Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q2 2025 was $685 million, more than double the result from a year ago, including a recognition of $380 million for the increase in fair value of equity securities still held [9] - Non-GAAP operating income for Q2 was $311 million, up 52% year-over-year [9] - The property casualty combined ratio improved by 3.6 percentage points to 94.9% compared to Q2 last year, despite a one-point increase in catastrophe losses [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial lines grew net written premiums by 9% with a combined ratio of 92.9%, improving by 6.2 percentage points [13] - Personal lines grew net written premiums by 20%, with a combined ratio of 102%, which was 4.9 percentage points better than last year [13] - Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums by 12% with a combined ratio of 91.1%, improving by 4.3 percentage points [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew by 11% for the quarter, including a 16% growth in agency renewal premiums [10] - The average renewal price increases for most lines of business during Q2 were lower than in 2025 but still healthy, with commercial lines averaging near the high end of the mid-single-digit percentage range [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on an agent-centered strategy, balancing profitability and growth while benefiting from a rebalanced investment portfolio [7] - The company is committed to profitable premium growth objectives supported by superior claim service and strong relationships with independent insurance agents [11] - The company has added an additional layer of $300 million on top of its property catastrophe reinsurance program to enhance coverage [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term direction and strategy of the insurance business, despite challenges from California wildfires [7] - The second half of the year is typically more profitable for the personal lines business, with an average improvement of eight points observed over the past five years [8] - Management noted that the underwriting profitability is expected to improve with average price increases and effective risk segmentation [12] Other Important Information - The company reported an 18% growth in investment income, reflecting efforts to rebalance the investment portfolio [16] - Cash flow from operating activities for the first six months of 2025 was $1.1 billion, down $44 million from a year ago due to increased catastrophe losses [18] - The company paid $133 million in dividends to shareholders during 2025, with no shares repurchased during the quarter [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Differences in commercial lines pricing commentary - Management clarified that the pricing for commercial lines has moved to the high end of the mid-single digits, indicating a slight decrease from the first quarter [30] Question: Comfort around recent accident year releases for general liability - Management expressed confidence in the reserving process, noting consistent approaches and favorable reserve development for recent accident years [34][36] Question: Expense ratio guidance - Management indicated that while the expense ratio was better than expected, they aim to maintain it below 30% on an ongoing basis [45] Question: Changes in loss trends - Management reported no significant changes in loss trends during the quarter [68] Question: Growth prospects between property and casualty - Management noted that while the property market is softening, their small to middle market commercial package business continues to see healthy rates [70] Question: Competitive pressures in the property market - Management acknowledged increased competition in the property market but emphasized their disciplined underwriting approach [87][90]

Core Insights - Cincinnati Financial reported Q2 2025 earnings that significantly exceeded analysts' expectations, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.97 compared to a consensus of $1.41, and GAAP revenue of $3.25 billion versus an estimate of $2.53 billion [1][5][12] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS increased by 52.7% year-over-year from $1.29 in Q2 2024 to $1.97 in Q2 2025 [2] - GAAP revenue rose by 28.0% year-over-year from $2.54 billion in Q2 2024 to $3.25 billion in Q2 2025 [2] - Net income (GAAP) more than doubled, increasing 119.6% year-over-year to $685 million [2][5] - Book value per share reached $91.46, an increase of 11.8% from $81.79 in Q2 2024 [2][11] Insurance Metrics - The combined ratio for property and casualty operations improved to 94.9% from 98.5% year-over-year, indicating better underwriting performance [2][6] - Despite improvements, year-to-date combined ratios remain elevated at 103.8%, reflecting ongoing challenges from weather-related events [6] - The property casualty business experienced 11% growth in net written premiums, driven by new agency appointments [6] Segment Performance - Commercial lines insurance recorded net written premiums of $1.29 billion, up 9% from Q2 2024, with a combined ratio improvement to 92.9% [7] - Personal lines business saw a 20% growth in net written premiums but faced a high combined ratio of 102.0% due to