Group 1 - Chewy Inc's stock has been on a downward trend since reaching a two-year high of $48.62 on June 6, but it still shows a strong year-over-year increase of 51.3% [1] - The stock is currently trading close to a historically bullish trendline, indicating a potential rebound [1] - Recent analysis shows that Chewy's stock pullback has brought it within one standard deviation of its 260-day moving average, with the stock being above this trendline in 80% of the past two months [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that after similar pullbacks, Chewy's stock was higher one month later 67% of the time, with an average gain of 6.9% [3] - From its current price of $34.49, a typical rebound could push the stock back above $36 [3] - The options market shows a high put/call volume ratio for Chewy, suggesting a potential sentiment shift that could provide additional support for the stock [7] Group 3 - Chewy's options are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 41%, which is in the 14th percentile of readings from the past year [7]

Core Insights - Chewy Inc. (CHWY) reported a strong performance in Q1 fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 8.3% year over year to $3.12 billion, surpassing guidance due to strong engagement in core categories [1][10] - The Autoship program was a significant growth driver, contributing $2.56 billion in sales, which is 82.2% of total net sales, and showing a year-over-year growth of 14.8% [2][10] - Chewy's active customer base grew to 20.8 million, reflecting a 3.8% increase, driven by effective customer acquisition strategies [2] Segment Performance - The hardgoods segment saw a year-over-year growth of 12.3%, supported by improved customer experience and faster SKU onboarding [1] - Chewy Vet Care expanded to 11 clinics across four states, with strong customer utilization, as about half of first-time customers ordered from Chewy.com within 30 days [3] - The Chewy+ membership program showed promising adoption, leading to a 3.7% increase in net sales per active customer to $583 [4] Financial Guidance and Valuation - Chewy maintained its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance of $12.3 billion to $12.45 billion, indicating a growth of 6-7% when adjusted for the previous year's extra week [5] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.17X, which is below the industry average of 2.17X, indicating potential undervaluation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chewy's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 23.1% and 19.5%, respectively, with recent upward revisions in estimates [12]

