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CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS ADVISORY Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements relating to Canadian Natural Resources Limited (the "Company") in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference constitute forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words "b ...

Core Insights - Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) reported a revenue of $6.29 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $0.51, down from $0.64 a year ago, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.44 by 15.91% [1] Financial Performance - The reported revenue of $6.29 billion slightly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.28 billion, resulting in a surprise of +0.09% [1] - The company’s stock has returned -2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +1.2% [3] Production Metrics - Total average daily production was 1,420,358 BOE/D, below the analyst estimate of 1,467,614 BOE/D [4] - Oil & liquids average daily production was 1,019,149 BBL/D, compared to the estimate of 1,051,255 BBL/D [4] - Natural gas average daily production was 2,407 million cubic feet per day, slightly below the estimate of 2,427.79 million cubic feet per day [4] - Thermal In Situ Oil production was 274.79 thousand barrels per day, compared to the estimate of 283.52 thousand barrels per day [4] - Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production was 463.81 thousand barrels per day, below the estimate of 486.95 thousand barrels per day [4] - North Sea Oil production was 7.76 thousand barrels per day, significantly lower than the estimate of 11.92 thousand barrels per day [4] - Offshore Africa Oil production was 1.77 thousand barrels per day, compared to the estimate of 7.21 thousand barrels per day [4] - North America Natural Gas production was 2,398 Mcf/D, below the estimate of 2,452.11 Mcf/D [4]

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Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, driven by effective capital allocation, operational efficiencies, and successful acquisitions, which collectively enhance shareholder value. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, CNRL generated adjusted net earnings of approximately $1.5 billion or $0.71 per share, with adjusted funds flow of $3.3 billion or $1.56 per share [7][9][12] - The company returned approximately $1.6 billion to shareholders in Q2 2025, including $1.2 billion in dividends and $0.4 billion in share repurchases [7][15] - For the first half of 2025, net earnings totaled approximately $4.9 billion, reflecting a significant increase from $2.7 billion in the same period of 2024 [9][12] Production and Operations - CNRL's total production in Q2 2025 was approximately 1,420,358 BOE/d, a 10% increase from Q2 2024 levels, despite a production reduction of about 120,000 bbl/d due to a planned turnaround at the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) [3][13] - Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production averaged 463,808 bbl/d in Q2 2025, a 13% increase from Q2 2024, attributed to successful operational enhancements [29][32] - The company achieved high upgrader utilization of 106% in July 2025, with expectations for continued strong operating results in the second half of 2025 [2][32] Capital Allocation and Acquisitions - CNRL successfully completed a planned turnaround at AOSP five days ahead of schedule and on budget, enhancing production reliability [2][3] - The company closed an acquisition of liquids-rich Montney assets for approximately $750 million, adding about 32,000 BOE/d to production [7][17] - CNRL's business model allows for a top-tier WTI breakeven in the low to mid-US$40 per barrel range, ensuring sufficient cash flow to cover maintenance capital and dividends [8][9] Cost Management - Operating costs in the Duvernay assets averaged $8.43/BOE in Q2 2025, a decrease of 11% from Q1 2025 levels, reflecting continuous improvement efforts [5][27] - The company achieved strong capital efficiencies in its drilling programs, targeting to drill 182 net primary heavy crude oil multilateral wells in 2025, an increase of 26 wells from the original budget [4][24] Market Conditions - The WTI benchmark price averaged US$63.71/bbl in Q2 2025, reflecting a decrease from previous quarters due to weaker global demand and increased OPEC+ output [33][36] - The SCO price averaged US$64.69/bbl in Q2 2025, representing a premium to WTI pricing, which improved compared to previous quarters [33][36]

This is depicted in the chart below: Key Takeaways Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is set to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share on revenues of $6.28 billion. Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ's performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company's performance in the last reported quarter. Highlights of CNQ's Q1 Earnings & Surprise History In t ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.44 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.3%, with revenues projected at $6.28 billion, down 5.1% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for CNQ is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +4.89%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNQ exceeded the expected earnings of $0.73 per share by delivering $0.81, resulting in a surprise of +10.96%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13][14]. Conclusion - Canadian Natural Resources is positioned as a strong candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [17].

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