Core Insights - The Big Beautiful Bill Act (BBBA) is projected to cut $1 trillion from Medicaid, which constitutes 62% of Centene's 2024 revenue [2][4] - Centene's stock experienced a 40% decline following the withdrawal of its 2025 revenue guidance due to an independent actuary's report indicating overly optimistic revenue assumptions [2][3] - S&P Global Ratings is contemplating downgrading Centene's credit rating to junk status, which could increase the company's cost of capital [4][14] Financial Performance - Centene's revenue from Medicaid was $101.4 billion, representing 62% of total revenue for 2024, while Medicare contributed 14% and the Commercial Marketplace business unit accounted for 21% [7] - In Q1 2025, Centene reported a 15.4% increase in revenue to $46.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [16] - The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 was $2.90, which was 22.9% higher than consensus estimates [16] Market Impact - The BBBA's Medicaid cuts could reduce Centene's revenue growth rate by one percentage point annually over the next five years, from 5% to 4% [13] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the potential for Centene's EPS forecast to be significantly lowered, with estimates suggesting a possible reduction of $2.75 [11][12] - Despite the negative outlook, some analysts believe Centene is significantly undervalued, with a 12-month price target averaging $63.08, indicating a potential upside of nearly 91% [20] Strategic Concerns - The withdrawal of revenue guidance has raised questions about Centene's future profitability and capital adequacy, leading to increased scrutiny from credit rating agencies [15] - The company faces challenges in offsetting potential revenue losses from Medicaid cuts with other business lines [8] - The healthcare sector, particularly managed care, is viewed as increasingly risky by some analysts, with concerns that conditions may worsen before improving [19]

Stock Performance - Centene 股票下跌 40% [1] Potential Risks - Medicaid 削减 1 万亿美元可能导致股价下跌 [1]

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against Centene Corporation for allegedly providing misleading statements regarding its enrollment and morbidity rates, leading to a significant drop in stock price after the company withdrew its 2025 guidance [3][4]. Company Overview - Centene Corporation is facing legal action for allegedly disseminating materially false and misleading statements about its business performance during the period from December 12, 2024, to June 30, 2025 [1]. - The lawsuit claims that Centene's positive public statements were contradicted by the actual lower-than-expected market growth across 22 states, which constitutes 72% of the company's marketplace membership [3]. Financial Impact - Following the announcement of the withdrawal of 2025 guidance, Centene's stock price plummeted from $56.65 per share on July 1, 2025, to $33.78 per share on July 2, 2025, marking a decline of 40.4% [4]. - The company revised its guidance to approximately $1.8 billion, with an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.75, indicating a significant downward adjustment in expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against Centene Corporation, alleging that the company misled investors about its business prospects and financial outlook during the specified period [1][2]. Allegations - The complaint claims that Centene's management created a false impression of having reliable information regarding projected revenue and growth, while actual enrollment rates and morbidity were lower than expected [2]. - A preliminary analysis indicated that over two-thirds of Centene's marketplace share showed disappointing enrollment figures and increased morbidity, contradicting the company's optimistic reports [2]. Financial Impact - On July 1, 2025, Centene withdrew its 2025 guidance, revealing that its overall market growth across 22 states was lower than anticipated, leading to a revised guidance of approximately $1.8 billion and an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.75 [3]. - Following this announcement, Centene's stock price plummeted from $56.65 per share to $44.78 per share on July 2, 2025, marking a decline of over 40% [3].