Company Performance - Chewy (CHWY) closed at $36.31, down 2.52% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.4% [1] - Prior to the latest trading day, Chewy's shares had decreased by 14.23%, lagging behind the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 4.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.61% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming EPS for Chewy is projected at $0.33, indicating a 37.50% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $3.08 billion, reflecting a 7.83% growth year-over-year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are anticipated to be $1.28 per share, with revenue expected at $12.48 billion, representing increases of 23.08% and 5.21% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates suggest positive sentiment regarding Chewy's business and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Chewy's Forward P/E ratio stands at 29.15, which is higher than the industry average of 23.01 [6] - The PEG ratio for Chewy is currently 3.14, compared to the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 1.68 [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 66, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) and Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) are key players in the pet care industry, each with unique operational models and growth strategies [1] - Chewy focuses on e-commerce and customer engagement, while Central Garden & Pet emphasizes a diversified portfolio and operational efficiency [1] Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) - Chewy reported net sales of $3.12 billion in fiscal Q1 2025, an 8.3% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance [2] - The Autoship program generated $2.56 billion in sales, accounting for 82% of total net sales, with a 14.8% year-over-year growth [3] - Active customer base grew by 3.8% year-over-year to 20.8 million, with net sales per active customer rising 3.7% to $583 [4] - Chewy Vet Care operates 11 clinics and plans to open 8-10 more in fiscal 2025, while the Chewy+ membership program shows early success [5] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q1 was 6.2%, but management expects a decline due to seasonality and increased marketing investments [6] - Marketing expenses reached $193.8 million, or 6.2% of sales, projected to rise to 6.7-6.8% for the year [7] Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) - CENT's adjusted gross margin improved by 200 basis points to 33.3% in Q2, reflecting strong cost management [9][13] - E-commerce accounted for 27% of Pet segment sales, driven by new products and digital strategies [14] - The company opened a 300,000-square-foot distribution center in New Jersey, enhancing fulfillment capabilities [12] - Financially, CENT ended Q2 with $517 million in cash and no borrowings, maintaining a net leverage ratio of 1.7X [15] - The consensus estimate for CENT's fiscal 2025 sales suggests a year-over-year decline of 1.7%, while EPS is expected to grow by 17.8% [20] Comparative Analysis - Chewy's shares gained 1% over the past three months, while CENT's stock rose 19.6%, driven by strong margin expansion and cost execution [21] - Chewy's forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is 1.20, while CENT's is 0.85, indicating a more attractive valuation for CENT [22][23] - Central Garden & Pet is viewed as a better investment due to disciplined cost management and consistent margin expansion, while Chewy faces near-term challenges [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's strategy team highlights 15 stocks with short-term catalytic potential, indicating that S&P 500 index earnings growth in Q2 may exceed expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates a 5% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 Q2 earnings per share and over 4% revenue growth, but actual growth may be stronger [1] - The seven major tech companies are expected to see a 14% increase in net profit, while the remaining 493 constituents may experience a 3% decline [1] - Despite analysts lowering earnings expectations from April to May, the earnings revision has rebounded from -25% to approximately 1%, suggesting Q2 earnings will likely exceed expectations, aligning with the historical average of 4%-5% [1] Recommended Stocks - **argenx SE (ARGX.US)**: undervalued R&D pipeline, target price $700 [2] - **Atlassian (TEAM.US)**: continuous revenue growth potential over 20% and expected margin expansion, target price $320 [3] - **Chewy (CHWY.US)**: benefits from marketing and product optimization, expected revenue to maintain or exceed Q1 levels, target price $50 [4] - **CVS Health (CVS.US)**: advantages from competitor store closures and growth in pharmacy benefit management, target price $80 [4] - **DraftKings (DKNG.US)**: potential earnings inflection point in Q2, with actual licensing rates offsetting tax and regulatory pressures, target price $52 [4] - **Eaton Corporation (ETN.US)**: benefits from improved profit margins in U.S. electrical business, target price $375 [5] - **Eli Lilly (LLY.US)**: core products Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to contribute $8.2 billion in revenue, exceeding expectations may lead to 2025 guidance upgrades, target price $1,135 [5] - **F5 (FFIV.US)**: positive outlook due to demand growth in cloud and load balancing products, target price $305 [6] - **NVIDIA (NVDA.US)**: strong end-user demand and accelerated shipments of rack-level products supporting supply-side growth, target price $170 [7] - **Omada Health (OMDA.US)**: operational leverage through technology empowerment and multi-disease sales, target price $25 [8] - **Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)**: potential stock rebound if internal guidance is met and baggage fee impacts are confirmed as limited, target price $38 [9] - **Valley National Bank (VLY.US)**: expected net interest income growth of 3% quarter-over-quarter, target price $11 [10] - **Western Digital (WDC.US)**: undervalued gross margin expansion prospects, target price $85 [11] Cautious Outlook - **National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA.US)**: cautious due to expected funds from operations (FFO) per share being below market and company guidance, target price $30 [12] - **Teradyne (TER.US)**: revenue and earnings per share forecasts for FY2026 are 7% and 14% below Wall Street expectations, target price $74 [13] Summary - Overall, Morgan Stanley's recommendations combine company fundamentals, industry trends, and market sentiment, providing diversified options for investors [14]

Core Insights - Chewy Inc.'s Hardgoods segment showed significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenues increasing by 12.3% year over year to $342.2 million, surpassing the overall revenue growth of 8.3% [1][10] - The company added over 150 new brands and halved SKU onboarding time, enhancing product selection and market execution speed [2] - Management noted broad-based growth across hardgoods subcategories, driven by improved inventory management, personalized merchandising, and enhanced digital discoverability [3] Sales and Market Position - Chewy's strategy to increase wallet share beyond essential products is evident, with hardgoods showing potential for deeper customer relationships and incremental revenue [4] - The company's hardgoods performance contributed to strengthening market share and resilient growth, maintaining full-year revenue guidance of $12.3–$12.45 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6–7% adjusted for the previous year's extra week [5] - Chewy's net sales outperformed key competitors, including Central Garden & Pet Company and Petco Health and Wellness [6] Competitor Analysis - Central Garden & Pet reported Q2 fiscal 2025 net sales of $833.5 million, down 7.4% year over year, affected by weather delays and product line losses, though e-commerce and Wild Bird segments performed well [7] - Petco Health and Wellness reported Q1 fiscal 2025 net sales of $1.49 billion, down 2.3% year over year due to store closures, with expectations of low single-digit sales decline for 2025 [8] Financial Performance - Chewy's shares have increased by 17% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 9.5% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.26X, below the industry average of 2.17X, with a Value Score of C [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chewy's fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 23.1%, with upward revisions for estimates over the past 60 days [12]