catastrophe losses [7] - Excess and surplus lines insurance achieved 12% premium growth with a combined ratio of 91.1% [9] Strategic Focus - Cincinnati Financial's strategy emphasizes strong relationships with independent agencies, diversification of product lines, careful investment management, and maintaining capital strength [3][4] - The company appointed 258 new agency relationships in the first half of 2025, contributing to premium growth [8] Investment Performance - Pre-tax investment income rose 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by a 24% increase in bond interest [11] - The investment portfolio grew to $29.57 billion, with nearly 40% allocated to stocks, contributing to unrealized gains and increased book value per share [11] Future Outlook - Management did not provide specific numeric guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2025 but emphasized a focus on disciplined pricing and underwriting profitability [12] - Investors are advised to monitor trends in catastrophe losses and their impact on personal insurance profitability [13]

Group 1 - Cincinnati Financial (NASDAQ: CINF) has shown strong performance over the past year, with a 17% increase in share value [1] - The company is actively expanding its personal lines business, with positive progress noted in Q2 results [1] - The analyst has over fifteen years of experience in making contrarian investment bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories [1]

Core Insights - Cincinnati Financial reported revenue of $2.78 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a 15.3% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $1.97 compared to $1.29 in the same quarter last year [1] - The reported revenue matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the EPS exceeded expectations by 41.73% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - The combined ratio for Commercial Lines Insurance was 92.9%, significantly better than the average estimate of 99.1% from five analysts [4] - The combined ratio for Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance was 91.1%, outperforming the average estimate of 92.7% [4] - The combined ratio for Personal Lines Insurance was 102%, slightly better than the average estimate of 104.1% [4] - Loss and loss expenses for Commercial Lines Insurance were reported at 63.3%, compared to the average estimate of 68% [4] Revenue Breakdown - Earned premiums for Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance were $174 million, exceeding the average estimate of $171.2 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 15.2% [4] - Total revenues for Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance reached $175 million, compared to the average estimate of $172 million, representing a 15.1% year-over-year change [4] - Earned premiums for Property Casualty Insurance were $2.4 billion, matching the average estimate and showing a 15.5% increase year-over-year [4] - Earned premiums for Personal Lines Insurance were $804 million, surpassing the average estimate of $793.28 million, with a year-over-year increase of 27.4% [4] - Earned premiums for the Life Insurance Subsidiary were $83 million, slightly above the average estimate of $82.31 million, reflecting a 2.5% year-over-year change [4] - Earned premiums for Commercial Lines Insurance were $1.21 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.22 billion, indicating a 9.5% year-over-year increase [4] - Total earned premiums were reported at $2.48 billion, just below the average estimate of $2.49 billion, with a year-over-year change of 15% [4] - Fee revenues for Property Casualty Insurance were $3 million, slightly below the average estimate of $3.2 million, showing no year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Cincinnati Financial's shares returned +2.2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +4.9% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cincinnati Financial (CINF) reported quarterly earnings of $1.97 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39 per share, and showing an increase from $1.29 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +41.73% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $2.78 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.14%, compared to $2.41 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Cincinnati Financial has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Cincinnati Financial shares have increased by approximately 4% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.6% [3] - The current status of estimate revisions translates into a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.62 on revenues of $2.84 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.28 on revenues of $11.14 billion [7] - The outlook for the insurance industry, particularly the Property and Casualty sector, is currently in the top 35% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable environment for stock performance [8]

