Group 1 - LRT Capital Management's "LRT Global Opportunities Strategy" reported a net return of -8.00% in September 2025, with a year-to-date return of -0.17% [1] - The strategy faced challenges as market indexes surged, particularly driven by a few overvalued mega-cap stocks, while the broader market declined [1] - The fund's top five holdings were highlighted as key picks for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Chemed Corporation (NYSE:CHE) is noted for its unique structure, operating in two non-correlated sectors: hospice care through VITAS and plumbing services through Roto-Rooter [3] - Chemed Corporation's one-month return was 5.91%, but it experienced a significant decline of 25.88% over the past 52 weeks [2] - As of October 6, 2025, Chemed Corporation's stock closed at $435.38 per share, with a market capitalization of $6.344 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chemed Corporation will present at the Jefferies 2025 Healthcare Services Conference on September 30, 2025, at 1:50 p.m. (CT) [1] Company Information - The presentation will take place at the 1 Hotel in Nashville [1] - The event will be webcast live, and materials will be accessible on the Chemed website [1] - A replay of the webcast will be available within 24 hours after the live presentation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring recession indicators following the first federal funds rate cut of the year, with a struggling housing market and labor market warnings suggesting a potential recession, despite rising stock prices [1] Group 1: Church & Dwight (CHD) - Church & Dwight Co. Inc. is recognized for its essential household and personal care brands, which may provide insulation from a potential recession due to their perceived necessity [2][3] - The company has a long history of dividend increases, with a yield of 1.36% and a conservative payout ratio of 55.66%, making it a potential source of stability during volatile periods [3] - CHD shares have declined over 10% year-to-date, attributed to tariff impacts, but analysts predict a recovery with an upside potential of over 14% [4] Group 2: Spire Inc. (SR) - Spire Inc. is a regional natural gas utility firm expanding through the acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas, which is expected to add over 200,000 customers and contribute to an estimated 8% bottom-line increase in the coming year [5] - The company maintains low operational costs, growing by less than 1% year-to-date, which provides protection against inflation, alongside a dividend yield of 4.08% and a payout ratio of 67.12% [6] Group 3: Chemed Corp. (CHE) - Chemed Corp. operates in home services and healthcare, with its brands Roto-Rooter and Vitas Healthcare providing recession-resistant services [8] - The company faces challenges such as hospice care caps and rising insurance costs, which have pressured CHE shares to their lowest P/E level in over four years, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term strength [9]

Core Thesis - Chemed Corporation (CHE) is viewed positively due to its strong market position in hospice care and plumbing services, with significant growth potential in the hospice market [1][2][5] Business Overview - Chemed operates two main businesses: VITAS, the largest hospice provider in the U.S., contributing 58% of revenue and growing around 9%, and Roto-Rooter, a plumbing service provider, contributing 42% of revenue and growing approximately 1.7% [2] - The U.S. hospice market is projected to grow from $29.9 billion to $39.1 billion by 2030, indicating a strong growth trajectory for VITAS [2] Financial Performance - Chemed generates annual free cash flow between $250 million and $367 million, has no debt beyond leases, and holds $249 million in cash, allowing for opportunistic share repurchases [4] - The stock is currently trading near multi-year lows on P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics, suggesting potential for re-rating as market focus shifts to 2026 earnings [4] Challenges and Mitigation Strategies - Recent stock price decline was attributed to a Medicare cap issue in Florida, which limited revenue recognition for VITAS due to higher state reimbursement rates [3] - Management has strategies in place to address these challenges, including increasing admissions and optimizing patient mix, which are expected to mitigate cap risks and create a $30 million cushion for 2026 [3][4] Market Outlook - The stock is seen as having a compelling risk/reward profile, with a potential upside of 26% as earnings improve, while downside risk is limited to approximately 12% [4] - The operational resilience and financial strength of Chemed support a bullish outlook despite recent short-term headwinds [5]

