Core Viewpoint - Chewy is positioned as a strong investment opportunity amid tariff concerns, with a notable gain of over 15% in April, driven by its domestic focus and solid fundamentals [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Investors are seeking stocks that are insulated from potential price spikes due to tariffs, leading to increased interest in Chewy [1]. - Citigroup highlighted Chewy as a buy in its analysis of retail stocks, emphasizing that large retailers are more exposed to tariff impacts due to their imports [3][5]. - Analysts, including Piper Sandler's Anna Andreeva, have reiterated bullish recommendations for Chewy, citing a price target of $40 per share [6]. Group 2: Market Trends - There is an anticipated rise in overall pet ownership in the U.S., particularly among cat owners, which could benefit Chewy [7]. - Chewy's healthcare products are gaining favor among veterinarians, further enhancing its market position [7]. Group 3: Company Growth and Strategy - Chewy is transitioning from rapid growth to a more mature stage, yet it continues to show encouraging growth through its Autoship renewal program, which fosters recurring revenue and customer loyalty [9]. - The fundamental story of Chewy remains compelling, suggesting it is a strong buy candidate despite potential fading of the tariff hedge narrative [10].

Economic Overview - U.S. consumer confidence has declined for the fifth consecutive month in April, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping to 86, a decrease of 7.9 points from the previous month, falling short of market expectations [1][2] - This is the weakest level recorded in almost five years, indicating growing unease among consumers due to economic pressures such as trade tensions, rising tariffs, and fears over job security [2] Consumer Spending Impact - The Federal Reserve and financial markets are closely monitoring the decline in consumer sentiment, as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. GDP, suggesting that changes in spending patterns could significantly impact future economic growth [3] Company Adaptation Strategies - Companies like Sprouts Farmers Market, The Gap, Chewy, and Stitch Fix are better positioned to navigate the current economic challenges due to their solid business models and focus on value and essentials [4] Sprouts Farmers Market - Sprouts Farmers Market is focusing on product innovation, targeted marketing, and competitive pricing to expand its customer base and meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in the health food segment [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a growth of 12.3% in sales and 28.8% in earnings per share (EPS) for the current financial year compared to the previous year [9] The Gap - The Gap is leveraging its broad brand portfolio and enhancing operational efficiency while driving digital transformation and investing in product innovation to maintain competitiveness [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a growth of 1.5% in sales and 7.7% in EPS for the current financial year compared to the previous year [11] Chewy - Chewy is enhancing its position in the online pet retail market through innovation and customer loyalty initiatives, such as the Autoship program, which secures predictable revenues [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a growth of 4.5% in sales and 18.3% in EPS for the current financial year compared to the previous year [13] Stitch Fix - Stitch Fix is improving its inventory management and expanding private brand offerings to enhance profitability while focusing on personalized client experiences [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a growth of 64.7% in the bottom line for the current financial year compared to the previous year [15]

Group 1: Shopify - Shopify is a leading platform for merchants to manage e-commerce operations, with over 875 million unique shoppers purchasing from Shopify merchants last year [3][4] - The company experienced a revenue growth of 26% last year, accelerating to 31% year over year in Q4, with $9 billion in annual revenue primarily from merchant solutions [4] - Shopify's gross merchandise volume of $292 billion in 2024 represents less than 5% of the global e-commerce market, indicating significant growth potential [5] - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence through partnerships, which could enhance its market position and customer engagement [6] - Given the growth trajectory of the e-commerce market, Shopify is expected to continue growing and provide excellent returns for investors [7] Group 2: Chewy - Chewy is a prominent online pet store brand, expanding into pet healthcare and clinics, which strengthens customer loyalty [8] - The company finished 2024 with a revenue increase of 15% year over year in Q4, despite previous slowdowns due to inflation and consumer spending [8] - Chewy has a loyal customer base of 20 million, with average spending per customer rising from $434 in 2021 to $578 last year, indicating high customer satisfaction [10] - Over 80% of Chewy's annual sales come from its autoship program, which enhances customer retention [10] - Investments in pharmacy and veterinary services are expected to yield higher margins, potentially boosting the stock's value significantly over the next decade [11]