Part I – Financial Information [Financial Statements (unaudited)](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20(unaudited)) This section presents the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for Cincinnati Financial Corporation as of June 30, 2025, and for the three and six-month periods then ended, prepared in conformity with U.S. GAAP, including balance sheets, statements of income, comprehensive income, shareholders' equity, cash flows, and accompanying notes [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=3&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) Total assets increased to **$38.84 billion** from **$36.50 billion**, driven by investments, while liabilities grew to **$24.54 billion** and shareholders' equity rose to **$14.30 billion** Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (June 30, 2025 vs. Dec 31, 2024) | (Dollars in millions) | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total investments** | $29,569 | $28,378 | | **Total assets** | $38,842 | $36,501 | | **Total liabilities** | $24,541 | $22,566 | | **Total shareholders' equity** | $14,301 | $13,935 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income](index=4&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Income) Net income surged to **$685 million** in Q2 2025 due to investment gains, but decreased to **$595 million** for H1 2025 compared to the prior year, primarily from lower net investment gains Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income (Q2 & H1 2025 vs 2024) | (Dollars in millions, except per share data) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total revenues | $3,248 | $2,544 | $5,814 | $5,479 | | Net Income | $685 | $312 | $595 | $1,067 | | Net income — diluted (per share) | $4.34 | $1.98 | $3.77 | $6.77 | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Net cash provided by operating activities was **$1.05 billion** for H1 2025, with **$614 million** used in investing and **$425 million** in financing, resulting in a **$12 million** increase in cash and equivalents Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $1,051 | $1,095 | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(614) | $(740) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(425) | $(491) | | Net change in cash and cash equivalents | $12 | $(136) | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | $995 | $771 | [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited)](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements%20(unaudited)) This section provides detailed disclosures supporting the condensed consolidated financial statements, covering accounting policies, investment portfolio, fair value measurements, loss reserves, and segment information - The company's investment portfolio is primarily composed of fixed-maturity and equity securities, with fair values of **$17.08 billion** and **$11.65 billion**, respectively, at June 30, 2025[15](index=15&type=chunk) - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company experienced **$154 million** of favorable development on prior accident year property casualty loss reserves[47](index=47&type=chunk) - The company operates in five reporting segments: Commercial lines insurance, Personal lines insurance, Excess and surplus lines insurance, Life insurance, and Investments[89](index=89&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=33&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) This section provides management's perspective on financial condition and operations, covering corporate highlights, segment results, investment performance, liquidity, and the significant impact of catastrophe losses on property and casualty underwriting [Corporate Financial Highlights](index=37&type=section&id=Corporate%20Financial%20Highlights) Net income surged to **$685 million** in Q2 2025 but fell **44%** to **$595 million** for H1 2025 due to lower investment gains and underwriting income, while the value creation ratio decreased to **4.6%** and the quarterly dividend increased to **$0.87** per share Key Financial Highlights (H1 2025 vs H1 2024) | (Dollars in millions, except per share data) | Six months ended June 30, 2025 | Six months ended June 30, 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Earned premiums | $4,824 | $4,227 | 14% | | Net income | $595 | $1,067 | (44%) | | Net income per share—diluted | $3.77 | $6.77 | (44%) | - The value creation ratio, a primary performance metric, decreased to **4.6%** for H1 2025 from **8.2%** in H1 2024, primarily due to reduced net gains from the investment portfolio and an underwriting loss in insurance operations[109](index=109&type=chunk) - The board of directors increased the regular quarterly dividend to **$0.87** per share, setting the stage for the 65th consecutive year of increasing cash dividends[107](index=107&type=chunk) [Financial Results](index=41&type=section&id=Financial%20Results) This section details segment operating results, highlighting a **$170 million** consolidated property and casualty underwriting loss in H1 2025 due to increased catastrophe losses, while Commercial lines remained profitable, Life insurance profit declined, and Investments saw income growth offset by lower gains [Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Highlights](index=41&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Property%20Casualty%20Insurance%20Highlights) P&C operations recorded a **$170 million** underwriting loss in H1 2025, a significant