Core Insights - ServiceTitan has announced a strategic partnership with Roto-Rooter, enhancing Roto-Rooter's operations with ServiceTitan's technology to drive growth and profitability [1][2] - The partnership aims to unlock new revenue opportunities and improve operational efficiency across Roto-Rooter's extensive network [2][3] - Roto-Rooter, a leader in plumbing and water cleanup services, operates in 121 company-owned territories and over 345 franchise territories in the U.S. and Canada [6] Company Overview - ServiceTitan is a cloud-based software platform designed to support trades businesses, providing tools for business management and customer experience enhancement [5] - Roto-Rooter, founded in 1935, is the largest provider of plumbing, drain cleaning, and water cleanup services in North America, with a strong commitment to technological innovation [6][3] Partnership Impact - The partnership will leverage ServiceTitan's technology across Roto-Rooter's national call centers and branch locations, aiming to set a new standard for service excellence in the industry [4][3] - Roto-Rooter's field employees and office staff will benefit from increased efficiency and automation, allowing them to focus more on customer service [3][2]

Financial Performance - Consolidated service revenues and sales for Q2 2025 increased by 3.8% to $618.8 million compared to $595.9 million in Q2 2024, with VITAS contributing $21.6 million and Roto-Rooter $1.3 million to the increase [124]. - Adjusted net income for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $145.8 million, down from $163.3 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a decrease of 10.7% [110]. - Net income for Q2 2025 was $52.5 million, down from $70.9 million in Q2 2024, with VITAS and Roto-Rooter segments reporting declines in net income [134]. - The consolidated net income for the first half of 2025 was $124,250,000, down from $135,904,000 in 2024 [156]. - The diluted earnings per share as reported for the six months ended June 30, 2025 was $8.43, down from $8.89 in 2024 [158]. Revenue Growth - VITAS experienced a 5.8% increase in net revenue for Q2 2025, driven by a 6.1% increase in days-of-care and a 4.2% increase in Medicare reimbursement rates [111]. - Service revenues for the first six months of 2025 increased by 6.8% to $1.27 billion, with VITAS contributing $75.0 million and Roto-Rooter $5.6 million to the increase [137]. - The company reported a significant increase in service revenues for VITAS, which rose to $803,600,000 in 2025 from $374,558,000 in 2024 [151]. - Roto-Rooter's service revenues increased to $462,141,000 in the first half of 2025, up from $221,322,000 in 2024 [151]. - Total service revenues and sales for the first six months of 2025 reached $1,265,741,000, compared to $1,227,880,000 in the same period of 2024 [151]. Expenses and Costs - Consolidated gross margin for Q2 2025 was 29.8%, down from 34.6% in Q2 2024, primarily due to a $15.0 million increase in Medicare Cap liability [129]. - Total SG&A expenses for Q2 2025 were $100.3 million, a 1.0% decrease from $102.3 million in Q2 2024, with a 2.6% increase in SG&A expenses before long-term incentive compensation [130]. - The total costs and expenses for the first half of 2025 were $1,102,899,000, an increase from $1,007,755,000 in 2024 [151]. - Corporate expenses decreased by 7.3% to $35,857,000 in the first six months of 2025, primarily due to an $8.5 million reduction in stock-based compensation [145][151]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company reported a $9.3 million increase in net cash provided by operating activities from June 30, 2024, to June 30, 2025 [115]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had approximately $404.5 million of unused lines of credit available under its revolving credit facility [119]. - The company anticipates that operating income and cash flows will be sufficient to meet business commitments for the foreseeable future [116]. Operational Metrics - Days of care at VITAS increased by 6.1% to 2,030,913 for the three months ended June 30, 2025, compared to 1,914,284 in the same period of 2024 [125]. - The average daily census for Homecare in Q2 2025 was 18,269, compared to 17,046 in Q2 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.1% [160]. - Total admissions in the first half of 2025 were 35,684, an increase from 32,245 in the first half of 2024, marking a growth of 10.3% [160]. - The average length of stay increased to 137.1 days in Q2 2025 from 100.6 days in Q2 2024 [160]. Tax and Other Income - Effective tax rate for the first six months of 2025 was 25.5%, compared to 23.8% in the same period of 2024 [141]. - Total other income for the first six months of 2025 was $4.7 million, a significant decrease from $18.7 million in the same period of 2024, driven by lower interest income [141]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue focusing on market expansion and new product development to drive future growth [155]. - The company is actively evaluating interest rate exposure and considering hedging techniques to manage risks [163].

