Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) is one of the stocks that will double in 2026. Earlier on November 11, B. Riley analyst Timothy D’Agostino lowered the firm’s price target on Burford Capital to $18 from $20 with a Buy rating on the shares. This sentiment followed the company’s Q3 2025 earnings report. D’Agostino believes that the recent decline in the stock price offers an attractive entry point for investors. In its Q3 report, Burford Capital announced achieving a significant increase in definitive co ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited on TripleS Special Situations’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BUR. Burford Capital Limited's share was trading at $9.32 as of December 2nd. BUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.93 and 9.68 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Investments, Finance Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide and operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Se ...

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Core Insights - The fund experienced a return of approximately -9% during Q3, leading to a year-to-date return of approximately -9% [2] - The portfolio lacks direct exposure to AI, focusing instead on companies that are integrating AI into their operations, which has affected short-term performance [3][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term growth potential and durable competitive advantages rather than short-term market trends [5][8] Portfolio Analysis - The top five holdings include PAR Technologies, Cellebrite, KKR, LifeCore, and Burford, all of which have faced declines in share price year-to-date [7][32] - LifeCore's share price dropped over 10% following a shelf offering announcement, despite positive business developments [12][15] - Cellebrite's valuation has been impacted by a general decline in software multiples, with a 26% drop in Enterprise Value to Next 12 Months Revenue for medium growth companies [17][18] Company-Specific Developments - LifeCore is expected to ramp up revenues significantly by 2026, driven by new customer wins and favorable regulatory changes [13][15] - Cellebrite is positioned to benefit from AI advancements, with plans to release investigative AI tools in January 2026 [20][22] - KKR's diversified asset management approach remains robust, with significant growth in Fee Related Earnings and a focus on expanding its investor base [25][31] Market Trends and Challenges - The current market environment has led to a compression of software multiples, affecting companies like Cellebrite and PAR Technologies [18][46] - Concerns regarding traditional private equity and private credit have emerged, but KKR's diversified model mitigates some of these risks [24][30] - The investment landscape is characterized by volatility, with a disconnect between share prices and underlying business progress [10][42] Future Outlook - The fund's strategy focuses on long-term value realization, with expectations that current market conditions will eventually improve for the companies held [9][43] - There is potential for significant growth in companies like Hagerty and Kingsway, driven by strategic partnerships and management quality [33][35] - The outlook for PAR Technologies hinges on winning key contracts, which could substantially increase recurring revenue and growth rates [51][60]

Core Insights - The article discusses the top 9 undervalued asset management stocks to buy, highlighting the resilience of wealth management and brokerage stocks amid economic uncertainties [1] - The asset management sector has seen a rebound, with global assets under management reaching a record high of $147 trillion by the end of June [2] - Private credit is emerging as a significant trend in asset management, with non-bank institutions reshaping capital investment [3][4] Industry Overview - The asset management sector is characterized by a robust US economy and accommodative monetary policies, which have supported its resilience despite uncertainties [1] - Global private credit markets are projected to grow rapidly, potentially reaching $3 trillion by 2028, driven by lower interest rates and economic strength in the US and Europe [4] Investment Opportunities - Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggest that the current challenges faced by alternative asset manager stocks present opportunities for investment in undervalued names [5] - A methodology was employed to identify undervalued asset management stocks, focusing on companies with a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 20 and an upside potential of over 20% [7] Company Highlights - HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (NYSE:HASI) shows a stock upside potential of 42.42% with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.74, supported by strong third-quarter results and a significant investment pipeline [9][10][12] - Burford Capital (NYSE:BUR) has a stock upside potential of 121.94% despite disappointing third-quarter results, with a focus on growing its platform and securing new firm commitments [13][14][15][17]

