Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a stable production profile throughout the year, with first-half capital expenditures (CapEx) expected to account for about 60% of the total annual CapEx [9] - Current production levels are generating approximately $30 million annually under the proposed guidance for the 45Z program [11] - The average drilling cost for Utica wells is approximately $1,700 per foot, with performance aligned with expectations [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The RNG business line is experiencing stable pricing in the PA Tier 1 REC market, with a long-term bullish outlook contingent on increased renewable energy contributions to the grid [10] - Coal mine methane volumes have seen a modest year-over-year decline, primarily driven by underlying mining activity, with expectations of stability moving forward [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is currently over 60% hedged for 2027, targeting a weighted average NYMEX price of about $4, which is favorable for business performance [33][34] - The company is not seeing significant price activity beyond February contracts, which influences their decision-making regarding increased frac activity [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining production levels while being responsive to material changes in gas prices, with a cautious approach to increasing activity based on long-term demand visibility [39] - There is an emphasis on the importance of infrastructure projects and AI demand for future growth, although current production remains at maintenance levels due to regulatory constraints [39][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in operational preparedness during extreme cold weather events, indicating no expected disruptions to operations or volumes [19] - The company is optimistic about the deep Utica program, with ongoing evaluations of well spacing and performance [17] Other Important Information - The company has internalized and adopted the AutoSep technology, which is expected to provide cost savings and environmental benefits, although it has not yet materially impacted financial results [21] - The company is planning to provide updated acreage counts and inventory runway details by the end of Q1 [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about capital and TIL program translating to production profile - Management indicated that first-half CapEx would be about 60% of the total, allowing flexibility for potential acceleration in the second half [9] Question: Outlook on RNG business line and AEC pricing - Management noted that the PA Tier 1 REC market has stabilized, with long-term pricing expected to improve as renewable energy standards tighten [10] Question: Clarification on Utica program size and timing - Management clarified that the smaller program size is due to timing, with confidence in the deep Utica program and plans for future fracking activity [16][17] Question: Expectations for operational disruptions due to weather - Management confirmed that they do not expect any disruptions, as the team has been well-prepared [19] Question: Update on new tech business and AutoSep - Management reported that AutoSep technology has been adopted internally, with positive early results, but no material financial impact yet [21] Question: Hedging strategy for 2027 - Management stated they are over 60% hedged for 2027, targeting a favorable NYMEX price [33][34] Question: Incremental takeaway and infrastructure projects - Management noted that while some low-hanging fruit has been taken, there are still proposed projects that need approval, and current production remains at maintenance levels [42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a stable production profile throughout the year, with first-half capital expenditures (Capex) expected to account for about 60% of the total annual Capex [9] - Current production levels are generating approximately $30 million annually under the proposed guidance for the 45Z program [11] - The average drilling cost for Utica wells is approximately $1,700 per foot, with performance aligned with expectations [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The RMG business line has seen stable pricing in the PA Tier 1 REC market, with expectations for future price increases tied to stricter renewable energy standards [10] - The company is completing about 5 Utica laterals this year, indicating confidence in the Utica program despite a lower number of turn-in-lines than expected [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coal mine methane volumes have experienced a modest year-over-year decline, primarily driven by underlying mining activity [30] - The company is approximately 60% hedged for 2027, targeting a weighted average NYMEX price of about $4, which is favorable for business performance [32][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining production levels while being responsive to material changes in gas prices, with plans to potentially add frac activity in the second half of 2026 [25][26] - Long-term strategies involve waiting for infrastructure and demand projects to materialize before increasing production volumes [40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in operational preparedness during