格隆汇2月1日｜印尼煤炭矿业协会表示，政府大幅削减生产配额可能导致部分煤矿关停，这将使该国本 已陷入困境的煤炭行业雪上加霜。该协会周六在一份声明中称，根据年度工作计划批准的产量配额远低 于去年的吨位数。个别矿企的减产幅度在40%至70%之间，若产量降至可维持经营的水平以下，部分矿 企可能被迫停产。作为全球最大煤炭出口国，印尼此前宣布计划将煤炭年产量削减至约6亿吨，以支撑 煤炭价格。此外，该国还计划对煤炭征收出口附加费，这将进一步削弱行业盈利能力。该协会呼吁政府 重新评估配额削减计划，并考虑煤矿的实际运营可行性，称此举可能导致大规模裁员和矿企贷款违约。 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 海外市场 优选地产、大宗和科技——2026 年 2 月海外金股推荐 近期重点事件： 1 月 25 日，腾讯元宝、百度 App 分别宣布了其春节红包派发计划。1）当日，腾讯元宝微 信公众号发布《关于春节分 10 亿现金的通知》称，将在 2 月 1 日上线春节活动，用户上元 宝 App 分 10 亿元现金红包，单个红包金额可达万元。2）百度宣布，自 1 月 26 日至 3 月 12 日，用户在百度 APP 搜索"春节红包"，就有机会瓜分 5 亿元红包，单个红包最高 1 万元。 此外，百度特别提示，红包任务已融入文心助手的近百种春节创意玩法之中。活动期间，只 要使用文心助手，就能获得上述红包。 阿里、Kimi、DeepSeek 相继发布新模型。1）1 月 26 日晚间，阿里正式发布千问旗舰推 理模型 Qwen3-Max-Thinking。该模型总参数量超万亿（1T），预训练数据量高达 36T Tokens （文本处理的最小单位），是目前阿里规模最大、能力最强的千问推理模型。2）1 月 27 日， Kimi 发布并开源 Kimi ...

[Table_Page] 金融工程|定期报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金融工程：AI 识图关注石化、化工 和有色 A 股量化择时研究报告 [Table_Summary 市场回顾（本期是指 ] 2026 年 1 月 26 日—2026 年 1 月 30 日） 结构表现 (涨幅) 中证 100 沪深 300 中证 500 中证 800 中证 1000 国证 2000 0.29% 0.08% -2.56% -0.70% -2.55% -2.76% 行业表现 强度前五：石油石化、通信、煤炭、有色金属、农林牧渔。 强度后五：国防军工、电力设备、汽车、计算机、综合。 市场估值 指数估值 ↓：深证指数 行业估值 相对 PE 较低：食品饮料、建筑装饰、电力设备、美容护理、 煤炭。 相对 PE 较高：计算机、电子、农林牧渔、钢铁、传媒。 市场情绪 新高比例 创近 60 日新高个股数占比从前一期的 16.9%降至 10.5%。 新低比例 创近 60 日新低个股数占比从前一期的 6.9%升至 9.4%。 均线结构 多头排列减空头排列个股占比从前一期的 17.6%升至 29.0%。 矿 ...

以下文章来源于不懂经 ，作者不懂经也叔的Rust 不懂经 . 《主权个人》：未来会活得很爽的有三种人，一是技术精英，二是各行业头部，三是有资本及良好判断 力的人。本号专注后面两种。 本文来自微信公众号： 不懂经 ，作者：不懂经也叔，原文标题：《普通人与赚钱高手的根本差距， 是一种近乎本能的"商业导向"》，头图来自：AI生成 2023年5月，在去世前几个月，查理·芒格做了一件事。 这位99岁的亿万富翁，读到一篇唱衰煤炭的文章，他认为这"简直是胡说八道 （Horse feathers） 。"然后就开始研究煤炭生产商。 他发现Consol Energy和Alpha Metallurgical Resources的估值极低，因为市场普遍认为煤炭已经完蛋 了。芒格不这么看。他买入了这两只股票。 到他去世时，这一笔投资为他带来了超过5000万美元的账面收益。 对一个身家数十亿、生命只剩数月的老人而言，5000万不过是零头。他本可安享晚年，为何还要在 生命终点研究一个"夕阳行业"？ 答案藏在他骨子里的一种本能：对赚钱近乎偏执的纯粹渴望。这种渴望如此原始，以至于时间、年龄 甚至死亡都无法将其剥离。 这个故事让我想起一个问题： ...