Core Viewpoint - Chewy is showing strong performance in the market, with significant gains in stock price and positive earnings forecasts, indicating investor confidence and potential growth opportunities. Group 1: Stock Performance - Chewy closed at $37.50, reflecting a +0.78% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.15% [1] - Over the past month, Chewy's shares increased by 11.14%, significantly surpassing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.27% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.21% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Chewy is expected to report an EPS of $0.34, representing a 9.68% increase from the same quarter last year, with projected revenue of $3.07 billion, a 6.85% rise year-over-year [2] - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.23 per share and revenue of $12.4 billion, indicating increases of +18.27% and +4.52%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for Chewy reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in the company's performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimated changes, currently ranks Chewy at 2 (Buy), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having increased by 3.83% in the past month [6] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Chewy's Forward P/E ratio stands at 30.23, higher than the industry average of 23.44, suggesting that Chewy is trading at a premium [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 3.2, compared to the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 1.41, indicating a higher valuation relative to expected earnings growth [8] Group 5: Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 61, placing it in the top 25% of over 250 industries, suggesting strong overall performance [8][9]

Group 1 - Chewy (CHWY) has shown a year-to-date performance increase of approximately 11.1%, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector, which has returned an average of -3.5% [4] - Chewy is currently ranked 2 (Buy) in the Zacks Rank, indicating strong analyst sentiment and an improving earnings outlook, with a 0.8% increase in the consensus estimate for full-year earnings over the past quarter [3] - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which Chewy belongs, has seen an average decline of 6.4% this year, further highlighting Chewy's relative strength within its industry [5] Group 2 - The Retail-Wholesale sector consists of 210 individual stocks and is currently ranked 11 in the Zacks Sector Rank [2] - Another stock in the Retail-Wholesale sector, Industria de Diseno Textil SA (IDEXY), has also outperformed the sector with a year-to-date increase of 7.5% [4] - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which includes Industria de Diseno Textil SA, is ranked 153 and has experienced a significant decline of -23.1% this year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chewy Inc. (CHWY) has experienced significant stock performance, rising 14.5% in the past month, outperforming the industry which saw a decline of 2% [1][7]. Company Performance - Chewy's stock closed at $37.21, which is 7.2% below its 52-week high of $40.09, but it is trading above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [9][18]. - The company has returned to year-over-year active customer growth, ending fiscal 2024 with 20.5 million active customers, a 2.1% increase from the previous year [14]. Revenue Drivers - Chewy's Autoship program generated $2.62 billion in sales in Q4 of fiscal 2024, reflecting a 21.2% year-over-year increase and now represents 80.6% of total net sales [13]. - The company anticipates net sales for fiscal 2025 to be between $12.3 billion and $12.45 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6% to 7% [17][19]. Market Position and Strategy - Chewy is transitioning from a pure-play e-commerce retailer to a diversified pet care platform, focusing on high-margin services and customer loyalty [6][21]. - The entry into the veterinary services market through Chewy Vet Care Clinics opens access to a $25 billion total addressable market, with plans to open 8 to 10 new clinics in fiscal 2025 [15]. Financial Health - Chewy reported free cash flow of $452.5 million in fiscal 2024 and ended the year with $597 million in cash and cash equivalents, remaining debt-free [16]. - The company has a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.22X, which is below the industry average of 2.09X, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [20].

