Shares of ConnectOne Bancorp ( CNOB ) have been a moderate performer over the past year, gaining about 6%. During 2025, CNOB completed its acquisition of First of Long Island, expanding it past $10 billion of assets and enhancing its low-costOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a question for an article, just let me ...

ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) reported $112.62 million in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 64.5%. EPS of $0.83 for the same period compares to $0.52 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $116.7 million, representing a surprise of -3.5%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +12.93%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.74.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earni ...

CFO Bill Burns said results were “highlighted by improving net interest margin and performance ratios,” along with robust loan originations, core client deposit growth, reduced wholesale deposits, and “clean asset quality.” Burns also pointed to capital strengthening and tangible book value accretion.Sorrentino emphasized deposit gathering as a competitive advantage, saying client deposits increased by approximately 5% on an annualized basis during the second half of 2025, driven by relationship inflows and ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ConnectOne Bancorp ended 2025 with $14 billion in assets and a market cap exceeding $1.4 billion, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed the $10 billion asset threshold [4] - The operating earnings for the current quarter represented an 18.6% increase sequentially over the third quarter, driving the quarterly operating return on assets to 1.24% and return on tangible common equity to 14.3% [10][16] - The tangible common equity ratio increased to 8.62 as of year-end, with expectations to reach 9% [16][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client deposits increased by approximately 5% on an annualized basis in the second half of 2025, reflecting strong relationship inflows and a reduction in broker deposits [6] - The loan portfolio grew by an annualized 5%, driven by strong originations, although offset by elevated payoffs due to higher refinancing rates [7] - The percentage of non-interest-bearing demand deposits increased from 17% to over 21%, while brokerage deposits declined from 12% to 6% of total assets [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's net interest margin widened significantly over the past quarter and year, with expectations for continued positive trajectory throughout 2026 [7] - The company anticipates a modest loan portfolio increase in the 3%-5% range due to expected higher payoffs [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConnectOne is focused on maintaining a client-first culture and executing a disciplined approach to balance sheet management, prioritizing optimization and sustainable moderate growth [17] - The company plans to consolidate five branch locations as part of its branch rationalization efforts, while also anticipating modest staffing growth to drive improved revenue and operating synergies [8][12] - The management emphasizes the importance of technology and operational efficiencies, including the integration of AI to enhance productivity and service delivery [70][71] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges competitive pressures, political developments, and broader market sentiment as ongoing challenges, but expresses confidence in the company's ability to navigate these hurdles [8] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for margin expansion, improved operating efficiencies, and increased non-interest income, despite potential pressures on loan growth [10][14] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate was adjusted downward to 26% for the quarter, with a projected go-forward rate of 28% [15] - The company is well-positioned for opportunistic M&A, with a focus on maintaining financial discipline and evaluating potential transactions based on strategic fit rather than size alone [24][77] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak about the capital stack and preferred redemption? - Management focuses on tangible common equity and aims to reach a ratio of 9%, which would enable dividend increases and stock buybacks [22] Question: Is M&A more likely in 2026? - M&A activity is heating up, but decisions will depend on financial discipline and the value of potential transactions compared to stock buybacks [23][24] Question: What is the outlook for loan growth and deposit competition? - Management anticipates that deposit growth may exceed loan growth due to slower loan growth guidance from payoffs, but expects overall growth to be about equal [54] Question: What is the size and composition of the loan pipeline? - The loan pipeline is approximately $600 million with an average weighted rate of 6.2%, consisting of a mix similar to the current loan composition [41][42] Question: What is the expected provision for loan losses? - The expected provision for loan losses is projected to be in the range of $5-$6 million per quarter, considering the current credit environment [46] Question: How is technology being utilized for operational efficiencies? - The company has incorporated leading technologies, including AI, to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs, while maintaining a focus on client relationships [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConnectOne Bancorp demonstrated strong performance with $14 billion in assets and a market cap exceeding $1.4 billion, marking a significant transition beyond the $10 billion asset threshold [4] - The operating earnings for the current quarter increased by 18.6% sequentially over the third quarter, with a quarterly operating return on assets reaching 1.24% and a return on tangible common equity of 14.3% [10] - The net interest margin widened significantly, with expectations for continued positive trajectory throughout 2026 [7][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client deposits