Core Insights - Chemed missed expectations on both revenue and earnings for Q2, leading to a 9% decline in share price [1] - The company reported a 4% increase in sales but a significant 22% drop in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) [2] - Management has lowered the 2025 EPS guidance from $25.20 to $22.15, indicating a 4% decline from the previous year [2] - CEO of Vitas Healthcare, Nick Westfall, announced his resignation, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the company [2] Revenue and Profitability - Chemed's Q2 revenue growth was steady at 4%, but profitability issues were evident across all business segments [3] - Vitas Healthcare experienced a 4% revenue growth but faced Medicare cap billing limitations, resulting in a 24% decline in earnings [4] - Excluding one-time impacts, Vitas's adjusted EBITDA remained flat for the quarter [4] Roto-Rooter Performance - Roto-Rooter, Chemed's plumbing business, achieved only 1% sales growth while net income fell by 20% due to increased marketing costs [6] - The company faces challenges from advertising pressures, particularly from Google, which affects visibility in free search areas [6] - Despite these challenges, Roto-Rooter remains the largest plumbing company in North America, warranting investor attention [7] Future Outlook - Chemed is currently navigating several challenges but is valued at 20 times free cash flow, suggesting potential for a turnaround [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - VITAS net revenue was $396.2 million in 2025, an increase of 5.8% compared to the prior year period, driven by a 6.1% increase in days of care and a 4.2% increase in Medicare reimbursement rates [12] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding Medicare Cap totaled $66.8 million in the quarter, essentially flat with 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2%, down 163 basis points from the prior year [15][16] - Roto Rooter revenue increased by 6% in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, falling short of internal expectations [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Admissions at DITAS totaled 17,545, a 1.2% improvement from the same period in 2024, with a 4.9% increase when excluding patient transfers from VITAS [5] - Roto Rooter branch residential revenue totaled $156.4 million, a 9% increase from the prior year, driven by a 16.9% increase in water restoration [17] - Roto Rooter branch commercial revenue totaled $53.2 million, a 4.4% increase from the prior year, with a 24.4% increase in excavation revenue [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hospital-directed admissions increased by 9.1%, while home-based patient admissions declined by 6.2%, nursing home admissions declined by 2.9%, and assisted living facilities admissions declined by 1.4% compared to the prior year [6] - The consolidated Florida program is estimated to end the 2025 Medicare cap year with a $19 million billing limitation, with management expecting no significant Medicare cap billing limitation for the 2026 cap year [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains confident in the growth potential and strategic direction of both businesses despite underperformance in 2025 [5] - VITAS is adjusting its patient mix in Florida to mitigate Medicare cap issues, which may cause some disruption in operating metrics but is expected to lead to higher growth rates in the long term [10] - Roto Rooter is focusing on improving its competitive advantages to return to a steadier growth trajectory [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management commented on the impact of the Liberation Day tariff announcement on consumer confidence and spending, which affected Roto Rooter's performance in April and May [9] - The company is optimistic about the overall prospects for both businesses, with VITAS working on initiatives to improve admissions and Roto Rooter focusing on enhancing its service offerings [10][11] Other Important Information - The company estimates $28.2 million in Medicare cap billing limitations for calendar 2025, with $19 million related to the Florida combined program [23] - Roto Rooter's adjusted EBITDA totaled $48.6 million, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the prior year quarter, with a margin of 21.8% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Medicare cap and future margins - Management discussed the levers being pulled to ensure no carryover impact from the Medicare cap after Q3, emphasizing hospital admissions and the moderation of the patient mix bubble created by the Community Access Program [28][29] Question: Factors driving underperformance in admissions - Management noted that the increase in admissions was intentionally moderated to avoid providing services without reimbursement, focusing on hospital admissions instead [38][40] Question: Roto Rooter management issues and recovery - Management indicated that local management issues have been resolved, and the recovery seen in June and July is attributed to improved operational performance rather than management changes [49][50] Question: Tax rate favorability in Q2 - The decline in the effective tax rate was attributed to accounting factors related to stock option exercises, with fewer exercises in the quarter leading to a larger tax deduction [65][66] Question: Confidence in short stay patient mix - Management expressed confidence in achieving a higher mix of short stay patients through improved operational emphasis and reputation [70][71] Question: Capital deployment and acquisition strategy - The company remains open to acquisitions at the right valuation and location, with