Group 1 - The article compares eBay (EBAY) and Chewy (CHWY) to determine which stock is a better undervalued investment option [1] - eBay has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Chewy has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - Value investors typically analyze various fundamental metrics, including P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share to identify undervalued stocks [4] Group 2 - eBay's forward P/E ratio is 14.44, significantly lower than Chewy's forward P/E of 29.97, suggesting eBay may be undervalued [5] - eBay has a PEG ratio of 1.74, while Chewy's PEG ratio is 3.23, indicating eBay's expected earnings growth is more favorable [5] - eBay's P/B ratio is 7.19 compared to Chewy's 42.32, further supporting eBay's position as a more attractive value option [6] Group 3 - eBay's improving earnings outlook and favorable valuation metrics suggest it is the superior value option compared to Chewy [7]

Core Viewpoint - Chewy Inc. (CHWY) is currently in Phase 8 of its 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle, showing signs that may favor long-term bullish investors as the stock begins to stabilize after previous declines [1][6]. Group 1: Adhishthana Principles - Chewy has consistently adhered to the Adhishthana Principles, a proprietary framework that utilizes cyclical analysis to forecast stock behavior through quantitative signals and behavioral archetypes [2]. - In Phase 3, Chewy experienced a significant decline of over 72%, which was anticipated by the Adhishthana framework, indicating the predictive power of this analysis [4]. Group 2: Current Stock Structure - The stock is currently forming the Adhishthana Cakra on the weekly chart, a structural channel that spans Phases 4 through 8, typically consolidating prior declines and setting up for a breakout in Phase 9 [6]. - Chewy has respected the lower bound of its Cakra, which is a crucial technical condition for a potential bullish breakout as it approaches Phase 9, expected to begin on December 1, 2025 [7]. Group 3: Investor Outlook - Current holders of CHWY are advised to continue holding the stock, as a breakout in Phase 9 could initiate a strong upward trend [9]. - Potential buyers should monitor for dips toward the lower range of the weekly Cakra channel, which may present high-conviction entry points ahead of the anticipated breakout [9].

Core Insights - Chewy's Autoship subscription program is a key driver of customer loyalty and growth, with sales reaching $2.56 billion in Q1 fiscal 2025, a 14.8% increase year over year, significantly outpacing overall revenue growth of 8.3% [1][9] - The share of Autoship in total net sales has risen to 82.2%, the highest in the company's history, indicating its increasing importance [1][4] Customer Engagement - Strong momentum in Autoship was driven by higher enrollment and improved retention of existing subscribers, supported by a broad product assortment and a seamless digital experience [2] - Chewy ended the quarter with 20.8 million active customers, a 3.8% year-over-year increase, with many new customers quickly enrolling in Autoship [3] Financial Performance - Autoship has grown from 66% of net sales at the time of the IPO to over 82% today, reflecting better conversion of new customers and stronger long-term engagement [4] - Chewy's fiscal 2025 sales outlook is projected at $12.3 billion to $12.45 billion, indicating a growth of 6% to 7%, assuming continued strength in Autoship [4] Competitive Landscape - Chewy's net sales have outperformed key competitors like Central Garden & Pet Company and Petco Health and Wellness [5] - Central Garden & Pet reported a 7.4% decline in net sales to $833.5 million, while Petco's net sales decreased by 2.3% to $1.49 billion [6][7] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Chewy's shares have gained 13.4% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 7.6% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.22X, below the industry average of 2.17X, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings indicating a year-over-year growth of 23.1% [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a fundamentals-based approach to value investing, arguing against the misconception that low multiple stocks are inherently cheap, and highlights the importance of long-term growth and a strong balance sheet in investment decisions [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The company seeks to identify firms that provide long-term durability at affordable prices, focusing on steady growth and minimal cyclicality [1]. - There is an acknowledgment of the risks involved in investing in successful companies, particularly the potential to overpay, which underscores the significance of valuation [1]. - The article suggests that in certain scenarios, the potential for growth may outweigh immediate price considerations, indicating a broader perspective on investment timing [1].