shift from a **$166 million** profit in H1 2024, primarily due to **$904 million** in catastrophe losses, pushing the combined ratio to **103.8%** Consolidated P&C Insurance Results (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Earned premiums | $4,661 | $4,067 | | Underwriting profit (loss) | $(170) | $166 | | Combined ratio | 103.8% | 96.1% | | Catastrophe loss ratio | 18.4% | 8.6% | - The H1 2025 underwriting loss was driven by a **$501 million** increase in current accident year catastrophe losses, mostly from the January 2025 wildfires in southern California[119](index=119&type=chunk) - Net written premiums grew **11%** in H1 2025, driven by a **15%** increase in agency renewal premiums, reflecting continued price increases[128](index=128&type=chunk)[129](index=129&type=chunk) [Commercial Lines Insurance Results](index=47&type=section&id=Commercial%20Lines%20Insurance%20Results) The Commercial Lines segment's underwriting profit grew to **$184 million** in H1 2025, with the combined ratio improving to **92.4%**, driven by premium growth, lower catastrophe losses, and favorable reserve development Commercial Lines Results (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Earned premiums | $2,391 | $2,189 | | Underwriting profit | $184 | $49 | | Combined ratio | 92.4% | 97.9% | - Average renewal price increases in Q2 2025 were in the high-single-digit range for commercial casualty and property, and mid-single-digits for commercial auto[147](index=147&type=chunk) [Personal Lines Insurance Results](index=50&type=section&id=Personal%20Lines%20Insurance%20Results) The Personal Lines segment incurred a **$371 million** underwriting loss in H1 2025, with the combined ratio deteriorating to **124.9%** due to catastrophe losses, despite **17%** growth in net written premiums from rate increases Personal Lines Results (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Earned premiums | $1,502 | $1,219 | | Underwriting loss | $(371) | $(5) | | Combined ratio | 124.9% | 100.6% | | Catastrophe loss ratio | 40.0% | 15.0% | - Reinsurance reinstatement premiums related to the California wildfires negatively impacted the segment by **$64 million** in H1 2025[170](index=170&type=chunk) [Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Results](index=54&type=section&id=Excess%20and%20Surplus%20Lines%20Insurance%20Results) The E&S segment's underwriting profit increased **80%** to **$36 million** in H1 2025, with the combined ratio improving to **89.8%**, driven by **13%** premium growth and favorable reserve development E&S Lines Results (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Earned premiums | $336 | $290 | | Underwriting profit | $36 | $20 | | Combined ratio | 89.8% | 93.7% | - New business written premiums grew **25%** in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024[182](index=182&type=chunk) [Life Insurance Results](index=57&type=section&id=Life%20Insurance%20Results) The Life Insurance segment's profit decreased to **$28 million** in H1 2025 due to actuarial assumption changes, despite a **2%** increase in earned premiums to **$163 million** and a **1%** rise in net in-force policy face amounts to **$85.5 billion** Life Insurance Results (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Earned premiums | $163 | $160 | | Life insurance segment profit | $28 | $32 | [Investments Results](index=58&type=section&id=Investments%20Results) The Investments segment's pretax profit fell **23%** to **$908 million** in H1 2025, as a **16%** increase in investment income was offset by a **46%** decrease in net investment gains, though new fixed-maturity purchases yielded **5.82%** Investments Results (Six months ended June 30) | (Dollars in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total investment income, net of expenses | $565 | $487 | | Investment gains and losses, net | $406 | $749 | | Investments profit, pretax | $908 | $1,174 | - The average pretax yield on new fixed-maturity securities acquired in H1 2025 was **5.82%**, compared to an average yield of **4.98%** on securities expected to mature through 2027[199](index=199&type=chunk)[201](index=201&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=62&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) The company maintained a strong liquidity and capital position with **$14.3 billion** in shareholders' equity and a **5.4%** debt-to-total-capital ratio, supported by positive operating cash flow and ample dividend capacity from its lead insurance subsidiary - The debt-to-total-capital ratio was **5.4%** at June 30, 2025, significantly below the **35%** covenant threshold[225](index=225&type=chunk) - Cash flow from property casualty underwriting was **$506 million** for H1 2025, down from **$723 million** in H1 2024, reflecting higher loss payments[223](index=223&type=chunk) - The company paid **$258 million** in cash dividends to shareholders during the first six months of 2025[234](index=234&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk](index=66&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20about%20Market%20Risk) This section details the company's market risk exposure through its **$28.8 billion** investment portfolio, primarily interest rate risk for fixed