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头高盛集团在最新发布的一份美国电商行业研究报告中，系统性地分析了全球关税政策升级对美国电商行业的多维度冲 击，重点聚焦终端需求变化与美国关税政策之下的电商成本传导机制。高盛研究团队基于宏观经济模型、历史周期对比(2007-2009年金融危机参照)以及高频 数据跟踪，预判2025Q1与Q2电商板块面临关税成本带来的盈利预期下行风险，但结构性的投资机遇存在于未来消费者们愈发向服务性质的消费转移以及电 商龙头平台的强大业绩韧性，这些颇具弹性的电商股有望大幅跑赢美股大盘——标普500指数。 在美股市场，多数电商股，以及零售类股票自4月以来持续面临抛售，大幅跑输标普500指数，并且美国金融市场出现史上罕见的"股债汇三杀"，主要逻辑在 于全球资金对于美元资产的持有信心因特朗普关税政策带来的宏观经济层面巨大不确定性，以及特朗普政府欲罢免鲍威尔威胁到美联储独立性而大幅削减， 加之多数投资者押注特朗普激进的进口商品关税政策带来的通胀卷土重来趋势，可能令近年来因通胀持续高企而钱包捉襟见肘的美国消费者们愈发削减支 出。 密歇根大学消费者调查数据显示，消费者信心指数创下自2022年6月以来的最低水平， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for North America [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a framework of "visibility to free cash flow (FCF) vs valuation" to analyze potential durable outperformance in the current macroeconomic environment, with META, GOOGL, and UBER identified as top performers [1][10]. - The macroeconomic outlook includes muted GDP growth expectations of 0.6% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, alongside firming inflation and a steady Federal Reserve [2]. - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of e-commerce and digital advertising, noting that e-commerce drives online advertising and vice versa, with META positioned as the most resilient in the face of tariff impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The focus is on three macro factors: business confidence, hiring trends, and consumer spending health, which are critical for driving investment and hiring decisions [2]. Tariff Exposure - The report details the estimated exposure of U.S. imports from China across various e-commerce companies, with AMZN and RVLV having around 18% exposure, while PTON and FIGS have less than 2% [3][19]. - It discusses the potential ripple effects of China tariffs on digital advertising, particularly affecting smaller businesses and 1P/3P sellers [4]. Visibility vs Valuation Framework - The report employs a quadrant analysis to assess visibility and valuation support, indicating that companies with higher visibility on earnings and cash flow are likely to receive more investor capital first [10][11]. - META and GOOGL are highlighted for their high margin and reasonable valuations, with META favored due to its audience engagement factors and innovations [13]. Company-Specific Insights - CHWY is noted for its high resilience and FCF visibility due to its autoship model, while UBER is recognized for its smaller standard deviation of FCF in 2026 [14][15]. - Companies like BKNG and DASH are also mentioned for their visibility and execution capabilities, while FIGS and PTON face more risks due to their discretionary nature and tariff impacts [16][17]. Price Target Changes - The report outlines price target adjustments for several companies, including a reduction for GOOGL from $210 to $185 and for META from $660 to $615, reflecting lowered revenue estimates due to macroeconomic pressures [39][40].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment position of Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, and mentions that The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chewy [1] Company Insights - The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy regarding its investment positions [1] - Parkev Tatevosian is affiliated with The Motley Fool and may receive compensation for promoting its services [1]

Industry Overview - The Internet-Commerce sector has experienced significant growth since the pandemic, particularly among Gen-Z consumers who are accustomed to high levels of digitization [1] - The evolution of Internet-Commerce is driven by advancements in user devices and AI-enabled software platforms that enhance transaction capabilities and user satisfaction [2] - E-commerce differentiation is achieved through improved technology for showcasing products, easier navigation, payment options, faster delivery, and enhanced brand loyalty [4] Investment Opportunities - It is advisable to invest in Internet-Commerce stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank, including Carvana Co. (CVNA), eBay Inc. (EBAY), Tripadvisor Inc. (TRIP), Chewy Inc. (CHWY), and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) [3][6] - The subscription model for repeat-use items is gaining traction, making it easier for consumers to order and for retailers to manage inventory, with discounts often offered to consumers [5] Company Highlights - **Carvana Co. (CVNA)**: Acquired ADESA's U.S. operations, enhancing logistics and auction capabilities. Expected revenue growth of 23.6% and earnings growth of over 100% for the current year [10][12][11] - **eBay Inc. (EBAY)**: Growth driven by Focus Categories and advertising offerings, with expected revenue growth of 1.7% and earnings growth of 8.4% for the current year [13][14] - **Tripadvisor Inc. (TRIP)**: Benefiting from strong performance in Viator and TheFork segments, with expected revenue growth of 4% and earnings growth of 7.7% for the current year [15][16] - **Chewy Inc. (CHWY)**: Focused on e-commerce for pet products, with expected revenue growth of 4.5% and earnings growth of 18.3% for the current year [17][18] - **Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)**: Performance boosted by monetization of Taobao and Tmall, with expected revenue growth of 4.5% and earnings growth of 24.4% for the current year [19][21][20]