no change in strategy despite current business challenges [98]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - VITAS net revenue was $396.2 million in Q2 2025, representing a 5.8% increase compared to the prior year period, driven by a 6.1% increase in days of care and a 4.2% increase in Medicare reimbursement rates [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding Medicare Cap totaled $66.8 million in the quarter, essentially flat with 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2%, down 163 basis points from the prior year [16][17] - Roto Rooter revenue increased 6% in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, falling short of internal expectations [8][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DITAS admissions totaled 17,545, a 1.2% improvement from the same period in 2024, with a 4.9% increase when excluding patient transfers to VITAS [5][6] - Roto Rooter branch residential revenue was $156.4 million, a 9% increase from the prior year, driven by a 16.9% increase in water restoration [20] - Roto Rooter adjusted EBITDA decreased by 18.7% to $48.6 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8%, reflecting inefficiencies in the labor force due to lower residential revenues [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hospital-directed admissions increased by 9.1%, while home-based patient admissions declined by 6.2%, nursing home admissions declined by 2.9%, and assisted living facilities admissions declined by 1.4% compared to the prior year [6][10] - The consolidated Florida program is projected to end the 2025 Medicare cap year with a $19 million billing limitation, with management expecting no significant Medicare cap billing limitation for the 2026 cap year [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains confident in the growth potential and strategic direction of both businesses despite underperformance in Q2 2025 [5][11] - VITAS is adjusting its patient mix in Florida to mitigate Medicare cap issues, which may cause some disruption in operating metrics but positions the company for long-term growth [11][12] - Roto Rooter is focusing on improving its competitive advantages and is optimistic about returning to a steadier growth trajectory [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the weak admissions in April and May were influenced by external factors affecting consumer confidence and spending [10][11] - The company is optimistic about the overall prospects for both businesses, with VITAS management actively reviewing expenses to offset lower EBITDA margins [17][21] - Management expects to update assumptions regarding rates and the overall outlook for the 2026 Medicare cap year in the third quarter earnings release [7][26] Other Important Information - The company estimates $28.2 million in Medicare cap billing limitations for calendar 2025, with no limitations expected in the fourth quarter related to the Florida combined program [26] - Roto Rooter is forecasted to have a revenue increase of 1.25% to 1.75% in 2025 compared to 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be 23.5% to 24.5% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What measures are being taken to avoid Medicare cap issues in 2026? - Management emphasized hospital admissions and the moderation of the patient mix bubble created by the Community Access Program as key levers to avoid cap issues [31][32] Question: What is the outlook for admissions and revenue growth? - Management indicated that while admissions were slightly below expectations, they are confident in achieving a higher mix of short-stay patients moving forward [70][72] Question: How are local management issues affecting Roto Rooter's recovery? - Management stated that past local management issues have been resolved, and the focus is now on improving conversion rates and addressing market challenges [51][56] Question: What is the impact of the recent tax rate changes? - The effective tax rate decline was attributed to accounting factors related to stock option exercises, which are not expected to persist [67][68] Question: Is there a change in the company's acquisition strategy? - The company remains open to acquisitions at the right valuation and location, with no change in overall strategy despite current challenges [100][102]

Core Viewpoint - Chemed reported quarterly earnings of $4.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.78 per share, and down from $5.47 per share a year ago, indicating a negative earnings surprise of -10.67% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $618.8 million for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.45% and up from $595.88 million year-over-year [3] - Chemed has exceeded consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters [3] Stock Performance - Chemed shares have declined approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [4] - The current Zacks Rank for Chemed is 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [7] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $5.69 on revenues of $632.43 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $23.09 on revenues of $2.56 billion [8] - The trend of estimate revisions for Chemed was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, which may impact future stock performance [7] Industry Context - Chemed operates within the Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare industry, which is currently ranked in the top 38% of over 250 Zacks industries [9] - The performance of Chemed's stock may be influenced by the overall outlook of the industry, as top-ranked industries tend to outperform lower-ranked ones significantly [9]