maturities and market price risk for equities, with a hypothetical **100 basis point** interest rate increase decreasing fixed-maturity fair value by **5.5%** Investment Portfolio Composition (Fair Value) | (Dollars in millions) | At June 30, 2025 | At December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Taxable fixed maturities | $13,166 | $12,243 | | Tax-exempt fixed maturities | $3,911 | $3,939 | | Common equities | $11,309 | $10,836 | | Nonredeemable preferred equities | $340 | $349 | | Short-term investments | $100 | $298 | | **Total** | **$28,826** | **$27,665** | Interest Rate Sensitivity on Fixed-Maturity Portfolio | (Dollars in millions) | -100 bps | Current Fair Value | +100 bps | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | At June 30, 2025 | $17,985 | $17,077 | $16,093 | - At June 30, 2025, the fixed-maturity portfolio had net unrealized losses of **$458 million**, an improvement from **$553 million** at year-end 2024, primarily due to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields[266](index=266&type=chunk)[274](index=274&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=73&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) The company's CEO and CFO concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025, with no material changes to internal control over financial reporting during Q2 2025 - Management, including the CEO and CFO, concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025[277](index=277&type=chunk) - No changes in internal controls over financial reporting occurred in Q2 2025 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, these controls[277](index=277&type=chunk) Part II – Other Information [Legal Proceedings](index=74&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company reports that neither it nor any of its subsidiaries are involved in any litigation believed to be material, other than ordinary, routine litigation that is incidental to the nature of its business - The company is not involved in any material litigation outside of ordinary course of business[280](index=280&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=74&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) The company's risk factors have not materially changed from its 2024 Form 10-K, though recent international trade policy changes and tariffs could impact inflation, supply chains, loss costs, and premiums - Risk factors have not materially changed from the 2024 Form 10-K[281](index=281&type=chunk) - A recent risk consideration is the impact of international trade policy changes and tariffs on inflation and supply chains, which could affect loss costs and premiums[282](index=282&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=75&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) The company did not sell unregistered equity securities or repurchase shares in Q2 2025, with **5,314,506** shares remaining available for purchase under existing authorization Share Repurchases in Q2 2025 | Period | Total number of shares purchased | Average price paid per share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | April 1-30, 2025 | — | $ — | | May 1-31, 2025 | — | $ — | | June 1-30, 2025 | — | $ — | - As of June 30, 2025, **5,314,506** shares may yet be purchased under the company's repurchase programs[283](index=283&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=76&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) The company discloses that neither the company nor any of its officers or directors adopted or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or a non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during the most recent fiscal quarter - No officer or director adopted or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during the last fiscal quarter[285](index=285&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=77&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section lists the exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including the Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation, certifications by the CEO and CFO pursuant to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, and Interactive Data Files (XBRL) - Filed exhibits include Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation, CEO/CFO certifications (SOX 302 and 906), and XBRL data files[287](index=287&type=chunk)

[Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures](index=3&type=section&id=Definitions%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Information%20and%20Reconciliation%20to%20Comparable%20GAAP%20Measures) [Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures](index=3&type=section&id=Definitions%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Information%20and%20Reconciliation%20to%20Comparable%20GAAP%20Measures) This section defines key non-GAAP financial measures and statutory accounting rules used by management to evaluate business performance and trends - **Non-GAAP operating income** is a key performance metric that excludes after-tax investment gains and losses and other significant non-recurring items from net income[9](index=9&type=chunk) - The **value creation ratio** measures shareholder value creation by combining book value