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Good morning Singapore.It's time to grab your coffee, stack some xp, and explore the Hubs before the alpha’s gone.Day 2 of Coinbase House @Token2049 starts now. https://t.co/gBuCPWnzv7 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The current government shutdown is impacting financial stocks, but Coinbase Global is positioned favorably due to its business model and growth potential [1][3][9] Company Overview - Coinbase Global is a leading cryptocurrency exchange operating in over 100 countries, facilitating the trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies [4] - The platform currently holds $425 billion in assets and has a quarterly trading volume of $237 billion [4] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Coinbase reported net revenue of $1.42 billion, an increase from $1.38 billion year-over-year, with net income rising to $1.43 billion from just $36 million a year ago [5] - Revenue has surged nearly 3,000% over the past three years, while net income has increased by 200% during the same period [5] Analyst Sentiment - Among 34 analysts covering Coinbase, half have a strong buy or buy rating, while 15 have a hold rating, with a consensus price target of $371, indicating a 7% short-term upside [7] - The most optimistic analyst has set a price target of $510, suggesting a potential upside of 43% [7] Business Model and Subscription Plan - Coinbase offers a subscription plan called Coinbase One Basic, which provides zero-fee trades for $5 monthly, similar to Robinhood's premium subscription model [8] - The increase in cryptocurrency trading during the government shutdown is expected to benefit Coinbase's stock performance [9]

Economic Indicators - US MBA mortgage applications fell by -12.7% in the week ended September 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing sub-index down -20.6% [1] - The September ISM manufacturing index rose +0.4 to a 7-month high of 49.1, exceeding expectations of 49.0 [6] - The September ADP employment change unexpectedly fell by -32,000, marking the largest decline in 2.5 years, while August was revised lower to -3,000 from +54,000 [5] Market Reactions - Stocks initially moved lower due to the US government shutdown, but later recovered, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs [2][4] - The dollar index fell to a one-week low, while gold prices climbed to a record high amid risk-off sentiment [2] - Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks, with over 22% of S&P 500 companies providing guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to beat analysts' expectations [8] Sector Performance - Pharmaceutical stocks rallied, with AstraZeneca closing up more than +9% and Eli Lilly up more than +8%, driven by hopes from Pfizer's deal with the US government [15] - Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks also saw gains, with Super Micro Computer closing up more than +9% and Micron Technology up more than +8% [16] - Grocery retailers declined after Amazon announced a new private-label food brand, leading to Dollar Tree and Dollar General closing down more than -4% and -3% respectively [22] Upcoming Economic Data - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 225,000, and August factory orders are expected to rise by +1.4% month-over-month [9] - September nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to increase by +51,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% [9]

Initiative Overview - A new basic income pilot program is providing $12,000 in cryptocurrency to low-income New Yorkers [1] - The pilot aims to study how cryptocurrency can alleviate poverty and improve quality of life [1] - The initiative is funded by Coinbase [1] Industry Impact - The pilot program explores the potential of crypto-powered UBI (Universal Basic Income) [1] - The program is being conducted in New York City [1]

🗽 NEW: A new basic income pilot is giving low-income New Yorkers $12K in cryptocurrency to study how to alleviate poverty and improve quality of life.This initiative is funded by Coinbase. https://t.co/1gF5tpTz0i ...

Regulatory Landscape & Advocacy - The Blockchain Association defends the Genius Act, asserting it as settled law and crucial for maintaining US leadership in innovation [1][2] - The Association actively pushes back against large banks' attempts to weaken the Genius Act, which provides legal clarity for stablecoin issuers [2][3] - The Association is running a campaign with a similar narrative to Coinbase, advocating for consumer rewards on stablecoins and countering bank lobbying efforts [9][10] - The Association emphasizes the importance of bipartisan efforts in Congress to achieve comprehensive crypto market structure legislation [15] - The Association highlights the need for regulatory harmonization between the SEC and CFTC to foster innovation and provide market certainty [17][19] Stablecoin Rewards & Banking Concerns - The core concern revolves around banks' apprehension regarding stablecoin rewards potentially leading to a flight of deposits from community banks [4] - The Association argues there's no concrete evidence of stablecoin investments causing a decrease in bank deposits [5] - The Association views the debate over stablecoin rewards as a competitive issue for banks, suggesting they should compete on interest rates [6][7] - Stablecoin holdings offer around 4% in rewards, significantly higher than the less than 1% typically offered by banks on savings accounts [6][7] Clarity Act & Regulatory Clarity - The industry emphasizes that revisiting the Genius Act would remove crucial legal clarity, hindering innovation and potentially pushing it overseas [12][13] - The industry hopes the Clarity Act will provide clear guidelines on when digital assets are considered securities under SEC jurisdiction versus commodities under CFTC jurisdiction [22][23] - The industry believes the CFTC is well-equipped to oversee digital assets, citing their experience with Bitcoin futures and monitoring trading activities [25][26]

🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 700 #BTC (82,280,308 USD) transferred from Coinbase Institutional to unknown wallethttps://t.co/Pp7BWjXg7T ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global, Inc. is positioned as a leading digital asset exchange with significant assets and user engagement, and it has received a Buy rating from BTIG with a price forecast of $410 based on its growth potential in the digital asset ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth Prospects - Coinbase has $404 billion in assets on its platform and 8.4 million monthly transacting users as of fiscal year 2024 [1]. - The price forecast is based on a 25x multiple of the estimated enterprise value-to-EBITDA for fiscal year 2027, reflecting the company's strong market position [2]. - Analysts argue that Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from the overall adoption of cryptocurrency through its secure trading platform and its role as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized finance [3]. Group 2: Revenue Diversification and Growth Opportunities - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with retail transaction revenue now constituting approximately half of the business, down from over 70% in fiscal year 2022 [6]. - Subscription and services revenue has grown to account for around 40% of total revenue, enhancing the business's resilience [6]. - Major growth opportunities identified include the scaling derivatives business, the development of the Base App, and the long-term runway for stablecoin adoption, particularly USDC [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Partnerships - The growth of the derivatives market is seen as a significant driver for institutional transaction take-rates, with 75% of global crypto trading volume derived from derivatives [7]. - Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit is viewed as a strategic move to capture the derivatives market internationally and introduce options trading to U.S. retail customers [7]. - The Base App is positioned as a "Web3 super-app," potentially generating new revenue streams through sequencer fees [8]. - The partnership with Circle Internet Group regarding USDC is expected to generate sustainable revenue exceeding $1 billion annually, with significant growth potential in stablecoin adoption [9]. Group 4: Market Performance - At the time of publication, Coinbase Global shares were up 2.69% at $346.58, trading within a 52-week range of $142.58 to $444.64 [10].