increased by approximately 5% on an annualized basis in the second half of 2025, reflecting strong relationship inflows and a reduction in broker deposits [6] - The loan portfolio also grew by an annualized 5%, driven by strong originations, although offset by elevated payoffs due to higher refinancing rates [7] - The percentage of non-interest-bearing demand deposits increased from 17% to over 21%, while brokerage deposits declined from 12% to 6% of total assets [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's performance metrics improved significantly, with a focus on building strong capital and driving efficiency [7] - The Long Island market showed early gains in deposits post-acquisition, indicating potential for further growth in that region [44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConnectOne is focused on maintaining a client-first culture and executing a disciplined approach to balance sheet management, prioritizing optimization and sustainable moderate growth [17] - The company plans to consolidate five branch locations as part of its branch rationalization efforts, while also anticipating modest staffing growth to drive improved revenue and operating synergies [8][12] - The management is committed to leveraging technology, including AI, to enhance operational efficiencies and maintain a competitive edge in the market [70][74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged competitive pressures, political developments, and broader market sentiment as ongoing challenges, but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate these hurdles [8] - The guidance for net interest margin includes expectations for gradual improvements, with potential rate cuts factored into projections [11][82] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on client-driven opportunities in key markets, with a focus on delivering sustainable value to stakeholders [8][17] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate was adjusted downward to 26% for the quarter, with expectations for a go-forward rate of 28% [15] - The tangible common equity ratio increased to 8.62 as of year-end, providing flexibility for dividend increases and opportunistic stock repurchases [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak about the capital stack and optimal positioning? - Management emphasized a focus on tangible common equity, aiming to reach a ratio of 9% to enable dividend increases and stock buybacks [22] Question: Is M&A activity expected to increase in 2026? - Management noted that M&A activity is heating up, but decisions will be based on financial discipline and the value of potential transactions [23][24] Question: What is the outlook for loan growth versus deposit growth? - Management indicated that deposit growth may exceed loan growth due to slower loan growth guidance from payoffs [54] Question: Can you provide details on the loan pipeline? - The loan pipeline is approximately $600 million with an average weighted rate of 6.2%, reflecting a mix similar to the current loan composition [41][42] Question: What is the expected provision for loan losses? - Management projected provisions in the range of $5-$6 million per quarter, considering various factors affecting credit quality [46] Question: How is technology being utilized for operational efficiencies? - Management highlighted the integration of AI and other technologies to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs, maintaining a focus on operational leverage [70][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ConnectOne Bancorp ended 2025 with $14 billion in assets and a market cap exceeding $1.4 billion, marking a significant transition beyond the $10 billion asset threshold [4] - The bank's net interest margin widened significantly over the past quarter and year, with operating earnings for the current quarter representing an 18.6% increase sequentially over the third quarter [9][10] - The tangible common equity ratio increased to 8.62 as of year-end, with expectations to reach 9% [15][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client deposits increased by approximately 5% on an annualized basis during the second half of 2025, reflecting strong relationship inflows and a reduction in broker deposits [5] - The loan portfolio grew by an annualized 5%, driven by strong originations, although offset by elevated payoffs due to higher refinancing rates [6][12] - The percentage of non-interest-bearing demand deposits increased from 17% to over 21%, while brokerage deposits declined from 12% to 6% of total assets [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's performance metrics improved significantly, with a quarterly operating return on assets rising to 1.24% and a return on tangible common equity reaching 14.3% [9] - The bank anticipates modest loan portfolio growth in the 3%-5% range due to expected higher payoffs [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConnectOne Bancorp is focused on maintaining a client-first culture and optimizing its balance sheet while leveraging its size and scale for sustainable growth [16] - The company plans to consolidate five branch locations as part of its branch rationalization efforts, aiming for improved revenue and operating synergies [7][11] - The management emphasizes a disciplined approach to M&A, focusing on opportunities within the New York Metro market [78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management recognizes competitive pressures, political developments, and broader market sentiment as ongoing challenges but remains committed to executing its long-term vision [7] - The bank expects to continue seeing margin expansion and improved operating efficiencies, with a focus on generating profitable growth [9][10] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate was adjusted downward to 26% for the quarter, with expectations of a go-forward rate of 28% [14] - The bank recorded a relatively low provision for loan losses this quarter, with a slight increase in the non-performing asset ratio to 0.33 from 0.28 [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital stack and preferred redemption - Management focuses on tangible common equity and aims to reach a ratio of 9% to enable dividend increases and stock buybacks [22] Question: M&A likelihood in 2026 - M&A activity is increasing, but decisions will depend on financial discipline and the value of potential transactions [23][24] Question: Cash balances and loan deployment - The bank will continue to transition cash into loan balances, expecting higher growth in loans than in assets [25] Question: Expense outlook and branch rationalization timing - Branch closures will occur at the end of Q1, with staff changes expected mid-year, leading to a sequential increase in expenses [32] Question: Deposit competition and rising costs - Competition for deposits has intensified, but the bank is prepared to adjust rates as necessary [35] Question: Loan pipeline size and average rate - The loan pipeline is approximately $600 million with an average weighted rate of 6.2% [43] Question: Loan growth outlook and payoffs - Loan growth is expected to be modest due to competitive pressures and higher payoffs [67] Question: Use of new technologies and AI - The bank is leveraging AI and technology to improve operational efficiencies and reduce labor costs [71][73] Question: M&A market and potential targets - The focus remains on the New York Metro market, with flexibility to consider compelling opportunities outside this area [78]

分组1 - ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) reported quarterly earnings of $0.83 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.74 per share, and showing an increase from $0.52 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +12.93% [1] - The company posted revenues of $112.62 million for the quarter ended December 2025, which was 3.5% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and an increase from $68.46 million year-over-year [2] - ConnectOne has surpassed consensus EPS estimates for the last four quarters but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has gained approximately 6.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.76 on revenues of $119.5 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.26 on revenues of $492.9 million [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Banks - Northeast is in the top 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Financial Performance - Net income available to common stockholders for Q4 2025 was $38.0 million, down from $39.5 million in Q3 2025, but up from $18.9 million in Q4 2024[2]. - Diluted earnings per share for Q4 2025 were $0.75, compared to $0.78 in Q3 2025 and $0.49 in Q4 2024[2]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $80,443 thousand, compared to $73,793 thousand in 2024, indicating an increase of about 9%[25]. - Basic earnings per common share increased to $1.64 for the year ended December 31, 2025, from $1.77 in 2024, showing a decrease of approximately 7.3%[25]. - Operating net income for Q4 2025 was $43,531,000, an increase from $37,018,000 in Q3 2025, representing a growth of 17.0%[30]. Asset and Deposit Growth - Total assets increased to $14.0 billion as of December 31, 2025, compared to $9.9 billion a year earlier, primarily due to the merger with FLIC[16]. - Total assets as of December 31, 2025, were $14,002,700, a slight decrease from $14,023,585 as of September 30, 2025[27]. - Total deposits reached $11,240,615 thousand in 2025, up from $7,820,114 thousand in 2024, representing an increase of about 43.5%[24]. - Total deposits decreased to $11,240,615 as of December 31, 2025, from $11,369,295 as of September 30, 2025, a decline of 1.14%[27]. Loan and Credit Quality - Loans and client deposits grew sequentially by more than 5% annualized, excluding a reduction of over $280 million in brokered deposits[5]. - Nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets were 0.33% as of December 31, 2025, down from 0.58% a year earlier[14]. - The allowance for credit losses increased to $154.3 million as of December 31, 2025, reflecting the FLIC merger[15]. - Provision for credit losses decreased to $47,000 thousand in 2025 from $13,800 thousand in 2024, indicating a reduction of about 65.5%[25]. - Net loan charge-offs for the quarter were $4,777 thousand, a decrease from $5,136 thousand in the prior quarter[32]. Interest Income and Margin - Net interest margin widened by 16 basis points to 3.27% in Q4 2025, benefiting from a 4.5% increase in fully taxable equivalent net interest income to $107.8 million[8]. - Interest income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $644,868 thousand, up from $517,889 thousand in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 24.5%[25]. - Net interest income for Q4 2025 was $106,595,000, an increase from $102,017,000 in Q3 2025, representing a growth of 5.6%[28]. - Net interest margin improved to 3.27% in Q4 2025 from 3.11% in Q3 2025, indicating better asset utilization[30]. Noninterest Income and Expenses - Noninterest income for Q4 2025 was $6.0 million, significantly lower than $19.4 million in Q3 2025, primarily due to nonrecurring items in the previous quarter[10]. - Noninterest income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $35,065 thousand, compared to $16,728 thousand in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 109%[25]. - Total noninterest income dropped significantly to $6,020,000 in Q4 2025 from $19,409,000 in Q3 2025, a decline of 69.0%[28]. - Total noninterest expenses decreased to $56,946,000 in Q4 2025 from $58,673,000 in Q3 2025, a reduction of 2.9%[30]. Dividends and Tax Rate - The Company declared a cash dividend of $0.18 per share on common stock, payable on March 2, 2026[7]. - The effective tax rate for Q4 2025 was 26.0%, with an estimated rate of approximately 28.0% for 2026[12]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to continue focusing on expanding its fintech subsidiary, BoeFly, Inc., to enhance its service offerings in the franchise space[21]. - ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP financial measures to provide additional insights into its operating performance[26].

