证券代码：601898 证券简称：中煤能源 公告编号：2024-044 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 指标项目 | 单位 | 2024 | 年 | 2023 | 年 | 变化比率（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 月份 | 累计 | 11 月份 | 累计 | 11 月份 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭业务 | | | | | | | | | （一）商品煤产量 | 万吨 | 1,206 | 12,571 | 1,115 | 12,341 | 8.2 | 1.9 | | （二）商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 2,580 | 25,641 | 2,316 | 26,149 | 11.4 | -1.9 | | 其中：自产商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,231 | 12,446 | 1,085 | 12,225 | 13.5 | 1.8 | | 二、煤化工业务 | | | | | | | | | （一）聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with a current price of 12.91 CNY [5][10][123]. Core Views - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector with abundant resources and a low valuation. The company has a total reserve of 26.65 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 13.87 billion tons, ranking third and first among listed companies, respectively [1][3]. - The company's revenue is primarily derived from coal, accounting for 84% of total revenue in 2023, with stable profitability supported by a high proportion of long-term contracts [2][3][8]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with prices supported above 800 CNY per ton due to various factors [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Coal Energy is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a 57.41% stake held by China Coal Group as of Q3 2024 [1]. - The company focuses on coal production, coal chemical, mining equipment, and financial services, with respective revenue contributions of 84%, 11%, 6%, and 1% in 2023 [1][60]. Long-term Contracts and Price Stability - The company signs long-term contracts for at least 80% of its own resource volume, achieving a fulfillment rate of over 90% [2]. - The impact of spot prices on long-term contract prices is limited, with a 100 CNY decrease in spot prices resulting in only a 5-14 CNY decrease in contract prices [2][75]. Profitability and Dividends - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 30% from 2019 to 2023, with expectations for an increase in 2024 due to a special dividend plan [2][65]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 186.8 billion, 195.4 billion, and 204.9 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 1.41, 1.47, and 1.55 CNY [3][113]. Market Outlook - The coal supply is expected to remain tight, with new capacity additions slowing down due to past industry losses and regulatory pressures [80][83]. - The demand for coal is projected to peak in 2028, with a plateau period expected until 2037, indicating stable future demand for the company’s products [83][86]. Valuation - The current P/E ratio for the company is 9, which is lower than the average of comparable companies, indicating a potential undervaluation [3][116]. - The absolute valuation suggests a target price range of 15.42 to 23.98 CNY per share based on DDM valuation methods [120][123].

Summary of Conference Call on Zhongmei Energy Company Overview - The conference call was focused on Zhongmei Energy, a company in the coal industry, discussing its performance and future strategies for 2025 [1] Key Points Production and Sales - As of October 2023, Zhongmei Energy's coal production reached 113 million tons, with a target of 129 million tons for the full year of 2024 [2] - The company anticipates achieving or potentially exceeding its production goals in the last two months of the year [2] Market Conditions - The coal market is currently experiencing a downward trend, contrary to expectations for a peak season [2][3] - Factors contributing to this trend include a mismatch in supply and demand, with prices showing a slight decrease from 699 to 696 [3] Price Forecast - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak due to ongoing supply obligations and slow inventory depletion by customers [4] - The company predicts that coal prices may decline further in 2025, influenced by a stable supply and weak demand [12][13] Cost Management - Zhongmei Energy has maintained strict cost control, resulting in stable and relatively low costs over the past few years [5][14] - The company does not foresee significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter, maintaining a cautious outlook on costs [5] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment has been profitable, contributing positively to the company's overall performance [6] - Future projects in this segment are deemed essential for the company's integrated development strategy [6] Project Updates - Key projects include the Yulin Phase II and a 100,000-ton liquid sunlight project, with expected completion dates around 2026 [8][9] - The company is actively managing project timelines, with some delays due to safety regulations and technical challenges [8] Dividend Policy - Zhongmei Energy aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 30%, with projections suggesting it could reach 38% for 2024 [10] Market Strategy - The company is adjusting its sales strategy to align with market conditions, including a focus on long-term contracts and adapting to policy changes [15][26] - The management emphasizes the importance of energy security and the role of coal enterprises in ensuring supply stability [15] Regulatory Environment - Recent market management policies are seen as beneficial, providing clearer guidelines for corporate governance and market operations [25][26] - The company is committed to enhancing its market management practices in response to new regulations [27] Industry Challenges - Concerns about resource depletion in regions like Shanxi, which has historically been a major coal-producing area, were raised [23][24] - The company acknowledges the need for ongoing compliance with safety regulations, which are expected to remain stringent [23] Additional Insights - The management is open to potential asset injections from the group but currently has no specific plans [18] - The company is exploring ways to enhance shareholder returns through increased dividends and improved market strategies [26] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding Zhongmei Energy's operations, market conditions, and strategic outlook for the coming years.