per share growth with dividend yield, reflecting long-term progress[11](index=11&type=chunk) - **Statutory accounting rules**, defined by the NAIC, are used for insurance company regulation and differ from GAAP, providing data for industry comparisons[8](index=8&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) - **Written premium**, a statutory accounting measure, represents the amount recorded for policies issued and is analyzed by management to assess business efforts[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) [Consolidated Statements of Income – Six Months Ended June 30, 2025](index=4&type=section&id=CFC%20and%20Subsidiaries%20Consolidation%20%E2%80%93%20Six%20Months%20Ended%20June%2030%2C%202025) For H1 2025, total revenues reached $5.81 billion, with net income decreasing to $595 million from $1.07 billion year-over-year Consolidated Income Statement Highlights (Six Months Ended June 30) | Indicator (in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Revenues | $5,814 | Not Provided | | Total Expenses | $5,087 | Not Provided | | Income Before Income Taxes | $727 | Not Provided | | Net Income | $595 | $1,067 | [Consolidated Statements of Income – Three Months Ended June 30, 2025](index=5&type=section&id=CFC%20and%20Subsidiaries%20Consolidation%20%E2%80%93%20Three%20Months%20Ended%20June%2030%2C%202025) Q2 2025 saw total revenues of $3.25 billion and net income of $685 million, more than doubling the prior year's $312 million Consolidated Income Statement Highlights (Three Months Ended June 30) | Indicator (in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Revenues | $3,248 | Not Provided | | Total Expenses | $2,393 | Not Provided | | Income Before Income Taxes | $855 | Not Provided | | Net Income | $685 | $312 | [Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Operations](index=7&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Property%20Casualty%20Insurance%20Operations) [Losses Incurred Detail](index=7&type=section&id=Losses%20Incurred%20Detail) Total consolidated losses incurred for H1 2025 increased to $2.94 billion from $2.29 billion, driven by higher catastrophe losses Consolidated Losses Incurred (Six Months Ended June 30, in millions) | Loss Category | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total large losses incurred | $206 | $281 | | Losses incurred but not reported | $601 | $783 | | Other losses excluding catastrophe losses | $1,429 | $1,418 | | Catastrophe losses | $838 | $339 | | **Total losses incurred** | **$2,943** | **$2,291** | [Loss Ratio Detail](index=9&type=section&id=Loss%20Ratio%20Detail) The consolidated total loss ratio rose to 63.1% from 56.3% in H1 2025, primarily due to an increased catastrophe loss ratio Consolidated Loss Ratio Detail (Six Months Ended June 30) | Loss Ratio Component | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total large loss ratio | 4.0% | 2.9% | | Losses incurred but not reported | 10.5% | 10.2% | | Other losses excluding catastrophe losses | 30.6% | 34.9% | | Catastrophe losses | 18.0% | 8.3% | | **Total loss ratio** | **63.1%** | **56.3%** | [Loss Claim Count Detail](index=11&type=section&id=Loss%20Claim%20Count%20Detail) Non-catastrophe large loss claims (over $2 million) increased to 54 in H1 2025 from 40, with Commercial Lines dominating Non-Catastrophe Large Loss Claim Count (Six Months Ended June 30) | Segment | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Commercial Lines | 35 | 26 | | Personal Lines | 19 | 13 | | Excess & Surplus Lines | 0 | 1 | | **Consolidated Total** | **54** | **40** | [Loss and Loss Expense Analysis](index=16&type=section&id=Loss%20and%20Loss%20Expense%20Analysis) This section analyzes gross, ceded, and net loss and loss expense components, including paid losses and reserve changes, for P&C lines [For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025](index=16&type=section&id=Loss%20and%20Loss%20Expense%20Analysis%20%E2%80%93%20Six%20Months%20Ended%20June%2030%2C%202025) Total net loss and loss expense incurred for H1 2025 was $3.47 billion, including $2.25 billion in net paid losses Net Loss and Loss Expense Analysis (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025, in millions) | Component | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net Paid Losses | $2,253 | | Change in Net Case Reserves | $118 | | Change in Net IBNR Reserves | $572 | | Change in Net Loss Expense Reserves | $139 | | **Total Net Loss and Loss Expense Incurred** | **$3,474** | [For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2025](index=19&type=section&id=Loss%20and%20Loss%20Expense%20Analysis%20%E2%80%93%20Three%20Months%20Ended%20June%2030%2C%202025) Q2 2025 net loss and loss expense incurred totaled $1.59 billion, comprising $1.05 billion in net paid losses Net Loss and Loss Expense Analysis (Three Months Ended June 30, 2025, in millions) | Component | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net Paid Losses | $1,049 | | Change in Net Case Reserves | $83 | | Change in Net IBNR Reserves | $183 | | Change in Net Loss Expense Reserves | $75 | | **Total Net Loss and Loss Expense Incurred** | **$1,587** | [Quarterly Property Casualty Data by