Jessica Zheng En Chew Investment summary My recommendation for Carlsberg (CABGY) is a buy rating. There is a strong growth outlook in the key regions for CABGY, especially in China and India, that should continue to drive organic growth. There are also visible catalysts in Europe that should drive volume recovery—specifically, warmer weather and an upcoming sports event. As earnings grow, I expect CABGY to trade back to its historical average forward PE multiple of 19x. Business Overview CABGY produces, mar ...

THORKILD AMDI/AFP via Getty Images Overview My recommendation for Carlsberg (OTCPK:CABGY) is a buy rating as I believe growth can revert back to mid-single-digit as guided, with margin expanding as gross margin improves to pre-covid levels on the back of the premiumization trend and operational leverage. Valuation should also rerate back to CABGY average trading levels as the market becomes convinced that CABGY mid-single-digit growth is achievable and sustainable. Business Carlsberg is a well-known brand a ...

Investors looking for stocks in the Beverages - Alcohol sector might want to consider either Carlsberg AS (CABGY) or Diageo (DEO) . But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look.Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities, but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank. The proven Zacks Rank puts an emphasis on earnings estimat ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a slight decline in volumes for the year, as growth in Asia was not sufficient to offset declines in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe [26] - Organic revenue grew by 9.2%, driven by a 10% increase in revenue per hectoliter [26][55] - Free operating cash flow decreased to DKK 7.5 billion, down DKK 2 billion year-on-year, impacted by currency fluctuations and higher CapEx [27][65] - The total cash returns to shareholders amounted to DKK 6.9 billion, with dividends of DKK 3.7 billion and share buybacks of DKK 3.2 billion [28][68] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The premium brand portfolio outperformed the core beer portfolio, growing by 1% and gaining market share in most markets [29] - Alcohol-free category volumes increased by 3%, with strong growth in markets like Ukraine, Greece, and Denmark [30] - Carlsberg's total premium volume increased by 12%, driven by markets such as China, India, and Vietnam [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Western Europe, volumes declined by 2.3%, with a 0.7% growth in non-beer volumes due to soft drinks [38] - Asia saw a beer volume growth of 5.1%, particularly in China, India, and Vietnam, while non-beer volumes declined by 5.8% [44] - Central and Eastern Europe experienced a 4% decline in volumes, but organic revenue grew by 11.9% due to a significant increase in revenue per hectoliter [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is launching a new share buyback program of DKK 1 billion and a refreshed strategy called "Accelerate SAIL" aimed at higher long-term growth [3][76] - The new long-term ambition for organic growth is set at 4% to 6% CAGR, up from the previous 3% to 5% [7] - The strategy emphasizes increased investments in brands, markets, capabilities, and people to capture growth opportunities [6][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the Chinese market, noting a stable consumer environment without significant deterioration [93] - The company anticipates inflation in the total cost base for 2024, necessitating price increases across most markets [70] - Risks identified for 2024 include consumer sentiment in China, macroeconomic conditions in Southeast Asia, and the ongoing war in Ukraine [73] Other Important Information - The company aims to maintain SG&A to revenue flat while increasing absolute sales and marketing investments by more than 10% in 2024 [71] - The return on invested capital was reported at 14.5%, with a decline attributed to negative currency impacts [67] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in upgrading medium-term top line growth ambition - Management highlighted thorough analysis and data-driven insights from recent months, identifying clear opportunities for growth in premium segments and Asian markets [81][84] Question: Changes in incentive structures for Accelerate SAIL strategy - Management confirmed that while earnings and cash flow remain important, there will be an increased emphasis on growth within incentive structures to drive both top-line and bottom-line performance [87][88] Question: Insights on the Chinese market trends - Management noted no significant changes in consumer sentiment in China, with expectations for stabilization rather than a significant upturn [92][93] Question: Focus on local power brands in China - Management acknowledged a shift towards deeper engagement in existing cities while continuing to invest in commercial strategies to solidify market share [100][102]

Beer sales of Carlsberg brands were forced to rely on price hikes during 2023 and may continue with this strategy in the new financial year, the Danish brewer revealed on Wednesday. Revenues 4.7% to reach more than DKK 73.5 billion (£1 = DKK 8.75) despite organic volumes falling by 0.5% across all operations. Volumes in Central and Eastern Europe dropped by 4%, while Western Europe experienced a 2.3% drop. Brooklyn Brewery was one of Carlberg’s standout brands, seeing a 34% jump in organic volumes, while al ...

