SAN FRANCISCO, July 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- On July 2, 2025, investors in Centene Corp. (NYSE: CNC) saw the price of their shares of this normally low-volatility stock crash 40%, after the company withdrew its guidance, blaming preliminary discussions and data generated by an independent actuary, Wakely.The unusual circumstances and severe investor reaction has prompted national shareholders rights firm Hagens Berman to open an investigation into whether Centene may have violated the securities laws. The fi ...

Core Viewpoint - Centene Corporation is facing an investigation regarding potential securities fraud and unlawful business practices following its withdrawal of earnings guidance due to disappointing market growth and higher-than-expected health risks [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - On July 1, 2025, Centene announced the withdrawal of its 2025 GAAP and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) guidance, citing that market growth in 22 out of 29 states was not meeting expectations [3]. - The company indicated that the overall health risks in these states were significantly higher than anticipated, impacting its risk adjustment revenue calculations [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Centene's stock price experienced a significant decline, falling by $22.87 per share, or 40.37%, closing at $33.78 per share on July 2, 2025 [4]. Group 3: Legal Investigation - Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims on behalf of Centene investors regarding possible securities fraud or other unlawful business practices by the company and its officers or directors [1].

Core Insights - Centene Corporation experienced a significant stock decline of nearly 40% on July 2 after withdrawing its full-year guidance, attributing the drop to challenges in its Medicaid and Affordable Care Act (ACA) businesses [1][8] - The company's stock closed at $33.31, marking a 38% decrease over the past week [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Legislative Context - Four U.S. House members sold Centene shares between May 12 and May 30, prior to the company's warning and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which cuts Medicaid funding by $1 trillion over the next decade [3][4] - The OBBBA, passed on July 3, imposes stricter Medicaid work requirements and eligibility checks, potentially removing 10 to 12 million Americans from coverage by 2034 [8] - The timing of congressional stock trades has raised concerns about potential insider trading, given the direct impact of legislation on Centene [9] Group 2: Financial Impact and Market Conditions - Centene disclosed that enrollment and cost trends would reduce earnings by $2.75 per share [8] - The company is facing challenges as healthier enrollees are dropping coverage following the rollback of pandemic-era benefits, resulting in fewer, higher-cost members and squeezing earnings [9] - Critics of the OBBBA warn that it could severely impact low-income families and rural healthcare providers, while supporters argue it will help reduce fraud and abuse [8]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is facing significant challenges due to the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which is expected to reduce federal Medicaid spending and lead to approximately 11.8 million Americans losing Medicaid coverage by 2034 [1][2] - The bill limits the use of "provider taxes" to curb state-level Medicaid expenditures but allocates $50 billion to support rural hospitals affected by these cuts [2] - UnitedHealth's Medicaid membership has declined by 4% in 2023, 5.2% in 2024, and 1.4% in Q1 2025, while its Medicare Advantage enrollment has increased by 8.3% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024, and 6.3% in Q1 2025 [3][8] Medicaid and Medicare Trends - The proposed elimination of ACA marketplace tax credits may push more individuals into employer-sponsored plans, while Medicare Advantage could see increased enrollment as seniors face higher out-of-pocket expenses [3] - Centene Corporation (CNC), a major player in Medicaid, withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance due to unexpected enrollment shifts and rising medical costs, causing significant declines in its shares and impacting peers like UnitedHealth and Humana [4][5] Market Performance - Following Centene's announcement, its shares dropped by 41.2%, while UnitedHealth and Humana experienced declines of 5.4% and 5.1%, respectively, despite overall market gains [5][8] - UnitedHealth's forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 12.99, above the industry average of 11.49, and it holds a Value Score of A [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealth's 2025 earnings is projected at $22.07 per share, indicating a 20.2% decrease from the previous year [10]

Core Viewpoint - Centene Corp. experienced a significant 40% drop in share price after withdrawing its revenue guidance due to unexpected data from an independent actuary, raising concerns about potential violations of securities laws [1][5][9]. Company Overview - Centene Corp. positions itself as a leading healthcare enterprise, focusing on providing integrated services to government-sponsored and commercial healthcare programs, particularly for under-insured and uninsured individuals [3]. Financial Guidance and Adjustments - On April 25, 2025, Centene had increased its 2025 revenue guidance by $6 billion and reaffirmed its GAAP diluted EPS guidance floor of over $6.19 and adjusted diluted EPS guidance floor of over $7.25 [4]. - On July 1, 2025, Centene withdrew its previous guidance, citing new information regarding Health Insurance Marketplace data [5]. Market Data Analysis - The company analyzed initial 2025 industry Marketplace data from Wakely, covering 22 states, which represented approximately 72% of its Marketplace membership [6]. - The analysis revealed lower-than-expected overall market growth and higher-than-anticipated market morbidity, leading to a reduction in the expected net risk adjustment revenue transfer by approximately $1.8 billion, impacting adjusted diluted EPS by about $2.75 [7][8]. Investor Reaction - Following the announcement of the guidance withdrawal and the negative data, Centene's share price fell by 40%, equating to a loss of $22.87 per share in a single day [9].

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Centene shares plummeted Wednesday after the managed-care company withdrew its full-year outlook after receiving new data about enrollments and rising member health costs. Monitor these major support and resistance levels. https://t.co/goEsoharb3 ...

Core Insights - The Conservative Income Portfolio aims to target value stocks with high margins of safety while reducing volatility through well-priced options [1][3] - The Enhanced Equity Income Solutions Portfolio is designed to generate yields of 7-9% while minimizing volatility [1] - Centene Inc. (NYSE: CNC) has not performed well for "buy and hold" investors since the last analysis in 2021 [1] Investment Strategies - The Covered Calls Portfolio focuses on lower volatility income investing with an emphasis on capital preservation [2][3] - The fixed income portfolio seeks to acquire securities that offer high income potential and are significantly undervalued compared to peers [2][3] - Trapping Value, with over 40 years of combined experience, emphasizes options income generation while prioritizing capital preservation [3]

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Key Takeaways CNC withdrew its 2025 guidance due to higher-than-expected market morbidity and slowing growth. An expected $1.8B drop in risk adjustment revenue may cut 2025 EPS by approximately $2.75. CNC plans 2026 rate hikes to offset losses, signaling a more defensive pricing strategy ahead.A leading healthcare company, Centene Corporation (CNC) , has unexpectedly pulled its earnings guidance for 2025, shaking up the managed care industry. This change comes after an unexpected shift in the dynamics of ...