Core Insights - ConnectOne Bancorp reported a net income of $38.0 million for Q4 2025, a decrease from $39.5 million in Q3 2025 but an increase from $18.9 million in Q4 2024. Diluted earnings per share were $0.75 for Q4 2025, down from $0.78 in Q3 2025 but up from $0.49 in Q4 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company's operating net income for Q4 2025 was $42.0 million, compared to $35.5 million in Q3 2025 and $20.2 million in Q4 2024. Operating diluted earnings per share were $0.83 for Q4 2025, up from $0.70 in Q3 2025 and $0.52 in Q4 2024 [3]. - The net interest margin widened by 16 basis points to 3.27% in Q4 2025, benefiting from a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing deposits and stable loan portfolio yields [5][7]. - Total assets increased to $14.0 billion as of December 31, 2025, from $9.9 billion a year earlier, primarily due to the merger with First of Long Island Corporation [16][17]. Income and Expenses - Noninterest income for Q4 2025 was $6.0 million, down from $19.4 million in Q3 2025, largely due to nonrecurring benefits from the employee retention tax credit and pension plan curtailment gains recognized in the previous quarter [10]. - Noninterest expenses decreased to $56.9 million in Q4 2025 from $58.7 million in Q3 2025, attributed to lower merger expenses and employee benefits [11]. Asset Quality - The provision for credit losses was $2.3 million in Q4 2025, down from $5.5 million in Q3 2025, reflecting improved asset quality and lower loss drivers [13]. - Nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets were 0.33% as of December 31, 2025, compared to 0.58% a year earlier, indicating improved asset quality [14]. Dividends - The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.18 per share on common stock, payable on March 2, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 13, 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Options markets are indicating significant post-earnings volatility for several stocks, particularly regional banks, with expectations of price swings being amplified by the Federal Reserve's policy decision [1][2]. Group 1: Implied Moves and Earnings Reports - Options markets are pricing in double-digit to near-50% post-earnings swings for a group of regional banks [2]. - Ten stocks are highlighted with implied moves of approximately 30% or more ahead of their earnings reports this week [3]. - Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. is expected to have the highest implied move at 48.48%, with earnings per share projected at 15 cents and revenue at $57.51 million [5][6]. - First Financial Bancorp follows closely with a 47.50% implied move, expecting earnings per share of 56 cents and revenue of $245.83 million [5][6]. - Other notable stocks include Provident Financial Services, Inc. (39.22% implied move), First BanCorp (39.09% implied move), and West Bancorporation, Inc. (35.92% implied move) [5][6]. Group 2: Specific Stock Details - Beacon Financial Corp. anticipates earnings per share of 79 cents and revenue of $224.81 million, with an implied move of 29.48% [5]. - ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. expects earnings per share of 73 cents and revenue of $110.15 million, with an implied move of 29.51% [5]. - High Tide Inc., the only non-bank on the list, is set to report earnings per share of $0.01 and revenue of $114.95 million, with an implied move of 30.12% [5]. - Primis Financial Corp. is projected to have earnings per share of $1.10 and revenue of $34.98 million, with an implied move of 31.17% [5]. - Hope Bancorp, Inc. expects earnings per share of 26 cents and revenue of $142.91 million, with an implied move of 32.94% [5].