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Core Points - Burford Capital Limited announced an interim dividend of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share for the year ending December 31, 2025, to be paid on December 4, 2025 [1] - For shareholders opting for pound sterling, the interim dividend is set at 4.785971 pence per ordinary share, based on an exchange rate of £1 = US$1.3059 as of November 5, 2025 [2] Company Overview - Burford Capital is a leading global finance and asset management firm focused on law, involved in litigation finance, risk management, asset recovery, and various legal finance and advisory activities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Burford Capital Limited reported a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, significantly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30, and down from earnings of $0.61 per share a year ago, indicating a substantial earnings surprise of -130.00% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $69.8 million for the quarter ended September 2025, which was 45.95% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a decrease from $249.11 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Burford Capital has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Burford Capital shares have declined approximately 25.7% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 15.1% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Burford Capital is 3 (Hold), suggesting that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.34 on revenues of $129.59 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.18 on revenues of $568.89 million [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Burford Capital was mixed ahead of the earnings release, which may change following the recent report [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Burford Capital belongs, is currently ranked in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Definitive commitments increased by over 50% year-to-date, with the overall portfolio up 15% year-to-date, translating to a 20% annualized growth rate [11] - Deployments rose by 61% in the third quarter compared to the previous year [12] - Internal rates of return (IRRs) remained steady at 26% on $3.6 billion of realizations, with loss rates stable [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capital provision income revenue decreased year-to-date, primarily due to extensions in fair model durations [27] - The total fair value increased from $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion, driven by deployments and realizations [28] - Realizations for the year reached $310 million, with a focus on multi-period performance rather than quarterly fluctuations [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a diversified portfolio across various geographies and case types, including arbitration, antitrust, contract cases, and patents [27] - The market reaction to the YPF case has been noted as an overreaction, with management remaining bullish on the case's potential outcomes [10][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to double its business by 2030, with ongoing organic and inorganic growth strategies [11][22] - Management is focused on maintaining a strong alignment of interests as large shareholders and committed executives [19] - The company is cautious about share buybacks, preferring to invest in business growth rather than diverting cash for stock repurchases [21][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio's performance despite litigation delays and uncertainties [15][20] - The company anticipates continued momentum in realizations, with more trials and hearings scheduled compared to the previous year [46] - The impact of the U.S. government shutdown on litigation operations has been negligible [55] Other Important Information - The appointment of Bank of America as corporate broker signifies a step forward in market leadership [25] - The company maintains a strong cash position of $740 million, partly due to the recent issuance of $500 million notes [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of the appeal regarding YPF shares - The appeal is expected to be fully briefed by December, with no fixed argument date yet scheduled, likely extending into 2026 [44] Question: Trajectory of realizations in the coming years - There is a continuing velocity in the portfolio, with more scheduled events than the previous year, indicating elevated realizations as courts catch up [46][48] Question: Details on the change of expected timing for case durations - The impact of duration changes is estimated to be around $40 million-$50 million compared to the overall deployed cost fair value [50] Question: Thoughts on share buybacks and capital utilization - Management is focused on prudent management of the business, weighing the risks of leveraging against the unpredictability of cash flows from realizations [51][53] Question: Impact of the U.S. government shutdown - The shutdown has not affected the litigation portfolio, with courts continuing to operate normally [55] Question: Opportunities for growth through acquisitions - The competitive landscape is evolving, with potential opportunities for growth through acquisitions, though the outcome remains uncertain [57]

Financial Performance - GAAP consolidated net income/(loss) was $(20) million in 3Q25 and $122 million in YTD25[17] - Net income attributable to Burford Capital Limited shareholders was $(19) million in 3Q25 and $100 million in YTD25[17] - New definitive commitments of $637 million in YTD25, up 52% compared to YTD24[24] - Deployments of $329 million in YTD25, up 20% compared to YTD24[24] - Realizations of $310 million in YTD25, were down from $388 million in YTD24[24] - Cash and marketable securities were $740 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $521 million as of December 31, 2024[102] Portfolio and YPF Cases - Group-wide portfolio fair value and undrawn commitments totaled $7.5 billion as of September 30, 2025[20, 22] - Fair value of YPF-related assets was $1.7 billion as of September 30, 2025[27] - The company believes YPF-related assets will ultimately deliver a ten-figure recovery for Burford[27] London Listing - NYSE share registration increased from 40% in June 2023 to 70% in September 2025, while LSE share registration decreased from 60% to 30%[45]