extreme cold weather events, indicating no expected disruptions to operations or volumes [19] - The company is cautious about increasing production without clear visibility on future gas prices, emphasizing a long-term approach rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations [39] Other Important Information - The company is exploring new technologies, such as AutoStep, which has been adopted for flowbacks, but currently does not contribute materially to financial results [21] - The company has a remaining inventory of approximately 40,000-50,000 acres in the core Southwest PA Marcellus area, which is expected to last into the next decade [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about capital and production profile - Management indicated that first-half Capex would be about 60% of the total, allowing flexibility for potential acceleration in the second half [9] Question: Outlook on RMG business line pricing - Management noted that the PA Tier 1 REC market has stabilized, with future price increases dependent on stricter renewable energy standards [10] Question: Clarification on Utica program size - Management clarified that the smaller program size is due to timing, with confidence in the Utica program remaining strong [17] Question: Expectations for operational disruptions due to weather - Management confirmed that they do not expect any disruptions, as preparations have been made [19] Question: Update on new technology business - Management stated that while AutoStep technology is being adopted, it has not yet materially impacted financial results [21] Question: Hedging strategy for 2027 - Management confirmed they are approximately 60% hedged for 2027, targeting a favorable NYMEX price [32][34] Question: Incremental takeaway and infrastructure projects - Management noted that while some projects are proposed, there is currently no material movement off maintenance production levels [42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has not provided specific financial data or key metrics changes in the call [2][3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The capital expenditure (Capex) for the first half of the year is expected to be about 60% of the total annual Capex, with production remaining flat throughout the year [10] - The RMG business line's pricing outlook is stable, with a long-term expectation for prices to increase as renewable energy standards tighten [11] - Current production levels for the 45Z initiative are generating about $30 million annually, with potential adjustments pending final guidance [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The coal mine methane volumes have seen a modest year-over-year decline, primarily driven by mining activity at specific sites [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining production levels while being responsive to changes in gas prices, with plans to potentially add frac activity in the second half of 2026 [24][38] - There is a strategic emphasis on long-term demand growth, particularly in relation to new infrastructure and power projects, rather than short-term production increases [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management has expressed confidence in their operational preparedness for extreme weather events, indicating no expected disruptions to operations or volumes [19] - The company is optimistic about the Utica program, clarifying that the current lower number of turn-in-lines is a timing issue rather than a lack of confidence in the project [16][17] Other Important Information - The company is currently over 60% hedged for 2027, targeting an 80% hedge as they approach that year [30][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about capital and production profile - The company expects first-half Capex to be about 60% of the total, with a flat production profile throughout the year, allowing flexibility for potential acceleration in the second half [10] Question: Outlook on RMG business line pricing - The RMG pricing has stabilized, with long-term expectations for increases tied to renewable energy standards [11] Question: Clarification on Utica program size - The smaller program size is attributed to timing, with confidence in the Utica program remaining strong [16][17] Question: Impact of weather on operations - Management does not anticipate any disruptions from weather events, as preparations have been made [19] Question: Update on new technology business - The AutoStep technology has been adopted internally, with expectations for increased adoption in 2026, though it has not yet materially impacted financials [21] Question: Hedging strategy for 2027 - The company aims to be approximately 80% hedged for 2027, with a current average NYMEX price of about $4 [30][31]

Q4 2025 Update January 29, 2026 Q4 2025 Highlights "The fourth quarter represented our 24th consecutive quarter of free cash flow generation, highlighting our Sustainable Business Model and consistent execution that are the cornerstones of growing our long-term per share value," commented Alan Shepard, President & CEO. "We continue to believe that our share repurchase program represents a compelling capital allocation opportunity, and as such, we are announcing an additional $2 billion share repurchase auth ...