Summary of China Coal Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy - **Industry**: Coal and Chemical Products Key Points Production and Sales Data - In the first ten months, China Coal Energy's coal production reached 114 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons year-on-year, primarily due to increased output from the Dahai Ze coal mine [3] - Coal sales totaled 231 million tons, a decrease of 7.72 million tons year-on-year, mainly due to reduced buyout trade coal; however, self-produced coal sales increased by 750,000 tons [3] - Polyolefin production was 1.268 million tons, up 29,000 tons year-on-year, with sales of 1.265 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons [3] - Urea production was 1.501 million tons, down 213,000 tons year-on-year, with sales of 1.583 million tons, a decrease of 277,000 tons, mainly due to maintenance [3] - Methanol production was 1.387 million tons, down 230,000 tons year-on-year, with sales of 1.358 million tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons, also due to scheduled maintenance [3] - The company achieved a coal mining equipment output value of 8.6 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan year-on-year [3] Market Conditions - In October, the thermal coal market was relatively stable, with port prices slightly declining; November is expected to see prices fluctuate between 840-880 yuan/ton [2][4] - The urea market declined in October, but is expected to improve in November with prices projected between 1,650-1,850 yuan/ton; the average price for large particle urea in the first ten months was approximately 2,100 yuan/ton, down 13% from last year's average [2][5] - The polyolefin market showed an upward trend in October, with November expected to stabilize; polyethylene prices are projected between 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton, and propylene prices between 7,400-7,600 yuan/ton [2][5] - The methanol market was weak in October but is expected to strengthen in November, with prices in the northwest region projected between 18,000-20,000 yuan/ton [2][5] Financial Management - The company's H-share price-to-book ratio is below one, and there are currently no plans for share buybacks; the company aims to enhance investment value through various means [2][6] - The parent company's debt ratio has decreased, reflecting a commitment to maintaining a healthy financial structure; the company is exploring increasing dividends from profitable subsidiaries to reduce overall debt and improve cash flow [2][7][8] Sales Contracts and Market Dynamics - The proportion of long-term sales contracts for thermal coal remains at 80%, with an execution rate of no less than 90%; there have been no reports of power plants refusing to take delivery of contracted coal [2][9] Future Projects - The "Liquid Sunshine" project has a total investment of over 5 billion yuan, located in the Ordos region, focusing on producing green methanol through hydrogen production and carbon dioxide coupling [2][10] Urea Sales Outlook - Urea sales in October dropped to 73,000 tons, mainly due to state reserve allocations; sales are expected to normalize in November and December, although the impact of state reserve requirements remains uncertain [2][11] Cost Structure - Methanol accounts for approximately 60% of the production cost in the methanol-to-olefins process, subject to fluctuations based on pricing [2][12]

证券代码：601898 证券简称：中煤能源 公告编号：2024-043 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月份主要生产经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 指标项目 | 单位 | 2024 | 年 | 2023 | 年 | 变化比率（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 10 月份 | 累计 | 10 月份 | 累计 | 10 月份 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭业务 | | | | | | | | | （一）商品煤产量 | 万吨 | 1,134 | 11,365 | 1,109 | 11,226 | 2.3 | 1.2 | | （二）商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 2,510 | 23,061 | 2,353 | 23,833 | 6.7 | -3.2 | | 其中：自产商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,177 | 11,215 | 1,173 | 11,140 | 0.3 | 0.7 | | 二、煤化工业务 | ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to a coal mining company within the coal industry. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 1.10, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [1] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 48.26 billion, with a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [2][3] Cost Control - The company has made significant efforts in cost control, achieving a total cost of 28.66 billion, the lowest this year, which is a 2.8% decrease year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates that costs in the fourth quarter will be higher than in the third quarter due to maintenance and safety investments [3][4] - The company aims to keep annual costs around 300 billion, similar to last year [4] Production Capacity and New Projects - The company expects to produce approximately 18 million tons from the Dazhaizi mine this year, an increase of nearly 4 million tons from last year [6][7] - New projects, including the Lithium Coal Mine and the Weizigou Coal Mine, are expected to face delays of 3 to 6 months, with production anticipated to start in the first half of 2026 [7][8] Market Outlook - The coal price is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter, with limited fluctuations observed recently [13][14] - The company predicts that coal prices will remain stable due to balanced supply and demand, despite potential downward pressure from increased renewable energy output [15][23] Dividend and Capital Expenditure - The company has not yet established a formal long-term dividend policy, but there is an expectation of maintaining a stable payout ratio [16][17] - Future capital expenditures are projected to be between 12 billion to 16 billion annually, focusing on coal chemical projects and power generation [20][21] Electric Power Segment - The profitability of the electric power segment varies, with some plants reporting profits around 1 billion to 4 billion [22] - Future electricity prices are expected to stabilize if coal prices stabilize, but increased renewable energy output may exert downward pressure on prices [23] Other Important Information - The company is actively preparing for next year's production plans while ensuring the completion of current year-end tasks [1] - The management emphasized the importance of balancing capital expenditures with shareholder returns, considering cash flow needs and investment opportunities [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.42 CNY, reflecting a strong outlook for growth and profitability [5][6][23]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal industry, benefiting from both growth in its core coal business and optimization of its product structure. The new coal mines coming online are expected to enhance growth, while a high proportion of long-term contracts provides revenue stability. Additionally, cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in coal production costs [3][5][14]. - The development of new coal chemical businesses is seen as a strategic move to mitigate cyclical risks, with a focus on clean energy products that align with national industrial transformation goals. This integrated approach is expected to provide cost advantages and stabilize earnings [5][15]. - The company is recognized as a pioneer in state-owned enterprise reform within the coal sector, with expectations for increased efficiency and dividend payouts. The 2024 mid-term dividend and special dividend announcements mark a significant shift in the company's dividend policy, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and growth potential, maintaining a "Buy" rating and a target price of 16.42 CNY [5][6][23]. 2. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 187 billion CNY, 189 billion CNY, and 192 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. EPS is expected to be 1.51 CNY, 1.59 CNY, and 1.70 CNY for the same years [18][19]. 3. Coal Business Growth and Product Structure Optimization - The coal business is expected to benefit from new mine production and an optimized product mix, leading to improved profitability and reduced costs. The average coal production cost is projected to decrease to 287 CNY per ton in the first three quarters of 2024, down 2.8% year-on-year [5][14][18]. 4. New Coal Chemical Business Development - The new coal chemical business is positioned to provide stronger resistance to cyclical fluctuations, with a focus on clean energy products that support industrial transformation [15][16]. 5. Group Power Business Expansion - The company is advancing its power business, which has become the sixth-largest state-owned power enterprise, indicating potential for further growth in this sector [5][15]. 6. State-Owned Enterprise Reform Leadership - The company is leading in state-owned enterprise reform within the coal sector, with expectations for enhanced efficiency and increased dividends, marking a significant milestone in its corporate governance [5][16].