策略周报 大炼化，下一个有色 策略周末谈（0201） 核心结论 1、有色/白酒/大炼化的底层逻辑是相通的：交易美联储 QE 近期，我们明确看好的有色、白酒和大炼化板块行情持续得到验证，有色金 属早已率先迎来超级周期，白酒和石油也如我们预期在极致低位迎来反弹。 我们坚定看多有色/白酒/大炼化，并非单纯基于行业微观变化，而是准确捕 捉到了底层的核心驱动力：泛滥的美元流动性会更加泛滥，也就是 2026 年 美联储 QE。我们在 1.18《白酒，在康波中重生》判断，2026 年中或是美联 储 QE 的最佳窗口期，顺周期"冰火转换"时刻将至，重视石油/化工/白酒。 2、现在买入大炼化，就如同去年买入有色 我们从 2025.3.9《稀缺资产：拥抱"反脆弱性"》开始持续提示有色的投资机 会，并在 2025.4.23《大宗商品，走向 1978》中进一步强调"在逆全球化+美 元失信的双重作用下，大宗商品正一步步走向 1978 年的二次滞胀"。回过头 来看，有色行情正沿着我们最初设想的路径演绎，底层驱动力正是我们持续 强调的"美元流动性泛滥"。 既然看懂了有色的上涨逻辑，就没有理由错过大炼化。我们在 1.11《康波的 凝视：油价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong energy nation in China, highlighting the need for comprehensive improvements in energy technology, industrial chains, and system capabilities to enhance international competitiveness and support sustainable economic development [2]. Group 1: New Energy System Construction - The new energy system is a central theme in the transition to an energy powerhouse, with a focus on accelerating the construction of this system and achieving carbon peak goals [3]. - The development of non-fossil energy sources will be prioritized, with significant expansions in wind and solar power capacity, aiming for an additional 200 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2026 [3]. - The integration of various energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, and marine energy, will complement the new energy system [3]. Group 2: Clean and Efficient Use of Fossil Fuels - The transition to cleaner and more efficient use of fossil fuels is essential during the period when new energy sources are not yet dominant [4]. - Coal power will be transformed into a flexible and clean energy source through technological upgrades and innovative mechanisms, ensuring energy supply security [4]. - By 2026, initiatives will be implemented to promote carbon capture and utilization in the oil and gas sector, facilitating the integration of fossil fuels with new energy [5]. Group 3: New Power System Development - A new power system must be established to ensure the efficient transmission and management of clean energy, requiring the construction of high-voltage transmission lines and smart grid systems [5]. - By 2026, a power supply alert mechanism will be established to enhance the interconnection of power grids and improve user-side responsiveness [5]. Group 4: Overcoming Bottlenecks in New Energy Development - China aims to lead global energy transformation, with a target of achieving a total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching six times that of 2020 by 2035 [6]. - The challenges faced by the power system, such as the inability to transmit green energy from the west to the east and the volatility of renewable energy generation, need to be addressed through integrated and innovative development [6][7]. - The focus will shift from mere scale expansion to value creation through system collaboration, enhancing the reliability and market competitiveness of new energy [7]. Group 5: Coal Consumption Trends - Coal consumption in China has shown signs of decline, with a notable negative growth for the first time since 2017, but short-term demand remains resilient due to various factors [10]. - The long-term trend indicates a gradual reduction in coal consumption, with a peak expected around 2027, transitioning coal's role from a primary energy source to a backup energy source [11]. - The integration of coal and new energy will be emphasized, promoting the development of clean energy alternatives in coal mining areas [12][13]. Group 6: Future Industry Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need to cultivate future industries such as quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion, which are crucial for energy security and sustainable development [15]. - Hydrogen energy is seen as a key component of the future energy system, with efforts to promote its commercialization and integration into the energy landscape [16]. - Nuclear fusion is positioned as a long-term solution for energy challenges, with significant investments and research expected to accelerate its development [17].