Core Insights - Molina Healthcare, Inc. has reduced its full-year 2025 earnings guidance by 10.2% at mid-point due to rising medical costs and unpredictable utilization trends, following Centene Corporation's withdrawal of its financial outlook [1][3][10] Group 1: Earnings Guidance and Financial Outlook - For Q2 2025, Molina expects adjusted earnings of approximately $5.50 per share, which is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.12 per share and represents a 6.1% decline year-over-year [4] - The full-year adjusted earnings per share is now projected to be between $21.50 and $22.50, a significant drop from the previous forecast of at least $24.50 and below last year's figure of $22.65 [4][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina's 2025 revenue stands at $44.1 billion, indicating an 8.4% increase from the prior year, suggesting robust demand despite cost pressures [5] Group 2: Industry Context and Comparisons - Molina is part of a trend among health insurers facing unexpected cost pressures, with UnitedHealth Group and Centene also having withdrawn their earnings guidance [3][10] - Molina's shares have declined by 31.6% over the past three months, while the industry has dropped 38.9%, with UnitedHealth and Centene experiencing even steeper losses of 47.5% and 47.3%, respectively [9][10] Group 3: Long-term Outlook and Valuation - Despite the current challenges, Molina's long-term strategic outlook remains unchanged, with the CEO expressing confidence in the company's fundamentals [8] - Molina trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.85, which is lower than the industry average of 11.66, and currently holds a Value Score of A [13]

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the ...

Core Viewpoint - Centene experienced a significant drop in stock price, closing down over 40% on July 2, resulting in a loss of over $11 billion in market capitalization, with competitors also facing declines [1][2][5] Group 1: Financial Impact - The drop in Centene's shares was primarily due to the withdrawal of its 2025 full-year guidance, indicating a more challenging financial outlook [2][4] - The company received data indicating lower growth in the ACA exchange market and higher morbidity among enrollees, leading to fewer and sicker patients [3][4] - The expected impact on Centene's 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) is a reduction of $2.75, which is 38% of the previously expected EPS of greater than $7.25 [4][5] Group 2: Market Valuation - Despite the significant stock sell-off, Wall Street analysts see a more attractive valuation for Centene, with a 12-month price target of $68.87, implying a potential upside of 108.31% from the current price [5][6] - The average price target post-guidance withdrawal is $51, suggesting a 53% upside, which is higher than the 32% average upside prior to the drop [6][7] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The recent legislation signed into law includes $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which accounted for approximately 46% of Centene's revenue last quarter, potentially leading to 10.3 million to 11.8 million fewer Medicaid recipients over the next decade [8][9] - The reduction in expected Medicaid users could have a more significant and lasting impact on Centene compared to the ACA exchange enrollment issues, which only made up 20% of the firm's total revenue last quarter [9]

Core Viewpoint - Centene Corporation is under investigation for potential violations of federal securities laws due to allegations of providing misleading business information, which has led to significant stock price decline following the withdrawal of its earnings guidance [1][4]. Company Overview - Centene is a managed healthcare company that specializes in government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid and Medicare, as well as health insurance plans on individual exchanges and commercial marketplaces [3]. Alleged Wrongdoing - On July 1, 2025, Centene announced its decision to withdraw its 2025 earnings guidance, citing declining market growth in 22 out of the 29 states it operates in. The company indicated that health risks in these states were much higher than previously anticipated in its risk adjustment calculations [4]. - Following this announcement, Centene's stock price dropped by $22.87 per share, representing a 40.37% decline, closing at $33.78 per share on July 2, 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Centene Corporation is facing potential legal claims regarding violations of federal securities laws and unlawful business practices following a significant drop in stock price after withdrawing its 2025 earnings guidance [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - On July 2, 2025, Centene's stock price fell over 39.5% during intraday trading after the company announced the withdrawal of its 2025 earnings guidance due to higher-than-expected costs related to Medicaid enrollees and underperformance in its Affordable Care Act plans [2]. - The company indicated that its Medicaid business has seen an increase in medical cost trends in areas such as behavioral health, home health, and high-cost drugs [2]. Group 2: Legal Investigation - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims against Centene on behalf of its stockholders, focusing on whether the company has violated federal securities laws [1]. - The law firm is reaching out to long-term stockholders who may have suffered losses or have information regarding these claims [3].

NEW YORK, July 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Centene Corporation ("Centene" or the "Company") (NYSE: CNC). Such investors are advised to contact Danielle Peyton at [email protected] or 646-581-9980, ext. 7980.  The investigation concerns whether Centene and certain of its officers and/or directors have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices. [Click here for information about joining the class action]On July 1, 2025, Centene ...