Summary of China Energy Q3 2024 Performance Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Energy - **Industry**: Energy, specifically coal and coal chemical products Key Points and Arguments Economic and Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, China Energy achieved a total production of 1.0231 million tons of coal, an increase of 1.14 million tons or 1.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The total sales volume of commercial coal was 25.51 million tons, a decrease of 4.3% [3] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 571 RMB per ton, down 5.3% year-on-year, while the average price for purchased trade coal was 598 RMB per ton, down 9.4% [3] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal was 286.60 RMB per ton, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters was 140.41 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year due to falling coal prices [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.614 billion RMB, down 12.7% year-on-year [6] - The cash flow from operating activities was 21.703 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.4% [6] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio at the end of the period was 47%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in costs due to lower raw material prices and effective cost control measures [6][12] - Significant reductions in financial expenses contributed to profit increases [6] - The company aims to maintain a balance between cost control and operational efficiency [12] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on high-quality development and safety management in Q4 2024 [7] - There is an emphasis on ensuring stable coal supply during peak demand periods and extreme weather [7] - The company is exploring opportunities for asset acquisitions in the coal sector, although no specific plans are currently in place [15][16] Market Conditions - The coal market is expected to remain stable, with average prices projected around 702 RMB per ton, compared to current prices of approximately 870 RMB [10] - The company anticipates that the coal market will not experience significant fluctuations due to macroeconomic stability [10] Coal Chemical Products - Production of major coal chemical products showed mixed results, with urea production down 22,000 tons year-on-year due to maintenance activities [4] - The average selling price for various coal chemical products varied, with some prices increasing while others decreased [5] Capital Expenditure and Investment Plans - The company has planned capital expenditures of 16 billion RMB for 2024, with a focus on coal, coal chemical, and power sectors [31][35] - Future investments will also consider potential acquisitions of coal assets to enhance operational capacity [31][32] Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a dividend policy of distributing 30% of available profits, ensuring stable returns for shareholders [36][37] Questions and Answers - Analysts raised questions regarding the coal market's pricing dynamics and the company's cost management strategies, indicating a keen interest in understanding the underlying factors affecting profitability [9][13][19][33] Additional Important Information - The company is actively pursuing technological innovations in coal chemical projects, aiming for cost reductions and efficiency improvements [28][29] - Future projects, including the expansion of existing coal mines, are in various stages of planning and regulatory approval [20][34] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic direction, and market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing and highlights China Coal Energy (CCOZY) as a strong candidate for value investors due to its favorable financial metrics and strong earnings outlook [2][4][7]. Company Analysis - China Coal Energy (CCOZY) has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value grade of A, indicating it is a top pick for value investors [4]. - The stock has a P/E ratio of 6.27, significantly lower than the industry average P/E of 7.86, suggesting it may be undervalued [4]. - Over the past 52 weeks, CCOZY's Forward P/E has fluctuated between 3.79 and 6.78, with a median of 5.37, indicating variability in market perception [4]. - CCOZY's P/B ratio stands at 0.64, compared to the industry average of 1.53, further supporting the notion of undervaluation [5]. - The P/B ratio has ranged from 0.41 to 0.69 over the past year, with a median of 0.51, reflecting its stable valuation relative to book value [5]. - The P/S ratio for CCOZY is 0.67, which is lower than the industry average of 0.94, reinforcing its attractiveness as a value stock [6]. - Overall, the financial metrics suggest that CCOZY is likely undervalued and stands out as one of the strongest value stocks in the market [7].

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported third-quarter results that met expectations, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency to steadily release profits [1] - The company's coal production and sales volume showed a year-on-year recovery, and effective cost control mitigated the impact of falling coal prices on performance [1] - The company has a high proportion of long-term contracts, indicating stable operations and long-term growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, with third-quarter revenue of 47.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.43% year-on-year, with third-quarter net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [1] - The cumulative coal production for the first three quarters was 102 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, while the cumulative coal sales volume was 206 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year [1] Cost and Pricing Analysis - The self-produced coal sales price was 571 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan per ton or 5.3% year-on-year [1] - The unit sales cost was 286.60 yuan per ton, down 8.19 yuan per ton or 2.8% year-on-year [1] - The company effectively reduced total costs through improved management of labor and transportation expenses [1] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 19.39 billion yuan, 20.39 billion yuan, and 20.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.7, and 8.6 [2][4] - The company’s valuation is below the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for price appreciation [1][3] Comparable Company Valuation - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 8.2 for 2024E, while the company’s P/E ratio is 9.2, suggesting it is undervalued compared to peers [3] - The company’s current stock price is 13.41 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 8.31-15.92 yuan [1][3]