The Consumer Staples group has plenty of great stocks, but investors should always be looking for companies that are outperforming their peers. Has Carlsberg AS (CABGY) been one of those stocks this year? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Consumer Staples sector should help us answer this question.Carlsberg AS is one of 193 companies in the Consumer Staples group. The Consumer Staples group currently sits at #13 within the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks ...

Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE), the spirits company, has been downgraded from a ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ by analysts at the Bank of America. The US bank expects the beverage sector to face a tough 2024 due to suppressed consumer spend on both sides of the Atlantic, foreign exchange headwinds and the risk of tariffs on Cognac in China. “We downgrade to Neutral because we expect the US, which is key to sentiment and to valuation, to remain lackluster and disappoint, holding back rerating,” the bank explained. Industry growth ...

Carlsberg A/S (OTCPK:CABGY) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call October 31, 2023 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Jacob Aarup-Andersen - Chief Executive Officer Ulrica Fearn - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Andrea Pistacchi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Simon Hales - Citigroup Inc. Edward Mundy - Jefferies Trevor Stirling - Bernstein Søren Samsøe - SEB Olivier Nicolai - Goldman Sachs Mitch Collett - Deutsche Bank Laurence Whyatt - Barclays Chris Pitcher - Redburn Atlantic André Thormann ...

artshera 1 Q3 2023 TRADING STATEMENT p 7 p by Disclaimer FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about the Group's sales, revenues, earnings, spending, margins, cash flow, inventory, products, actions, plans, strategies, objectives and guidance with respect to the Group's future operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or ach ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth was strong at 11%, driven by a 10% improvement in revenue per hectoliter, attributed to premium brand growth and price increases across all markets [4][26] - Organic operating profit growth was 5%, with adjusted earnings per share for the continuing business increasing by 0.2% despite adverse foreign exchange movements [4][26] - Free operating cash flow was DKK 4.3 billion, down from DKK 7 billion in 2022, primarily due to adverse foreign exchange movements [31][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium portfolio grew by 3%, with a 5% increase in both Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, while Western Europe saw a 2% decline due to down-trading [7][11] - Non-beer volumes grew by 2%, driven by strong performance in soft drinks, with revenue per hectoliter increasing by 12% [13] - Operating profit in Central and Eastern Europe grew organically by 8%, supported by strong revenue per hectoliter growth of 19% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Asia, volumes grew by 4.8%, with organic revenue growth of 12% and operating profit increasing organically by 8% [19] - Western Europe faced challenges with low single-digit volume growth, impacted by high inflation and bad weather [14][18] - The Polish beer market declined by 7%, with consumers affected by lower disposable income, leading to significant down-trading [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its SAIL'27 strategy, focusing on premium brand growth and long-term value creation [6][47] - Investments are being made in key brands and capabilities to drive sustainable growth, despite short-term challenges [38][39] - The company aims to increase its market share in China from 8% to 10% over the next few years, supported by a balanced portfolio [54][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management upgraded the earnings outlook for organic operating profit growth for the year to 4% to 7%, citing better-than-expected performance [37][70] - High inflation in Europe and the ongoing war in Ukraine remain uncertainties that could impact consumer sentiment and volumes [39][70] - The company is optimistic about growth in China, despite macroeconomic challenges, and expects to continue premiumizing its portfolio [54][56] Other Important Information - The company signed a sales agreement for its Russian business, but a presidential decree has temporarily placed it under state management [5][41] - The fair value of net assets in Russia was DKK 5.7 billion as of June 30, with a write-down of DKK 1.2 billion due to reassessment [41][44] - The company has initiated a second quarterly share buyback program of DKK 1 billion due to solid performance and a healthy balance sheet [3][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for China and consumer weakness - Management expressed optimism for China, noting a growing market share and strong performance in premium segments despite macroeconomic changes [53][54] - In Europe, while there are signs of consumer pressure, the company is outperforming in premium segments and gaining market share [57][58] Question: Input costs outlook for 2024 and cash flow - Input costs for 2024 remain uncertain, with 50% of commodities not yet hedged, but some costs like aluminum and barley are showing signs of decline [62][65] - 2022's cash flow was likely boosted by one-offs, suggesting that 2023 represents a more normalized cash flow environment [65] Question: Guidance for the second half and WuSu brand performance - Management reiterated guidance for mid- to high single-digit organic sales growth in China, with expectations for WuSu brand growth in the second half [79][75] Question: Premiumization in Europe - The company remains committed to premiumization strategies in Europe, despite challenges in specific markets like Poland due to high inflation [86]