gaining significant attention, with positive prospects, while the majority of Burford's business is also flourishing and growing[18]. Financial Performance - Consolidated GAAP net income was $(20) million in 3Q25 and $122 million in YTD25, with net income attributable to Burford Capital Limited shareholders at $(19) million in 3Q25 and $100 million in YTD25[20]. - Total revenues for 3Q25 were $69.8 million, a significant decrease from $249.1 million in 3Q24[19]. - Total revenues for YTD25 were $351 million, a decrease from $394 million in YTD24[56]. - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $24.787 million, compared to $202.221 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 87.7%[121]. - Net loss for Q3 2025 was $20.270 million, contrasting with a net income of $157.864 million in Q3 2024[121]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues were $379.948 million, down 16.1% from $453.062 million in the same period of 2024[123]. - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $121.793 million, down 43.6% from $215.638 million in 2024[123]. Commitments and Deployments - New definitive commitments reached $637 million in YTD25, a 52% increase compared to YTD24, while deployments were $329 million, up 20% from YTD24[26]. - Deployments were $329 million in YTD25, reflecting a 20% increase from $274 million in YTD24[76]. - Realizations totaled $310 million in YTD25, down from $388 million in YTD24, with 61 assets contributing to realizations[84]. Asset Management and Income - Total revenues for the Asset Management and Other Services Segment decreased to $21,148 thousand in YTD25 from $31,778 thousand in YTD24[93]. - Asset management income for YTD25 was $21 million, down from $29 million in YTD24, impacted by lower profit sharing income[99]. - Total segments (Burford-only) asset management income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $20,781, compared to $29,270 in 2024, indicating a decline of 29%[130]. Cash Flow and Receipts - Cash receipts amounted to $423 million in YTD25, down from $556 million in YTD24[56]. - Cash receipts for Q3 2025 totaled $117,637, up from $48,135 in Q2 2025, representing a 144% increase[128]. - Total cash receipts for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $423,488, down from $555,548 in the same period of 2024[130]. Debt and Liabilities - The debt payable increased to $2.143 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $1.764 billion at the end of 2024[55]. - Total liabilities as of September 30, 2025, were $3.497 billion, compared to $2.918 billion as of December 31, 2024[125]. - The total principal amount of debt outstanding as of September 30, 2025, was $2,170,064,000, an increase from $1,783,690,000 at the end of 2024[138]. Asset Valuation and Performance Metrics - The fair value of YPF-related assets was $1.7 billion as of September 30, 2025, with expectations of a ten-figure recovery for Burford from these assets[29]. - Unrealized gains in the current portfolio, excluding YPF-related assets, amount to $541 million, representing a 32% return on invested capital (ROIC)[42]. - Total concluded assets from inception through September 30, 2025, amount to $3,623 million, with a cumulative ROIC of 83% and an IRR of 26%[88]. Market and Listing Considerations - Burford is considering options for its LSE listing, including retaining its AIM listing, as liquidity has shifted towards the US market[52]. Unrealized Gains and Losses - Unrealized gains on YPF-related assets increased to $2,354,423 as of September 30, 2025, from $2,118,112 as of December 31, 2024, marking a growth of 11.1%[144]. - 14% of deployments resulted in losses, with a lifetime loss rate of 9.8% on fully and partially concluded assets, recovering 31% of deployed costs when losses occurred[91].

Core Insights - Burford Capital Limited reported strong growth, aiming to double its platform size by 2030, with significant cash realizations and a robust portfolio [2][6] - The company appointed Merrill Lynch International as a joint corporate broker, enhancing its advisory capabilities [2] Financial Performance - Burford's financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, were announced, with a detailed presentation available for investors [1] - The company highlighted that its portfolio is active, with the highest level of rolling three-year realizations and 61 assets generating proceeds in the current year [2] Strategic Developments - The YPF matter is gaining attention, and Burford is optimistic about its prospects, although the majority of its business is thriving independently of this case [2] - A conference call for investors and analysts was scheduled to discuss the financial results, encouraging pre-registration for swift access [3][4]

Core Insights - The financial sector shows potential buying opportunities in oversold stocks, particularly those with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 30, indicating undervaluation [1][2] Company Summaries - **Shift4 Payments Inc (NYSE:FOUR)**: - Analyst Peter Heckmann from DA Davidson maintains a Buy rating but lowers the price target from $124 to $114 - The stock has decreased approximately 14% in the last five days, reaching a 52-week low of $66.11 - Current RSI value is 27.1, with shares closing at $66.31 after a 5.3% drop [3][8] - **Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR)**: - Scheduled to release financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, on November 5 - The stock has fallen around 21% over the past month, with a 52-week low of $9.38 - Current RSI value is 24.8, with shares closing at $9.44 after a 6.2% decline [4][8] - **Fiserv Inc (NYSE:FI)**: - Reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter results and reduced FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance - The stock has plummeted approximately 48% in the last five days, reaching a 52-week low of $64.52 - Current RSI value is 12.5, with shares closing at $65.19 after a 7.7% drop [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - Burford Capital Limited (BUR) shares experienced a 5.6% increase, closing at $11.29, following a notable trading volume, contrasting with an 11.4% loss over the past four weeks [1] Group 1: Company Strengths - Burford is the world's largest dedicated legal finance provider, showcasing unmatched financial capabilities and global reach, with a focus on large-scale litigation finance [2] - The company has a proprietary data and technological advantage, utilizing in-house probabilistic modeling and decision science tools, refined through financing over $11.2 billion in legal assets [3] Group 2: Financial Expectations - Burford is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 50.8%, with revenues expected at $129.15 million, down 48.2% from the previous year [4] - The consensus EPS estimate for Burford has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [5] Group 3: Industry Context - Burford Capital holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) within the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, alongside TON Strategy Company, which also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 [6]

Group 1: Alphyn Capital Management Overview - Alphyn Capital Management's Master Account returned 3.0% net in Q3 2025, compared to 8.1% for the S&P 500 Index [1] - As of Q3 2025, the top ten holdings accounted for approximately 68% of the portfolio, with around 17% held in cash [1] - The market narrative in the quarter was influenced by AI advancements, credit cycles, and geopolitical uncertainty [1] Group 2: Burford Capital Limited Analysis - Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) experienced a one-month return of -6.77% and a 52-week loss of 17.23%, closing at $11.29 per share with a market capitalization of $2.47 billion on October 27, 2025 [2] - The share price performance of Burford Capital is significantly affected by the $16 billion YPF judgment against Argentina, with a turnover order issued by US District Judge Preska [3] - The US Department of Justice filed an amicus curiae brief arguing that seizing a sovereign nation's controlling stake would violate principles of sovereign immunity, leading to a stay of Judge Preska's order by the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals [3]