Company Overview - CSX is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, with a projected EPS of $0.42, reflecting a decrease of 14.3% compared to the previous year [3] - Revenues for the quarter are anticipated to be $3.59 billion, down 3.1% from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on July 23, and the actual results will significantly influence the stock price [2] - A positive surprise in earnings could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could result in a decline [2] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.45% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4] - CSX currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.21%, suggesting that the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CSX was expected to post earnings of $0.37 per share but only achieved $0.34, resulting in a surprise of -8.11% [13] - Over the past four quarters, CSX has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14] Industry Context - In the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry, Canadian National (CNI) is expected to report earnings of $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.5% [18] - CNI's revenue is projected to be $3.15 billion, down 0.5% from the previous year [18]

Core Insights - CSX Corporation is facing significant challenges including rising expenses, weak liquidity, and declining demand, making it an unattractive investment option [1] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSX's current-quarter earnings has been revised downward by 16.3% over the past 90 days, with a 9.8% decrease for the current year [2] - CSX's share price has increased by only 18.6% in the past 90 days, compared to a 28.8% growth in the transportation-rail industry [3] Earnings and Liquidity - CSX has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has a history of disappointing earnings surprises, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters with an average miss of 3.13% [5] - Operating expenses have risen from $8.8 billion in 2022 to $9.1 billion in 2023, and are projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2024, with a 1.6% increase in Q1 2025 [6][9] - The current ratio has declined from 1.73 in 2021 to 0.88 in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing liquidity pressures [7][8] Market Challenges - Coal revenues have decreased by 27% year over year, with a 9% drop in volumes in Q1 2025, exacerbated by rail network issues such as crew shortages and service disruptions [9] - CSX is facing elevated capital expenditures projected at $2.5 billion for 2025, adding to financial strain [9]

Group 1 - CSX Corp. will release its second quarter financial and operating results on July 23, 2025, after market close [1] - A conference call and live webcast will follow the results announcement at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time [1] - Participants can join the teleconference by dialing specific numbers, with a passcode required for access [2] Group 2 - CSX is a premier transportation company based in Jacksonville, Florida, providing rail, intermodal, and rail-to-truck transload services [3] - The company has been integral to the economic expansion and industrial development of the United States for nearly 200 years [3] - CSX's network connects major metropolitan areas in the eastern U.S. and links over 240 short-line railroads and more than 70 ports [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Global Logistics - **Trade Policy Instability**: The current trade policy landscape is characterized by significant instability, with potential conflicts in the Middle East affecting logistics and transshipment hubs. Multinationals and logistics partners are forced to adapt continuously [1][4] - **Q1 Volume Performance**: Strong Q1 volumes were reported, with ocean volumes increasing by 6% year-over-year (YoY) in April. However, there are concerns about potential risks to trade volumes in the second half of the year [1][3] - **Airfreight Revenue Growth**: The international airfreight industry is experiencing low single-digit revenue growth, with recent data indicating a slight decline in yields due to lower fuel surcharges [1][5] Key Metrics and Trends - **Global Trade Volumes**: Global trade volumes rose by 5.9% YoY in March, primarily driven by a 30% increase in US imports, likely due to demand pull forward ahead of tariff threats [2] - **Spot Rates**: Spot rates for ocean freight have spiked significantly, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) up by 41% and the World Container Index (WCI) up by 59% since mid-May [3] - **PMI Indicators**: Recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows a decline in China (-2.1 points to 48.3), while the US stabilized and Europe improved [2] Company-Specific Insights DSV - **Rating**: Outperform, Target Price (TP) DKK 1,650.00 - **Acquisition of DB Schenker**: DSV is expected to become the largest freight forwarder post-acquisition, with anticipated EPS of DKK 100+ by 2028 [9] DHL - **Rating**: Outperform, TP €43.00 - **Earnings Exposure**: Approximately 80% of EBIT is tied to e-commerce and world trade, with a significant portion coming from the Express division [10] Kuehne+Nagel - **Rating**: Market-Perform, TP CHF 190.00 - **Performance Issues**: The company has underperformed peers in volume growth, attributed to deep headcount reductions impacting commercial capabilities [11][12] A.P. Moller - Maersk - **Rating**: Underperform, TP DKK 9,350.00 - **Challenges in Container Shipping**: Spot rates are down approximately 40% year-to-date, with expectations of declining volumes and a challenging supply-demand balance [13] UPS - **Rating**: Outperform, TP $133.00 - **Cost Savings Initiatives**: UPS is targeting $3.5 billion in cost savings through restructuring, which includes significant workforce reductions [24] FedEx - **Rating**: Market-Perform, TP $249.00 - **Network Integration Risks**: The company faces challenges due to policy uncertainty and complex network integration, which may impact earnings [25] Investment Implications - **European Logistics**: DSV and DHL are rated as Outperform, while Kuehne+Nagel and Maersk are rated as Market-Perform and Underperform, respectively [8] - **North American Logistics**: UPS is rated as Outperform, while FedEx is rated as Market-Perform [8] Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East may complicate logistics and trade routes, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz and key ports like Jebel Ali [4] - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious outlook on companies like Kuehne+Nagel and CSX due to execution challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties [12][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and metrics from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the global logistics industry and specific company performances.