分组1 - CNX Resources Corporation reported quarterly earnings of $0.68 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.40 per share, and showing an increase from $0.57 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +70.00% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $419 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.39%, and up from $386 million in the previous year [2] - Over the last four quarters, CNX Resources has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped revenue estimates two times [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market with a loss of about 0.1% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.58 on revenues of $496.8 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.16 on revenues of $1.83 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the bottom 3% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for the sector [8]

Revenue and Income - Q4 2025 total revenue and other operating income reached $610.5 million, a 346.5% increase compared to Q4 2024's $136.6 million[10] - The company reported a net income of $196.3 million in Q4 2025, compared to a net loss of $144.6 million in Q4 2024[10] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $196,253 thousand, compared to a net loss of $144,624 thousand in Q4 2024, marking a significant turnaround[13] - Cash flows from operating activities for YTD 2025 totaled $1,028,957 thousand, an increase from $268,797 thousand in YTD 2024[13] - Net income for Q4-2025 was $196 million, a decrease of 3% from Q3-2025's $202 million, while YTD-2025 net income reached $633 million compared to a loss of $145 million in Q4-2024[31] Production and Sales - Natural gas, NGL, and oil revenue for Q4 2025 was $476.6 million, up 30.5% from $364.4 million in Q4 2024[10] - Average daily production in Q4 2025 was 1,654.8 MMcfe, a 7.5% decrease from 1,753.3 MMcfe in Q3 2025[3] - Total production volumes for Q4 2025 were 152.3 Bcfe, down 5.0% from 161.3 Bcfe in Q3 2025[3] - CNX Resources has projected a total production guidance of 629.0 Bcfe for the full year 2025[3] - The average sales price for Natural Gas in Q4-2025 was $3.12, up from $2.41 in Q4-2024, representing a 29.5% increase year-over-year[16] Expenses and Liabilities - Total operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $341.4 million, slightly up from $340.9 million in Q3 2025[10] - Total current liabilities rose to $1,124,375 thousand as of December 31, 2025, compared to $1,122,578 thousand a year earlier, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2%[12] - Long-term debt decreased to $2,213,264 thousand from $2,286,855 thousand in the previous quarter, indicating a reduction of 3.2%[12] - The company incurred interest expenses of $42 million in Q4-2025, consistent with Q3-2025, and total interest expenses for YTD-2025 were $170 million[31] Cash Flow and Investments - The company reported a net cash used in investing activities of $164,643 thousand in Q4 2025, compared to $70,222 thousand in Q4 2024, indicating increased investment activity[13] - Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $132 million, a decrease from $226 million in Q3 2025, with a total of $646 million for the year[44] - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $174,414 thousand, significantly higher than $105,495 thousand in Q4 2024, showing an increase of 65.3%[13] - Capital expenditures in Q4 2025 amounted to $174 million, significantly higher than $76 million in Q3 2025, leading to a total of $495 million for the year[44] Equity and Assets - Total assets increased to $9,094,446 thousand as of December 31, 2025, up from $8,511,903 thousand a year earlier, representing a growth of 6.8%[12] - Total stockholders' equity increased to $4,337,016 thousand as of December 31, 2025, up from $4,098,030 thousand a year earlier, reflecting a growth of 5.8%[12] Market and Pricing - The average price for NYMEX hedges in Q1 2026 is projected at $3.68 per Mcf, with total volumes hedged at 111.9 Bcf[5] - The realized price for natural gas sold was $3.51 per MMBtu, with a weighted average basis of ($0.56) as of 2026E[14] - The average realized price for NGLs in 2026 is projected to be around $20.75 per barrel[21] - The average sales price of oil and condensate in Q4-2025 was $8.83, down from $9.59 in Q4-2024[16] Operational Efficiency - The average cash margin before DD&A for Q4-2025 was $1.95, compared to $1.85 in Q4-2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency[16] - The company reported an operating margin of 28% for Q4-2025, down from 42% in Q3-2025, with an average operating margin of 35% for YTD-2025[34] - Cash operating margin for Q4-2025 was 60%, a decrease from 62% in Q3-2025, with an average cash operating margin of 63% for YTD-2025[36] Future Guidance - Adjusted EBITDAX guidance for 2026 is projected between $1,310 million and $1,360 million[21] - Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2026 is expected to be approximately $550 million, translating to about $3.55 per share based on outstanding shares[21][22] - Production Volumes for 2026 are estimated to be between 605 Bcfe and 620 Bcfe, with liquids making up approximately 7% to 8%[21] - The company hedged approximately 81% of its natural gas production for 2026[21] Risk Factors - The company has outlined various risk factors that could impact future performance, including pricing volatility and economic conditions[46]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, indicating