更多内容 扫码观看 点亮一盏电灯、驱动一台机器、激活一项技术……经济社会运行中，能源的身影无处不在。能源的发展 状况，影响着一个国家的发展走势。"十五五"规划建议提出，建设能源强国。能源强国首次出现在五年 规划里，意味着我国经济社会发展对能源的需求，已不仅是保障供应那么简单，更要通过能源技术、产 业链和系统能力的全面提升，增强国际竞争力，支撑经济社会可持续发展。 我们需要一个什么样的能源强国？怎么建设能源强国？从新能源规模扩张到化石能源清洁转型，从新型 电力系统搭建完善到新能源集成融合发展，从煤炭与新能源协同共生到氢能、核聚变能等未来产业前瞻 布局，一系列关键举措落地实施，将推动我国能源发展实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为社会主义 现代化强国建设注入强劲动力。 新型能源体系如何建 在能源强国这台"大戏"里，新型能源体系是主角。 建设能源强国，新能源是主力。过去一年，随着新能源占比越来越高，电力系统面临的挑战也在加大： 西部地区的绿电难送出，东部城市的绿电不够用，风光发电"看天吃饭"的波动性让电网承压，市场化竞 争力不足，这些"成长的烦恼"成为制约新能源高质量发展的瓶颈。 党的二十届四中全会提出，加快建设新型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of a strong energy nation is crucial for China's economic and social progress, emphasizing the need for comprehensive enhancement of energy technology, industrial chains, and system capabilities to boost international competitiveness and support sustainable development [1]. Group 1: New Energy System Construction - The new energy system is the main focus in building a strong energy nation, with a shift from top-level design to comprehensive construction during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - The goal is to significantly increase the share of non-fossil energy, with plans to add over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity annually by 2026 [2]. - The integration of various energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, and marine energy, will complement the new energy system [2]. Group 2: Clean and Efficient Use of Fossil Energy - The transition to cleaner and more flexible coal power is essential during the transition period, with coal power expected to act as a stabilizer for energy supply [3]. - By 2026, efforts will focus on upgrading coal power technology and promoting carbon capture and utilization in the oil and gas sector [3]. - The construction of a new power system will require the establishment of high-voltage lines and smart grids to ensure efficient energy distribution [3]. Group 3: Overcoming Bottlenecks in New Energy Development - China aims to lead global energy transformation, with a target of achieving six times the wind and solar power capacity by 2035 compared to 2020 levels [5]. - Challenges such as the inability to transmit green electricity from western regions to eastern cities and the volatility of renewable energy generation need to be addressed [6]. - The focus will shift from simple capacity expansion to system collaboration and value creation in new energy development [6]. Group 4: Coal Consumption Trends - Coal consumption in China has shown signs of decline, with a negative growth rate for the first time since 2017, but short-term demand is expected to remain resilient [9]. - The long-term trend indicates a gradual reduction in coal consumption, with a peak expected around 2027, after which a more significant decline is anticipated [10]. - The integration of coal and new energy is essential for the sustainable development of the coal industry, with initiatives to develop renewable energy in coal mining areas [11]. Group 5: Future Industry Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to cultivate future industries such as hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, which are critical for energy security and sustainable development [14]. - Hydrogen energy is seen as a key component of the future energy system, with efforts to support pilot projects and promote large-scale applications [15]. - Nuclear fusion is positioned as a long-term solution for energy challenges, with significant investments and research needed to overcome commercialization hurdles [16][17].

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 报告摘要 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 相关报告 本周 A 股市场整体呈现高位震荡回落格局，成交维持高位但赚钱效应明显走弱。从 指数表现看，市场结构分化显著：主要宽基指数多数下跌，其中上证指数本周下跌 0.44%，深证成指下跌 1.62%，创业板指基本持平（-0.09%）。从成交情况看，市 场交投依然活跃。本周万得全 A 日均成交额约 3.06 万亿元，较上周提升约 9.44%， 显示尽管指数承压，但增量资金并未明显撤离，市场流动性基础仍然稳固。从赚钱效 应看，本周市场情绪明显降温。全周日均上涨家数占比仅为 34.80%，较上周大幅回 落，个股层面呈现"跌多涨少"的特征。 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 本周 A 股大宗商品相关板块表现强势，成为周度涨幅靠前的核心主线，但内部分化 与波动显著放大。从申万一级行业周度涨幅来看，石油石化（7 ...

Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,847.47 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,430.80 | 全球能源价格普涨，关注煤炭配置机会 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 2026-01-24 位个股》2026-01-17 稳向好有望延续》2026-01-10 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E ...