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Key Takeaways CSX finalized a five-year labor agreement with BLET, covering 3,400 locomotive engineers. The deal mirrors prior agreements with 13 unions, now covering 75% of CSX's unionized workforce. CSX continues talks with SMART-TD, aiming to unify its labor structure under a single-system agreement.CSX’s (CSX) successful ratification of a five-year labor agreement with the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (“BLET”) marks a pivotal achievement in its labor relations strategy. Covering ap ...

CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: CSX ) has a long history of ups and downs , but it is still very important for the eastern United States. CSX owns 20,000 miles of tracks that transport everythingHi there! I’m Narek, and I’ve been in the investment world for over six years. I started out as an equity analyst at European banks, digging into reports and learning how to spot value in the markets. I’ve worked across sectors — from telecom to industry — and found that behind every financial statement is a real story. I ...

Core Points - CSX Corporation announced the ratification of a five-year collective bargaining agreement by employees represented by the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET), covering approximately 3,400 locomotive engineers, marking a significant milestone as the first ratification reached by a Class I freight railroad with BLET [1][2] - The ratified agreement includes general wage increases and health and welfare improvements, aligning with agreements CSX has reached with 13 other unions [2] - Locomotive engineers constitute about 20% of CSX's frontline workforce, and nearly 75% of CSX's unionized workers are now covered by new agreements reached in the last 10 months, with ongoing negotiations with the remaining major workgroup, trainmen/conductors represented by SMART-TD [3] Company Overview - CSX, based in Jacksonville, Florida, is a leading transportation company providing rail, intermodal, and rail-to-truck transload services across various markets, including energy, industrial, construction, agricultural, and consumer products [4] - The company has played a critical role in the economic expansion and industrial development of the nation for nearly 200 years, connecting major metropolitan areas in the eastern United States and linking over 240 short-line railroads and more than 70 ports with population centers and farming towns [4]

Core Viewpoint - CSX Corporation is facing multiple challenges that have negatively impacted its investment appeal, including downward earnings revisions, poor stock performance, and operational issues [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-quarter earnings has decreased by 8.8% over the past 90 days, while the estimate for the current year has been revised down by 9.8%, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, CSX's earnings are expected to decline by 16.3% year over year, and for the full year 2025, a decline of 9.8% is anticipated [7]. Stock Performance - CSX shares have lost 14.2% in value over the past six months, significantly underperforming the transportation-rail industry, which saw a decline of 6.5% [2]. Zacks Rank and Style Score - CSX currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has a Value Score of D, reflecting its unattractiveness as an investment option [6]. Earnings Surprise History - The company has a disappointing earnings surprise history, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average miss of 3.13% [6]. Revenue Challenges - The soft coal market is a primary factor hurting CSX's prospects, with coal revenues falling by 27% year over year in Q1 2025 and coal volumes decreasing by 9% year over year [7]. Operational Issues - CSX is facing significant rail network challenges, including locomotive and crew shortages, which are likely to adversely affect service levels and operational efficiency [8]. Capital Expenditures - Elevated capital expenditures are a concern, with management expecting capex to be approximately $2.5 billion in 2025, adding to the company's financial pressures [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation and logistics industry Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in U.S. imports, with a 6.1% week-over-week increase as of May 18, outperforming seasonal expectations by 980 basis points and showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Spot rates for truckload transportation have surged, with dry van rates increasing by 6.1% week-over-week, outperforming historical averages [3] - There are concerns regarding potential freight demand impacts due to tariffs, with expectations of a flat outlook for dry van spot rates in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Import & Congestion Monitor - Container bookings from China to the U.S. are at five-year lows, down 27% compared to 2023, indicating subdued future demand [2] - The report notes a recovery in container imports at the Port of LA/LB, which increased by 24% week-over-week [2] Truckload and Rail Data - Spot rates for dry van, reefers, and flatbed have all increased week-over-week, with dry van rates now 4% higher year-over-year [3] - The dry van load-to-truck ratio increased by 57% week-over-week, indicating a tightening market [6] - Rail management teams express skepticism about the feasibility of transcontinental mergers due to regulatory barriers [7] Airfreight & Surface Transportation - Airfreight rates have been monitored closely due to tariff implications, with significant declines observed in key freight lanes, particularly the China-U.S. lane, which fell by 6% week-over-week [10] - The overall airfreight market is experiencing broad-based weakness, with all major lanes underperforming seasonal expectations year-to-date [10] Rail Performance - The report card for railroads indicates varying performance levels, with some railroads rated as excellent while others are fair or poor [9] - Regulatory challenges are highlighted as a significant barrier to potential mergers in the rail industry, with environmental impact studies being particularly burdensome [7]