Segment](index=12&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Property%20Casualty%20Data) [Consolidated](index=21&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Property%20Casualty%20Data%20%E2%80%93%20Consolidated) Consolidated net written premiums grew 11% to $5.23 billion in H1 2025, but the GAAP combined ratio deteriorated to 103.8% Consolidated P&C Performance (Six Months Ended June 30) | Indicator (in millions, except ratios) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Written Premiums | $5,228 | $4,707 | | Earned Premiums | $4,661 | $4,067 | | GAAP Combined Ratio | 103.8% | 96.1% | | Catastrophe Loss Contribution | 18.4% | 8.6% | [Commercial Lines](index=12&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Property%20Casualty%20Data%20%E2%80%93%20Commercial%20Lines) Commercial Lines net written premiums rose 9% to $2.62 billion in H1 2025, with the GAAP combined ratio improving to 92.4% Commercial Lines Performance (Six Months Ended June 30) | Indicator (in millions, except ratios) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Written Premiums | $2,615 | $2,409 | | Earned Premiums | $2,391 | $2,189 | | GAAP Combined Ratio | 92.4% | 97.9% | | Catastrophe Loss Contribution | 5.4% | 7.8% | [Personal Lines](index=14&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Property%20Casualty%20Data%20%E2%80%93%20Personal%20Lines) Personal Lines net written premiums grew 17% to $1.65 billion in H1 2025, but the GAAP combined ratio surged to 124.9% due to catastrophes Personal Lines Performance (Six Months Ended June 30) | Indicator (in millions, except ratios) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Written Premiums | $1,652 | $1,414 | | Earned Premiums | $1,502 | $1,219 | | GAAP Combined Ratio | 124.9% | 100.6% | | Catastrophe Loss Contribution | 40.0% | 15.0% | [Excess & Surplus Lines](index=15&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Property%20Casualty%20Data%20%E2%80%93%20Excess%20%26%20Surplus%20Lines) Excess & Surplus Lines net written premiums grew 13% to $370 million in H1 2025, with the GAAP combined ratio improving to 89.8% Excess & Surplus Lines Performance (Six Months Ended June 30) | Indicator (in millions, except ratios) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Written Premiums | $370 | $326 | | Earned Premiums | $336 | $290 | | GAAP Combined Ratio | 89.8% | 93.7% | | Catastrophe Loss Contribution | 0.9% | 1.2% | [Statutory Statements of Income](index=29&type=section&id=Statutory%20Statements%20of%20Income) [Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies](index=29&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Cincinnati%20Insurance%20Companies%20Statutory%20Statements%20of%20Income) Consolidated statutory net underwriting loss of $258 million in H1 2025 led to a 65% drop in net income to $125 million Statutory Income Highlights (Six Months Ended June 30, in millions) | Indicator | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Premiums Written | $5,055 | $4,558 | 11% | | Net Underwriting Profit (Loss) | $(258) | $52 | nm | | Net Income (Statutory) | $125 | $354 | (65%) | | Policyholders' Surplus | $8,850 | $7,732 | 14% | [The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company](index=30&type=section&id=The%20Cincinnati%20Life%20Insurance%20Company%20Statutory%20Statements%20of%20Income) Cincinnati Life Insurance Company reported a 9% increase in statutory net income to $48 million in H1 2025, with surplus up 21% Statutory Life Insurance Highlights (Six Months Ended June 30, in millions) | Indicator | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Premiums Written | $172 | $179 | (4%) | | Net Investment Income | $100 | $94 | 6% | | Net Income (Statutory) | $48 | $44 | 9% | | Policyholders' Surplus | $556 | $460 | 21% | [Other Quarterly Data](index=31&type=section&id=Other) [Quarterly Data - Other](index=31&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Data%20%E2%80%93%20Other) This section presents H1 2025 data for Cincinnati Re, Cincinnati Global, and noninsurance operations, detailing premiums and loss ratios Cincinnati Re Performance (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025) | Indicator (in millions, except ratios) | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net Written Premiums | $418 | | Earned Premiums | $303 | | Total Loss and Loss Expense Ratio | 84.5% | Cincinnati Global Performance (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025) | Indicator (in millions, except ratios) | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net Written Premiums | $173 | | Earned Premiums | $129 | | Total Loss and Loss Expense Ratio | 48.4% | - Noninsurance operations, including the parent company and CFC Investment Company, incurred a total loss of **$39 million** for the first six months of 2025[69](index=69&type=chunk)[72](index=72&type=chunk)