a looming crisis in power supply as AI continues to grow [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is presented as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for supporting the increasing energy needs of AI data centers [3][7] - This company is characterized as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, benefiting from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI advancements [4][5] Market Position - The company is noted for its unique position in the market, being debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, which is approximately one-third of its market capitalization [8] - It also has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related venture, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities in the AI sector [9][10] Strategic Advantages - The company is involved in large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects across various energy sectors, including nuclear energy, which is crucial for America's future power strategy [7][14] - The current political climate, particularly the push for onshoring and increased U.S. LNG exports, positions this company favorably to capitalize on these trends [6][14] Future Outlook - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, making investments in AI a strategic move for future growth [12] - The potential for significant returns is emphasized, with projections suggesting over 100% upside within the next 12 to 24 months [15][19]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for CNX Resources Corporation, despite an expected increase in revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - CNX Resources is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.33 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 42.1%. Revenues are expected to reach $392.01 million, which is a 1.6% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 8.76% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP for CNX Resources is +23.77%, suggesting a more optimistic outlook from analysts compared to the consensus estimate. However, the company holds a Zacks Rank of 5, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNX Resources exceeded the consensus EPS estimate by 32.43%, having beaten estimates in all four of the previous quarters [13][14]. Industry Context - In the broader industry context, Murphy Oil is expected to report a loss of $0.07 per share, marking a significant year-over-year decline of 120%, with revenues projected at $628.51 million, down 6.3% from the previous year [18][19].

Group 1 - Barclays downgraded Apache Corporation (APA.US) and Consol Energy (CNX.US) from "hold" to "sell," setting target prices at $24 and $34 respectively [1] - Despite the downgrade, both stocks saw increases of 4.69% and 1.75% due to an overall rise in the energy sector [1] - Analyst Betty Jiang noted that Apache serves as a typical case reflecting the trend of traditional asset valuations recovering while U.S. shale asset valuations decline [1] Group 2 - Jiang estimates that by 2026, the independent free cash flow yield in the Permian Basin will be only 3.8%, indicating a significant premium compared to larger U.S. pure shale oil companies [1] - Significant gains in natural gas marketing for Apache are expected to substantially decrease, primarily due to expanded takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin and weakening global LNG prices [1] - Consol Energy's stock price aligns closely with the unlevered free cash flow yield of natural gas exploration and production companies, despite its resource inventory having a notably shorter sustainable extraction timeline [2] Group 3 - Barclays restored Western Oil (OXY.US) to a "hold" rating following the successful divestiture by OxyChem, which aids in debt reduction [2] - Jiang expressed a positive outlook for several energy companies, particularly Ovintiv (OVV.US), which has successfully transitioned to focus on the Permian Basin and Montney shale [2] - Confidence in EQT Energy (EQT.US) is noted, highlighting the market's underappreciation of its structural growth potential and margin advantages through midstream business integration [2] - Viper Energy (VNOM.US) is viewed as a quality investment in the Permian Basin, currently at a low valuation [2]

Group 1: Investment Insights - Joe Terranova from Virtus Investment Partners selected Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) due to ongoing market volatility [1] - TD Cowen analyst Bill Katz maintained a Hold rating on Raymond James and increased the price target from $180 to $187 [1] - Stephen Weiss from Short Hills Capital Partners chose SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) as his final trade [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Shannon Saccocia from NB Private Wealth picked iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (NYSE:IYM) as her final trade [2] - Kari Firestone from Aureus Asset Management highlighted CNX Resources Corporation (NYSE:CNX), noting a 10% increase in natural gas prices over the past year [2] - CNX Resources is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 39 cents per share on revenue of $427.49 million [3] Group 3: Price Movements - SPDR Gold Shares increased by 1% on Wednesday [4] - iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF rose by 0.9% during the session [4] - CNX Resources shares declined by 0.8% to close at $35.98 [4] - Raymond James shares increased by 3% to settle at $172.27 [4]