Financial Performance Highlights - Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported total revenues of $3,248 million for the second quarter of 2025, a 28% increase from $2,544 million in the same period of 2024 [2] - Net income for the second quarter of 2025 was $685 million, or $4.34 per share, compared to $312 million, or $1.98 per share, in the second quarter of 2024, marking a 120% increase [2][8] - Non-GAAP operating income for the second quarter of 2025 was $311 million, or $1.97 per share, up 52% from $204 million, or $1.29 per share, in the second quarter of 2024 [2][8] - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.87 per share, a 7% increase from $0.81 per share in the second quarter of 2024 [2] Insurance Operations Highlights - The property casualty combined ratio improved to 94.9% in the second quarter of 2025, down from 98.5% in the same quarter of 2024 [6][9] - Property casualty net written premiums grew by 11% in both the second quarter and the first half of 2025, surpassing $5 billion for the first time in the first six months [7][14] - The company experienced a 20% growth in personal lines net written premiums in the second quarter of 2025, driven by higher agency renewal premiums [20] Investment Performance Highlights - Pretax investment income for the second quarter of 2025 rose 18% to $285 million, driven by a 24% increase in bond interest income [7][23] - Total investment income after-tax for the second quarter was $236 million, a 17% increase from $202 million in the same quarter of 2024 [23] - The fair value of total investments increased by 4% to $30.564 billion at June 30, 2025, compared to $29.361 billion at year-end 2024 [32] Balance Sheet Highlights - The book value per share reached a record high of $91.46 at June 30, 2025, up 2.6% from $89.11 at year-end 2024 [27][32] - Total assets increased to $38,842 million at June 30, 2025, compared to $36,501 million at December 31, 2024 [27] - Shareholders' equity rose to $14,301 million at June 30, 2025, up from $13,935 million at year-end 2024 [27]

Core Insights - Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) is anticipated to show revenue growth but a decline in net income for Q2 2025, with revenues expected to reach $2.9 billion, reflecting a 15.5% increase year-over-year [1][10] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.37, indicating a 6.2% year-over-year increase [2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF's second-quarter revenues is $2.9 billion, up 15.5% from the previous year [1][10] - The earnings per share estimate has increased by 1 cent in the past week, with a consensus of $1.37 [2] Earnings Prediction Model - CINF is predicted to beat earnings expectations due to a positive Earnings ESP of +3.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][4] Factors Influencing Q2 Results - Increased exposure, better pricing, and higher premiums from Cincinnati Re are expected to positively impact earned premiums, estimated at $2.5 billion, a 15.2% increase from last year [5] - Personal Lines revenues are projected at $794 million, benefiting from higher policy retention rates and changes in policy deductibles [6] - Excess and Surplus lines revenues are expected to reach $172 million, driven by improved agency renewal and new business premiums [7] - Investment income is anticipated to be $269.6 million, an 11.4% increase year-over-year [8] Expense and Profitability Outlook - Total expenses are expected to rise by 14.3% to $2.5 billion, influenced by higher insurance losses and operating expenses [9] - The combined ratio is estimated to improve to 97.3, reflecting a 120 basis point enhancement year-over-year, aided by a benign catastrophe environment [9][10]

Core Insights - Analysts project Cincinnati Financial (CINF) will report quarterly earnings of $1.37 per share, a 6.2% increase year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.78 billion, reflecting a 15.4% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [1][2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts forecast 'Investment income, net of expenses- Total' to reach $278.79 million, a 15.2% year-over-year increase [4] - 'Revenue- Excess and surplus lines insurance- Earned premiums' is expected to be $171.20 million, indicating a 13.4% year-over-year change [4] - 'Revenues- Personal Lines Insurance- Earned premiums' is projected at $793.28 million, reflecting a 25.7% increase year over year [4] Insurance Metrics - 'Revenues- Life Insurance Subsidiary- Earned premiums' is estimated at $82.31 million, a 1.6% increase from the prior-year quarter [5] - The 'Excess and surplus lines insurance - Combined ratio' is expected to be 92.7%, down from 95.4% a year ago [5] - 'Personal Lines Insurance - Combined ratio' is projected at 104.1%, compared to 106.9% in the previous year [5] Loss and Expense Estimates - 'Commercial Lines Insurance - Loss and loss expenses' is expected to be 68.0%, up from 67.4% in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Excess and surplus lines insurance - Loss and loss expenses' is projected at 65.5%, compared to 67.5% in the previous year [6] - 'Personal Lines Insurance - Loss and loss expenses' is estimated at 74.4%, down from 77.6% a year ago [7] Underwriting Expenses - 'Excess and surplus lines insurance - Underwriting expenses' is projected to be 27.1%, down from 27.9% in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Personal Lines Insurance - Underwriting expenses' is expected to be 29.7%, slightly up from 29.3% in the previous year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Cincinnati Financial have returned +2.9%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.9% change [8]